And I-RAN...The Iran Dilemma Part 1

Last fall, I took a class about defense policy. During the months that I was in the class, I learned about different facets of diplomacy and many of the areas that are crucial to national defense. My final assignment for the class was to write a defense memo that was meant for the incoming president. The topic of the memo was to tell the president-elect which country deserves immediate attention upon his entry into office in January. Countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, and North Korea were all worthy choices, but I chose Iran as the biggest threat and country delivering much focus and analysis. Below is that memo. It is a little lengthy, but contains a lot of good information. Some of which has been mentioned in the last few months. Definitely worth a read.

To: President-Elect Barack Obama
From: Michael Covin
Date: December 18, 2008
Attention: Top Defense Policy Threat to the U.S.
Case: The Threat of Iran

President-elect Obama, as 2008 nears a close and you prepare to take office, you have to truly begin to brace yourself for the tasks ahead in your administration. As with every administration through our rich history there were problems and issues here domestically and issues across the globe. The economy is obviously going to take much of your time early on as we look to recover from this growing recession. However, it is my objective to inform you in on what I foresee as your biggest threat in foreign affairs. You, as the next president, have a general understanding of what is out there to address and pay attention to. Most visible is the Iraq War, which has dictated much of the agenda worldwide for the last five years. Nonetheless, there is more than Iraq on the table globally as incidents occurring in Russia, Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, and India cause concern for the normal citizen engaged let alone the President of the United States. Each of these countries has threats and concerns worth your time, but as I will explain Iran should truly be your main concern over four years. Granted there is a war waging in both Iraq and Afghanistan, however, as will be explained Iran can influence what occurs in both those countries among others including the United States possibility. The Middle East has increased as a hot bed of activity and it would seem that Iran has become the red hot center that needs addressing and especially its leader. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad since being elected in 2005 is truly a major threat to the U.S., Iraq and the Middle East, and Israel. Iran is growing stronger and it will up to your administration to ensure that things do not get out of hand and a nuclear war is launched.

You are probably asking yourself, what separates Iran as a threat over other countries in the world that can be perceived threats? Well, unlike many of those other countries on our radar, we had not made the same time of progress diplomatically with the current president of Iran. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came into power in 2005 and since then has been nothing but a suspect in terms of safeguarding the U.S. and our allies and interests abroad. Ahmadinejad is not exactly the most liked leader out there and he does not bend much for others. For your reading purposes, I would like to include three quotes that I find meaningful to why Iran should be the U.S. top concern abroad. In a report from the House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence from 2006, Ahmadinejad stated his true opinions on the U.S. and his viewpoints. Ahmadinejad stated a couple years ago, “The annihilation of the Zionist regime will come…Israel must be wiped off the map…And God willing, with the force of God behind it, we shall soon experience a world without the United States and Zionism. “ He also said, “They have invented a myth that Jews were massacred and place this above God, religions and the prophets.” Lastly, he stated, “I officially announce that Iran has joined counties with nuclear technology.” In these short quotes, you can obviously get an idea of where Ahmadinejad stands and why if allowed become another strong dictator in the annals of history who can be seen as doing more bad than good for humankind.

The threats and words of Ahmadinejad can and may be followed by actions if the United States is not on guard. According to the Staff Report of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy back in 2006, there are several addition things to keep in mind about Iran. Iran has conducted a clandestine uranium enrichment program for about the last twenty years and this goes against the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards agreement they had agreed to. So, despite any claims from Ahmadinejad or anyone else in power in Iran, they are displaying that are seeking nuclear weapons. Continuing from this, Iran in all likelihood has done offensive chemical weapons research and development capability and an offensive biological weapons program. In addition, the threat grows with the fact that Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East and Tehran, the capital, may seek integration of nuclear weapons into its ballistic missiles. This last point is increased with knowledge of Iran providing funding, training, weapons, rockets, and any other support to terrorist groups residing in places like Lebanon and Palestinian Territories. Lastly, parts of Iran’s national security apparatus actively support the insurgency in Iraq.

Essentially, the main thing that should the United States is the fact that Iran sponsors terror. One of the biggest aspects of the Bush administration has been the war on terror. Ahmadinejad does not have the best background in terms of someone the United States would negotiate normally with, but the United States still needs to be wary of the capabilities that Iran may possess and utilize. Leading off of that thought comes the true likelihood that Iran is looking to stock pile nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 under the premise that the country had weapons of mass destruction. However, unbeknownst to the United States, it was Iran right step door that should have been looked at harder. Which brings me to my next point, Iran supports insurgency in Iraq, which would threaten any progress made by the United States there over the last five years. The Iranian threat would not be anything new to the United States, as thirty years ago; President Jimmy Carter was dealing with Ayatollah Khomeini. Iran has become a much more serious threat since 2005 when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office. Since his election, he has made public threats against the United States and Israel. Creating uncertainty and worry is the fact that Hezbollah, a terrorist group supported by Iran, invaded Israel. The instability of the Middle East could very well be shaped by the actions of Iran and what the United States decides to do about it.

I have covered the ways that Iran is a threat, possibility in my opinion the biggest national security threat to face the new administration. How then would a nuclear-armed Iran pose a serious threat to the United States and its allies? There are three ways specifically in addition to the ways in which Iran and its leader are a threat to the United States and anyone close to us. The first point or way they pose that serious threat is a nuclear-armed Iran would likely encourage the leadership in Tehran to advance its ambitions and activities in and out of the region. These ambitions would greatly threaten the stability and security of anyone in that part of the world whom we value as allies especially Israel or Iraq. The second point to mention regarding the threat that Iran inspires is if Iran becomes dependent on nuclear weapons and its arsenal as a form of retaliation they may be inclined to attack or use force against United States forces and allies in the region, the Middle East and beyond, Europe, and Asia. Nuclear weapons would cause Iran to deter from conventional force. The final and third point to make is Iran with nuclear weapons would almost certainly make regional tensions worse. Israel, especially, would feel the pressure of a nuclear-powered Iran nearby like that.

The threat that above the others when it comes to Iran truly is the nuclear capability that Iran is growing toward with a president whom may make choices that could involve those weapons. Of all the countries in the Middle East, Iran has the biggest ballistic missile inventory.
Another factor that would cause concern about Iran is its proximity to Iraq. Iran has had extensive involvement and can be seen as to United States interest there in addition to the U.S. troops there. Iran is assisting Shia militant groups to attack Coalition forces and is affecting the workings of Iraqi politics. Iran has in their best interest a weak and Shia-dominated Iraq that is incapable of posing a threat to Iran. Iran, if not watched carefully, will look to gain leverage with many political leaders, parties and organizations in the current Iraqi political system. So, what then must the United States do and look at this issue? The United States should gather exactly what Iran’s intentions are in Iraq. Also, the United States must determine what has already occurred. They may have been there and working to spread their brand of terrorism to a region the United States is looking to aid. Tehran is working close with Shia militants or has at least in the past and that situation is one area of this issue that needs to be analyzed.

Iraq is in danger due to Iran, but so is Israel, a nation that does not on paper have links to terrorism. There have been Hezbollah attacks and over several years, Iran has used terrorism against Israel as a means of projecting power. This region is one of the most sensitive in the Middle East as Israel and Palestine have been in talks in terms of agreeing to a peace agreement. By Iran invading or attacking Israel, it affects the country’s status. The big part of the puzzle for this area is the fact that Iran and its Hezbollah connections can essentially evolve the country’s terrorist natures and havens to both Iraq and Israel. If necessary, now it is almost certain that Iran has nuclear weapons; they may be tempted to use them to protect what they see as theirs for the taking or deter the United States from intervening in the area. Iran would probably not hesitate to unleash its terrorist capabilities against the United States or anyone else who objects to their views. This type of attitude of being unstable and at times non-agreeable makes Ahmadinejad a true threat to the United States as Iran’s president.

Iran’s Ahmadinejad has made these threats against the United States and one of its allies, Israel. To make matters direr, there have been advances in the progress of the Iranian nuclear weapons program, a growing support for terror and its associates, and a tendency to show resistance toward a possible nuclear program. These advances on the behalf of Ahmadinejad should be something that should concern the United States greatly in terms of watching for any security threats that may arise involving Iran. To make matters even worse in 2006, if there was any doubt that Iran may be a possible threat; Iran attacked Israel with rockets. This mission was carried about by Hezbollah, a terrorist group with connections to Iran and was given the rockets by Iran to carry out the mission against Israel.

In January 2008, President Bush met in Jerusalem with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. At their meeting, President Bush at a time when tensions were thin between Ahmadinejad and himself gave his opinion on the Iranian president. As part of their war of words at the time, Bush stated in his view that Iran is a major threat to world peace. This statement stems from the fact that Iran’s leader does not see eye to eye with the current leadership in America. Ahmadinejad has blamed and expressed much of what is wrong in the world as being the fault of Americans and their attitudes and actions. He has been noted recently as pointing the blame for the growing world problems like poverty and war on the mismanagement by Americans in terms of global affairs. Much of the problems that occur that lead to a security issue stem from the general dislike that Ahmadinejad has. He goes as far as to say Americans would probably if they voiced their opinions not always go along with the ways of the country. Also he lashes out at the way that the U.S. has handled the Afghanistan situation. He has expressed that Americans and NATO have relied too much a military might and stressed the likelihood of extremism rising and NATO not being able to handle it. It would seem on paper that Iran would prefer nearby nations to be as unstable as possible in order for them to carry out their agenda easier and create a terrorist haven in the Middle East from extremists. Ahmadinejad is very critical of President Bush and America and that does not make negotiating with him very easy. Each world leader has their own quarks and Ahmadinejad is not the most reasonable man and leader and his views make talks even harder.

Just this past November, it was discovered that Iran has enough nuclear fuel to make one nuclear weapon. Iran when questioned about the amount of nuclear power they have harnessed insists that they are only fueling reactors to make nuclear power. Many of the Western nations that stay in close contact with the United States as well as feel that the real goal for Iran is to gain the ability to make nuclear weapons. Also recently, there was a new Iran study that concluded that Iran is aiming to attack American troops in Iraq as a way to show off its own abilities and to display a credible deterrent against a U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Now, as the United States moves forward with a new administration, this is new chance to fix any of the mistakes made between Iran and the United States. You were elected with the premise that you will bring a new approach to dealing with the issues of the world that the last eight years had been doing. Iran, as of early December, has begun to reach out to the next president and established that as of now it will not change its ways. It wants the United States to remove its carrot-and-stick policy toward Iran. How the United States goes about addressing Iran could be dependent on whether or not you stick to your campaign promise to change the previous administration’s policy.

From this brief description of Iran and what will follow, I hope you will consider taking much time to discuss and deliberate on what needs to be done involving Iran, the U.S. and possibly the world’s top threat abroad. Iran has slowly been growing and if the U.S. is not careful it could watch and be affected first hand by the power of Iran and its leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.


I will do a second entry by a professional journalist to shed even more light on this major issue and this non democratic country.