Monday, November 2, 2009

One Year Later...the Election of Obama

A year ago at this time, we were at groundbreaking moment that was the Election of 2008. The primary battle between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton gave us great political theatre into the early part of June. Something we haven't seen in a while. Then the summer became one new development after another. Obama and Senator McCain would wage a heated campaign in the wake of the soon to be outgoing Bush administration. Obama would spite Hillary Clinton and chose Senator Joe Biden to run alongside him and in what was seen as possibly the biggest shocker of the whole campaign; McCain chose little known Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin. She became a breakthrough star for the Republican Party, but lacked the core credentials that most who have run for the nation's top two offices generally have. In the end, the nation came out in huge waves and certain voting blocks like the 18-24 age group and African American community came out to make a statement. The statement being that they were in the mood for change and that change was Senator Barack Obama. He became America's first African American president and his victory was historic to say the least.

Now that the dust has clearly settled from that election and the day itself and we are a year removed; what does it all mean? Has the country changed? Has President Obama delivered on many of the campaign promises he was hoping to achieve? Has the wheel begun to spin in the right direction? Where do we go, in terms of the next year? The next three years? Well, before we go forward we must rewind the clock 365 days ago.

There is no questioning whether you like the current president or you don't you must respect the rise from little known Senator to "the most powerful man in the world" that he had. Also, he ran a campaign that was good enough for a book to written about by David Plouffe and how future campaigns can possibly take bits and pieces away from how then Senator Obama ran for President. He micromanaged and planned everything as 2008 went through its various storms of primaries, election campaigning, and the general election. I, for one, was probably one of the first individuals on the Obama bandwagon. It would be an understatement that politics is one of my main interests. I studied it for four years in college and watch CNN and other channels on a daily basis. So, way back in 2006...yes 2006; roughly 2 years before the 2008 presidential election I was examining possible successors to George W. Bush. Then, something about this Senator from Illinois caught my eye. I vaguely remembered him from the 2004 Democratic National Convention, but I felt as "a student of politics" that this man would rise up and become the next President of the United States. Little did I know that he would make that rise and become the person that many gravitated towards to be the change for a new generation. A change for a new direction in the country.

However, I will be the first to admit that candidate Obama was a lot more successful than President Obama has been thus far. But that is definitely not say that President Obama is failing by any means. Being the President is no easy job and he inherited a laundry list of issues to attack in addition to anything he hoped to address in his four years (or possibly eight; 2012 pending). He might have the majority in both houses of Congress, but that doesn't guarantee an easy relationship between the White House and Congress. He has had to deal with stiff opposition from the Republican Party and slight differences amongst his own party on policy decisions and options.

Obama came into office as the anti-George W. Bush. The Bush-Cheney administration was receiving very low approval ratings and gave whomever the Democratic Party chose as their candidate for president a huge boost. Senator McCain was viewed as someone not very different than the outgoing president and gave Obama higher expectations that he would change things for the better. "Change" truly was the big word of 2008 during the campaign. Obama entered with high approval ratings and won in what would be considered a landslide. However, the honeymoon seems to be over. Obama has to deal with current state of the economy and two ongoing wars in the Middle East. The combination of the two major issues have been a large factor in the flux of his approval among the country as a whole. Any candidate who runs for president knows they must drift towards the middle in political ideology to win election as independents are a key base. So, now that candidate Obama is President Obama; he has often made choices that represent more of the left-minded/Democratic Party's viewpoint. And there have been times when he hasn't gone 100% along with his party on a decision. Nonetheless, the lower poll numbers as the year has gone on are partly to due with Obama's policy decisions and at times his lack of effectiveness and partly to due with the factors of high job unemployment numbers, two wars with one featuring a possible surge, and a heated debate of health care.

President's and elected officials overall aren't supposed to have really high numbers. A democracy needs balance and when a President's numbers vary between 40 and 60 percent than that is perfectly normal. Those who support the Democratic Party will generally give him positive reviews and those who support the Republican Party will generally give him negative reviews. Then, those independents will be a coin flip which way they go in terms of their favorability of the president. The numbers show us a year later that a certain amount of those independent voters are giving him less than stellar reviews. America, due to the combination of the current state of affairs and Obama's performance, has a sense of cynicism and disillusionment and there is certainly an uneasy feeling.

The Iraq and Afghanistan Wars have garnered a lot of the attention during the past year and as far as many are concerned; Obama has not done enough. Despite the movements towards troop withdrawals in Iraq or promises for Afghanistan, things have not gone especially well for the President. Iraq is still going on, which upsets many anti-war individuals who want soldiers out now. Additionally, the continued digression in the state of affairs in Afghanistan have made many want the U.S. to abandon that war as well. The President is still weighing his options as one side pleads to pull troops out and the other side urges the President to add the necessary 40,000 troops that some generals say we need there to give us a chance to succeed in the region. The slow deciding process shows that the President is truly looking at everything involved very carefully, but many do not see that. They only see him not acting right away because "it is obvious what he needs to do." If he makes too rash of a choice, those same people will complain that he messed up. President Obama would certainly be wise to use lessons from the past as a guide throughout his presidency when it comes to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. An ongoing war in Vietnam with a lot of certainty unraveled President Lyndon Johnson and it became a dark cloud into the next decade.

Domestically, the financial crisis has not gotten better as many had hoped. Things seem to be looking up, but not very much. Its like getting a two yard gain in football. It's progress, but you are still at your own 2. The bailouts and stimulus packages aren't getting the results that many hoped and Obama is seen as the blame of the troubles and lack of production from those highly pricey bills. The President has put a lot of trust in the financial members of his cabinet along with the Fed. The only people who have seen the money and received anything so far seems to only be the individuals who caused the crisis and many in a similar financial state. The common man and everyday worker who is struggling or might be unemployed is still waiting for their bailout. There are some aspects of the bailouts and stimulus bills that I don't necessarily agree with, but it seems that as much as many may hate the politics as usual approach; it might be best. It will take time to see if these lofty bills will end up lessening the high unemployment numbers or bring the current crisis and recession to an end. Unless, someone is very knowledgeable of the inner workings of the Fed and big companies, this can easily seem very confusing or look like big checks as a reward for causing a problem. The U.S. Fed is like a semi-private central bank that caters to private banking interests at the expense of the public good. Many Americans have voiced their dislike for the Fed as they seem to be as much at fault as a creator of financial crises as they are at fighting them. Actually, the Fed currently is working to prepare for the next possible crisis: the collapse of the bond market, which could occur in a couple years.

Areas that matter the most and subsequently affect the country the most, will be viewed as the most important when viewing how well the President is doing. When it comes to wars and peace and the economy; not much as changed on the surface in the last year. However, if John McCain was elected instead; things would most likely be worse; at least based on the campaign promises and outlooks if elected. Obama is very likely soon to announce his next step regarding the Afghanistan War. He has already put the proper moves in place in Iraq and I trust that he will do the same regarding Afghanistan. Despite those who disagree with whatever choice he makes; they must know that they need to be patient even though it might be tough. That same patient attitude; as hard as it might be; needs to be applied to the economic crisis we are in. There has been slight progress and that is something to take a positive in the overall recession. Slowly but surely more people will have opportunities that are being created from the stimulus packages. Nonetheless, the President had high expectations a year ago and many thought a wave of change would come through. It looks like Obama has only continued many of President Bush's failed policies and kept some of his staff including Secretary of Defense Robert Gates as well bringing back some past D.C. insiders to work as part of his staff. But what many don't realize that President Obama has a decisive and through outlook on issues and that can be perceived as weakness or a lack of judgment ability.

He might not have been what some were hoping for, but many need to realize that he inherited much of the problems he still has. He has not exactly made them better in the way that many also were hoping for and has made different bad calls at times that has given him the rightful negative comments. Therefore, one year later; we are better off (even if it is only slightly) than we were a year ago. The next year will truly be a crucial one as Obama will own all the successes and failures and I feel very strongly that the numbers will rise (just slightly) as the stimulus will deliver some of its expectations, necessary and correct moves will be made in the Middle East, and late this year/early next year it is very likely a health care bill will pass. That will be enough of a validation for what occurred a year ago with the election of President Obama.

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