A Brown-out in DC

What seemed unexpected six months ago became a reality the other day. Massachusetts State Senator Scott Brown defeated Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley. It was a big victory for the Republican Party as they got their "41st Senator", put a Republican in office in Massachusetts and the seat that the late Senator Ted Kennedy held, and gave themselves momentum against health care legislation and morale as they eye the 2010 midterm elections.

Whether it was Brown's effective campaign that might be compared to the rise of President Obama or the lack of campaigning by Coakley and her ineffective message; the victory can be viewed as an upset.

Without their supermajority, the Democrats in the U.S. Senate will certainly have to be prepared for the use of the filibuster by the Republicans to stall or in their hopes; kill the health care legislation. The loss of the 60 member supermajority will also lead many to believe that we will see reconciliation come up. There have been talks about the votes being calculated as well as putting Brown through a slow confirmation process. I doubt that will happen as it makes the most sense to appease the will of the voters and get the newest U.S. Senator squared away so that he can serve as he was elected to do. In all likelihood, he will certainly have his ears open to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but also don't expect a Republican from Massachusetts to be a lock and step GOP member. He was rode to power by grassroots movements like the Tea Party and despite their leanings and mostly conservative philosophies and ideologies; they are not 100% GOP.

What also can be taken away from Brown's election is you cannot force voters to agree or follow what you say. Incumbents are going to be fighting an uphill climb this year and there were comments made by Coakley that most likely turned off a lot of Independents who voted for Brown. Comments such as this is the Democrats' seat or it is Ted Kennedy's seat. Brown commented in his victory speech that it is neither; it is the people's seat.

The health care legislation was certainly on a good size of the electorate who voted as well. Of interest is the fact that the state already has a form of the health care being poked and prodded in Congress. They may have cast a vote against the legislation or a vote saying that they do not care either way because they already are covered pretty good.

Brown's victory gives the state its first Republican U.S. Senator since 1972. Despite the efforts of both Presidents Obama and Clinton; they could not overcome the surge that Brown was getting as his campaign had picked up momentum over the last couple months. This surge could have lessen months ago if Coakley's campaign would have given Brown proper respect as serious candidate. Also working against Coakley was the fact that there was going to a low turnout compared to what we saw in November 2008. Voters barely vote in midterms and are even less inclined to vote in a special election.

According to polls, 44% of voters cited the top issue as the economy and jobs. That is not too surprising as that has been fairly consistently the top issue for the last 18 months to 2 years. Not too far behind, though, was health care with 38%. People concerned about the economy voted fairly evenly while those concerned about health care leaned towards Coakley.

What is definitely certain is the fact that Brown's election will shift things in Washington up a bit. The president along with Democratic leaders will need to come to an agreement on what steps will be taken in a timely manner or they see health care being finally passed become a little harder. Scott Brown will also give Mitch McConnell that 41st vote and allow their minority to filibuster or slow any bills they see fit in order for more of their demands to be met. But do not be surprised if Brown is like other New England Republicans Senator Olympia Snowe and Senator Susan Collins. The two Republican women from Maine have not always been the most loyal to conservatives and their party, but have held when it matters. Brown might find himself voting with Democrats if he sees it to be the proper decision.

The last thing that is certain is Democrats will be able to learn from this for November and see how much to the center they need to govern to ensure that they have more Independents in their corner than Republicans do. Those last points might have been the biggest difference in the "Brown-out" we saw this week.