What PA-12 Might Mean for November

After much talk in 2010, the beginning of the primary season is upon us. However, this Tuesday; there is a general election that might dictate how successful Republicans might be in November or how successful the Democrats will be in managing election damage.

There has been discussion that the Democrats are heading for a major setback in November. Almost every midterm election, the party opposite the president usually picks up seats. President Obama and the Democrats hope that their losses are low, but Republicans in some corners are predicting big wins, which would lead to them taking back one or both houses of Congress.

Conventional wisdom will have its first test when Mark Critz (D) faces Tim Burns (R) in the special election to replace the late Congressman John Murtha (D). The race between the two has been very close and should come down to the wire on Tuesday night. This southwestern Pennsylvania district has received the attention of both major parties and many high caliber individuals campaigning for one candidate or the other.

The current Democratic seat would be a major win for Republicans if their prophecy of total domination in November is to come true. PA-12 is one of the most conservative swing districts in the country.

Working against Republicans might be the fact that there is also a statewide primary between Senator Arlen Specter and Congressman Joe Sestak for the right to most likely face former Congressman Pat Toomey in November. Hence, there will probably be more Democratic voters going to the ballot box, but that will change how close the Critz-Burns race will be.

So, whatever the outcome; the winning party will have an argument and potential strategy for the fall. It would be a bigger win for the GOP as they want to continue their winning ways after New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts. Ultimately, though, this is a local election, as were those two, with two candidates running against some of the White House's views.

This looks to be a speed bump on the road to November.