Tea Party Wins Might Bring Disunity to Republican Party

From the early days of the Tea Party's movement, the Republican Party has mostly embraced them. They see the movement as a way to prove their point that the White House, President, and Democratic majority-led Congress are taking the country in the wrong direction. They associate the dissent with being totally against the Democratic Party and the President.

During the 2010 primary season, we have seen successes by Tea Party candidates. Rand Paul bucked the establishment including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and won the Republican primary for the candidate for the U.S. Senate for the party. Going into next week's big Tuesday election night, tea party supported candidates like Sharron Angle and Nikki Haley have great chances of winning in Nevada and South Carolina, respectively. Several House races have featured Tea Party candidates and they are running fairly well with the power of the movement behind them. What does this all mean for the midterm elections? And more importantly would could continue success mean to both parties; in particular the one behind most of the support; the Republican Party?

The Republican obviously embrace all the Tea Party candidates because victories for candidates like Paul would decrease the Democrats' majority. It would put both houses of Congress in play and strengthen their numbers. With polling and results in various states, things can be said to be looking up for the Republican Party after back-to-back failed election cycles. The point that I noticed months ago and has mentioned from time to time is the Tea Party movement is not 100% conservative. It is made up of a fair amount of independents and "free thinkers". Paul, for instance, is very much like his father, Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX), in terms of his libertarian stances. Angle or Ken Buck in Colorado are not party ideologues. Much of the success of the Republican Party (if you could call it that) has been their unity against Obama and the Congressional Democrats. They have been obstructionists at times and battled to deny anything on the agenda of the Democrats. The minority party often tries to do that; especially in a midterm election year. The Democratic failures were perceived to be Republican successes for "their agenda" (which was not much besides stop spending).

Mitch McConnell and John Boehner have been able to keep their party members nearly perfectly aligned behind them and the party messages. However, if any of the Tea Party candidates become members of the 112th U.S. Congress; things might change for the Republicans and not in the way they might think. The Democrats struggled at times during the first year and a half so far of Obama administration staying unified to get legislation through a bitter partisan environment. These "free thinkers" like Paul or Angle will not be sheep for McConnell as he might think.

It's actually kind of funny (maybe). Republicans for the longest time have struggled with how to approach the Tea Party members. They knew that they were good for the fight against the President's agenda, but have been slowly realizing that they don't necessarily aide them like they thought. National elections, whether it be for President of the United States or U.S. Congress; you cannot be successful if you run too far one way. That might be good and dandy during a primary when you are trying to please your base, but independents largely decided national elections and they are turned off by crazy hyperbole.

We have already seen Paul make a misstep when discussing the Civil Rights Act of 1964. His true libertarian and some might say extreme views shown through. These candidates have also preached on not being part of the problem and establishment. Several members of the Republican could be painted in that light including McConnell.

Also, we have seen Senators Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Scott Brown express slight bits of moderate views and understandings. They have been open to discussion with members of the Democratic Party. The Republican Party has been slowly shunning moderates and those three will continue to be wildcards on certain issues. The same could be said of nominees Mark Kirk and Mike Castle, Illinois and Delaware respectfully. They are both members of the U.S. House and have a very good chance of winning in November. They represent another problem for the Republican Party: the potential for a handful of moderates who might not lock step with the party. Thus, you have the candidates who lean too far being tough to control and the candidates who lean towards the center also being tough to control.

Tea Party successes, though, do lessen the potential for moderates to reemerge in the Republican Party. It is very likely that at least a couple of these candidates do win in November; which would be a good problem for McConnell and the members of the Republican Party. They do need to guard the movement for their sake. Once the 2010 midterms end, the 2012 election becomes the next focus point for both parties. If Republicans want to put "their candidate" in position to win the nomination and win the White House back; they will need to monitor the growth of the Tea Party movement. They have increased their voice. If they get members of Congress, their power will grow. They will then turn towards shifting the political realm and that can vastly impact who might emerge during the 2012 cycle.

The Republican Party has prided themselves on staying on the same page. The more the Tea Party become involved; the less the unity will exist. They have wanted the American public to "get mad". They might have gotten their wish, but it might backfire this year and in the coming years as they fight to regain power.