Sunday, July 11, 2010

MLB: At the Halfway Point

It has been a tumultuous year to this point and now baseball turns second base and is on course for home with a lot going on.

For the first time in a long time, all six divisions are competitive with the biggest lead being only 4.5 games. The super tough AL East has been the cream of the crop thus far. The Yankees hold baseball's best record at 56-32. But the Rays are only 2 back and the Red Sox sit 5 back.

The AL Central is also a three team heat with the White Sox leading the Tigers by 0.5 games and the Twins by 3.5 games. While the script has been flipped a bit in the AL West with the Rangers leading the Angels by 4.5 instead of the other way around. They seem poised to embark in a duel for most of the summer for bragging rights.

Speaking of a change of script, the two defending NL Champion Phillies find themselves in third place in the NL East. The Braves lead the Mets by 4 and Phillies by 4.5 and the Braves seem extra motivated in manager Bobby Cox's last year at the helm. The NL division to watch in the second half will almost certainly be the NL Central. The Reds have a 1 game lead over the Cardinals and look fairly even and not willing to let the other gain too much of an advantage. Besides the Reds, one of the biggest surprise this year has been the play of the NL West leading Padres. They lead the division by 2 games, but have the Dodgers, Rockies, and Giants all on their trail; as all four are within 4 of each other.

Breaking all that down, the AL East looks to be between the Yankees and Rays with the Red Sox as an outside team for the AL Wildcard with the runner-up based on how many guys they get back in the second half. In the AL Central, the Twins might have too many injuries and thus leave the race between the White Sox and Tigers. Winner emerges and loser misses playoffs. The same seems to be the case out in the AL West. Rangers have the edge right now and that would mean the Angels miss out this year on the postseason.

In the NL East, the Phillies will probably turn things around and give the Braves a run for the division title with the Mets as an outside spoiler for either one. The NL Central looks to be an interesting battle between St. Louis and Cincinnati with the Reds having more pop, but the experience of the Cardinals might be the difference. Out west, the Padres have had the best pitching staff and that might give them a slight edge over the other three in that department. Pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez might be enough to give the Rockies a chance with their come from behind mentality and if Los Angeles and San Francisco can find consistent hitting; they are threats. The four will probably beat each other up and allow the NL East runner-up to slip in as the wildcard.

Other things to watch in the second half include both hitting and pitching. Jimenez has been dominant compiling 15 wins at the half and has a chance for 30 wins if he can continue his hot start. Very unlikely, but 20 to 25 wins is very likely. Another pitcher to watch and Jimenez's competition for NL Cy Young is Marlins pitcher Josh Johnson. Johnson has frozen hitters and averaged less than 2 runs per game for much of the latter half of their first half. The two will be guys to watch each start.

The AL Cy Young might be a little more wide open with David Price in Tampa Bay with a small lead just based on his record. But guys like C.C. Sabathia, Jon Lester, Andy Petitte, and Felix Hernandez are also worthy contenders.

Both leagues have wide open MVP races as well featuring familiar faces and new guys. In the AL, Josh Hamilton has reemerged again this year after recovering from injury and is a big reason why the Rangers lead the AL West. While Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers is also having a phenomenal year. Something worth watching is both guys pursuit of a possible triple crown. That has not occurred in 43 years.

Additionally, Joey Votto of the Reds, Corey Hart of the Brewers, and Jose Batista of the Blue Jays have come out of almost nowhere this year so far. Votto is a serious contender for NL MVP along with those two pitchers. Albert Pujols of the Cardinals is again having another solid year and will be a contender. And Vladimir Guerrero has reclaimed his swagger after a down year down and been a catalyst for the Rangers.

Yankees' slugger Alex Rodriguez will be one of the players spotlighted as he is very close to 600 home runs and will only be the seventh player to achieve that accomplishment.

And of course, the big storyline for the last half of July will the trade deadline. Over/under on the trades will probably hover around a dozen. Big names are not usually traded, but somewhat big names and role players are fair game. Players like Roy Oswalt, Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, and Cliff Lee are some of the bigger names that might be moved by July 31st. However, expect only a couple big trades to go through and more role pitcher or infielder to plug into the top or bottom of a lineup.

The first half has been somewhat tense and thrilling and thus far and it looks like there is a lot to look forward to in the second half and might have a few different story lines unlike the last couple years. Two aces will duel in the NL and two hitters will duel in the AL. The Yankees seemed poised to get back to the Fall Classic while the postseason might include the Reds, the Rangers, and/or the Padres. Also, the Braves and the White Sox seemed poised to return after a few years without a postseason appearance. Hence, besides those Yankees; we might have a new field of teams this year.

The All Star is on the horizon and after that there will be three months of what should be compelling baseball.

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