Thursday, September 16, 2010

Polls Reveal Positive Signs for Both Parties

2010 has been building as a rough election year for Democrats. Republicans are not exactly hitting public opinion "home runs" either. However, a new New York Times/CBS News poll might provide some better news for both parties.

The poll shows that despite the negativity directed at Democrats, voters view Republicans even more negatively. That can provide a spot of hope with seven weeks to go for Democrats to manage their losses. Tapping into voters' opinions and having those opinions translate into votes will be part of the mission for Democrats.

The bright spots for Democrats:

They are seen as having better ideas for solving the country’s problems. The public steadfastly supports the president’s proposal to let tax cuts expire for the wealthiest Americans. And far more people still blame Wall Street and the Bush administration than blame Mr. Obama for the country’s economic problems.

The bright spots for Republicans:

Voters are remarkably open to change, even if they are not sure where Republicans will lead them. Most Americans, including one-third of those in the coalition that elected Mr. Obama, now say he does not have a clear plan to solve the nation’s problems or create jobs. Democrats remain highly vulnerable on the economy.

Congress never generates great approval numbers and the negatives are higher for Republicans in this regard as well with 63% disapproving of Democrats, but 73% disapprove of Republicans. However, despite those numbers and others; Democrats have not been able to turn the higher negative opinion for Republican into guaranteed votes for them in November. "Blind faith" might be the biggest thing working against Democrats as some are probably going to vote against their own best interest and opinions only because they want to try something else. Voters can be fickle. They might be the ficklest right now than they have ever been.

In years when times are less than good, the incumbents pay regardless of if problems are a result of their errors or oppression of the opposing party.

Working against the Democrats as well is the fact that most have a negative view of the direction of the country. Something very similar to 1994 when Republicans regained Congress. Additionally, Congress usually generates bad poll numbers; but representatives are even getting bad marks among their constituents.

Driving much of the negativity is the stagnant and slowly improving economy. The economy has not been this bad in roughly seven decades. Hence, there is a greater concern among voters of their futures as they deal with a tough recession.

Moving forward, the results of this poll show voters not sold on Republicans and not too sure about the Tea Party. In politics, more than half the battle is molding a message and Democrats can certainly do some of that with this poll. For most of this cycle, the negative comments have been about Democrats; however voters are still saying more negative things about Republicans.

If this poll means anything, it means that the election predictions and "anointing" of a Democratic "bloodbath" might need to be drawn back at least just a bit as voters' opinions are reflecting some different views than some pundits are saying.

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