If one were to gauge the mood of the electorate this year, beyond the feeling of apathy for politics as usual; most would say that the economy was the most important issue. However, if one were to listen and I mean really listen to some campaigns and speeches; you would hear and see several candidates more concerned with other issues and areas. If you heard many Tea Party candidates talk like a Sharon Angle or Christine O'Donnell, you would quickly see that their social stances are far right of the majority of middle America aka Independents. Several Independents flipped from voting Democrat in 2008 to Republican in 2010 mainly due to the economy and jobs and the lack of major positive changes. Nonetheless, that did deter several conservative or far right candidates from focusing on abortion, Medicare, unions, or unemployment benefits. Among the right or base of the Republican Party there seems to be a disdain for the idea of social programs that can be viewed as government hand-outs or freebies if one were to use the scope used by such individuals.
The unrest with the economy drove the pessimistic electorate and lo and behold, the Republicans were able to not only reclaim the House majority, but picked up 20 more seats than needed to regain that majority. The victory was the biggest in a midterm election in 70 years. What the electorate in many areas that can be considered swing districts or potential battlegrounds did not realize was that they were blindly choosing the alternative. Many voters heard the social conservative stances of several candidates. Some agreed with them while others chose to pretend they did not hear the candidates' stances and focused more on what the candidate might do for the economic situation. Essentially, social conservatives shielded their controversial opinions or goals with a bad economy. They voiced to voters that the election was about the economy and candidates should not be largely criticized on their social stances since the electorate needed to shift the leadership and control in Congress to potentially shift and upgrade the economic climate.
The effects are going to be felt beyond Capitol Hill and Washington. Republicans not only made gains in both houses of Congress, but picked up multiple governor's mansions in key presidential states like Pennsylvania and Ohio while maintaining power in Florida by a razor thin majority. Furthermore, in states like Wisconsin, the power not shifted with governors, but many state legislatures also flipped from Democrat to Republican. What that all means is not only will the U.S. House seem a more conservative agenda being crafted, but in states with Republican control in both the executive and legislative branches; there could be dramatic changes ahead if party officials get their way.
Thus, the table is now set for what could be a rocky two years as Republicans are in position to not only say "no", but govern at the state and national level. And, they will largely govern based on social issues early as opposed to what they said they were running on: fixing the economy. It will probably not take too long before key Democratic achievements like the Affordable Care Act will be targeted. If one were to take a snapshot of the mood of the electorate two weeks ago, they would see six in ten voters voting with the economic recession as their primary concern. Beyond the often debated and talked about health care reform, no other social matter registered more than a minor blip on the electoral radar this year.
However, states will see their Republican governors and Republican state legislatures look to slow down the implementation of aspects of health care reform. Moreover, whether it be preventing funding for clinics that provide care to women including abortions or slow down equal rights progress in some states that involves gay marriage, conservative changes are ahead.
To put the shifts and changes into perspective:
Before the midterm elections, Democrats controlled 27 state legislatures outright. Republicans were in charge in 14 states, and eight states were split. (Nebraska, which has a single legislative chamber, is officially nonpartisan). Today, Republicans control 26 state legislatures, Democrats 17, and five have split control. In New York, officials are still determining who is in charge in the state Senate. Republicans control more legislatures than they have since 1952.
Millions and billions were poured into races to elect conservative candidates with the hopes of a more conservative agenda being implemented at the state level and potentially at various levels at the national level. Groups led by individuals like the Koch brothers and Karl Rove did not necessarily lead a Republican revolution ala Ronald Reagan or Newt Gingrich, but something much further right that speaks to the conservative wing having their own radical social agenda that they have accused President Obama and the Democrats of during the last two years.
Also, just as some Democrats misinterpreted 2008 as a reason to govern with little restrain; expect Republicans to misjudge the election as a mandate for them when many Democratic and Independent voters voted Republican because they saw them as the less of two evils in a given race. Liberals are bracing themselves for battles and a conservative social agenda that might be openly accepted in some states, but could face public backlash in others.
It will be a balancing act as one scans the country to see which Republicans act cautiously in order to not lose control in two years and which ones roll the dice with a mandate that does not exist and tune out the same voters they complained Democrats were ignoring.
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