The Art of Politicking

Often times in politics, the biggest battle is not over policy, but over message. That has certainly been the case during President Obama's first two years. He has set out to accomplish much and has done quite a few big things that involve health care and financial reform. The economy was largely an issue given to him that he has addressed with about as much success as one could hope for. That is why an article by Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne caught my eye. He lays out much of the successes of Obama's administration and all the obstacles thrown his way. But most important was the president's lack of politicking to get all those accomplishments out to the voters and ingrained into their minds. He has tried to salvage that in recent weeks, but the damage might be done with two months to go until the 2010 Midterm Elections.

Dionne's words:

President Obama's address to the nation on Iraq this week underscores the agony of his presidency and its core political problem.

Seen from the inside, the administration is an astonishing success. Obama has kept his principal promises and can take credit for achievements that eluded his Democratic predecessors.

He pledged to have all combat troops out of Iraq by the end of this month and, as Obama will remind us on Tuesday, he's accomplished just that. Congress enacted a comprehensive health-care bill and a sweeping reform of how the financial system is regulated. His rescue of the American auto industry worked, foiling predictions that he'd run GM and Chrysler as if they were arms of Chicago's Democratic machine. There are many other legislative and administrative actions that, in normal circumstances, would loom larger if these were not such exceptional -- and difficult -- times.

Yet the challenging nature of the moment does not explain all of the president's struggles. It's true that his accomplishments will have important long-term effects, even if they have not resolved the country's central concern: the continuing sluggishness of the economy.

But Obama and his party are also in a hole because the president has chosen not to engage the nation in an extended dialogue about what holds all of his achievements together, or why his attitude toward government makes more sense than the scattershot conservative attacks on everything Washington might do to improve the nation's lot.

There was a revealing moment in early August when Obama told an audience at a Texas fundraiser: "We have spent the last 20 months governing. They spent the last 20 months politicking." Referring to the impending elections, he added: "Well, we can politick for three months. They've forgotten I know how to politick pretty good."

Obama's mistake is captured by that disdainful reference to "politicking." In a democracy, separating governing from "politicking" is impossible. "Politicking" is nothing less than the ongoing effort to convince free citizens of the merits of a set of ideas, policies and decisions. Voters feel better about politicians who put what they are doing in a compelling context. Citizens can endure setbacks as long as they believe the overall direction of the government's approach is right.

Franklin D. Roosevelt was a genius at offering such reassurances, which is why his fireside chats are the stuff of political legend. Ronald Reagan never stopped campaigning for his conservative vision because he was determined to leave behind a thriving conservative movement. Roosevelt and Reagan both changed the country's underlying philosophical assumptions.

Despite occasional forays into this realm, Obama has created the impression that he is taking things one decision at a time, without a passion for how he would like the country to look in the long run.

He and his party are often defensive when it comes to saying what they really believe: that government, well-executed, is a positive good; that too much economic inequality is both dysfunctional and unjust; that capitalism has never worked without regulation and a strong dose of social insurance. They no longer dare talk about public enterprise, a phrase my friend Chris Matthews reminded me of recently, visible in our great state universities, our best public schools, our road and transit systems, and in the research and development that government finances in areas where there is no immediate profit to be made.

The Obama press office, I know, can send me speeches in which he has made some of these points. But the president's efforts to lay down a consistent rationale, argument and philosophy have been sporadic. He has created a vacuum, filled by the wild charges of Glenn Beck, the disappointment of progressives who emphasize what he hasn't done and the tired "government is always the problem" rhetoric of his mainstream conservative opponents. He has thus left himself and his Democratic allies with weak defenses against a tide of economic melancholy.

It is too late to turn the midterm election into a triumph for the administration but not too late to salvage his party's congressional majorities. Given dismal Democratic expectations, that would now be rated as a victory. But doing so will require Obama to think anew about what "politicking" really means, to pick more than tactical fights with his adversaries, and to lay out, without equivocation or apology, where he is trying to move the country. It's just too bad he didn't start earlier.

College Football Preview: Rankings, Conferences, Etc

Another college football season is upon us and it is time to dissect a few things: Top 25 Rankings, Conference Previews, and a few more things to look forward to.

TOP 25 (Preseason/Week 1)
1) Alabama (end of 09: 1) vs. San Jose State
2) Ohio State (end of 09: 5) vs. Marshall
3) Boise State (end of 09: 4) vs. #10 Virginia Tech
4) Texas (end of 09: 2) vs. Rice
5) Florida (end of 09: 3) vs. Miami (OH)
6) TCU (end of 09: 7) vs. #24 Oregon State
7) Oklahoma (end of 09: NR) vs. Utah State
8) Nebraska (end of 09: 14) vs. Western Kentucky
9) Iowa (end of 09: 6) vs. Eastern Illinois
10) Virginia Tech (end of 09: 10) vs. #3 Boise State
11) Oregon (end of 09: 11) vs. New Mexico
12) Miami (FL) (end of 09: 18) vs. Florida A&M
13) Wisconsin (end of 09: 16) at UNLV
14) Pittsburgh (end of 09: 15) at Utah
15) Georgia Tech (end of 09: 12) vs. South Carolina State
16) North Carolina (end of 09: NR) vs. #21 LSU
17) Penn State (end of 09: 9) vs. Youngstown State
18) Florida State (end of 09: NR) vs. Samford
19) Arkansas (end of 09: NR) vs. Tennessee Tech
20) USC (end of 09: 21) at Hawaii
21) LSU (end of 09: 17) vs. #16 North Carolina
22) Auburn (end of 09: NR) vs. Arkansas State
23) Georgia (end of 09: NR) vs. LA Lafeyette
24) Oregon State (end of 09: NR) vs. #6 TCU
25) Cincinnati (end of 09: 8) at Fresno State

Dropped out from end of 09: #13 Brigham Young, #19 Utah, #20 Mississippi, #22 Clemson, #23 Texas Tech, #24 West Virginia, #25 Oklahoma State

The next best 5 for Week 1:
West Virginia: vs Coastal Carolina
Utah: vs. Pittsburgh
Stanford: vs. Sacramento State
Houston: vs. Texas State
Connecticut: at Michigan


CONFERENCE PREVIEWS

ACC

ATLANTIC:
Florida State
Boston College
Clemson
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest

COASTAL:
Virginia Tech
Miami (FL)
Georgia Tech
North Carolina
Duke
Virginia

Championship Game: Florida State vs. Virginia Tech/Miami (FL)

Big 12

NORTH:
Nebraska
Kansas State
Missouri
Colorado
Kansas
Iowa State

SOUTH:
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Baylor

Championship Game: Nebraska vs. Texas/Oklahoma

Big East

Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Connecticut
Rutgers
South Florida
Louisville
Syracuse

CHAMPION: Pittsburgh

Big Ten

Ohio State
Iowa
Wisconsin
Penn State
Purdue
Michigan
Minnesota
Michigan State
Northwestern
Illinois
Indiana

CHAMPION: Ohio State

Pac-10

Oregon
USC
Oregon State
Stanford
Arizona
UCLA
Washington
California
Arizona State
Washington State

CHAMPION: Oregon

SEC

EAST:
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt

WEST:
Alabama
Arkansas
LSU
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State

Championship Game: Florida vs. Alabama (but don't sleep on either Georgia, Arkansas, or Auburn)

Conference USA: East Carolina vs. Houston in Championship Game

Mountain West: TCU

MAC: Ohio/Temple vs. Ball State

Sun Belt: Troy or Florida Atlantic

WAC: Boise State


AND Lastly, a little preview regarding the Heisman race.

Players to watch as the season progresses:

HB Mark Ingram (Alabama): Returning winner playing with defensing national champions

QB Tyrelle Pryor (Ohio State): He looks to be ready for a break out season with a national championship contender team

QB Kellen Moore (Boise State): He had 39 TDs to 3 INTS a year ago. This year could be a repeat and he has the chance to lead his team to a potential title game.

QB Ryan Mallet (Arkansas): He is a mobile quarterback, who can lead Arkansas to the SEC title game and championship this year.

QB Jake Locker (Washington): He does not play for the best team in the country, but if he can get them close to a Pac-10 crown; he can stay in the conversation.

QB Case Keenum (Houston): He had an awesome year statically last year and could do the same again. His fortunes will depend on how well the team plays. They faltered down the stretch as did his Heisman hopes.


This year looks to be an exciting season with no true clear cut best team ala last year. Alabama and Ohio State are probably early favorites, but as college football has shown; top 5 teams will lose at some point.

5 Myths Regarding the 2010 Midterm Elections

Media is a 24/7 news cycle. Thus it is often hard to sometimes decipher what is fact and what is fiction. Pundits, whether neutral or not, will say various things. Sometimes they are accurate and other times voters change the script on them and they look foolish. With that said, I came across another great top 5 myths list. This one pertains to the 2010 Midterm Elections. They bring the elections and 2010 into a better perspective before people start to get ahead of themselves.

That list is:

1) Midterm votes foretell future election results:

Midterm elections are largely determined by short-term factors, including the popularity of the president and the state of the economy. As a result, they rarely indicate anything about longer-term trends, and they have no value in predicting the results of the subsequent presidential and congressional elections. Presidents whose parties have suffered major midterm losses -- such as Harry Truman in 1946, Ronald Reagan in 1982 and Bill Clinton in 1994 -- have gone on to win reelection easily two years later. So even if Republicans make major gains in 2010, as is widely expected, it won't tell us anything about what will happen in 2012. That said, presidential elections often predict midterms. For one thing, the president's party almost always loses seats in the midterms. And if a president's election provided major coattails -- big gains for his party in Congress -- his party tends to lose more seats than usual in the next midterm elections. But even here, there are exceptions. Although Clinton was elected president in 1992 with negative coattails (Democrats lost nine House seats that year), his party still suffered a massive loss of 54 seats in the House and eight in the Senate in the 1994 midterm vote. Later, Clinton's second midterm election, in 1998, was one of only three in the past century in which the president's party actually gained House seats. In 2008, the Democrats picked up 21 seats in the House, having just gained 30 seats in the 2006 midterms. It is exceedingly rare for a party to have gains that large in two consecutive elections -- and unprecedented to have a third big gain in a row. So even as Republicans reeled in humiliation after their rivals' landslide victory in 2008, they might have taken comfort in the prospect of a sharp comeback in 2010.

2) It's an anti-incumbent year:

We hear this almost every time midterm elections come along at a time of widespread voter discontent. But even when voters seem very unhappy, the vast majority of incumbents in both parties are reelected. Despite Congress's low approval ratings this year, only a handful of incumbents have lost their primaries, and there were peculiar reasons for several of those defeats. While a second round of incumbents is likely to lose seats in November, it is unlikely that more than 10 percent of lawmakers will be ousted. Even in 1974, which was the worst midterm for incumbents in the past 50 years, 87.7 percent of Congress won reelection. Voters are highly selective in voting out incumbents in the general election -- even when polls suggest that they are eager to boot all the rascals and clean house, they rarely follow through. The incumbents who do lose in a given midterm tend to come overwhelmingly from the president's party. In 1994, during Clinton's presidency, only Democratic incumbents lost; in 2006, during George W. Bush's second term, only Republican incumbents lost. This year it is likely that almost all of the incumbent casualties will be Democrats.

3) The president's message is crucial:

In fact, his message has little effect on midterm elections. If voters are unhappy with the president and the economy is bad, even a great communicator such as Reagan can do little to prevent significant losses by his party. The same is true for presidential advisers. Karl Rove looked like a genius in 2002 because Bush was still enjoying strong public approval in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Four years later, in 2006, Rove didn't look so smart when voters took out their dissatisfaction with the president and the Iraq war on Republican congressional candidates. Of course, some individual seats will always be affected by the president's message. And in a year when the difference between Democrats losing 35 or 40 House seats is the difference between having Speaker Nancy Pelosi or Speaker John Boehner, every district matters. But overall, there is probably little that Obama can say or do in the next couple of months to change the broad outcome of this year's elections. The die has already been cast.

4) It's always about the economy:

Not always. A down economy generally makes the president's party look bad and contributes to significant losses by that party in the midterms. But a poor economy does not automatically mean electoral disaster -- and a strong economy does not guarantee good results, particularly if voters are concerned about other problems, such as scandals or wars. In 1966, for instance, the economy was booming, but Democrats suffered big losses in the midterm elections, in part because voters were unhappy with President Lyndon Johnson's handling of the Vietnam War and his response to domestic unrest, and in part because the pendulum was simply swinging back toward the middle after big Democratic gains in 1964. In 2006, the economy was in decent shape, but growing opposition to Bush's conduct of the war in Iraq and high-profile Republican congressional scandals contributed to big GOP losses. In 1982, unemployment was at 10.8 percent as the midterms neared, and conventional wisdom said Reagan's Republicans were done for. Republicans did lose 26 of the 33 House seats they had gained in 1980 -- but they gained a seat in the Senate. This year, however, the economy may trump all. Thanks to the economic collapse, the bailouts of fat cats that followed, and stubbornly sluggish growth and high unemployment, it's once again the economy, stupid.

5) Midterms provide mandates:

To the degree that voting results in congressional districts around the country add up to any unified message, it is a judgment on the party in power -- and usually a negative one at that. But the winning party, aided by a media that wants to dramatize election results, tends to spin this judgment as a sign of public support for its policy goals. If they win big in November, Republicans will no doubt argue that they have received a mandate to pursue their agenda -- and more important, to block or even try to reverse the president's agenda. Democrats similarly claimed their own mandate when they recaptured Congress in 2006. But such declarations can backfire: After their big win in 1994, congressional Republicans, led by Newt Gingrich, acted as if the president were irrelevant and they were in charge of the government. That gave Clinton an opportunity to portray the Republicans as arrogant and extreme, and it ultimately contributed to his easy reelection in 1996. If Republicans make the same mistake in 2011 -- and already, some House Republicans are talking seriously about cutting off funding for the health-care overhaul and parts of the Wall Street reform plan passed this year -- the public reaction is likely to be the same as it was in 1995, when the GOP-engineered shutdown of the government caused a huge backlash against Gingrich and his party. That would make Obama the big winner of the 2010 midterm elections.

No Victory Laps for the Democrats

After November 2008, Democrats' spirits were at a high as they not only had the U.S. Congress in their control, but had just regained the Presidency after 8 years. However, as the 2010 Midterm Elections near; Democrats are not running victory laps, but simply running away.

Outgoing Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT) might have summed it up best: "Democrats don't know how to celebrate."

The 111th Congress saw many major pieces legislation processed under their watch. Legislation that will shape the country for many years to come is a mere afterthought for many Democrats this year. Normally, you would think that a party with multiple achievements would be on the offensive, but that has not been the Democrats' style and play defense instead on those major decisions over the last two years.

With a less than three months until Election Day, things are not stacking up especially well for the Democrats.

Under Obama's guidance, this Congress has passed: the $787 billion stimulus package, health care reform, anti-age discrimination law, tobacco regulation, expansion of community service, credit card consumer protection, Pentagon contracting changes, tax cuts, and Wall Street/financial regulation. Minus items like climate change and immigration, the agenda of Congressional Democrats and President Obama has been tackled despite the bitter partisanship in the nation's capital. The victories looked like strictly party line votes, but were very much hard fought. Health care reform alone would rival anything since Lyndon Johnson's administration and the 1960s and his Great Society.

Senate Republicans like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell wishes he had the numbers to prevent health care reform, financial reform, the stimulus, and many other "harmful" Democratic bills. Since "they forced the legislation" on the public, their "arrogance" will lead to their downfall this November.

Any neutral or sensible political observer could see that the Republicans were successful in shaping the argument and perception on multiple issues and items throughout the last year and a half. The Democrats have scrambled to project the positive successes they have to the public and that is why there is so real celebrating as voters will ultimately determine their fate and the fate of this Congress. Not helping Democrats is their fractious nature with the left fighting the center and the left angry certain legislation has not been past yet.

The uncertain nature of today's times due to the economy and job causes many to worry about their futures. Largely, the legislation past will not be felt until 2012 or later depending on certain aspects of legislative initiatives. Obama and the Democrats hope to get "one more lap" before the election to past legislation for small businesses and others greatly affected by the recession.

History is the harshest and most honest judge. History is too far off from today though. Hence why Democrats continue to sprint and scramble instead of frolicking around with their hands in the air after passing groundbreaking bills.

NFL Preseason Preview: NFC West/AFC West

NFC WEST:

Arizona Cardinals: The team had another good year and followed their Super Bowl run in 2008 with another playoff run in 2009 with a 10-6 regular season record before losing to the New Orleans Saints in the divisional round game that featured little defense and a lot of offense. QB Kurt Warner is gone and there remains much uncertainty if QB Matt Leinart can replace him. WR Larry Fitzgerald is a still a freak, but WR Anquan Boldin is gone and in Baltimore. HBs Chris "Beanie" Wells and Tim Hightower might be asked to do too much in the wake of poor quarterback play. Their defense is still a work in progress despite some improvements, but the loss of SS Antrell Rolle might cause a setback.

San Francisco 49ers: The still young 49ers finished at 8-8 as they are beginning to show signs that they might return to the top of the division as soon as this year due to the even nature of the division. Plus, repeating their 2009 record might be enough. Figuring out who will be the starting quarterback continues to plague the team with QB Alex Smith probably leading the field for now. TE Vernon Davis has responded greatly to Head Coach Mike Singletary's comments. It might be their up and coming defense that brings them back to the postseason. LB Patrick Willis might become the Ray Lewis of his generation and it has only taken a few years for him to garner that type of dominance.

St. Louis Rams: The Rams have experience a tough three year stretch as they went 1-15 last year and have won 6 games in three years. Drafting QB Sam Bradford might change their fortunes as during the last three years HB Steven Jackson has been asked to carry the brunt of the load. He has had to play injured, but Bradford and the potential big play ability of young guys like WR Donnie Avery might reignite their offense. Just as important for this upcoming year is the continued improvement on defense. There is greater pressure from the front seven as they have used a combo of youth and experience.

Seattle Seahawks: After a string of playoff appearances and division titles, they struggled again in 2009 going 5-11. QB Matt Hasselback's health continues to be a repeating question and the acquisition of QB Charlie Whitehurst from San Diego might spark some quarterback controversy. New head coach, Pete Carroll, might provide a necessary surge of energy from his coaching days at USC. They probably had one of the best drafts this year, which includes first rounds OT Russell Okung out of Oklahoma State and SS Earl Thomas out of Texas. One cannot expect them to struggle for a third year in a row.

OUTLOOK: The NFC West has been labeled lately the worst division in the NFL. Going 8-8 will likely be enough to win the division. Without Kurt Warner in Arizona, the playing is very much even. The Cardinals will see a difference without Warner and struggle. The Seahawks also have questions at the quarterback position, but if healthy Hasselback will be the best quarterback in the division. The Rams with Bradford should be able to equal the same win total of the last three years. But, it is the 49ers that just might have the right mix to slip by the other three and win the division. Division games will be utmost importance more than ever this year.

AFC WEST:

Denver Broncos: The Broncos finished their season at 8-8 and had another let down of a year. QB Kyle Orton did better than some expected in the wake of trading QB Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears. Now, this offseason, they traded WR Brandon Marshall to the Miami Dolphins. WRs like Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Lloyd will asked to carry more of the load now. Defensively, they have DE/LB Elvis Dumervil, who keeps getting better. Some of the behind the scenes issues might slow the progress of the team and its playoff chances.

Kansas City Chiefs: They stumbled to a 4-12 record, but draftee S Eric Berry might solve some of their defensive woes. They have had early picks the last few years and might be about to take the next step with all that talent. New leadership and ownership has infused guys like LB Mike Vrabel to go along with WR Dwayne Bowe. QB Matt Cassell did not deliver as expected in 2009 after his surprising 2008 in New England, but tends to manage the game well, which might be enough in several games with the mix of talent.

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders continued their losing ways going 5-11, but might be ready to turn the corner now that QB JaMarcus Russell is gone. HB Darren McFadden started to show flashes of his Arkansas self last year and drafting LB Ronaldo McClain from Alabama might be one of their best picks in recent memory. Their defense took a step backwards last year and will need to regain the mix of run and pass defense that made them tough to score on in 2008 again in 2010 to potentially win the AFC West.

San Diego Chargers: The started slow again in 2009 before running off a win streak during the second half that led to a 13-3 record. However, their playoff woes continued with a division round loss to the New York Jets. HB LaDanian Tomlinson is out and draftee HB Ryan Mathews will be expected to fill his shoes fast. QB Phillip Rivers continues to heave the ball everywhere, but the uneven health of TE Antonio Gates has slowed the offense. Two holdouts, OT Marcus McNeil and WR Vincent Jackson, might hinder the Chargers' chances of repeating in what is otherwise a weak division. Both are crucial elements of the offense and likely will be out for the first few games if not longer.

OUTLOOK: The division again looks like San Diego's to lose. Denver will be better, but their offense will struggle at times without a target like Marshall to throw to. Oakland could show some signs of improvement, but getting to .500 might not be enough. The same thing could probably be said for Kansas City as their inexperience will cost them at times. That leaves the Chargers, who will likely take a step back, but will have enough to repeat in the division under Rivers' leadership and a tough front seven that confuses great quarterbacks like Peyton Manning.

NFL Preseason Preview: NFC South/AFC South

NFC SOUTH:

Atlanta Falcons: The falcons were able to finish last year at 9-7 and give their franchise their first back-to-back winning seasons. However, unlike in 2008, they failed to make the postseason. QB Matt Ryan continues to grow into a franchise quarterback and HB Michael Turner when healthy gives their offense a killer punch. WR Roddy White had a breakout year in 2009 and should follow it up this year as he will serve as Ryan's main target. And, the always reliable, TE Tony Gonzalez continues to play at a high level providing a security blanket for Ryan. There are some holes on defense at linebacker and at times in their backfield. The team has the right mix of talent now to overtake the Saints in the division and the two meetings between the two could very likely flip the division in favor of one or the other.

Carolina Panthers: The finished 8-8 last year and 2010 looks to be a slight bit of a transition year. DE Julius Peppers is gone and their defense will reflect his absence. QB Jake Delhomme is in Cleveland, but was on a downward progression. Likely, QB Matt Moore will be give the starting role, but draftee QB Jimmy Clausen out of Notre Dame could replace him during the season at any point. Both seem to lack certain intangibles expected at that position. WR Steve Smith might have seen his better days pass him by as he is starting to even act up in training camp. LB Jon Beason is a bright spot on the team as he is developing into one of the top linebackers in the NFL. There is a good chance that John Fox is in his last year and there could be speculations of his future and the team's that hurt them at times this year.

New Orleans Saints: The team started 13-0 before stumping down the stretch to finish 13-3. They quickly regroup in playoffs as they ran a miracle streak to their first Super Bowl with a victory over the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV. QB Drew Brees and Head Coach Sean Payton have paved a bright future for the franchise. HB Pierre Thomas became a hidden gem and will asked to repeat his performance of last year as HB Reggie Bush continues to struggle to be an every down type of back. Brees finds ways to get the ball to multiple targets. The defense also steps up their play from past years and spurred the team during off weeks for the offense. Guys like SS Darren Sharper and LB Jonathan Vilma will continue to set the tone for the squad. Sharper is a bit banged up, but still very good. DE Will Smith has also increased his productivity. It will be very tough to repeat, but repeating as division champions is very likely. Atlanta will test them even more than last year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs struggled last year to a 3-13 record under a new head coach and new quarterback. There were many lessons learned from closing games to not turning the ball over. QB Josh Freeman showed signs of brilliance and can grow from his lumps last year. The young nucleus will come back this year with another year of experience and improve on their record. The old regime is all, but gone with the exception of CB Ronde Barber, who still plays at a high level after more than a decade in the league. DT Gerard McCoy will be expected to the be the type of player Warren Sapp was for them for years. HB Cadillac Williams is also shows signs of improving. Their young nucleus will show up in losses, but will play off in a couple years.

OUTLOOK: Expect the Bucs to struggle again with a chance to double their win total. The Panthers will experience some growing pains and likely finish below .500 as well. That leaves Atlanta and New Orleans to battle for the division. The Falcons under Ryan have been tough to beat at home and Brees and the Saints in the SuperDome have been equally as tough. The team's December meeting likely will establish the likely winner of the division. That meeting happens to be in New Orleans, which gives the Saints the edge. They will lose a couple more games while Atlanta will win a couple more, which is why tiebreakers will be as crucial as anything in this division. Saints ultimately edge out Falcons as Atlanta might be one more year away from passing New Orleans. However, both squads go to postseason.

AFC SOUTH:

Houston Texans: They tend to be the trendy upset pick for a postseason birth in recent years. They had their best season finish at 9-7, but still missed the postseason. Their offense has continued to grow under QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson. The running back position has been experiencing some high turnover and not much is known about HB Arian Foster. If their defense can improve to match their offense, they might be able to effectively challenge the Indianapolis Colts and win the division. DE Mario Williams has proven to be the player they expected with the top pick in 2006 and is a cornerstone of their defense as it looks to improve with LBs Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans behind him. Their secondary might ultimately hurt them in the end.

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts fell short in the Super Bowl to the Saints after a very good 14-2 year. They ultimately took off the last two weeks of the regular season to rest for the postseason and came off rusty at times. QB Peyton Manning still sets the pace for the team. He was able to allow WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie to flourish in the offense by season's end while using his dependable target TE Dallas Clark to both the ball. The health of the team often acts as a secondary pace setter after Manning. A key injured Colt in recent seasons has been FS Bob Sanders. He will likely use his body and that will potentially lead to him not finishing another season. But, the front line led by DE Dwight Freeney continues to put pressure on offenses. They will have to focus more on stopping the run to repeat their 2009 success. One might expect a couple unknown players to emerge again this year as the team as dependable as the sun rising every day.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The team fell off a bit last year going 7-9. They are rather bland, but with guys like HB Maurice Jones-Drew; they normally don't roll over. However, it seemed at times in 2009; they lacked the same passion of previous years under Head Coach Jack Del Rio. WR Mike Sims-Walker is looking to repeat his breakout year of 2009 and allow the team to create a balanced offensive attack. Their defense needs to show signs of improvement and the team missed on a couple opportunities in the draft to improve. Nonetheless, they tend to play the top team in the division, the Colts, very close and that will be important again if they have any chance of winning the division.

Tennessee Titans: After a rough start at 0-6, they finished at 8-8 largely due to the combo of QB Vince Young and HB Chris Johnson, who ran for over 2,000 yards last year. The offensive tandem will need repeat their second halves in order for the team to improve on last year. Big targets like WRs Nate Washington and Kenny Britt can allow Young to grow as a passer as Johnson can act as a dual threat for opposing defenses. Their front line on defense actually looked better without DT Albert Haynesworth, who underachieved in his first year in Washington.

OUTLOOK: This division still looks like the Colts to lose. The Titans, Jaguars, and Texans will all battle for an above .500 record. Jacksonville looks like the most flawed of the three at the moment. Houston's defense and Tennessee's lack of a balanced offense will make it tough for them to pass the Colts. Don't expect a 14-2 record and the health will also shift things a bit. If they can stay healthy or manage the potential injuries that have arisen in recent seasons, they will continue their divisional dominance.

Five Myths about the Bush Tax Cuts

As the November midterm elections near closer, one of the top discussion issues has been what to do with the Bush Era Tax Cuts that will expire come December 31, 2010. Some want them all to expire. Some want only the cuts to the wealthy ($200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples) to expire. And, some want all the cuts to be extended whether they are permanent or temporary.

Throughout the discussion, there have been many points thrown around. Some might be true and some might be stretches of the truth. The Washington Post did an excellent look at some of the myths that are put out there in the media.

The five myths:

1) Extending the tax cuts would be a good way to stimulate the economy:

As a stimulus measure, a one- or two-year extension has one thing going for it -- it would be a big intervention and would provide at least some boost to the economy. But a good stimulus policy can't just be big; it should also offer a lot of bang for the buck. That is, each dollar of government spending or tax cuts should have the largest possible effect on the economy. According to the Congressional Budget Office and other authorities, extending all of the Bush tax cuts would have a small bang for the buck, the equivalent of a 10- to 40-cent increase in GDP for every dollar spent. Why? As the CBO notes, most Bush tax cut dollars go to higher-income households, and these top earners don't spend as much of their income as lower earners. In fact, of 11 potential stimulus policies the CBO recently examined, an extension of all of the Bush tax cuts ties for lowest bang for the buck. (The CBO did not examine the high-income tax cuts separately, but the logic it used suggests that extending those cuts alone would have even less value.) The government could more effectively stimulate the economy by letting the high-income tax cuts expire and using the money for aid to the states, extensions of unemployment insurance benefits and tax credits favoring job creation. Dollar for dollar, each of these measures would have about three times the impact on GDP as continuing the Bush tax cuts.

2) Allowing the high-income tax cuts to expire would hurt small businesses:

One of the most common objections to letting the cuts expire for those in the highest tax brackets is that it would hurt small businesses. As Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) recently put it, allowing the cuts to lapse would amount to "a job-killing tax hike on small business during tough economic times." This claim is misleading. If, as proposed, the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire for the highest earners, the vast majority of small businesses will be unaffected. Less than 2 percent of tax returns reporting small-business income are filed by taxpayers in the top two income brackets -- individuals earning more than about $170,000 a year and families earning more than about $210,000 a year. And just as most small businesses aren't owned by people in the top income brackets, most people in the top income brackets don't rely mainly on small-business income: According to the Tax Policy Center, such proceeds make up a majority of income for about 40 percent of households in the top income bracket and a third of households in the second-highest bracket. If the objective is to help small businesses, continuing the Bush tax cuts on high-income taxpayers isn't the way to go -- it would miss more than 98 percent of small-business owners and would primarily help people who don't make most of their money off those businesses.

3. Making the tax cuts permanent will lead to long-term growth:

A main selling point for the cuts was that, by offering lower marginal tax rates on wages, dividends and capital gains, they would encourage investment and therefore boost economic growth. But when it comes to fostering growth, this isn't the whole story. The tax cuts also raised government debt -- and higher government debt leads to higher interest rates. If estimates of this relationship -- by former Bush Council of Economic Advisers chair Glenn Hubbard and Federal Reserve economist Eric Engen, and byoutgoing Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag and myself -- are accurate, then the tax cuts have raised the cost of making new investments. As the economy recovers and private borrowing rises, the upward pressure on interest rates is likely to grow even stronger. I have used standard growth and investment formulas to calculate that the overall effect of the Bush tax cuts on economic growth has therefore been negative -- and it will continue to be negative if the cuts are extended.

4) The Bush tax cuts are the main cause of the budget deficit:

Although the cuts were large and drove revenue down sharply, they are not the main cause of the sizable deficit that exists today. In 2007, well after the tax cuts took effect, the budget deficit stood at 1.2 percent of GDP. By 2009, it had increased to 9.9 percent of the economy. The Bush tax cuts didn't change between 2007 and 2009, so clearly something else is to blame. The main culprit was the recession -- and the responses it inspired. As the economy shrank, tax revenue plummeted. The cost of the bank bailouts and stimulus packages further added to the deficit. In fact, an analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities indicates that the Bush tax cuts account for only about 25 percent of the deficit this year.

5) Continuing the tax cuts won't doom the long-term fiscal picture; entitlements are the real problem:

One theory holds that the country's long-term budget shortfall is "just" an entitlements problem, the result of rising costs associated with growing Social Security rolls and increased health-care spending (via Medicare and Medicaid). Republicans like this idea because it plays down tax increases as a potential solution. Democrats like it because it makes the recent health-care package seem like even more of a triumph. But it just isn't true. The deficits we face over the next decade reflect a fundamental imbalance between spending and revenue, one that goes beyond entitlements. Based on projections by the CBO, Alan Auerbach of the University of California at Berkeley and myself, among others, even if the economy returns to full employment by 2014 and stays there for the rest of the decade, the continuation of current fiscal policies, including the Bush tax cuts, would lead to a national debt in the range of 90 percent of GDP by 2020. That's already the highest rate since just after World War II -- and Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security aren't expected to hit their steepest spending increases until after 2020. According to these same projections, the yearly deficit would rise to 6 to 7 percent of GDP by 2020. The Bush tax cuts would account for a significant chunk of this, considering that in each year they are in effect, the revenue lost because of them amounts to nearly 2 percent of GDP. Compounding the problem: By increasing the government's debt, the tax cuts have already led to higher interest payments on that debt. So even if all of the cuts expire on Dec. 31, we will still be paying for them for years to come.

NFL Preseason Preview: NFC North/AFC North

NFC NORTH:

Chicago Bears: They finished 2009 at 7-9. The Bears brought in Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz to hopefully give the Bears' offense and QB Jay Cutler a spark. Cutler has been a shadow of his Denver self, but maybe a new system will limit his turnovers and create more offensive explosion. HB Matt Forte took a couple steps backwards after his breakout rookie year and the Bears added HB Chester Taylor to give Forte some reps off and Taylor can run and catch very well as was shown during his time in Minnesota. Cutler does not have a big time receiver, but young players with potential like Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, and Devin Aromashodu. Aromashodu might be the best of the bunch. Hester has not been as lethal as a returner since he was asked to do more as receiver. The offensive line was not especially great last year so that might be a worry. TE Greg Olsen is part of my young tight ends on the rise to watch. The defense is not as strong as it was 5 years ago, but still features MLB Brian Urlacher and DT Tommie Harris. Urlacher might be under the radar as he might be losing a bit of a step. The defense added DE Julius Peppers and he should provide them with a pass rush, which they have been lacking.

Detroit Lions: They went 2-14 last year after their 0-16 season. QB Matthew Stafford went through the normal rookie struggles, but has a cannon of an arm and poise and confidence to keep them in games. They drafted HB Jahvid Best, who can a Rookie of the Year candidate and explosive weapon on this offense. When he is in open space, he is lethal. And speaking of open space, WR Calvin Johnson is a beast with his size and skill. He will aid in Stafford's development in year 2. WR Nate Burleson and TE Brandon Pettigrew will also be key players for Stafford. And they will all have enough time with an improved offense line. The defense is still a liability, but with DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, whom they acquired from Tennessee, and Ndamukong Suh, whom they drafted with the 2nd pick this year. The two provide size, strength, and speed on the line. S Louis Delmas has the potential to be a Bob Sanders type of player for this defense. The Lions should show signs of improvements, but it might be about small steps and minor progress for a team that has struggled to get 4 wins in a season for much of the last 10 years.

Green Bay Packers: They went 11-5 last year before losing to Arizona in an overtime thriller in the Wildcard Round. QB Aaron Rodgers displayed potential in 2008 then showed even more in 2009. In 2010, he might prove he is a top 5 quarterback in the NFL. WRs Donald Driver and Greg Jennings will benefit from him and vice versa. As will TE Jermichael Finley, who seems poised for a breakout year in this offense. HB Ryan Grant should be able to provide the necessary balance and 1,000 yards. While an offensive line that was shaky for the first half of 2009; improved down the stretch and they drafted OT Bryan Bulaga from Iowa to give them insurance on that line. As good as the offense is, the defense was very good last year and should be close to the same in 2010. CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson are great at coverage and tackling. LB Clay Matthews shined as a rookie. This team is poised to not only capture the division crown, but be one of a few teams that are serious Super Bowl contenders.

Minnesota Vikings: They went 12-4 last season before falling to the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Game. They could of should of won if they did not get the too many men on the field penalty and kicked a close field goal. QB Brett Favre is in limbo again if he wants to return for a 20th NFL season. With him, they are a better team, but QB Tavaris Jackson is capable of getting them to at least .500 if not 10-6. HB Adrian Peterson is still the workhorse of the offense and will need to improve on his fumbling. That might be his only weakness right now. They drafted HB Toby Geirhart to replace Chester Taylor and he can provide most of everything Taylor did with younger legs. WR Sidney Rice had a breakout year with Favre as QB. He should be able to repeat that and WR Percy Harvin can do damage in many ways. TE Visanthe Shiancoe was a redzone machine last year and could do the same for this offense. DE Jared Allen continues to anchor and tough defensive line with Kevin and Pat Williams in the middle eating up space.

OUTLOOK: Lions will be better, but still not anywhere close to competing, Bears should be better, but how much, Vikings' fortunes could depend greatly on Favre, and Packers look poised to be nearly unstoppable. This division will be about the Vikings and Packers again. Both should make the playoffs. Which wins the division? Edge for now goes to Packers.

AFC NORTH:

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens took a small step back last year going 9-7, but that did stop them from springing a wildcard round upset of the New England Patriots in Foxsboro. QB Joe Flacco took another step forward in his progression at quarterback after his rookie year with a dependable yet shallow at times group of receivers. MLB Ray Lewis and SS Ed Reed continue to be key parts of the defense, but are aging and depending more on guys like NT Haloti Ngata to put pressure on opposing offenses. The AFC North was a battle last year and expect somewhat of a similar feel, which favors a team like Baltimore. The team suffered a setback this offseason with the loss of draftee LB Sergio Kindle out of Texas. Kindle is likely out for the year and will cost the team a chance to groom him as a heir apparent to Lewis. Look for HB Ray Rice to join Flacco in terms of taking another step forward a creating a QB-HB duo that will impact that offense for the next decade.

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals surprised many including some of their fans by going 10-6 and winning the division. Along the way they swept their divisional games and showed glimpses of the team that made the postseason in 2005. They lost the last game of the year to the New York Jets then fell to them again in the wildcard round. The team adds WR Terrell Owens and CB Adam Jones as potential missing pieces from last year's team in hopes of getting over the hump. There could be weekly updates on whether QB Carson Palmer is getting the ball enough to Owens and WR Chad OchoCinco. Both receivers view themselves as top targets and the one getting less catches could force a wedge into the team's unity. The defense used to be a liability, but under Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer; they had one of the best turnover rates and overall defenses in 2009. If they can play somewhere close to that in 2010, they might have the balanced squad they have searched for under Marvin Lewis' reign. The addition of TE Jermaine Gresham in the draft will also provide the team with a young blocker and hidden target for Palmer.

Cleveland Browns: It was another tough year in Cleveland as the team went 5-11. They continue to figure out who the best option at quarterback is. Both QB Derek Anderson and QB Brady Quinn are gone and in their place is QB Jake Delhomme and QB Seneca Wallace. New Browns President Mike Holgren hopes that either Delhomme's playoff experience or Wallace's young talent that he watched while in Seattle will be what puts Cleveland back on the right track. The correct answer might end up being choice C: 3rd Round draft pick, QB Colt McCoy out of Texas. McCoy led the Longhorns to four successful years during his tenure after QB Vince Young left. He was a shoulder injury away from possibly leading the team to a national title. The team will also have HB Peyton Hillis joining their backfield as part of the Quinn trade. He will be mixed into the position shuffle there. It is hard not to see question marks at other spots beyond QB and HB. It will likely be a project year in Cleveland, but Holgren will figure out the best fits for the team and have them taking valuable steps forward.

Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Ben Roethlisberger will be out for the first four games due to a suspension and how the team handles his absence could very likely set the tone for the year. If they struggle, they might fall short of even their 9-7 record of a year ago. SS Troy Polamalu was out at times last year and the team is night and day with and without him. The combination of him and LB James Harrison set the tone for the defense that still continues under Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau to be a top 5 defense in many ways. Getting back to running the ball with HB Rashad Mendenhall and creating a fierce defense will be a big part of the team improving even without Big Ben for the first month.

OUTLOOK: The Browns will be lucky to win 4 or 5 games again and look for McCoy to take the reins from Delhomme at some point. The Bengals look to have the same team with additions that could put them over the top, but sweeping your division is tough to repeat and they will need to play better against non division squads to repeat 2009. That might be too much to ask for with likely distractions plus a very good Ravens teams and still dangerous Steelers team to deal with. That is why once again the division will come down to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The difference will likely be the absence of Roethlisberger in September when the two will meet. They tend to compete in contests that end with less than a touchdown between the two squads. Flacco and Rice take another step forward with Pro Bowl caliber years that add to a defense in Baltimore that even without Reed will still stay steady. How the two play against Cincinnati and Cleveland and common opponents could impact tiebreakers as it will be close with Baltimore edging out Pittsburgh for the division while the other wins the wildcard.

NFL Preseason Preview: NFC East/AFC East

NFC EAST:

Dallas Cowboys: Last season went 11-5 and won the NFC East and lost in Divisional Playoffs to Minnesota Vikings. They are hoping to be the first team to host the Super Bowl this year and finally got a playoff win last year after 13 years of failures. QB Tony Romo made some strides last year, but must continue to show growth and that he is a top quarterback. His mistakes have been known to cost the Cowboys games in the past and will under radar again. They look to a healthy 3-headed monster backfield with Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice. None look to be a big 1,000 yard back, but together they can pile up over 1,500 yards and take pressure off Romo. Both Romo and the backs do need to be worried because if this time features a weakness, it is their offensive line. LT Doug Free might be the best member of that line and he is yet to prove his ability. If the team under performs this year, this might be why. Romo might have his best receiver tandem in Miles Austin and rookie Dez Bryant. Both can cause problems for defenses. Bryant is out hurt and might miss the first game or two. Thus he will probably start a little slow, but if he catches on; he gives them a threat they have been seeking. And if WR Roy Williams can recapture what he was early on during his time with the Lions; then this offense will have multiple weapons. TE Jason Witten had a bit of a down year, but should be that middle of the field presence that enables the team to move the ball. A major reason for the Cowboys' success late last year was their improved play on defense. They shut down the Saints and then quieted any time of offense the Eagles had consecutive weeks including a playoff win. LB DeMarcus Ware will probably be good for 15 sacks and a lot pressure and DT Jay Ratiff up the middle has been a disturbance in recent years. And do not count out veteran LB Keith Brooking. His leadership and presence makes the whole defense better. They will start an unproven kicker and could be a work in progress at position that decides some games.

New York Giants: Last season they finished at 8-8 and missed the playoffs. QB Eli Manning had a career year and should be able to an equally impressive year. WR Steve Smith had a break out year and gives the Giants everything they had with Plaxico Burress minus the size. That is where WR Hakeem Nicks comes in. The tandem can give Manning the weapons he needs to thrive. Problems might occur within the backfield. HB Ahmad Bradshaw could have a breakout season as the featured back, but that does not sit well with HB Brandon Jacobs. Off the field problems might arise and that can easily carry over to how the team plays. As long as the offensive line can stay healthy, they should be able to provide necessary protection. But like last year and previous years under Tom Coughlin, this team's success is based on their defense. They looked like a shell of themselves for much of the second half of the year letting other offenses control the game. They added S Antrel Rolle and he will upgrade a secondary that looked awful last year. Their linebacking corp loses Antonio Pierce. His absence will be missed with his play and leadership. However, they did add Keith Bullock and will fill that gap. Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck along with rookie Justin Pierre-Paul will give the Giants their dangerous front line if healthy. Perry Fewell should mix all these defensive guys and improve last year's defensive woes.

Philadelphia Eagles: They finished last year at 11-5 and lost to the Cowboys in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs. They ended the year with back to back bad losses to divisional foe Dallas. They traded franchise QB Donovan McNabb in the offseason and now turn the keys over to Kevin Kolb. He has showed some promise in his limited again in Philly. It will be year filled with growing pains. He will have good games and bad ones. The Eagles will probably have to rest their fortunes on his success as Mike Vick is yet to return to his previous form. For Kolb, he will have two fast threats in wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Both will allow the Eagles to spread the field and if TE Brent Celek can take the next step this year; they have a balanced passing game. The once loaded Eagles' backfield now features LeSean McCoy, who will have to prove he can carry the load. Defensively they took a bit of a step back a year ago in their first year without Jim Johnson at the helm as defensive coordinator. They will have LB Stewart Bradley back and healthy after missing all of 2009. They added LB Ernie Sims, who will be able to play his aggressive style via the Eagles' defensive schemes. DE Trent Cole provides good pressure on the outside and CB Asante Samuel still has the ability to play tough one on one coverage.

Washington Redskins: They finished last season at 4-12 and have made some nice moves in the offseason. They brought in Mike Shanahan as coach and traded for QB Donovan McNabb ending Jason Campbell's reign as they traded him to Oakland. McNabb breaks experience and a winning attitude and culture to Washington. He will look to prove that he still has a lot left and bring the Redskins back to prominence. The team loaded up on running backs as they return Clinton Portis and brought in Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. If all three are healthy, they might give the Redskins a 3-headed monster of former 1,000 yard backs. Unfortunately for McNabb, just as he was getting capable receivers in Philly; he enters Washington without much. Deja vu for him. WR Santana Moss is still a deep threat, but slowly losing a step or two. They feature a handful of unproven and under achieving receivers. However, TE Chris Cooley can be a better version of Brent Celek from a year ago. The offensive line in front of McNabb is fairly young and has shown weaknesses in recent years; something McNabb must keep in mind. Plus they will be going through some transition, but if they gel; he has a big line in front of him. The defense has shown flashes of being a tough unit. LB Brian Orakpo is a nice young player and LB London Fletcher is a veteran presence with a lot of heart. DT Albert Haynesworth has been nothing short of an annoyance for the team. One has to wonder how long he will be with the team, but if he can resolve the issues at hand; he gives a monster in the middle.

OUTLOOK: Redskins are rebuilding, Eagles take a step back, Giants improve, and Cowboys flirt with greatness at times. Cowboys look to be the early favorite, but aren't a runaway. Whomever finishes second has a good chance to nab a wildcard. It will take 11 wins again to claim this division.

AFC EAST:

Buffalo Bills: They finished last year at 6-10. This team is staring into a black hole that looks to be another tough year. QB Trent Edwards returns after an up and down; injury-ridden season. He will probably be running for his life a lot with a shell of an offensive line. If he is smart, he will utilize the three backs behind him. HBs Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are power backs who can pound the ball, while rookie C.J. Spiller gives them multiple dimensions in the backfield and he might make a case for Rookie of the Year. WR Lee Evans is almost invisible in Buffalo as he gets double teams because there is no other big threat. The defense has potential to slow down opposing offenses a bit so games aren't blow outs. S Jarius Byrd can be poised for a breakout second year.

Miami Dolphins: They finished 7-9 last season. They will enter a three team race again with the Jets and the Patriots. QB Chad Henne will be the starter from the beginning this year and showed he might be one the young quarterbacks to watch in 2010 and going forward. He got a really nice weapon in WR Brandon Marshall from Denver. Marshall has posted multiple 100 catch, 1,300 yard seasons. Expect similar numbers in year one in Miami. Young receivers like WR Devone Bess allow Henne to have multiple options on short routes. However, the backfield tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams present some questions. Brown has not be healthy and Williams is well over 30; when running backs "break down". But, if they used as they have been in the Wildcat; the team should get max production as they will need to be kept fresh. Jake Long and Vernon Carey give the Dolphins solid tackles to protect Henne. Miami's defense added LB Karlos Dansby from Arizona and drafted Koa Misi from Utah. Both will improve upon their defense.

New England Patriots: They went 10-6 last season winning the AFC East before falling in a lopsided loss to the Ravens in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs. QB Tom Brady is still at the helm and that is enough to warrant consideration for a return to the postseason. He should play a little more consistent in year two after a major injury. Plus, he looks to be getting WR Wes Welker back in time for game one; something many did not expect. Not to mention, WR Randy Moss is a big, fast target; who will probably be good for 10-15 touchdowns. The team drafted TEs Rob Gronkowski from Arizona and Aaron Hernandez from Florida. The two can provide for excellent targets for brady ala the two tight end sets. The backfield is not as good as it used to be with HB Laurence Maroney still trying to reclaim form and HBs Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk aging. G Logan Mankins has had some contract disputes this offseason and if he is not around; the offensive line loses a bit of punch. Speaking of lacking punch, the once proud defense in New England is a combo of old, young, and slow. Besides DT Vince Wilfork in the middle and LB Jerod Mayo behind him, the defense isn't spectacular and will need to outscore teams. CB Devin McCourty out of Rutgers and returning S Patrick Chung can be future stars, but aren't there yet.

New York Jets: They went 9-7 last year and lost in the AFC Championship Game to the Colts. Right out the gate, Rex Ryan had the Jets thinking championship and has not stopped talking since the season ended. He is building up a lot of hype for this team. Almost to the point of overconfidence. QB Mark Sanchez will enter his second year at the helm and will need to develop upon minor success last year late. The team released HB Thomas Jones after he ran for 1,400 yards and brought in LaDanian Tomlinson to replace him and back up Shonne Greene. Unpolished players at quarterback and running back might hurt the team at times. Problem children Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes will asked to do a lot to aid Sanchez along with TE Dustin Keller is an up and coming tight end. Edwards and Holmes are Pro Bowl caliber players as long as they are on the field and focused. However, the defense will need to set the tone if this team is make a serious playoff run. They added DE/LB Jason Taylor and DT Kris Jenkins should be healthy. LB Calvin Pace is a key piece in the front seven. But, the ongoing problems signing and getting CB Darrelle Revis might make or break the team's ceiling. CBs Antonio Cromartie and rookie Kyle Wilson from Boise State are both very good, but not on Revis' level. They might be AFC version of the Cowboys in terms of too much hype for their own good and will not be under the radar this year.

OUTLOOK: Bills will struggle to get anywhere close to .500, Dolphins are not getting enough attention and might steal the division, Jets will be good, but just how good, and Patriots should remain consistent as much as the leaves always fall during Autumn. This to me is a three team race. New England has the edge by default, but enter December the three teams will be close and it would not surprise me if the Dolphins win and the Patriots claim the wildcard with New York watching and still talking.