7 Signs 2012 might be tougher for GOP

Last November could be seen a major rebound election for the Republican Party after two rough electoral cycles in 2006 and 2008. Republicans are already gearing up for 2012 and their mission of making President Barack Obama a one-term president. However, presidential election years drive more voters to the polls and Obama could see huge chunks of his supporters turn out unlike 2010. He will certainly need to sell his agenda to Independents who flipped, but the road ahead generally gives the incumbent an edge despite a multitude of circumstances. The rough economy will continue to draw the most attention from voters especially those not linked to either party's base. Despite claims that President Obama's agenda of the last two years was the biggest negative factor for him and the Democratic Party, the economy probably caused non-Tea Party member anger. If the unemployment could have been lowered near the 8% that some in President Obama's economic council predicted, election results might not have been as brutal as there is a slight chance the Democrats could have maintained control of the U.S. House.

Nonetheless, both parties must quickly analyze exit polls and opinion polls for some clues to how voters made up their minds and what both parties could do to get an electoral result that they would prefer in 2012.

Looking ahead to 2012, a recent article by the Hill could offer some perspective of the road ahead for the GOP in unseating President Obama. The Hill lists 7 reasons that could shape the next election and provide a challenge that some might not be ready for in less than two years.

The list includes:

1) Incumbents are tough to beat: Presidential incumbents have inherent advantages, winning three of the last contests. Presidents Reagan and Clinton were politically damaged by the midterm elections in their first terms, but two years later, both cruised to victory. Obama called the Nov. 2, 2010, election a “shellacking,” changed his governing approach and Congress had one of the most productive lame-duck sessions in recent memory.

2) A move to the center by Obama: During the lame-duck, 2012 GOP hopefuls broke with Republican congressional leaders on the tax cut deal they brokered with Obama. That trend will continue this year. Generally speaking, compromises with the president don’t play well with the base. But House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) both have strong political incentives to work with the White House on a range of issues, including trade, education and perhaps energy. As Republican candidates woo conservatives in Iowa and New Hampshire, Obama will try to burnish his standing with the independents who backed him in 2008 and then voted for Republican congressional candidates last year.

3) The economy is showing signs of life: Improvements in the economy always help boost the party in power. So if the nation’s unemployment rate continues to drop, that will help the president and protect Boehner’s new majority in the House.

4) Presidential elections are usually more about personality than policies. Voters like to like their president. George W. Bush was deemed more likeable than Vice President Al Gore in 2000. Four years later, Democrats enjoyed advantages over Bush on key policy issues, but Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) didn’t connect with voters as much as Bush did. Obama’s personality was key to his stunning win over Hillary Clinton in the primary and later to his triumph over Senator John McCain (R-AZ). Throughout the latter half of 2009 and last year, polls showed that the public was skeptical of Obama’s policies. But independents didn’t turn on Obama personally as they did against Bush in 2006.

5) Democrats still have fresh memories of Bush. Liberal Democrats were furious with Obama’s deal with the GOP on tax cuts in the lame-duck session. Those intraparty tensions will flare in 2011 as Obama seeks to curb federal spending and move long-stalled trade deals. But 2012 will likely be a different story as Democrats focus on the their real political opponent – the Republican presidential candidate.

6) RNC debt. The Republican National Committee is $20 million in debt and has to reestablish its reputation with donors after many of them put away their checkbooks during Michael Steele’s controversial term. The Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, has $15.5 million in debt. While some Obama donors are upset with his move to the center, the president’s fundraising skills are a significant asset. The news here for Republicans, however, could easily turn. Outside GOP-allied groups, such as American Crossroads, tapped into anti-Obama fervor in 2010 and will undoubtedly be a force in this cycle as well.

7) People like divided government. In recent years, both Democrats and Republicans have overreached when controlling the executive and legislative branches. In 2006, Democrats called for a check and balance on Bush and won control of Congress. Republicans followed the same playbook in 2010 on Obama and it worked. In 2012, Republicans will have to come up with a new game plan because they have a comfortable majority in the House and have a good shot at winning the Senate. Polls indicate that voters are still wary of the GOP and Republican lawmakers acknowledge they have a lot of work to do before they regain voters’ trust.


Time will how big each will play in 2012, but all provide an edge for Obama and make the climb for the Republicans regaining the White House a long journey filled with more challenges than they faced in 2010.