A presidential winning strategy

The 2012 presidential election is a little more than a year away. The GOP field is starting to finally solidify and there will debate after debate as they try to distinguish themselves from one another and target President Barack Obama at the same time. The president will have a much harder road ahead of him going into 2012 compared to 2008, but there might be some promising news in the form of a tried and proven reelection math strategy.

Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, has created an election formula that has correctly called each election since President Ronald Reagan's 1984 reelection. For Lichtman,

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose."

In 1981, Lichtman developed a 13 Keys guide. Areas like incumbency and a scandal-free administration give him an advantage while a bit of a charisma and leadership challenge he is encountering this time around on top of issues like the Affordable Care Act make his road harder.

Under Lichtman's keys, the president or incumbent party needs to avoid six or more of the keys going against them in order to stave off defeat. Lichtman adds,

“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit. They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama.

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.
4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.”
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.

College Football Week 2 Power Rankings

Due to the top 5 matchup to kickoff the year, one team was guaranteed to drop after just one week. That unfortunately for them was Oregon; the runner-up in last year's national title game. Besides that other top teams were able to avoid potential early stumbles as most romped their way to victory. Auburn, the team that beat Oregon, probably looked possibly the weakest out of those in top 20 (besides Notre Dame of course). Not surprisingly, the top two teams; Oklahoma and Alabama; had little trouble maintaining their rankings heading into Week 2.

Now for the Week 2 rankings (with previous week):

1)(1) Oklahoma (BYE)
2)(2) Alabama (at Penn State)
3)(5) LSU (vs Northwestern State)
4)(4) Stanford (at Duke)
5)(6) Boise State (BYE)
6)(7) South Carolina (at Georgia)
7)(8) Florida State (vs Charleston Southern)
8)(9) Oklahoma State (vs Arizona)
9)(14) Wisconsin (vs Oregon State)
10)(3) Oregon (vs Nevada)
11)(10) Texas A&M (BYE)
12)(11) Nebraska(vs Fresno State)
13)(12) Virginia Tech (at East Carolina)
14)(13) Ohio State (vs Toledo)
15)(15) Arkansas (vs New Mexico)
16)(20) Mississippi State (at #21 Auburn)
17)(16) Michigan State (vs Florida Atlantic)
18)(21) Florida (vs UAB)
19)(NR) Baylor(BYE)
20)(23) Arizona State (vs #22 Missouri)
21)(19) Auburn (vs #16 Mississippi State)
22)(24) Missouri (at #20 Arizona State)
23)(NR) West Virginia (vs Norfolk State)
24)(22) USC (vs Utah)
25)(NR) Texas (vs Brigham Young)

Dropped from the rankings: #17 TCU, #18 Notre Dame, #25 Georgia

Next best 5:

1) Penn State (vs #2 Alabama)
2) Georgia (vs #6 South Carolina)
3) TCU (at Air Force)
4) USF (vs Ball State)
5) Iowa (at Iowa State)