Probably every field has some myths and theories. Politics and conversely history have some of their own. This week a collection of 11 political myths was published by CNN's Ed Hornick. Here are those 11 for your consideration and understanding.
1) The myth: George Washington wasn't the first U.S. president.
The facts: Theorists say it was actually John Hanson, the president of the Continental Congress, who served as the nation's first president, not George Washington. That claim is simply false. The office of "President of the United States" was created under the Constitution in 1787, long after Hanson died.
2) The rumor: George W. Bush has the lowest IQ of all the presidents.
The facts: A report by the Lovenstein Institute in 2001 found that George W. Bush had the lowest IQ of any president in the past 50 years. The report was discovered on the website lovenstein.org. The problem? There is no Lovenstein Institute and no report.
Case solved.
3) The myth: Washington Redskins always predict the presidential winner.
The facts: The claim is that, since 1936, the outcome of the Washington Redskins' last home game before the presidential election has predicted the outcome of who wins the White House. The way it works: If the Redskins lose, the incumbent party loses; if they win, the incumbent wins. Although the circumstances have worked out for 17 elections in modern history, it is just another political superstition that pundits love to use -- or maybe to fill time. In 2004, the Redskins lost to the Green Bay Packers 28-14 on October 31. Under the myth, incumbent President George W. Bush should have lost to Democratic Sen. John Kerry. That was not the case. Kerry lost, too.
4) The myth: Sarah Palin didn't give birth to baby Trig.
The facts: Soon after Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was announced as Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential running mate, rumors abounded that her newborn son, Trig, who was born with Down syndrome, was not hers. The McCain campaign, along with Palin herself, shot down the rumor. Conspiracy theorists, now called "Trig Truthers," point to photos taken in late March of that year in which Palin's stomach appears, they say, to be flat -- not the image of an expectant mother. But other photos show her with a round stomach. Then there's the question of why Palin waited so long to seek medical attention after her water broke during a trip to Texas. Reports indicate that it took more than 15 hours for her to get to a hospital after flying back to Alaska. Some claimed that the baby, born in April, might have been that of teenage daughter Bristol. But Bristol gave birth to her own child, Tripp, in December. Myth busted.
5) The theory: The government was behind the September 11 attacks.
The facts: The September 11 terrorist attacks have become a lightning rod for conspiracy theorists who have offered alternative explanations to the horror of that day. Some of the theories include that the U.S. government was behind the entire terror plot, including taking down the World Trade Center, in order to take the country to war in the Middle East; the Pentagon was not hit by a commercial plane but rather by a missile; and United Flight 93 did not crash after passengers stormed the cockpit, but an Air Force jet took it out. Popular Mechanics magazine looked into the claims and was able to "debunk each of these assertions with hard evidence and a healthy dose of common sense."
6) The myth: Sen. John McCain had an illegitimate black child.
The facts: There was an effort during the 2000 GOP presidential primaries to start a smear campaign against John McCain, who was running a tight race against George W. Bush in South Carolina, saying the Arizona senator had an illegitimate black child.
In an interview with NBC's "Today Show" last year, political operative Karl Rove, who was said to have been behind the story, shot down the claim. He said he had "nothing to do" with the rumor, adding that it came from "a professor at Bob Jones University" and not the Bush campaign. McCain and his wife, Cindy, have an adopted daughter from Bangladesh. Bush ended up winning South Carolina 53% to 42%.
7) The charge: The Clintons were responsible for the death of Vince Foster.
The facts: In summer 1993, Vince Foster, deputy White House counsel in the Clinton administration and close friend to the first couple, was found dead in a federal park in northern Virginia. Investigators ruled it a suicide. In 1994, the Arkansas Project -- an effort to discredit the Clintons -- raised the idea that the couple was responsible for the murder of Foster and others who may have had incriminating evidence against the former Arkansas governor. Three investigations into the death turned up no evidence of a link. The Clintons have emphatically denied any involvement. The rumor, however, found its way into the media and GOP circles.
8) The charge: Rep. Gary Condit was involved in Chandra Levy's disappearance.
The facts: The 2001 disappearance of Chandra Levy, an intern for the federal Bureau of Prisons, drew national attention after her parents discovered a connection with then-Rep. Gary Condit, D-California. He was never a suspect in the case but was questioned intensively for details as to Levy's whereabouts. Condit was also rumored to have had a sexual relationship with Levy an allegation he repeatedly refused to answer. But Condit's semen was found on her underwear, according to an FBI biologist who testified at a trial in 2010. Levy's body was found in a Washington park more than a year after her disappearance. Salvadoran immigrant Ingmar Guandique -- who was in prison for another crime -- was convicted in her killing and sentenced in 2011 to 60 years in prison.
9) The theory: Someone besides Lee Harvey Oswald killed JFK.
The facts: Decades after President John F. Kennedy's assassination in Dallas, the shooting and the events that followed continue to fascinate many Americans.
Much of that interest rests on the theory that the assassination was the result of a conspiracy -- not the act of a lone gunman, Lee Harvey Oswald. Theories include that Kennedy "was killed by CIA agents acting either out of anger over the Bay of Pigs or at the behest of Vice President Lyndon Johnson," by the KGB or by "mobsters mad at Kennedy's brother for initiating the prosecution of organized crime rings," according to Time magazine. But the Warren Commission, established to investigate the assassination, found that Oswald was the lone gunman -- and that there was not a second shooter.
10) The myth: President Zachary Taylor was poisoned to death.
The facts: Taylor, the nation's 12th president, was rumored to have died after being poisoned with arsenic, possibly by his wife. But the claim was debunked by DNA scientists in 1991. Medical officials in Kentucky ruled that he was not poisoned but rather died because of natural causes, such as gastroenteritis. The results were obtained after testing Taylor's tissue samples. "The question of whether he was poisoned or not will no longer hang over us," Coroner Richard F. Greathouse of Jefferson County told the New York Times. "We've put that to rest once and for all."
Arsenic was found, but state officials said it was in levels too low to be considered deadly.
11) The myth: Barack Obama wasn't born in the U.S.
The facts: CNN has investigated these claims by "birthers" who say the nation's 44th president was not born in America and thus is not eligible to be president. The Obama team and the state of Hawaii released a certification of live birth that documents the president's birth on August 4, 1961, in Honolulu. This is not the original birth certificate but is a valid legal document. In Hawaii and other states, original birth certificates are not released when requested later. The certificate, officials say, allows a person born in Hawaii to get a driver's license, purchase land and obtain a U.S. passport. The "birthers" claim that Obama doesn't want to show the birth certificate because it may claim that he wasn't born in America. But state officials -- including Gov. Neil Abercrombie and Dr. Chiyome Fukino, the former director of Hawaii's Department of Health -- said they saw the document, and Obama was born in the U.S. In addition, his birth announcement appeared in two Honolulu papers. The announcements are provided to the newspapers by the Department of Health and not members of the public, according to officials.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Monday, April 4, 2011
Foreign Policy v. the Economy: Where should Obama focus in 2012
Each electoral cycle, candidates must figure out where to position their priorities when it comes to the issues. Sometimes it is based on the candidate's opponent(s). Sometimes it is based largely on their strengths and accomplishments. As President Obama stands roughly 18 months away from the 2012 presidential election, he must decide where to focus his campaign on. He has had accomplishments and setbacks during his two plus years in office. The New York Times' Michael Shear posed the question of where President Obama should focus more on in 2012: foreign policy or the top issue facing the country, the economy. Whomever emerges as the Republican challenger to Obama and the White House could influence where Obama puts effort and focus on. Nonetheless, despite the candidate, there are arguments that could be made for both.
As Shear presents, the case for putting the primary focus on foreign policy is:
1) The lack of foreign policy credentials on the Republican side is a historical aberration for a party that has traditionally gravitated toward candidates whose primary credentials relate to America’s role abroad. (The two with some experience this year: Jon Huntsman, the former governor of Utah and the current China ambassador; and John Bolton, the former United Nations ambassador. Neither has said for sure he is running.)
2) While the economy is improving slowly, many economists predict that unemployment is likely to still be above 8 percent by the time Election Day rolls around. Asking to be returned to the White House because things could have been worse is a tough message to sell, as the 2010 midterm elections showed.
3) Arguments over the debt and the deficit look deadlocked and politically dangerous, at least in the near term. Already, Democrats are split as to whether voters will reward or punish politicians for confronting Social Security and Medicare directly. Meanwhile, most Republicans have refused to even entertain the idea of raising revenue, otherwise known as taxes. Mr. Obama is likely to be caught in the middle of that issue.
4) Shifting the conversation toward foreign policy heightens the contrast between a candidate with presidential stature and his out-of-office rivals. The images of Mr. Obama in the Situation Room or standing shoulder-to-shoulder with world leaders make the Republicans who are campaigning in Iowa look small.
5) Mr. Obama generally earns higher marks for his adventures overseas than he does for his domestic accomplishments. He has made good on his promise to begin a significant troop withdrawal in Iraq. He has negotiated a nuclear arms treaty with Russia. However, the ongoing war in Afghanistan, where the president has increased American involvement, has become increasingly unpopular.
6) A decade after the September 11 attacks, there have been no successful terrorist attacks on his watch — a statistic that was often cited by President Bush as evidence that his administration was winning the war on terror.
Just as those make a case for focusing primarily on foreign policy, the case for putting the primary focus on the economy is:
1) The truth about wars and disasters is that they command attention at first, and later fade as the public turns back to their daily concerns. It’s already happening with the crisis in Japan. And the conflict in the Middle East and North Africa will seem more distant if forces from the United States really do hand over operations to European and regional forces.
2) Even when they are in the news, foreign events are unpredictable and difficult to manage. Mr. Obama found that out when he pledged on his first day in office to close the detention facility at Guantánamo Bay. It remains open today chiefly because the administration has had difficulty finding allies willing to take the detainees into their countries. Basing a campaign on the whims of foreign interactions would be dangerous at best.
3) The economy continues to struggle, but the news has been steadily, if slowly, improving on the economic front, with more than a year of modest job growth each month and economic measures like the markets, consumer spending and income growth have been moving in a positive direction. That improvement has not yet translated into a lot of optimism among the public. In an Associated Press-GfK poll released on Wednesday, Americans said they were growing more pessimistic — not less — about the future. But the same survey suggested that Mr. Obama was not the target of the pessimism and that his approval ratings over all and on the economy were holding steady, at 50 percent and 47 percent respectively. (Other recent polls, however, have shown his approval on the economy lower.)
4) Even if the president wanted to talk about foreign affairs, the political conversation in Washington is being driven by lawmakers on Capitol Hill, who are gearing up for a yearlong battle over the nation’s debt and deficits. Mr. Obama is all but certain to be drawn into that conversation.
5) The president’s first year in office largely set the tone for his administration, whether he liked it or not. The stimulus program, the bank and auto bailouts, the fights overfinancial regulation legislation and health care provided Mr. Obama with a record that he now has to sell to the public.
6) The lack of foreign policy credentials for most of the likely 2012 Republican candidates offers an opportunity for Mr. Obama. But it also means that the men and women who are running for the Republican nomination will focus on what they know: domestic issues like immigration, gas prices, job losses, taxes, government spending and the debt. Candidates like Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota, or Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, will all seize on the economy’s weaknesses to call for an end to Mr. Obama’s administration. His challenge will be to construct a narrative that pushes back against their charges.
7) The 2010 midterm campaign offered Mr. Obama a clear example of what can happen when Democrats don’t successfully control that narrative. Republicans captured the House and made big gains in the Senate almost exclusively by tapping into anger about the economy, health care and jobs.
Much of what candidates do during a campaign depend heavily on whomever one's challenger(s) is, but also what issues grip the public's attention and concern. Both foreign policy and the economy will be major parts of presidential debates and the campaign cycle. How Obama decides to juggle them and other issues could impact how the election might unfold.
As Shear presents, the case for putting the primary focus on foreign policy is:
1) The lack of foreign policy credentials on the Republican side is a historical aberration for a party that has traditionally gravitated toward candidates whose primary credentials relate to America’s role abroad. (The two with some experience this year: Jon Huntsman, the former governor of Utah and the current China ambassador; and John Bolton, the former United Nations ambassador. Neither has said for sure he is running.)
2) While the economy is improving slowly, many economists predict that unemployment is likely to still be above 8 percent by the time Election Day rolls around. Asking to be returned to the White House because things could have been worse is a tough message to sell, as the 2010 midterm elections showed.
3) Arguments over the debt and the deficit look deadlocked and politically dangerous, at least in the near term. Already, Democrats are split as to whether voters will reward or punish politicians for confronting Social Security and Medicare directly. Meanwhile, most Republicans have refused to even entertain the idea of raising revenue, otherwise known as taxes. Mr. Obama is likely to be caught in the middle of that issue.
4) Shifting the conversation toward foreign policy heightens the contrast between a candidate with presidential stature and his out-of-office rivals. The images of Mr. Obama in the Situation Room or standing shoulder-to-shoulder with world leaders make the Republicans who are campaigning in Iowa look small.
5) Mr. Obama generally earns higher marks for his adventures overseas than he does for his domestic accomplishments. He has made good on his promise to begin a significant troop withdrawal in Iraq. He has negotiated a nuclear arms treaty with Russia. However, the ongoing war in Afghanistan, where the president has increased American involvement, has become increasingly unpopular.
6) A decade after the September 11 attacks, there have been no successful terrorist attacks on his watch — a statistic that was often cited by President Bush as evidence that his administration was winning the war on terror.
Just as those make a case for focusing primarily on foreign policy, the case for putting the primary focus on the economy is:
1) The truth about wars and disasters is that they command attention at first, and later fade as the public turns back to their daily concerns. It’s already happening with the crisis in Japan. And the conflict in the Middle East and North Africa will seem more distant if forces from the United States really do hand over operations to European and regional forces.
2) Even when they are in the news, foreign events are unpredictable and difficult to manage. Mr. Obama found that out when he pledged on his first day in office to close the detention facility at Guantánamo Bay. It remains open today chiefly because the administration has had difficulty finding allies willing to take the detainees into their countries. Basing a campaign on the whims of foreign interactions would be dangerous at best.
3) The economy continues to struggle, but the news has been steadily, if slowly, improving on the economic front, with more than a year of modest job growth each month and economic measures like the markets, consumer spending and income growth have been moving in a positive direction. That improvement has not yet translated into a lot of optimism among the public. In an Associated Press-GfK poll released on Wednesday, Americans said they were growing more pessimistic — not less — about the future. But the same survey suggested that Mr. Obama was not the target of the pessimism and that his approval ratings over all and on the economy were holding steady, at 50 percent and 47 percent respectively. (Other recent polls, however, have shown his approval on the economy lower.)
4) Even if the president wanted to talk about foreign affairs, the political conversation in Washington is being driven by lawmakers on Capitol Hill, who are gearing up for a yearlong battle over the nation’s debt and deficits. Mr. Obama is all but certain to be drawn into that conversation.
5) The president’s first year in office largely set the tone for his administration, whether he liked it or not. The stimulus program, the bank and auto bailouts, the fights overfinancial regulation legislation and health care provided Mr. Obama with a record that he now has to sell to the public.
6) The lack of foreign policy credentials for most of the likely 2012 Republican candidates offers an opportunity for Mr. Obama. But it also means that the men and women who are running for the Republican nomination will focus on what they know: domestic issues like immigration, gas prices, job losses, taxes, government spending and the debt. Candidates like Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota, or Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, will all seize on the economy’s weaknesses to call for an end to Mr. Obama’s administration. His challenge will be to construct a narrative that pushes back against their charges.
7) The 2010 midterm campaign offered Mr. Obama a clear example of what can happen when Democrats don’t successfully control that narrative. Republicans captured the House and made big gains in the Senate almost exclusively by tapping into anger about the economy, health care and jobs.
Much of what candidates do during a campaign depend heavily on whomever one's challenger(s) is, but also what issues grip the public's attention and concern. Both foreign policy and the economy will be major parts of presidential debates and the campaign cycle. How Obama decides to juggle them and other issues could impact how the election might unfold.
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