The 2012 presidential election is less than 5 months away and there is still a lot of time for ads, debates, campaign stops, and polls. While the race will likely come down to about a dozen states, each state truly does play some role and even safe states for either party are needed to guarantee victory in November.
The New York Times and Micah Cohen are going to take a state by state look at each state throughout the next few months. Next up is New Hampshire.
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Every four years, the glare of the nation’s political spotlight fixes on New Hampshire. But the moment is usually brief. For most of the period since World War II, the state’s outsize influence on presidential politics has been limited to the nominating process. During the general election campaign, New Hampshire has been shunted offstage, turned into a background player.
The reason: There was no suspense about the results. The Republican candidate carried the state in every election but one from 1948 until 1988, winning by 29 percentage points in 1980, 38 points in 1984 and 26 points in 1988.
Since then, however, population shifts have helped make New Hampshire one of the nation’s presidential battlegrounds. In 2012, the state — despite carrying just four electoral votes — is among the most important and is a major focus of both campaigns. Mitt Romney began a recent bus tour of America’s small towns in Stratham, N.H., and President Obama is scheduled to visit Strafford County on Monday.
For Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney — both of whom are mapping out routes to the 270 electoral votes needed to take the presidency — New Hampshire represents not just four votes, but four of the final votes needed to get to, or stay in, the White House. On some of those maps, New Hampshire is the final push across the finish line.
FiveThirtyEight spoke with Andrew Smith, who knows New Hampshire as well as almost anyone. Mr. Smith is the director of the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center and an associate professor of political science there.
New Hampshire has gradually become more competitive because of a political imbalance in the voters who are being added to the rolls and those who are leaving them. New voters — both people who have moved into the state and younger people who have reached voting age — are more Democratic than the residents who are leaving the state or dying.
“A third of the potential electorate in 2008 couldn’t vote in the state in 2000, either because they didn’t live in the state or because they weren’t old enough,” Mr. Smith said. The changes have dramatically changed New Hampshire’s political landscape from among the most Republican states in the Northeast to one where Mr. Obama was able to win every county in 2008.
But Mr. Obama is unlikely to do as well this year. The recession has slowed the number of newcomers, arresting the state’s shift to the left. Moreover, Mr. Romney’s brand of Republicanism — fiscally minded but less strident than many Republicans on social issues — resonates with many New Hampshire voters. The state, like many others, swung wholly to the right in 2010, and both parties now have areas of support they can count on. The winner in New Hampshire, Mr. Smith said, is likely to be determined by which campaign can get more of their people to the polls.
The Democratic strongholds in New Hampshire start with the Connecticut River Valley in the southwest, which runs from the Massachusetts border north through Keene to Hanover and Lebanon. It is an area filled with college students and is a popular destination for affluent retirees from New York who have bought second homes in the area’s mountains.
New Hampshire’s coast is also a left-leaning region, with a heavy concentration of Democrats in Portsmouth and Durham, where the University of New Hampshire is located, and in old mill towns like Somersworth, Rollinsford and Rochester.
The heart of the Republicans’ territory lies between the coast and Cheshire and Sullivan counties in the west. Though the cities of Nashua and Manchester vote Democratic, the small towns around them are solidly Republican (Hudson, Windham, Salem, Derry and Pelham, for example).
Somewhat paradoxically, the towns close to New Hampshire’s border with loyally liberal Massachusetts are also Republican territory. “Democrats call that area ‘the Bermuda Triangle,’ where Democratic candidates go to die,” Mr. Smith said.
The Bellwether: Merrimack County
Merrimack County, which is home to New Hampshire’s capital, Concord, has been a close barometer of the Democrats’ statewide strength since 2000, with Democratic support in the county consistently about 2 percentage points stronger than their statewide share of the vote. Concord itself, with its government workers, is solidly Democratic, but the towns surrounding it are Republican, almost balancing out the county.
The Bottom Line
According to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast, Mr. Obama is a 71 percent favorite to win New Hampshire, just slightly better than his current odds of winning the election over all, 63 percent.
But New Hamphire has an unusually large number of swing voters and may be especially responsive to changes in the national mood. The state is eighth on FiveThirtyEight’s list of top Tipping Point states, ahead of electoral-vote-rich states like Michigan and North Carolina. It is also third on our Return on Investment Index, which measures “the relative likelihood that an individual voter would determine the Electoral College winner.”
There are a fair number of plausible cases under which its four electoral votes might prove to be decisive, securing a second term for Mr. Obama or a first for Mr. Romney.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Presidential Geography: Montana
The 2012 presidential election is less than 5 months away and there is still a lot of time for ads, debates, campaign stops, and polls. While the race will likely come down to about a dozen states, each state truly does play some role and even safe states for either party are needed to guarantee victory in November.
The New York Times and Micah Cohen are going to take a state by state look at each state throughout the next few months. Next up is Montana.
MONTANA:
Montana was an unexpected battleground in 2008. After giving George W. Bush victories of 21 percentage points in 2004 and 25 percentage points in 2000, Senator John McCain just barely won the state’s three electoral votes in 2008, edging out President Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.
In 2012, however, the battle is likely to miss Montana. Both campaigns have largely left the state alone, and most observers expect Mitt Romney to win Montana fairly easily. Even the Obama campaign counted the state as Mr. Romney’s in an electoral map featured in a campaign video.
Still, 20-plus percentage point Republican victories in Montana will probably be harder to come by in the future. The state is undergoing fundamental shifts, in its population, its economy and its politics. FiveThirtyEight spoke with David Parker, an associate professor of political science at Montana State University (he also writes for Big Sky Political Analysis).
Most of the plains counties in eastern Montana, traditionally the most conservative part of the state, have been losing population for years. During the last several decades, mining and agriculture — top industries in the region — both soured for long stretches of time, causing a slow exodus. In Garfield County, one in five people left during the 1990s.
At the same time, western Montana has seen a large influx of migrants from the West Coast, from more liberal cities like Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Many outdoor-loving entrepreneurs, untethered from their customers by the spread of high-speed Internet, have relocated to western Montana’s mountainous landscape, helping to make the region’s economy more diverse than the eastern part of the state, and less dependent on resource extraction (although, to the east’s growing resentment, the entire state benefits from the current energy boom).
Most of Montana’s Democratic strongholds are in the west. In 2008, Mr. Obama did well in Butte and Anaconda, old mining towns where the ore is mostly gone but the union ethos remains; Helena, the state capital; and university towns like Missoula and Bozeman. Mr. Obama also won counties in the north and west with Native American reservations.
The flight from eastern Montana and influx into western Montana have combined to make the state more friendly to Democratic politicians, particularly in state-level races. Montana has a Democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer, and two Democratic senators, Max Baucus and Jon Tester. (Mr. Tester is up for re-election in 2012 and being challenged by a Republican who is Montana’s lone representative, Denny Rehberg. The Senate race, which is very close, is receiving the bulk of the political attention in the state.)
But Montana’s slow shift toward the political center is not guaranteed to continue. For one thing, even as conservative areas have lost population, party loyalty has waned, making voting behavior harder to predict.
Furthermore, hydraulic fracturing — commonly known as fracking — has recently unleashed an oil boom on the Bakken shale field, which extends over northeastern Montana. Bakken oil is a major reason Montana’s unemployment rate has consistently been lower than the national average, asthousands of jobs have been created. The flood of migrants moving to Montana to fill those jobs may alter the state’s political balance, perhaps arresting or even reversing the loss of population on Montana’s eastern plains. But it is still unclear what impact the newcomers might have.
The Bellwether: Yellowstone County
Home to Billings, the state’s largest city at just over 100,000 people, Yellowstone County in 2008 voted for Mr. McCain by a margin of 6 percentage points. That’s almost exactly in line with the state’s Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index score, R+7. And in the past three presidential elections, the two party vote shares in Yellowstone County have consistently been just 2 or 3 percentage points more Republican than the state.
The Bottom Line
The FiveThirtyEight model gives Mr. Obama just a 17 percent chance of winning Montana. And even if the nation’s tepid economic recovery suddenly gained steam, it’s not clear Mr. Obama’s prospects in Montana would improve as much as they might in other states. Montana’s economy is already relatively healthy.
If the first state in our Presidential Geography series, New Mexico, holds the potential to be a high water mark in a Republican wave election, Montana likely represents the reverse: one of the most Republican states that could be won by a Democratic presidential candidate in a Democratic wave election.
But 2012 will probably not be that election.
The New York Times and Micah Cohen are going to take a state by state look at each state throughout the next few months. Next up is Montana.
MONTANA:
Montana was an unexpected battleground in 2008. After giving George W. Bush victories of 21 percentage points in 2004 and 25 percentage points in 2000, Senator John McCain just barely won the state’s three electoral votes in 2008, edging out President Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.
In 2012, however, the battle is likely to miss Montana. Both campaigns have largely left the state alone, and most observers expect Mitt Romney to win Montana fairly easily. Even the Obama campaign counted the state as Mr. Romney’s in an electoral map featured in a campaign video.
Still, 20-plus percentage point Republican victories in Montana will probably be harder to come by in the future. The state is undergoing fundamental shifts, in its population, its economy and its politics. FiveThirtyEight spoke with David Parker, an associate professor of political science at Montana State University (he also writes for Big Sky Political Analysis).
Most of the plains counties in eastern Montana, traditionally the most conservative part of the state, have been losing population for years. During the last several decades, mining and agriculture — top industries in the region — both soured for long stretches of time, causing a slow exodus. In Garfield County, one in five people left during the 1990s.
At the same time, western Montana has seen a large influx of migrants from the West Coast, from more liberal cities like Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Many outdoor-loving entrepreneurs, untethered from their customers by the spread of high-speed Internet, have relocated to western Montana’s mountainous landscape, helping to make the region’s economy more diverse than the eastern part of the state, and less dependent on resource extraction (although, to the east’s growing resentment, the entire state benefits from the current energy boom).
Most of Montana’s Democratic strongholds are in the west. In 2008, Mr. Obama did well in Butte and Anaconda, old mining towns where the ore is mostly gone but the union ethos remains; Helena, the state capital; and university towns like Missoula and Bozeman. Mr. Obama also won counties in the north and west with Native American reservations.
The flight from eastern Montana and influx into western Montana have combined to make the state more friendly to Democratic politicians, particularly in state-level races. Montana has a Democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer, and two Democratic senators, Max Baucus and Jon Tester. (Mr. Tester is up for re-election in 2012 and being challenged by a Republican who is Montana’s lone representative, Denny Rehberg. The Senate race, which is very close, is receiving the bulk of the political attention in the state.)
But Montana’s slow shift toward the political center is not guaranteed to continue. For one thing, even as conservative areas have lost population, party loyalty has waned, making voting behavior harder to predict.
Furthermore, hydraulic fracturing — commonly known as fracking — has recently unleashed an oil boom on the Bakken shale field, which extends over northeastern Montana. Bakken oil is a major reason Montana’s unemployment rate has consistently been lower than the national average, asthousands of jobs have been created. The flood of migrants moving to Montana to fill those jobs may alter the state’s political balance, perhaps arresting or even reversing the loss of population on Montana’s eastern plains. But it is still unclear what impact the newcomers might have.
The Bellwether: Yellowstone County
Home to Billings, the state’s largest city at just over 100,000 people, Yellowstone County in 2008 voted for Mr. McCain by a margin of 6 percentage points. That’s almost exactly in line with the state’s Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index score, R+7. And in the past three presidential elections, the two party vote shares in Yellowstone County have consistently been just 2 or 3 percentage points more Republican than the state.
The Bottom Line
The FiveThirtyEight model gives Mr. Obama just a 17 percent chance of winning Montana. And even if the nation’s tepid economic recovery suddenly gained steam, it’s not clear Mr. Obama’s prospects in Montana would improve as much as they might in other states. Montana’s economy is already relatively healthy.
If the first state in our Presidential Geography series, New Mexico, holds the potential to be a high water mark in a Republican wave election, Montana likely represents the reverse: one of the most Republican states that could be won by a Democratic presidential candidate in a Democratic wave election.
But 2012 will probably not be that election.
Sunday, June 17, 2012
Presidential Geography: New Mexico
The 2012 presidential election is less than 5 months away and there is still a lot of time for ads, debates, campaign stops, and polls. While the race will likely come down to about a dozen states, each state truly does play some role and even safe states for either party are needed to guarantee victory in November.
The New York Times and Micah Cohen are going to take a state by state look at each state throughout the next few months. To start, New Mexico is on deck.
NEW MEXICO:
The 2000 presidential election is most remembered for the Florida recount and George W. Bush’s hair-thin margin over Al Gore in the state. But it was actually New Mexico that had the closest contest that year: a 366-vote Gore victory. Four years later, the race in New Mexico was nearly as tight. Mr. Bush managed a 5,988-vote cushion over Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts.
Then came the 2008 race, and the vote in New Mexico wasn’t close to close. President Obama carried the state by 125,590 votes, a 15-percentage point shellacking.
So what happened?
Answer 1: Demographic changes, a growing Hispanic population chief among them, finally hit a tipping point, and Democratic presidential candidates will be able to bank on New Mexico’s five electoral votes in 2012 and for the foreseeable future.
Answer 2: The 2008 election was an anomaly. A Democratic wave nationally — caused by a deeply unpopular Republican in the White House and a financial crisis — as well as a strong get-out-the-vote effort by the Obama campaign combined to inflate the margin in New Mexico. The state will revert to its pre-2008 competitiveness in 2012.
To find the correct answer, FiveThirtyEight spoke with two political science professors from the University of New Mexico: Gabriel R. Sanchez, who is also the director of research for Latino Decisions; and Christine Sierra, who heads up the university’s Southwest Hispanic Research Institute.
New Mexico has grown more Democratic as its Hispanic population has increased. Hispanics make up 46 percent of the state’s population. Mr. Bush was competitive there partly because he did well among Hispanic voters, winning 44 percent in 2004. In 2008, by contrast, Senator John McCain of Arizona won just 30 percent of the Hispanic vote.
Spanish-speaking enclaves in northern New Mexico trace their heritage back to the Spanish explorers of the 1500s, and many families have been American citizens for generations. As a result, Hispanic turnout tends to be higher in the north than in southwest New Mexico, where recent immigrants from Mexico and Central and South America are more common.
Beyond the growing Latino population, Mr. Obama’s margin in New Mexico was helped by the state’s large American Indian presence, which is 10 percentof New Mexico’s population and which was determinedly courted by the Obama campaign in 2008.
The Third Congressional District is the most Democratic in the state. It includes liberal-leaning Sante Fe and has a higher share of Indians, almost 20 percent, than the state’s other two districts.
New Mexico might be even more Democratic if not for idiosyncratic Albuquerque, the state’s only real metropolis. Albuquerque, in the central part of the state, is less Democratic than big cities in other states. The First Congressional District, which is anchored by Albuquerque, elected a Republican to Congress from its creation in 1969 until 2008.
One reason Albuquerque might be more politically competitive than other big cities, Ms. Sierra said, is that nearly one-fourth of its workers are employed by the government, and many of those jobs are defense-related. Sandia National Laboratories and Kirtland Air Force Base are both in Albuquerque.
The southeast is the one overwhelmingly Republican region of New Mexico. Known as Little Texas, the area — in its culture and landscape — resembles its giant neighbor: it is predominately white, and oil and cattle ranching are two of its principal industries.
The Bellwether: Sandoval County
Sandoval County has recently been an almost-perfect barometer of New Mexico’s political mood. In the past three presidential elections, the vote share for both the Democrat and the Republican in Sandoval County hasn’t been more than one percentage point off of the levels statewide.
Sandoval County is home to Rio Rancho, a suburb of Albuquerque that has ballooned into the third largest city in the state. Rio Rancho grew 69 percentfrom 2000 to 2010. The residents of its subdivisions, like the one above, are a little more conservative than the people of Albuquerque and include employees for Intel, Victoria’s Secret and Sprint PCS, all of which have plants in Rio Rancho.
The Bottom Line
Mr. Obama is a 92 percent favorite in New Mexico, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. The model projects the president will receive 55 percent to Mr. Romney’s 44 percent, an 11-point margin. That would be a closer race — if not exactly close — compared to 2008.
An 11-point Democratic margin is also probably closer to New Mexico’s default partisan lean than the 15-point victory in 2008. Going back to our two answers at the top of this post, both Mr. Sanchez and Ms. Sierra said that both were incorrect. “The truth likely lies somewhere between the two, but it is too early to tell,” Mr. Sanchez said.
New Mexico might be a swing state in future elections, depending on the national political environment and the candidates. In particular, a Republican candidate would have to have unique appeal to Hispanics to put the state in play (a task that may have been made harder for Mr. Romney by the Obama administration’s decision to limit deportations in certain cases).
But New Mexico is probably no longer a tipping-point state. And if Mr. Obama finds himself in danger of losing in the Land of Enchantment, it’s likely that a large share of the rest of the nation has already become disenchanted with him.
The New York Times and Micah Cohen are going to take a state by state look at each state throughout the next few months. To start, New Mexico is on deck.
NEW MEXICO:
The 2000 presidential election is most remembered for the Florida recount and George W. Bush’s hair-thin margin over Al Gore in the state. But it was actually New Mexico that had the closest contest that year: a 366-vote Gore victory. Four years later, the race in New Mexico was nearly as tight. Mr. Bush managed a 5,988-vote cushion over Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts.
Then came the 2008 race, and the vote in New Mexico wasn’t close to close. President Obama carried the state by 125,590 votes, a 15-percentage point shellacking.
So what happened?
Answer 1: Demographic changes, a growing Hispanic population chief among them, finally hit a tipping point, and Democratic presidential candidates will be able to bank on New Mexico’s five electoral votes in 2012 and for the foreseeable future.
Answer 2: The 2008 election was an anomaly. A Democratic wave nationally — caused by a deeply unpopular Republican in the White House and a financial crisis — as well as a strong get-out-the-vote effort by the Obama campaign combined to inflate the margin in New Mexico. The state will revert to its pre-2008 competitiveness in 2012.
To find the correct answer, FiveThirtyEight spoke with two political science professors from the University of New Mexico: Gabriel R. Sanchez, who is also the director of research for Latino Decisions; and Christine Sierra, who heads up the university’s Southwest Hispanic Research Institute.
New Mexico has grown more Democratic as its Hispanic population has increased. Hispanics make up 46 percent of the state’s population. Mr. Bush was competitive there partly because he did well among Hispanic voters, winning 44 percent in 2004. In 2008, by contrast, Senator John McCain of Arizona won just 30 percent of the Hispanic vote.
Spanish-speaking enclaves in northern New Mexico trace their heritage back to the Spanish explorers of the 1500s, and many families have been American citizens for generations. As a result, Hispanic turnout tends to be higher in the north than in southwest New Mexico, where recent immigrants from Mexico and Central and South America are more common.
Beyond the growing Latino population, Mr. Obama’s margin in New Mexico was helped by the state’s large American Indian presence, which is 10 percentof New Mexico’s population and which was determinedly courted by the Obama campaign in 2008.
The Third Congressional District is the most Democratic in the state. It includes liberal-leaning Sante Fe and has a higher share of Indians, almost 20 percent, than the state’s other two districts.
New Mexico might be even more Democratic if not for idiosyncratic Albuquerque, the state’s only real metropolis. Albuquerque, in the central part of the state, is less Democratic than big cities in other states. The First Congressional District, which is anchored by Albuquerque, elected a Republican to Congress from its creation in 1969 until 2008.
One reason Albuquerque might be more politically competitive than other big cities, Ms. Sierra said, is that nearly one-fourth of its workers are employed by the government, and many of those jobs are defense-related. Sandia National Laboratories and Kirtland Air Force Base are both in Albuquerque.
The southeast is the one overwhelmingly Republican region of New Mexico. Known as Little Texas, the area — in its culture and landscape — resembles its giant neighbor: it is predominately white, and oil and cattle ranching are two of its principal industries.
The Bellwether: Sandoval County
Sandoval County has recently been an almost-perfect barometer of New Mexico’s political mood. In the past three presidential elections, the vote share for both the Democrat and the Republican in Sandoval County hasn’t been more than one percentage point off of the levels statewide.
Sandoval County is home to Rio Rancho, a suburb of Albuquerque that has ballooned into the third largest city in the state. Rio Rancho grew 69 percentfrom 2000 to 2010. The residents of its subdivisions, like the one above, are a little more conservative than the people of Albuquerque and include employees for Intel, Victoria’s Secret and Sprint PCS, all of which have plants in Rio Rancho.
The Bottom Line
Mr. Obama is a 92 percent favorite in New Mexico, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. The model projects the president will receive 55 percent to Mr. Romney’s 44 percent, an 11-point margin. That would be a closer race — if not exactly close — compared to 2008.
An 11-point Democratic margin is also probably closer to New Mexico’s default partisan lean than the 15-point victory in 2008. Going back to our two answers at the top of this post, both Mr. Sanchez and Ms. Sierra said that both were incorrect. “The truth likely lies somewhere between the two, but it is too early to tell,” Mr. Sanchez said.
New Mexico might be a swing state in future elections, depending on the national political environment and the candidates. In particular, a Republican candidate would have to have unique appeal to Hispanics to put the state in play (a task that may have been made harder for Mr. Romney by the Obama administration’s decision to limit deportations in certain cases).
But New Mexico is probably no longer a tipping-point state. And if Mr. Obama finds himself in danger of losing in the Land of Enchantment, it’s likely that a large share of the rest of the nation has already become disenchanted with him.
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Primary day in the Garden State
As June 5th approached in New Jersey, there were limited headlines. There were two or three contested primary contests and multiple uncontested races on top of ones that were no contests as only person was running. Nominating President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for their party's nomination for president were about as near formalities as Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and state Senator Joseph Kyrillos (R-13) as their party's nominees for U.S. Senate. Congressman Bill Pascrell (D-NJ8) will survive to likely serve another two years in Congress while Congressman Steve Rothman (D-NJ9)'s political life looks finished as the two sparred in the 9th Congressional District's Democratic primary. Another spotlight race turned into a landslide as Newark Council President Donald Payne Jr will finish out his late father's (Congressman Donald Payne (D-NJ10)) term and then proceed to serve his own term in January barring a GOP miracle in the 10th Congressional District.
Beyond those races, there was still plenty of action to follow from top to bottom around the state.
One such race had Anna Little, former Highlands Mayor, looking to finish what she started two years ago in the 6th Congressional District. This time around she was facing a less known and non-establishment candidate in Ernesto Cullari. A different opponent for Little, but the same result as she will officially now challenge Congressman Frank Pallone (D-NJ6) once again. She fell short giving Pallone one of his toughest reelecton campaigns largely due to Little and her "Anna's Army", a Tea Party-based grassroots group. Little had a couple obstacles during the primary cycle including deciding to run and overcome losing the GOP nomination in her home county, Monmouth. Like two years ago, she will face an uphill battle in district that favors Pallone and Democrats.
Not far away from Little's race and the 6th Congressional District was another contested race in the 7th Congressional District. Congressman Leonard Lance (R-NJ7) found himself facing conservative opposition on his path to the party's nomination. He was squared off against David Larsen. Lance's more moderate opinions have gotten his negative attention from conservative operatives in the state and why they put Larsen up against him again. Helping Lance's efforts in the waning days and weeks of the race was the fact that Governor Chris Christie and Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI1) came out showing their support for him. The two men are much more popular among party's base than Lance. In the most competitive GOP primary of the day, Lance carried 60% of the vote to Larsen's 40%. Lance's journey again this year is not over with the primary victory. He will need to fend off a potentially dangerous Democratic opponent strictly based on the complexion of the district not changing much after redistricting. Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula (D-17) was unopposed and is looking to be the one to beat Lance for the Democratic Party.
Moving up the state, Congressman Scott Garrett (R-NJ5) finally found which Democrat was going to be general election opponent after Congressman Steve Rothman (D-NJ9) left the district and likely matchup in November. Adam Gussen, Teaneck's deputy mayor, emerged from a three person field to be the one to challenge Garrett, who easily beat his two opponents. Gussen bested Jason Castle, an Iraq War veteran, and Diane Sare. Like Little's challenge of Pallone, the same could be said of Gussen's challenge of Garrett. The new 5th Congressional District is a bit more favorable of Democrats, but still provides Garrett with another of an advantage to be favored. Democrats, with having Rothman, were hoping to give Garrett his most serious reelection threat; but that was not to be when Rothman changed districts. Garrett cruised past Michael Cino and Bonnie Somer in the GOP primary in the district. Gussen got 55% of the vote compared to Castle's 35% and Sare's 10% while Garrett got 88% compared to the 7% for Cino and 5% for Somer.
In a less competitive race and district, Congressman Albio Sires (D-NJ13) won the Democratic nomination in the new 8th Congressional District. Sires was being challenged by Michael Shurin. The new 8th is favorable for Sires and the Democratic Party and made up of most of Hudson County and parts of Bergen and Essex Counties. In victory, Sires expressed;
"We have to keep battling. When we get back to Washington, we will go on fighting. We are going to try to bring money back to the District although there are no more earmarks. We can get grants by writing letters in support of projects in the District."
Beyond those races, there was still plenty of action to follow from top to bottom around the state.
One such race had Anna Little, former Highlands Mayor, looking to finish what she started two years ago in the 6th Congressional District. This time around she was facing a less known and non-establishment candidate in Ernesto Cullari. A different opponent for Little, but the same result as she will officially now challenge Congressman Frank Pallone (D-NJ6) once again. She fell short giving Pallone one of his toughest reelecton campaigns largely due to Little and her "Anna's Army", a Tea Party-based grassroots group. Little had a couple obstacles during the primary cycle including deciding to run and overcome losing the GOP nomination in her home county, Monmouth. Like two years ago, she will face an uphill battle in district that favors Pallone and Democrats.
Not far away from Little's race and the 6th Congressional District was another contested race in the 7th Congressional District. Congressman Leonard Lance (R-NJ7) found himself facing conservative opposition on his path to the party's nomination. He was squared off against David Larsen. Lance's more moderate opinions have gotten his negative attention from conservative operatives in the state and why they put Larsen up against him again. Helping Lance's efforts in the waning days and weeks of the race was the fact that Governor Chris Christie and Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI1) came out showing their support for him. The two men are much more popular among party's base than Lance. In the most competitive GOP primary of the day, Lance carried 60% of the vote to Larsen's 40%. Lance's journey again this year is not over with the primary victory. He will need to fend off a potentially dangerous Democratic opponent strictly based on the complexion of the district not changing much after redistricting. Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula (D-17) was unopposed and is looking to be the one to beat Lance for the Democratic Party.
Moving up the state, Congressman Scott Garrett (R-NJ5) finally found which Democrat was going to be general election opponent after Congressman Steve Rothman (D-NJ9) left the district and likely matchup in November. Adam Gussen, Teaneck's deputy mayor, emerged from a three person field to be the one to challenge Garrett, who easily beat his two opponents. Gussen bested Jason Castle, an Iraq War veteran, and Diane Sare. Like Little's challenge of Pallone, the same could be said of Gussen's challenge of Garrett. The new 5th Congressional District is a bit more favorable of Democrats, but still provides Garrett with another of an advantage to be favored. Democrats, with having Rothman, were hoping to give Garrett his most serious reelection threat; but that was not to be when Rothman changed districts. Garrett cruised past Michael Cino and Bonnie Somer in the GOP primary in the district. Gussen got 55% of the vote compared to Castle's 35% and Sare's 10% while Garrett got 88% compared to the 7% for Cino and 5% for Somer.
In a less competitive race and district, Congressman Albio Sires (D-NJ13) won the Democratic nomination in the new 8th Congressional District. Sires was being challenged by Michael Shurin. The new 8th is favorable for Sires and the Democratic Party and made up of most of Hudson County and parts of Bergen and Essex Counties. In victory, Sires expressed;
"We have to keep battling. When we get back to Washington, we will go on fighting. We are going to try to bring money back to the District although there are no more earmarks. We can get grants by writing letters in support of projects in the District."
Sires will face the Republican nominee Maria Pineiro Karczewski of Bayonne, who ran unopposed. There will also be wildcards in the race with Independent candidates Stephen Deluca of Jersey City, Pablo Olivera of Newark, and Herb Shaw of North Bergen.
Recapping the rest of the action on the night's congressional races, Congressman Rob Andrews (D-NJ1) was barely challenged picking up nearly 90% of the vote against Francis Tenaglio. Andrews will face the GOP nominee, Greg Horton; who was not challenged. Sliding over to the 2nd Congressional District Congressman Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ2) had the same success as Andrews as he picked up roughly the same percent of the vote against his challenger, Mike Assad. LoBiondo will now move onto the general election to face the challenge of Cassandra Shober, who won a three-way Democratic primary. Shober got 65% of the vote compared to Viola Hughes with 26% and Gary Stein with 9%. Both Andrew and LoBiondo will be heavy favorites in their races. The same could be said of Congressman Christopher Smith (R-NJ4), who got 85% of the vote in his primary against Terrence McGowan. Smith will be challenged by Brian Froelich, who was unopposed.
Moreover, Congressman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ11) was unopposed in his primary contest and will be challenged this November by John Arvanites, who had no challenger either. Congressman Rush Holt (D-NJ12) was another idle incumbent on Tuesday and will get Eric Beck as his GOP challenger after he too faced no opponent. Both congressmen should be pretty comfortable like Andrews, LoBiondo, and Smith in their races. Holt was in a close race two years ago, but seems to be positioned to have an even more favorable race this year.
Lastly, there is the potentially competitive contest building in the 3rd Congressional District. Congressman Jon Runyan (R-NJ3) and Shelley Adler faced no opposition and their race sets up a potentially third straight flip in the district after Adler's late husband, Congressman John Adler, won the seat for Democrats after over a hundred years in 2008 which was followed by Runyan beating him in the only seat change in New Jersey in 2010. The race will likely, for that reason, be the only one worth watching in terms of the potential for a close race. The other eleven seem to be set up for incumbents to either rump to victory or face minimal opposition.
Besides all of the congressional, senatorial, presidential races; there were some local elections with ramifications for only New Jersey on the line. A couple unfortunate deaths have left voids and set up special elections. One such case was the death of Assemblyman Minority Leader Alex DeCroce (R-26) in early January before the new State Legislature session was about to begin. His death opened the door for his widow, Betty Lou DeCroce to win the Republican Party's support to fill his seat and now is poised to run for reelection this November in a special election after winning the Republican Party's nomination again this past Tuesday. DeCroce was challenged by Anthony PioCosta from Montville. Now, DeCroce will await a showdown with the Democratic nominee, Joseph Raich of Parsippany. The 26th Legislative District spans parts of Essex, Morris, and Passaic Counties and favors the Republican.
A similar circumstance has unfolding in the 16th Legislative District. Assemblyman Peter Biondi had just been reelected last November and not long after he was dead. It opened up much conversation in both parties for his successor. Donna Simon would emerge from the GOP nomination process as the new assemblywoman. She must face a reelection challenge of her own this November. Opposing her will be Marie Corfield, the elementary school teacher who became a YouTube star after a showdown with Governor Christie at a townhall. Corfield narrowly lost to Biondi last November and outlasted her Democratic primary opponent Sue Nemeth. The district will give Simon an edge, but Corfield ran well in it last year and could finish the deal against someone without Biondi's tenure. The district is made up of parts of Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, and Somerset Counties.
Besides those two special election-based primaries, there were county elections on tablet of the day's votes as well. In Morris County, the freeholder board got a shake up with John Cesaro, John Krickus, and David Scapicchio running as the Morris Conservative Team defeating incumbent Freeholder William Chegwidden. Chegwidden's defeat continued a trend in the county of three years in a row with an incumbent freeholder losing reelection. Challengers have used reigning in runaway spending as their core argument. Chegwidden is also the mayor of Wharton and became a symbol of what conservative are rallying against in their party. For Krickus, for instance;
"We ran as conservative reformers and the voters responded. We want less taxes and less spending. Our No. 1, 2 and 3 priorities are the taxpayers."
While Cesaro would add,
"Our message of more leadership in shared services, controlled spending, more transparency in county government resonated; but what really did it was a combination of the issues plus the courtesy of going to someone’s door."
Those two picked up 17% of the vote apiece while Scapicchio edged out Chegwidden by about 300 votes as each got 13%. Now the conservative trio will be lined up against the Democratic primary winners; Toshiba Foster, Wasim Khan, and Joy Singh. The Democratic group ran unopposed. It has been over 30 years since a Democrat has won a freeholder seat and this race presents a similar challenge for the Democrats running. Over in Essex County, Sheriff Armando Fontoura handily won the Democratic primary in the county with roughly three-fourths of the vote. The district strongly favors him and he should be on his way to an eighth term. Fontoura beat out three challengers and after winning stated,
“I love this job, I want to keep it. Clearly we’re very pleased that the Democratic voters in Essex County think that we’re doing a good job."
Fontoura's closest challenger was John Arnold Jr with 20% of the vote. Leading up to Tuesday's vote, Arnold lamented;
“We’re going against a political machine that has a lot of money. Nobody knew John Arnold ... they’re going to see that change is needed and they’re going to look to me.”
Surveying the state some more, there was a symbolic race in Elizabeth as Elizabeth Mayor Chris Bollwage cruised to victory in his Democratic primary defeating his former top deputy, Oscar Ocasio. Bollwage picked up roughly 75% of the vote and continues his dominance in Elizabeth as he will serve the state's fourth largest city for a sixth term. As he joyful voiced,
"I’ve never won an election by a three-to-one margin. I attribute it to the great volunteer staff, as well as our message of moving the city in the right direction."
There was no one running on the Republican side and clears the way for his continued success. Bollwage had to deal with facing a former friend and fighting off Ocasio's allegations directed towards Bollwage. Bollwage potentially has bigger aspirations one day and this win will assist him build his name and legacy if he were to run for governor or another state office.
Some might have seen primary day in New Jersey as overall lacking suspense. But, the various levels of elections kept voters all over the state busy. The officially established some incumbents and nominees as the nominees for this November. Pascrell and Payne Jr won the big contests of the day. However, there were some changes in a couple places and preparations being made for some compelling general election races.
Like primary day on June 5th, this November will feature limited drama. But, expect a couple compelling races at the national level with the both the presidential and senatorial races that seem all but written. Furthermore, there are twelve congressional contests that overall seem set up for incumbent victories. 2010 gave the state three or four races that became close down the stretch. Could the same be said in similar places again?
Finally, special elections in LD-16 and LD-26 have state implications as Democrats hope to gain two more seats in the Assembly as Republicans hope to keep them as they continue to move towards potentially gaining the State Legislature back in the next couple election cycles.
For all the slack New Jersey gets with elections sometimes, not all is always what is seems. That is why every vote counts even in the Garden State with some races.
Monday, June 4, 2012
New Jersey a non-factor in presidential politics
In 2008, New Jersey fought to move up their state primary date from June to February when Super Tuesday was occurring. New Jersey was part of at least one-third of the states casting votes that day. By days end, not much had changed on the Democratic side between then-SenatorBarack Obama and then-Senator Hillary Clinton while Senator John McCain (R-AZ) had positioned himself to lock up the Republican nomination about a month later. As New Jersey and the country began to prepare for the 2012 primary cycle, each state began to assess their positioning on the primary calendar. The traditional stalwarts of Iowa and New Hampshire would obviously start the cycle and after some threats from Florida, again; the cycle was moved up about a month to keep the first month of primaries and caucuses locked in from previous cycles. However, there were discussions of subduing another Super Tuesday. The Republican field that was building to face President Obama about a year ago seemed fairly wide open despite featuring an early front runner in former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Some states decided to not move their primary or caucus and others thought it might be better to move their primary or caucus back.
New Jersey was one of those to move their primary back. Since the state was going to be holding primaries for members of Congress, senatorial races, and a few local elections; the state felt it mostly cost effective to hold only one primary date. Also, at the time, there was thinking and potentially hoping that by the time June 5th rolled around; the Republicans would be in the middle of their own version of an Obama-Clinton nomination battle. But, that was not the case. The race was surely competitive and it took into April before Romney began to pull away and about a month later with his victory in the Texas primary before he locked up the required number of delegates to garner the party's nomination. That fact left New Jersey voters in a familiar situation: casting votes that might be meaningful in one sense, but empty in a greater sense. Even if they were to vote for someone other than Obama or Romney, the vote would essentially not really matter. It is a bleak cycle that the state is stuck in and likely there will not be a lot of attention on the Garden State even with Governor Chris Christie campaigning for Romney.
That lackluster feeling was seen around the state from people who can recall back to just four years ago when there was a bit more excitement connecting to casting a ballot. For Chan Leung, a Hunterdon County Democrat; for instance;
"It was more exciting last time for sure. The last time, I was a (Hillary) Clinton delegate and she was the first woman candidate. Obama was the first African-American candidate. We were breaking new ground."
New Jersey was one of those to move their primary back. Since the state was going to be holding primaries for members of Congress, senatorial races, and a few local elections; the state felt it mostly cost effective to hold only one primary date. Also, at the time, there was thinking and potentially hoping that by the time June 5th rolled around; the Republicans would be in the middle of their own version of an Obama-Clinton nomination battle. But, that was not the case. The race was surely competitive and it took into April before Romney began to pull away and about a month later with his victory in the Texas primary before he locked up the required number of delegates to garner the party's nomination. That fact left New Jersey voters in a familiar situation: casting votes that might be meaningful in one sense, but empty in a greater sense. Even if they were to vote for someone other than Obama or Romney, the vote would essentially not really matter. It is a bleak cycle that the state is stuck in and likely there will not be a lot of attention on the Garden State even with Governor Chris Christie campaigning for Romney.
That lackluster feeling was seen around the state from people who can recall back to just four years ago when there was a bit more excitement connecting to casting a ballot. For Chan Leung, a Hunterdon County Democrat; for instance;
"It was more exciting last time for sure. The last time, I was a (Hillary) Clinton delegate and she was the first woman candidate. Obama was the first African-American candidate. We were breaking new ground."
The man behind moving the state's primary up, then-Governor and state Senator Richard Codey (D-27), would also express;
"New Jersey voted on 'Super Tuesday' along with 21 other states, choosing Clinton over Obama. It didn’t change the course of history, but at least the state mattered. You had Clinton and Obama calling people in New Jersey to line up support until the last day. We were in the game. Now we’re about as relevant as Lindsay Lohan at an AA meeting."
While Tom Wilson, former chairman of the state Republican Party, voiced;
"We still get plenty of attention, because there’s a lot of money in the state. Once again we still didn’t really matter. It’s hard to justify the extra $10 million cost of speeding up the calendar to February."
To elaborate Wilson's point a bit, four years ago the state was the eighth largest contributor to presidential campaigns. At the moment, both Obama and Romney have raised at least $3 million in the state. Adding to the conversation was John Currie, the chairman of the Passaic County Democratic Organization. As Currie would exclaim,
"The 2008 presidential primary was historic for state Democrats and deserved a special date. But this year it’s congressional races such as the one between Democratic Reps. Bill Pascrell and Steve Rothman that’s getting local voters pumped up, not the presidential race."
Currie, like Wilson, prefers the primary date in June. Even though voters might feel a bit ignored when it comes to the Republican nomination process and the presidential election, there will still be 153 Democratic delegates down in Charlotte, North Carolina and 50 Republican delegates down in Tampa, FL later this year at the respective party's nomination conventions. While not being a deciding factor in whom got the party nomination, they still are part of the symbolic process of confirming a state's delegates for their party's chosen candidate. Even with that role, Wilson downplays the significance of that vote and such proceedings for him and others. As he expressed,
"It’s a made-for-TV production (talking about the "drama" leading to the nominations at conventions). I would kill to have been a delegate in 1930-whatever, when we were really hashing it out."
What Wilson is eluding to is the fact that presidential races and conventions were much more unpredictable up to the late 1960s and early 1970s when today's primary and caucus cycles were beginning to become the norm. Conventions in previous years when there were no primaries and delegates at conventions had to decide the nominee; wildcards and dark horses like Franklin Pierce, Abraham Lincoln, and James Garfield emerged with their party's nomination.
As the calendar and slate begins to clear from primary contests to the general election, New Jersey is left scrabbling for a place on the main stage with Iowa or New Hampshire during the primaries or Ohio, Florida, or Pennsylvania during the general cycle.
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