The Republican National Convention is inching closer and presumptive GOP presidential Mitt Romney will be naming his pick very soon. With both of those occasions around the corner, there have been multiple names mentioned from former GOP presidential nominees to governors to members of Congress. There have been pros and cons weighed on each and what they would bring. Whether it is they are from a swing state, they would boost minority voters support, or they would provide balance to what Romney presents. There are two that likely stand out as late minute lead contenders. Those are U.S. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) and Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI1). Below will cases for each man and what they would bring to a ticket with Romney.
Rob Portman:
* The anti-Palin: It’s virtually impossible to overestimate how much John McCain’s pick of Sarah Palinas his vice president in 2008 looms over Romney’s selection process. Everyone but McCain now concedes that Palin, who had spent two years as the governor of Alaska before she was plucked from obscurity, was ill-prepared for the job and, ultimately, undermined McCain’s “experience matters” argument against then Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. The Romney team has let almost nothing about the candidate’s criteria for a ticketmate slip but one thing they have made clear is that competence and a readiness to do the job are by far the most important things he wants in a running mate. Portman oozes competence. He’s spent time in both the executive and legislative branches and everywhere he’s served he’s won kudos for his abilities. It’s hard to imagine that even his staunchest Democratic opponents would be able to argue that Portman wouldn’t be up to the task of being vice president or even president. Seen through the anti-Palin lens, the fact that Portman isn’t terribly sexy — politically speaking — also probably works in his favor. No one would argue that Romney picked Portman to spice things up. If Palin was a Hail Mary pass by McCain, Portman is a three-yard run up the middle. A Portman pick could be sold as an example of Romney’s seriousness and focus not just on winning the presidency but also governing the country.
* Double threat: Most of the candidates still being talked about as Romney’s vice presidential pick have a similar resume to the former Massachusetts governor. That is, they are/were governors with very limited foreign policy experience. (And, no, we don’t count directing your state’s National Guard.) That’s not the case with Portman who boasts real credentials domestically (head of the Office of Management and Budget, House Member, Senator) and internationally as the U.S. Trade Representative during the Bush Administration. While the trade representative isn’t on the same level as, say the Secretary of State, Portman allies note that no one else on the short list can say they have sat at the table with other heads of state and negotiated real trade initiatives. For a candidate like Romney, whose foreign trip exposed just how shaky he can be on international matters, having someone like Portman as a steadying influence could be quite beneficial. (Worth noting: Obama picking Joe Biden was driven, at least in part, by this same line of thinking — that Biden knew global politics and policy and could be a major help to the president on those matters.)
* Ohio, Ohio, Ohio: Without a victory in Ohio on November 6, the electoral math gets very iffy for Romney. And, while the recent history of VP nominees helping to deliver a state or a region is decidedly dicey, there is an argument to be made that Portman actually can make a difference in the Buckeye State. Portman spent 12 years representing the Cincinnati-area in the House before running statewide in 2010. His Senate campaign, which we covered closely on the Fix, was brilliantly run and while he would have almost certainly won even if it wasn’t — the year favored Republicans and Portman’s Democratic opponent was, um, not good — his 18-point margin was eye-opening in such a closely divided state. He proved his mettle (again) during the Ohio presidential primary earlier this year as Romney battled to beat back a surprisingly serious challenge from former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum. Portman was everywhere on the stump during the run-up to that vote, which Romney won by one percent. And, Portman’s statewide organization drew praise for delivering the state to Romney — for good reason. Romney took his highest share of the vote in Hamilton County in Southwest Ohio — which Portman represented in the House — and netted more than 15,000 votes there, which was bigger than his overall margin statewide. With 2012 shaping up more and more like 2004, a few thousand votes here and there in Ohio could make a big difference. (Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry lost Ohio by 118,00 votes in 2004 and, with it, the presidency.) There’s no one else being mentioned as VP who can make a better case than Portman that they can deliver real votes in a swing state.
* Low expectations: The rap on Portman is that he’s a boring guy who no one knows. That fact virtually ensures that if Portman is the pick the narrative that will emerge will be along the lines of “he’s more interesting that you might think!”. It’s just how these things tend to work. Already Portman’s impersonation of a chicken and his near-death experience while kayaking are starting to build out the “this guy is interesting” storyline. While Portman is never going to be the national rock star that a Marco Rubio or Chris Christie might be as VP, the expectations for him to be even vaguely interesting are so incredibly low that he will almost certainly exceed them. Combine his deep resume with a sympathetic more-interesting-than-you-think narrative and Portman may well be the perfect Romney pick.
Paul Ryan:
* The ideas guy: Republicans have struggled to beat back the growing perception that they lack new ideas and, as a result, have premised their whole existence on simply opposing whatever President Obama proposes. Picking Ryan would immediately change that perception — or at least start to erode it. Like his proposals or not, it’s clear that in his budget blueprints, Ryan has proposed a conservative full world-view that makes tough choices — re-making Medicare, for one — that offers voters a genuine policy alternative to what President Obama has done over the past four years. For those in the party — led by Wisconsin governor Scott Walker — who have been urging Romney to lay out a positive policy vision for the country, picking Ryan would be regarded as a master stroke.
* A little bit country, a little bit rock and roll: In the most simple of terms, you can break down Romney’s choices for VP into two categories. There are the safe but less-than-scintillating picks (Portman, Pawlenty) and there are the rock-star-but-riskier picks (Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie). Ryan is the closest thing to a hybrid of those two categories. (You can make an argument here for Jindal but we tend to think Ryan trumps him on the “star” front.) Ryan is someone who is well known and well liked by the party establishment, having served in Congress since 1998 and currently chairing the House Budget Committee. At the same time, Ryan’s budget proposals over the last two years have turned him into a hero among national conservatives (and a villain among liberals, but more on that in the case against Ryan) and he is widely regarded as one of the major figures in the GOP. It’s easy to imagine that if Ryan is the pick he could draw big crowds — maybe not Sarah Palin-level crowds but close — in places like Iowa and New Hampshire as people scramble to see the new face of the Republican party. Picking Ryan would combine the credibility of a serious and tested politician with the excitement that only a genuine political star can generate — and that Romney, not exactly Mr. Personality, may need to win.
* Son of the Midwest: If Romney is going to win the presidency, he is going to need to do it in the upper Midwest/Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and, maybe, Pennsylvania and Michigan. While we tend to look askance at the alleged power of a geographic pick — the last VP pick to “deliver” a region of the country was Lyndon Johnson in 1960— nominating Ryan would allow Romney to double-down on the idea that the Republican ticket better understands the lives of average Americans in the Midwest. (Romney, remember, was born and raised in Michigan.) And, more narrowly, Ryan’s popularity in his congressional district in a swing area of southeastern Wisconsin shouldn’t be overlooked. Remember that George W. Bush lost Wisconsin by just 11,000 votes (out of more than 1.9 million cast) in 2004, meaning that even a slight improvement in, say, Ryan’s district might have put him over the top. With the November election expected to be very close in Wisconsin, you can make the case that a big margin for Romney in Ryan’s district could make the difference.
* An Obama irritant (with a smile): One of the key characteristics for a vice presidential pick is a willingness to go on the attack against the other party’s presidential nominee and, in an ideal world, finding ways to get under his skin. Ryan has proven an ability to do just that over the past 18 months or so as he and Obama have clashed over their competing budgets and what they would (or wouldn’t) do. Who could forget their contentious closed door meeting in which Ryan faced down Obama over how the president was describing the GOP budget proposal? Or Obama attacking Ryan’s plan as “nothing but thinly-veiled Social Darwinism”? It’s clear from their history that Ryan has unique ability to agitate Obama rivaled perhaps only by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (Va.). And, as importantly, Ryan has, to date, been able to keep a smile plastered on his face even when hammering Obama. People like politicians with a sunny demeanor — even when they are on the attack — and Ryan definitely qualifies.
Will it be Portman or Ryan or someone else named to run alongside Romney? While there are no guarantees in vice presidential nominee selections and predicting whom they will be, Portman and Ryan are likely safer bets than most of the field and one could soon be revealed as the other half of the GOP presidential ticket.
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