The 2012 presidential election is almost here and there is still time for ads, debates, campaign stops, and polls. While the race will likely come down to about a dozen states, each state truly does play some role and even safe states for either party are needed to guarantee victory in November.
The New York Times and Micah Cohen have been taking a state by state look at each state throughout the the weeks leading up to Election Day. Next up is Ohio.
Ohio:
If the polls are correct, and President Obama wins a narrow Electoral College victory on Tuesday, the pivotal moment of the 2012 presidential race may have actually occurred in 2009. About two months after taking office, Mr. Obama set the terms of the government’s rescue of General Motors and Chrysler, a move that eventually helped to resurrect the American automobile industry, and, in turn, bolster the economy of the king of swing states: Ohio.
Historically, Ohio has been slightly Republican-leaning relative to the nation. But this year polls suggest that Ohio is slightly Democratic-leaning. That divergence — driven by the auto rescue and the state’s improved economy, local analysts said — may prove determinative. Ohio ranks first on FiveThirtyEight’s tipping point index. The model estimates there is roughly a 50 percent chance that the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes will carry the winning candidate past the 270 mark.
Ohio’s historic rightward lean has been slight — about two percentage points, on average, since 1948 — but consistent. In the 16 presidential elections from 1948 through 2008, Ohio was redder than the nation in 13. It was Democratic-leaning relative to the nation only in 1964, 1972 and 2004 (and in 2004, it leaned Democratic by less than half a percentage point).
But polls show Mr. Obama leading Mitt Romney in Ohio by about three percentage points, one point better than Mr. Obama’s projected national margin, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. The auto rescue’s impact on Ohio’s political preferences, though modest, has been decisive.
“The auto rescue is popular in Ohio,” Mr. Beck said, and because the Buckeye State was only slightly Republican-leaning, a small shift appears to have tipped the state’s partisan balance.
Moreover, the auto rescue and Ohio’s steadily falling unemployment rate appear to have improved Mr. Obama’s standing with the very demographic group that Mr. Romney might have made inroads with: white working-class voters.
“White working-class voters in Ohio have been more supportive of Obama than white working-class voters nationwide,” Mr. Beck said.
Ohio’s economy has traditionally been driven by manufacturing. “Ohio led the industrial revolution 100 years ago,” Mr. Asher said, but in the latter half of the 20th century, globalization and the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs hurt the state’s economy.
Early in the 2012 presidential campaign, during the summer, the Obama campaign saturated Ohio television with advertisements highlighting Mr. Romney’s “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” op-ed article in The Times as well as linking Mr. Romney to Bain Capital and linking Bain Capital to outsourcing, Mr. Asher said. For many Ohio voters, that effort helped undermine Mr. Romney’s contention that his business experience would benefit them if he reached the White House.
As a result, Mr. Beck said, many of the white working-class voters whom Mr. Romney might have appealed to now see him “as the kind of businessman who for many of them was the problem.”
Mr. Asher added, “The Obama campaign defined Mr. Romney, and that appeal gets reinforcement by the auto bailout.”
The Democratic Party’s base of support in Ohio is in the northeast part of the state, a mix of African-American and blue-collar union voters in Cleveland, Canton, Akron and Youngstown. In 2008, Mr. Obama carried Ohio by just over 200,000 votes; he carried Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County by almost 250,000 votes. Northeastern Ohio is also the center of the state’s auto industry, in Cuyahoga and Lake Counties.
From Cleveland, Democratic support fades as you travel west along Lake Erie (though Toledo is reliably left-leaning) and southeast along Ohio’s border with Pennsylvania. Democrats have also made some gains in Ohio’s other major cities. Franklin County, which includes the state capital, Columbus, has trended Democratic, and Mr. Obama made gains in Dayton in 2008, as well.
In 2008, Mr. Obama also managed to flip Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, which had long been one of the more Republican-leaning cities in the state.
Conversely, Democratic support has eroded in southeastern Ohio, which is part of Appalachia. The southeast is culturally conservative and economically depressed. Bill Clinton carried many of the counties there, but they have moved sharply toward the G.O.P. since then. Coal was a major economic driver in southeastern Ohio, and Mr. Romney has targeted voters in the area by attacking Mr. Obama’s energy policies. But the southeast is also lightly populated, contributing only about 10 percent of the statewide vote, Mr. Asher said.
Outside of the northeast and Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati, Ohio is mostly Republican-leaning. Western Ohio, in particular, is ruby red and socially conservative. To carry the state, Mr. Romney will need to run up his margins in the suburban and exurban counties in southwestern Ohio around Cincinnati as well as the small towns along the state’s western border. In 2008, Senator John McCain carried those counties, but he did not get the turnout and margins that George W. Bush did in 2004.
The Bellwether: Stark County
Stark County, anchored by Canton, has been an almost perfect bellwether for the statewide vote in Ohio in the past three presidential elections. Canton tends to vote Democratic, but Stark County also has more rural areas that lean Republican. Stark County was one percentage point more Republican-leaning that Ohio over all in 2008 and 2000 and two points more Republican-leaning in 2004.
The Bottom Line
Mr. Obama is an 85 percent favorite to carry Ohio, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. Not coincidentally, that almost exactly matches his odds of winning re-election, according to the model.
If not for the auto rescue, Ohio’s slight Republican lean would most likely have remained in effect. Unlike in other states, there are no major demographic trends affecting the state’s partisan balance.
“Ohio in terms of demographics is a fairly static state,” Mr. Beck said. “Our Hispanic population is too small to matter except at the margins.”
If Ohio were, relative to the national popular vote, two percentage points Republican-leaning this election — its average over the last 60 years — the state would be a tossup. And if Mr. Romney were able to carry Ohio, he would have many more paths to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House.
But if the polls are right, and the auto rescue and Ohio’s relatively healthy economy help Mr. Obama prevail in the Buckeye State, then it becomes difficult — though not impossible — for Mr. Romney to piece together a winning electoral map.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Presidential Geography: Virginia
The 2012 presidential election is almost here and there is still time for ads, debates, campaign stops, and polls. While the race will likely come down to about a dozen states, each state truly does play some role and even safe states for either party are needed to guarantee victory in November.
The New York Times and Micah Cohen have been taking a state by state look at each state throughout the the weeks leading up to Election Day. Next up is Virginia.
Virginia:
Polling of the presidential race in Virginia has been particularly volatile. Since the beginning of October, polls at various points have shown both a seven-point lead for Mitt Romney and a seven-point lead for President Obama.
The political landscape in Virginia has shifted dramatically in recent years, and the disagreement among the polls is essentially a disagreement about which Virginia will dominate on Election Day: the reliably Republican “Old Virginia,” which is more religious, rural, working-class and white, or the politically competitive “New Virginia,” which is more secular, urban, diverse and white-collar.
In 2008, New Virginia made its debut at the presidential level, with Mr. Obama becoming the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964. He won by six percentage points.
But in the following two years, Old Virginia has roared back. Turnout in nonpresidential elections tends to be substantially more favorable to Republican candidates. Bob McDonnell, a Republican, won the governor’s race in 2009, and the party picked up three House seats in 2010. Republicans now represent 8 of Virginia’s 11 Congressional districts.
Political analysts often group Virginia and North Carolina together as the “New South.” Both states — reliably red for years — turned blue in 2008, pushed toward the political center by highly-educated white-collar voters who have moved there and by fast-growing Hispanic populations.
But while similar demographic trends have been reshaping both states’ politics, the changes have been more apparent in Virginia. Mr. Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina was razor thin. In Virginia, however, Mr. Obama’s margin of victory matched his margin nationwide almost exactly.
Virginia’s political balance has shifted far enough left that it is now very close to a tipping point. In fact, it has the smallest Republican lean, 1.9 percentage points, of any state in FiveThirtyEight’s Presidential Voting Index. North Carolina, by contrast, is almost eight percentage points to the right of the national average.
As Mr. Romney’s polling improved nationally after the first presidential debate, North Carolina appeared to fall off the list of main battleground states. Mr. Romney is currently a 79 percent favorite to carry North Carolina, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. In Virginia, Mr. Obama is still favored.
Democrats there have an advantage that Democrats in North Carolina do not: The explosive growth of suburban Washington.
In 1970, Northern Virginia accounted for 12 percent of the state’s population, according to the Almanac of American Politics, and 61 percent of Virginians lived in small towns and rural communities.
But in the 2010 census, one-third of Virginia residents lived in Northern Virginia. The Richmond area and the Hampton Roads region have grown too, and more than half of the state’s residents live in urban areas.
Northern Virginia now has a much greater influence in statewide elections. As the Washington suburbs have expanded, Northern Virginia has become more diverse and better educated. It is home to thousands of government workers and contractors, including many employed by defense and high-tech companies.
Northern Virginia has also become more affluent. The top 3 richest counties in the nation by median income (and 5 of the top 10) are all in the Virginia portion of suburban Washington. Loudoun County is No. 1, followed by Fairfax and Arlington Counties.
Fairfax County — the most populous in the state, with more than a million residents — has been ground zero for the demographic change, Mr. Skelley said. In 1996, Bob Dole edged out Bill Clinton in Fairfax County, and in 2000 George W. Bush beat Al Gore there. By 2008, however, Mr. Obama carried Fairfax County with slightly more than 60 percent of the vote.
Prince William County, southwest of Fairfax, has grown to more than 400,000 residents, and one-fifth of them are African-American and one-fifth Hispanic.
The Richmond area is more politically competitive, Mr. Palazzolo said. The city of Richmond is heavily African-American and Democratic-leaning, but suburban Chesterfield County to the south is Republican territory. Henrico County — which wraps around Richmond — is a tossup. There are state government employees who lean left, and more socially conservative voters who lean right. The eastern end of Henrico County is blue-collar, while the western end looks more like Northern Virginia, affluent and highly-educated.
The Hampton Roads region, along the coast in southest Virginia, is also competitive. There are significant African-American communities in Norfolk and Hampton. But Hampton Roads is also home to a number of military installations, including Marine, Army and Air Force installations as well as the largest naval base in the world, Norfolk Naval Station. Virginia Beach, home to many active and retired military personnel, skews Republican.
Western Virginia is sparsely populated, more rural and economically depressed. It is also ruby red. The gains Democrats have made in Virginia, with a few exceptions, have been in the east.
“If anything,” Mr. Skelley said, “the western, rural part of the state has become more Republican.”
The Bellwether: Montgomery County
Montgomery County has been an almost perfect barometer of Virginia’s statewide political orientation. Virginia Tech, in Blacksburg, is Montgomery County’s stand-in for left-leaning Northern Virginia, while the area around the university is more Old Virginia, Mr. Skelley said.
In the past three presidential elections, Montgomery County has never been more than one percentage point off of the statewide vote shares of the two parties.
The Bottom Line
Mr. Obama is a 71 percent favorite in Virginia, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. The model projects Virginia to be one of the closest states, with Mr. Obama prevailing by 1.5 percentage points. If Mr. Romney over-performs his polling even slightly on Election Day, Virginia’s 13 electoral votes will end up in the Republican column.
Mr. Obama carried Virginia in 2008 by far exceeding John Kerry’s 2004 vote totals in Hampton Roads, the Richmond area and especially in the Washington suburbs.
Virginia “has moved further left since 2008,” Mr. Palazzolo said, “but Romney is more acceptable to moderate Republicans. The McCain and Palin ticket didn’t sell very well with moderate Republican-leaners in Northern Virginia.”
Suburban communities, particularly in Northern Virginia, are likely to decide who carries the state again this year. Prince William, Loudoun, and Henrico Counties may prove decisive, Mr. Skelley said. All are densely populated, and all were won by Mr. Bush in 2004 and by Mr. Obama 2008.
“The candidates who can win the suburbs have always won,” Mr. Skelley said. “In recent years, the suburbs have become more liberal, which has made it easier for Democrats.”
The New York Times and Micah Cohen have been taking a state by state look at each state throughout the the weeks leading up to Election Day. Next up is Virginia.
Virginia:
Polling of the presidential race in Virginia has been particularly volatile. Since the beginning of October, polls at various points have shown both a seven-point lead for Mitt Romney and a seven-point lead for President Obama.
The political landscape in Virginia has shifted dramatically in recent years, and the disagreement among the polls is essentially a disagreement about which Virginia will dominate on Election Day: the reliably Republican “Old Virginia,” which is more religious, rural, working-class and white, or the politically competitive “New Virginia,” which is more secular, urban, diverse and white-collar.
In 2008, New Virginia made its debut at the presidential level, with Mr. Obama becoming the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964. He won by six percentage points.
But in the following two years, Old Virginia has roared back. Turnout in nonpresidential elections tends to be substantially more favorable to Republican candidates. Bob McDonnell, a Republican, won the governor’s race in 2009, and the party picked up three House seats in 2010. Republicans now represent 8 of Virginia’s 11 Congressional districts.
Political analysts often group Virginia and North Carolina together as the “New South.” Both states — reliably red for years — turned blue in 2008, pushed toward the political center by highly-educated white-collar voters who have moved there and by fast-growing Hispanic populations.
But while similar demographic trends have been reshaping both states’ politics, the changes have been more apparent in Virginia. Mr. Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina was razor thin. In Virginia, however, Mr. Obama’s margin of victory matched his margin nationwide almost exactly.
Virginia’s political balance has shifted far enough left that it is now very close to a tipping point. In fact, it has the smallest Republican lean, 1.9 percentage points, of any state in FiveThirtyEight’s Presidential Voting Index. North Carolina, by contrast, is almost eight percentage points to the right of the national average.
As Mr. Romney’s polling improved nationally after the first presidential debate, North Carolina appeared to fall off the list of main battleground states. Mr. Romney is currently a 79 percent favorite to carry North Carolina, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. In Virginia, Mr. Obama is still favored.
Democrats there have an advantage that Democrats in North Carolina do not: The explosive growth of suburban Washington.
In 1970, Northern Virginia accounted for 12 percent of the state’s population, according to the Almanac of American Politics, and 61 percent of Virginians lived in small towns and rural communities.
But in the 2010 census, one-third of Virginia residents lived in Northern Virginia. The Richmond area and the Hampton Roads region have grown too, and more than half of the state’s residents live in urban areas.
Northern Virginia now has a much greater influence in statewide elections. As the Washington suburbs have expanded, Northern Virginia has become more diverse and better educated. It is home to thousands of government workers and contractors, including many employed by defense and high-tech companies.
Northern Virginia has also become more affluent. The top 3 richest counties in the nation by median income (and 5 of the top 10) are all in the Virginia portion of suburban Washington. Loudoun County is No. 1, followed by Fairfax and Arlington Counties.
Fairfax County — the most populous in the state, with more than a million residents — has been ground zero for the demographic change, Mr. Skelley said. In 1996, Bob Dole edged out Bill Clinton in Fairfax County, and in 2000 George W. Bush beat Al Gore there. By 2008, however, Mr. Obama carried Fairfax County with slightly more than 60 percent of the vote.
Prince William County, southwest of Fairfax, has grown to more than 400,000 residents, and one-fifth of them are African-American and one-fifth Hispanic.
The Richmond area is more politically competitive, Mr. Palazzolo said. The city of Richmond is heavily African-American and Democratic-leaning, but suburban Chesterfield County to the south is Republican territory. Henrico County — which wraps around Richmond — is a tossup. There are state government employees who lean left, and more socially conservative voters who lean right. The eastern end of Henrico County is blue-collar, while the western end looks more like Northern Virginia, affluent and highly-educated.
The Hampton Roads region, along the coast in southest Virginia, is also competitive. There are significant African-American communities in Norfolk and Hampton. But Hampton Roads is also home to a number of military installations, including Marine, Army and Air Force installations as well as the largest naval base in the world, Norfolk Naval Station. Virginia Beach, home to many active and retired military personnel, skews Republican.
Western Virginia is sparsely populated, more rural and economically depressed. It is also ruby red. The gains Democrats have made in Virginia, with a few exceptions, have been in the east.
“If anything,” Mr. Skelley said, “the western, rural part of the state has become more Republican.”
The Bellwether: Montgomery County
Montgomery County has been an almost perfect barometer of Virginia’s statewide political orientation. Virginia Tech, in Blacksburg, is Montgomery County’s stand-in for left-leaning Northern Virginia, while the area around the university is more Old Virginia, Mr. Skelley said.
In the past three presidential elections, Montgomery County has never been more than one percentage point off of the statewide vote shares of the two parties.
The Bottom Line
Mr. Obama is a 71 percent favorite in Virginia, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. The model projects Virginia to be one of the closest states, with Mr. Obama prevailing by 1.5 percentage points. If Mr. Romney over-performs his polling even slightly on Election Day, Virginia’s 13 electoral votes will end up in the Republican column.
Mr. Obama carried Virginia in 2008 by far exceeding John Kerry’s 2004 vote totals in Hampton Roads, the Richmond area and especially in the Washington suburbs.
Virginia “has moved further left since 2008,” Mr. Palazzolo said, “but Romney is more acceptable to moderate Republicans. The McCain and Palin ticket didn’t sell very well with moderate Republican-leaners in Northern Virginia.”
Suburban communities, particularly in Northern Virginia, are likely to decide who carries the state again this year. Prince William, Loudoun, and Henrico Counties may prove decisive, Mr. Skelley said. All are densely populated, and all were won by Mr. Bush in 2004 and by Mr. Obama 2008.
“The candidates who can win the suburbs have always won,” Mr. Skelley said. “In recent years, the suburbs have become more liberal, which has made it easier for Democrats.”
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Presidential Geography: Nevada
The 2012 presidential election is a few days away and there is still time for ads, debates, campaign stops, and polls. While the race will likely come down to about a dozen states, each state truly does play some role and even safe states for either party are needed to guarantee victory in November.
The New York Times and Micah Cohen have been taking a state by state look at each state throughout the the weeks leading up to Election Day. Next up is Nevada.
Nevada:
With less than a week until Election Day, Nevada’s six electoral votes remain pivotal. After three days of campaigning were canceled so he could oversee the federal response to Hurricane Sandy, President Obama returned to the trail Thursday, including a stop in North Las Vegas in the afternoon. That was about the same time that Representative Paul D. Ryan spoke in Reno, Nev.
Nevada should be one of the more promising battleground states for the campaign of Mitt Romney and Mr. Ryan. The state’s economy is in disrepair. Its unemployment rate, 11.8 percent, is the worst in the nation, and personal bankruptcies and foreclosures have ravaged the state.
In addition, although their effect can be overstated, Mormons make up 9 percent of Nevada’s population, tied for the third-largest share of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Mormon voters are expected to overwhelmingly support Mr. Romney, a Mormon himself.
Yet, just a single poll all year has found Mr. Romney leading Mr. Obama in Nevada. The race appears close, but polls show Mr. Obama retaining a consistent, if narrow, lead of 3.4 percentage points. And Nevada remains one of the more solid bricks in Mr. Obama’s Electoral College “firewall.”
How has Mr. Obama’s support in Nevada weathered the state’s struggling economy? Or, as Mr. Ralston put it, “How in the world is the president not getting crushed here?”
Nevada was once reliably red, favoring the Republican candidate relative to the national popular vote in every presidential election but one — 1960 — from 1948 through 2004. The Silver State’s rightward bent began to dissipate in the 1990s and 2000s. Bill Clinton, a Democrat, carried Nevada in 1992 and 1996, although he was helped by the independent candidacy of Ross Perot, Mr. Damore said.
In 2004, Nevada was almost exactly at the national tipping point, only 0.13 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation. Then in 2008, Nevada made the switch. Mr. Obama won nationally by seven percentage points, and he carried the state by 12.5 points. For the first time since 1960, Nevada was more Democratic-leaning than the country.
In 2010, Nevada showed signs that 2008 was not an anomaly. Harry Reid, the Senator majority leader who was battling a Republican wave nationally and poor approval ratings locally, upset expectations (and the polls) to defeat the Republican Sharron Angle in Nevada’s Senate race.
Nevada’s leftward tilt is unlikely to be as strong in 2012 as it was in 2008, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. But the fact that Mr. Obama is favored at all is evidence of how thoroughly Nevada’s political landscape has been remade by the state’s fast-growing minority populations.
Nevada led the nation in population growth for the past two decades, more than doubling in size to 2.7 million, from 1.2 million in 1990. Fueling that growth has been Democratic-leaning demographic groups: Hispanics, Asians and African-Americans. While Nevada’s non-Hispanic white population grew by 12 percent from 2000 to 2010, African-Americans grew by 58 percent, Asians by 116 percent and Hispanics by 82 percent.
Non-Hispanic whites are still a majority in Nevada, but barely, comprising 54 percent of the state. Hispanics are 27 percent, African-Americans are almost 9 percent, and Asians are about 8 percent.
The state’s booming population has also made Nevada more urban, as the growth has been focused primarily in and around Las Vegas and Reno. Nevada is now the third most urban state in terms of population, according to the 2010 census.
Rural Nevada — which has not seen the population boom that Las Vegas and Reno have — is still overwhelmingly Republican. But it accounts for only about 15 percent of the state population, Mr. Damore said.
Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, is home to more than 70 percent of Nevadans. It is a majority minority county and a Democratic stronghold. The core of Las Vegas is the most left-leaning and predominantly Hispanic and African-American. The Las Vegas suburbs are more politically competitive, similar to suburban communities in Colorado or Virginia, Mr. Damore said.
Democratic candidates in statewide races can count on carrying Clark County, but they want to win it by a wide margin to cancel out the G.O.P.’s advantage in rural Nevada, Mr. Ralston said. The vote in Washoe County, then, often decides the winner.
The Bellwether: Washoe County
Democrats have made substantial gains in Washoe County, home to Reno. “Washoe County was traditionally a strong Republican base,” Mr. Damore said, “but over time it has become much more of a swing district.”
In the 2000 presidential election, Washoe County was three percentage points more Republican-leaning than Nevada as a whole. In 2004, it was one point more Republican, and in 2008 Mr. Obama carried Washoe County by just over 12 percentage points, matching the statewide vote almost exactly.
To carry Nevada, Mr. Ralston said, Mr. Romney will almost certainly have to carry Washoe County. Mr. Obama needs only to keep it close there, as long as he performs strongly in Clark County.
The Bottom Line
Mr. Obama is an 80 percent favorite in Nevada, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. Mr. Romney could still win the state, but mostly in situations where he had already reached 270 electoral votes.
Nevada’s growing diversity has made the state more politically competitive, but it does not tell the whole story. Arizona is almost a third Hispanic, but it is still reliably Republican. In Nevada, the fast-growing minority communities have been harnessed by top-notch turnout operations built by Mr. Reid and the 55,0000-member Culinary Union.
“The Hispanic population began to swell especially in the Culinary Union,” Mr. Ralston said, “and they became more and more active as voters, mostly on the Democratic side.”
In contrast, the Nevada Republican Party is disorganized, Mr. Ralston said, and the Romney campaign and the Republican National Committee have had to build an infrastructure from scratch. They have done a decent job, Mr. Ralston said, “But you can’t grow organically in a few months what Reid and company have built in a few election cycles.”
Democrats have amassed a voter registration advantage of 130,000, and early voting in Nevada has so far favored the Democrats, according to an analysis by Mr.Ralston.
At the same time, the state is led by a popular Republican, Gov. Brian Sandoval, who may provide a model for Republican success in the state, Mr. Ralston said.
Mr. Sandoval has claimed the political center, angering the conservative base over taxes and social issues, Mr. Damore said. (Mr. Sandoval has also angered Republicans who feel he has not campaigned enough for Mr. Romney.)
The gains Democrats have made in Nevada appear to be just strong enough to counteract the bad economy and Mr. Romney’s advantage among Mormons. Republicans generally and Mr. Romney specifically can still succeed in the Silver State — as Mr. Sandoval proves — but it’s tougher than it used to be.
The New York Times and Micah Cohen have been taking a state by state look at each state throughout the the weeks leading up to Election Day. Next up is Nevada.
Nevada:
With less than a week until Election Day, Nevada’s six electoral votes remain pivotal. After three days of campaigning were canceled so he could oversee the federal response to Hurricane Sandy, President Obama returned to the trail Thursday, including a stop in North Las Vegas in the afternoon. That was about the same time that Representative Paul D. Ryan spoke in Reno, Nev.
Nevada should be one of the more promising battleground states for the campaign of Mitt Romney and Mr. Ryan. The state’s economy is in disrepair. Its unemployment rate, 11.8 percent, is the worst in the nation, and personal bankruptcies and foreclosures have ravaged the state.
In addition, although their effect can be overstated, Mormons make up 9 percent of Nevada’s population, tied for the third-largest share of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Mormon voters are expected to overwhelmingly support Mr. Romney, a Mormon himself.
Yet, just a single poll all year has found Mr. Romney leading Mr. Obama in Nevada. The race appears close, but polls show Mr. Obama retaining a consistent, if narrow, lead of 3.4 percentage points. And Nevada remains one of the more solid bricks in Mr. Obama’s Electoral College “firewall.”
How has Mr. Obama’s support in Nevada weathered the state’s struggling economy? Or, as Mr. Ralston put it, “How in the world is the president not getting crushed here?”
Nevada was once reliably red, favoring the Republican candidate relative to the national popular vote in every presidential election but one — 1960 — from 1948 through 2004. The Silver State’s rightward bent began to dissipate in the 1990s and 2000s. Bill Clinton, a Democrat, carried Nevada in 1992 and 1996, although he was helped by the independent candidacy of Ross Perot, Mr. Damore said.
In 2004, Nevada was almost exactly at the national tipping point, only 0.13 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation. Then in 2008, Nevada made the switch. Mr. Obama won nationally by seven percentage points, and he carried the state by 12.5 points. For the first time since 1960, Nevada was more Democratic-leaning than the country.
In 2010, Nevada showed signs that 2008 was not an anomaly. Harry Reid, the Senator majority leader who was battling a Republican wave nationally and poor approval ratings locally, upset expectations (and the polls) to defeat the Republican Sharron Angle in Nevada’s Senate race.
Nevada’s leftward tilt is unlikely to be as strong in 2012 as it was in 2008, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. But the fact that Mr. Obama is favored at all is evidence of how thoroughly Nevada’s political landscape has been remade by the state’s fast-growing minority populations.
Nevada led the nation in population growth for the past two decades, more than doubling in size to 2.7 million, from 1.2 million in 1990. Fueling that growth has been Democratic-leaning demographic groups: Hispanics, Asians and African-Americans. While Nevada’s non-Hispanic white population grew by 12 percent from 2000 to 2010, African-Americans grew by 58 percent, Asians by 116 percent and Hispanics by 82 percent.
Non-Hispanic whites are still a majority in Nevada, but barely, comprising 54 percent of the state. Hispanics are 27 percent, African-Americans are almost 9 percent, and Asians are about 8 percent.
The state’s booming population has also made Nevada more urban, as the growth has been focused primarily in and around Las Vegas and Reno. Nevada is now the third most urban state in terms of population, according to the 2010 census.
Rural Nevada — which has not seen the population boom that Las Vegas and Reno have — is still overwhelmingly Republican. But it accounts for only about 15 percent of the state population, Mr. Damore said.
Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, is home to more than 70 percent of Nevadans. It is a majority minority county and a Democratic stronghold. The core of Las Vegas is the most left-leaning and predominantly Hispanic and African-American. The Las Vegas suburbs are more politically competitive, similar to suburban communities in Colorado or Virginia, Mr. Damore said.
Democratic candidates in statewide races can count on carrying Clark County, but they want to win it by a wide margin to cancel out the G.O.P.’s advantage in rural Nevada, Mr. Ralston said. The vote in Washoe County, then, often decides the winner.
The Bellwether: Washoe County
Democrats have made substantial gains in Washoe County, home to Reno. “Washoe County was traditionally a strong Republican base,” Mr. Damore said, “but over time it has become much more of a swing district.”
In the 2000 presidential election, Washoe County was three percentage points more Republican-leaning than Nevada as a whole. In 2004, it was one point more Republican, and in 2008 Mr. Obama carried Washoe County by just over 12 percentage points, matching the statewide vote almost exactly.
To carry Nevada, Mr. Ralston said, Mr. Romney will almost certainly have to carry Washoe County. Mr. Obama needs only to keep it close there, as long as he performs strongly in Clark County.
The Bottom Line
Mr. Obama is an 80 percent favorite in Nevada, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. Mr. Romney could still win the state, but mostly in situations where he had already reached 270 electoral votes.
Nevada’s growing diversity has made the state more politically competitive, but it does not tell the whole story. Arizona is almost a third Hispanic, but it is still reliably Republican. In Nevada, the fast-growing minority communities have been harnessed by top-notch turnout operations built by Mr. Reid and the 55,0000-member Culinary Union.
“The Hispanic population began to swell especially in the Culinary Union,” Mr. Ralston said, “and they became more and more active as voters, mostly on the Democratic side.”
In contrast, the Nevada Republican Party is disorganized, Mr. Ralston said, and the Romney campaign and the Republican National Committee have had to build an infrastructure from scratch. They have done a decent job, Mr. Ralston said, “But you can’t grow organically in a few months what Reid and company have built in a few election cycles.”
Democrats have amassed a voter registration advantage of 130,000, and early voting in Nevada has so far favored the Democrats, according to an analysis by Mr.Ralston.
At the same time, the state is led by a popular Republican, Gov. Brian Sandoval, who may provide a model for Republican success in the state, Mr. Ralston said.
Mr. Sandoval has claimed the political center, angering the conservative base over taxes and social issues, Mr. Damore said. (Mr. Sandoval has also angered Republicans who feel he has not campaigned enough for Mr. Romney.)
The gains Democrats have made in Nevada appear to be just strong enough to counteract the bad economy and Mr. Romney’s advantage among Mormons. Republicans generally and Mr. Romney specifically can still succeed in the Silver State — as Mr. Sandoval proves — but it’s tougher than it used to be.
10 U.S. House races to watch
As election day nears, there are multiple battles to watch. There is the presidential contest. There are races for the U.S. Senate. And there are races for the U.S. House. Each has its own storylines and interesting developments. The presidential race is beginning to look to close to call with days to go. While it looks like despite a potential for Republican pickups that would give them control of the U.S. Senate, polls are breaking in a way that presents a similar U.S. Senate likely to emerge by the morning of November 7th. The same can be said about the status quo nature of the U.S. House with control likely to stay in the hands of the current party in power, the Republicans. However, there are certainly several races on the House side that can become nail bitters and tight contests. The New York Times and Jennifer Steinhauer take a look at 10 races worth watching.
The list
California’s 15th District
History and tradition suggest that Representative Pete Stark, who has served nearly four decades, should cruise to re-election, and maybe indeed he will. But this race is on the radar screen because Mr. Stark, who has not faced a serious challenge in years, has been knocked off his game many times by competition — a situation illustrated by his announcement at California newspaper editorial board meeting, absent any proof, that some of its members had donated to his primary opponent. No Republican qualified in the California primary for this race, so Mr. Stark, 81, will have to beat back a Dublin City Council member, Eric Swalwell, a perky 31-year-old prosecutor with the stomach for a fight.
California’s 36th District
For eight terms, Representative Mary Bono Mack, the Republican incumbent, has won in this largely blue state, and redistricting seemed to favor another good outcome for her. But she found herself in a scrappy fight against the Democrat, Dr. Raul Ruiz, an emergency room physician. Latinos make up nearly a third of the district’s voters, and Ms. Bono Mack, one of the most moderate Republicans in the House may have boo-booed when she said on the campaign trail that she would reach out to Latinos “after the election.” Twist: If she loses, and her husband, Representative Connie Mack of Florida,fails in his Senate bid, they will be a married Congressional couple out of work.
Colorado’s 6th District
As goes this district, so likely goes the presidential candidate in this western bellwether state. Representative Mike Coffman, a favorite of the Tea Party movement, is known for his colorful statements, including calling into question President Obama’s American-ness, and his path to a third term narrowed after political mapmakers redrew his overwhelmingly Republican district to include near-equal amounts of registered Republican, Democratic and independent voters. His Democratic rival, Joe Miklosi, a state lawmaker, has struggled to raise money for his own campaign and has had to rely on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to keep afloat.
Florida’s 18th District
Representative Allen B. West is one of the few nationally known freshmen Republicans, a former Army officer who in 2010 became one of only two black Republicans to be elected to the House since Reconstruction. A Tea Party favorite who works the talk-show circuit and is a fund-raising powerhouse, he is in a too-close-to-call contest with a wealthy construction executive, Patrick Murphy, and Democrats would love to see Mr. West go. This race has also featured some of the nastiest ads, in a year with a high bar for that.
Illinois’s 17th District
Among the many lawmakers who came to Washington with no political experience, Representative Bobby Schilling was among the most unlikely. The affable pizzeria-owning father of 10 won in a district near the Iowa border that had not elected a Republican in nearly 30 years, and Illinois Democrats drew him into an even tougher district this year, making him one of the most vulnerable incumbents. But his opponent Cheri Bustos, a former East Moline alderwoman and close ally of Senator Richard J. Durbin, has had to work hard to fight Mr. Schilling, who has tried to charm the working-class voters in this district. The race has remained a nail-biter, though Democrats think this one is in the bag.
Iowa’s 3rd District
This race was the war of the nice guys. Iowa lost a seat after the 2010 census, and two veteran incumbents — Representatives Leonard L. Boswell, a Democrat, and Tom Latham, a Republican — found themselves facing off in a new district made up of a nearly equal number of Republican, Democratic and independent voters. The cash advantage went to Mr. Latham, who got a ton of fund-raising help from his B.F.F., House speaker, John A. Boehner. But more of the district is currently held by Mr. Boswell, and Mr. Obama enjoys a narrow edge in the state.
Georgia’s 12th District
The last white Democrat laboring in the deep South, Representative John Barrow has hung on through every attack that Republicans have launched over the course of four terms. This year, he is forced to compete in an even more Republican district, and has worked to emphasize his Blue Dog status and his “I vote my district not with the president” cred. His opponent is Lee Anderson, a state representative who nabbed the Republican nomination by a mere 159 votes in a primary runoff, and Mr. Barrow has given as hard as he has gotten in this close race.
Massachusetts’s 6th District
So, an openly gay Republican member of the House from Massachusetts? Get ready, as it could happen. Representative John F. Tierney, an eight-term Democrat, should have cruised to re-elected, but he has been dogged with nagging questions about his in-laws’ illegal offshore gambling enterprise. His opponent is the former state senator Richard Tisei, an openly gay Republican who supports abortion rights, and polling shows Mr. Tisei heading into the last month of his campaign with a strong lead.
New York’s 27th District
There are many close races in New York, and a few involving freshmen, but the first-term incumbent, Representative Kathy Hochul, is considered among the most vulnerable Democrats in the country. Ms. Hochul, a former county clerk, won her seat in a closely watched special election in a conservative district in the Buffalo area last year in a race that was viewed nationally as a referendum on a Republican proposal in Washington to overhaul Medicare. This year, redistricting has given her an even more Republican district than the one she had and her well-known Republican opponent, Chris Collins, the former Erie County executive, has gotten a lot of help from his party.
Utah’s 4th District
Representative Jim Matheson, one of the last remaining Blue Dogs, is used to winning in a district and state where the Republican nominee for president always prevails. But this time, Mr. Matheson is in a battle against Mayor Mia Love of Saratoga Springs, who is looking to become the first black woman ever to join the House of Representatives as a Republican. Ms. Love is sure to have big coattails from Mitt Romney to ride, and her party is giving her strong support, but incumbency is not without its benefits, even in this district.
The list
California’s 15th District
History and tradition suggest that Representative Pete Stark, who has served nearly four decades, should cruise to re-election, and maybe indeed he will. But this race is on the radar screen because Mr. Stark, who has not faced a serious challenge in years, has been knocked off his game many times by competition — a situation illustrated by his announcement at California newspaper editorial board meeting, absent any proof, that some of its members had donated to his primary opponent. No Republican qualified in the California primary for this race, so Mr. Stark, 81, will have to beat back a Dublin City Council member, Eric Swalwell, a perky 31-year-old prosecutor with the stomach for a fight.
California’s 36th District
For eight terms, Representative Mary Bono Mack, the Republican incumbent, has won in this largely blue state, and redistricting seemed to favor another good outcome for her. But she found herself in a scrappy fight against the Democrat, Dr. Raul Ruiz, an emergency room physician. Latinos make up nearly a third of the district’s voters, and Ms. Bono Mack, one of the most moderate Republicans in the House may have boo-booed when she said on the campaign trail that she would reach out to Latinos “after the election.” Twist: If she loses, and her husband, Representative Connie Mack of Florida,fails in his Senate bid, they will be a married Congressional couple out of work.
Colorado’s 6th District
As goes this district, so likely goes the presidential candidate in this western bellwether state. Representative Mike Coffman, a favorite of the Tea Party movement, is known for his colorful statements, including calling into question President Obama’s American-ness, and his path to a third term narrowed after political mapmakers redrew his overwhelmingly Republican district to include near-equal amounts of registered Republican, Democratic and independent voters. His Democratic rival, Joe Miklosi, a state lawmaker, has struggled to raise money for his own campaign and has had to rely on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to keep afloat.
Florida’s 18th District
Representative Allen B. West is one of the few nationally known freshmen Republicans, a former Army officer who in 2010 became one of only two black Republicans to be elected to the House since Reconstruction. A Tea Party favorite who works the talk-show circuit and is a fund-raising powerhouse, he is in a too-close-to-call contest with a wealthy construction executive, Patrick Murphy, and Democrats would love to see Mr. West go. This race has also featured some of the nastiest ads, in a year with a high bar for that.
Illinois’s 17th District
Among the many lawmakers who came to Washington with no political experience, Representative Bobby Schilling was among the most unlikely. The affable pizzeria-owning father of 10 won in a district near the Iowa border that had not elected a Republican in nearly 30 years, and Illinois Democrats drew him into an even tougher district this year, making him one of the most vulnerable incumbents. But his opponent Cheri Bustos, a former East Moline alderwoman and close ally of Senator Richard J. Durbin, has had to work hard to fight Mr. Schilling, who has tried to charm the working-class voters in this district. The race has remained a nail-biter, though Democrats think this one is in the bag.
Iowa’s 3rd District
This race was the war of the nice guys. Iowa lost a seat after the 2010 census, and two veteran incumbents — Representatives Leonard L. Boswell, a Democrat, and Tom Latham, a Republican — found themselves facing off in a new district made up of a nearly equal number of Republican, Democratic and independent voters. The cash advantage went to Mr. Latham, who got a ton of fund-raising help from his B.F.F., House speaker, John A. Boehner. But more of the district is currently held by Mr. Boswell, and Mr. Obama enjoys a narrow edge in the state.
Georgia’s 12th District
The last white Democrat laboring in the deep South, Representative John Barrow has hung on through every attack that Republicans have launched over the course of four terms. This year, he is forced to compete in an even more Republican district, and has worked to emphasize his Blue Dog status and his “I vote my district not with the president” cred. His opponent is Lee Anderson, a state representative who nabbed the Republican nomination by a mere 159 votes in a primary runoff, and Mr. Barrow has given as hard as he has gotten in this close race.
Massachusetts’s 6th District
So, an openly gay Republican member of the House from Massachusetts? Get ready, as it could happen. Representative John F. Tierney, an eight-term Democrat, should have cruised to re-elected, but he has been dogged with nagging questions about his in-laws’ illegal offshore gambling enterprise. His opponent is the former state senator Richard Tisei, an openly gay Republican who supports abortion rights, and polling shows Mr. Tisei heading into the last month of his campaign with a strong lead.
New York’s 27th District
There are many close races in New York, and a few involving freshmen, but the first-term incumbent, Representative Kathy Hochul, is considered among the most vulnerable Democrats in the country. Ms. Hochul, a former county clerk, won her seat in a closely watched special election in a conservative district in the Buffalo area last year in a race that was viewed nationally as a referendum on a Republican proposal in Washington to overhaul Medicare. This year, redistricting has given her an even more Republican district than the one she had and her well-known Republican opponent, Chris Collins, the former Erie County executive, has gotten a lot of help from his party.
Utah’s 4th District
Representative Jim Matheson, one of the last remaining Blue Dogs, is used to winning in a district and state where the Republican nominee for president always prevails. But this time, Mr. Matheson is in a battle against Mayor Mia Love of Saratoga Springs, who is looking to become the first black woman ever to join the House of Representatives as a Republican. Ms. Love is sure to have big coattails from Mitt Romney to ride, and her party is giving her strong support, but incumbency is not without its benefits, even in this district.
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