15 Gubernatorial Elections to Watch

While most of the attention from 2010 is directed towards the Tea Party and Republican Party's success in picking up over 50 seats as they regained control of the U.S. House, there was also a major shift in several states with gubernatorial and legislative elections. Those shifts occurred in major states like Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania; all states typically monitored during a presidential election. Add in Virginia in 2009 and you have a lot of success for Republicans at the state level. Now, it is time for elections in all those states over the next year plus. The impact in 2013/2014 might not be as large as 2009/2010 when redistricting was about to occur and new legislative and congressional lines were drawn based on population shifts. With the next major gubernatorial election cycle ahead, there are multiple races to watch. The Washington Post's the Fix has listed 15.

Here is that list to watch:

15. New Hampshire (Democratic-controlled): There’s a new Sununu on the scene. Republican Chris Sununu, the son of former governor and White House chief of staff John H. Sununu and brother of former senator John E. Sununu, is reportedly looking at challenging first-term Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) in 2014. Other GOP options include former congressman Frank Guinta, who lost his reelection bid in 2012 after one term.

14. Arizona (Republican-controlled): Former Clinton White House aide Fred DuVal (D) picked up endorsements this week from a trio of former Democratic governors. But he may not have the field to himself, with state Rep. Chad Campbell (D) showing interest, too. There hasn’t been much buzz lately about Gov. Jan Brewer (R) challenging the state Constitution to pursue another term (there had been some late last year), and if she doesn’t try to run again, look for a potentially crowded GOP field. Republicans such as Secretary of State Ken Bennett, state Treasurer Doug Ducey and Mesa Mayor Scott Smith could possibly jump in alongside former Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman, the AP notes.

13. Wisconsin (R): Having survived a recall attempt, Gov. Scott Walker (R) is taking his story to the national stage, stoking buzz about 2016. Walker is teaming up with former George W. Bush speechwriter Marc Thiessen to pen a book about his time as governor, including his high-profile clash with labor activists. As for 2014, Walker is in decent shape early on, and Democrats have yet to find a candidate. If and when they do, this race could become more interesting.

12. Connecticut (D): Former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R) officially launched his rematch with Gov. Dan Malloy (D) last month, and his campaign quickly released a poll suggesting that Malloy is highly beatable. This was a very close race in 2010, with Malloy winning by about 7,000 votes. But that was a good GOP year, and running as an incumbent is often beneficial. For now, Foley’s got a shot, but Malloy’s the favorite.

11. Massachusetts (D): Former Republican senator Scott Brown’s flirtation with a New Hampshire Senate campaign would seem to be a pretty good indication that he won’t run for Massachusetts governor in 2014. Then again, he might surprise us. Next in line is 2010 nominee Charlie Baker, who ran a solid campaign but came up short in a three-way race. Baker says he will decide on a rematch by the fall.

10. Ohio (R): It’s looking as though Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald (D),who has formed an exploratory committee, is going to be the candidate Democrats end up coalescing around. Republican Gov. John Kasich’s numbers look at whole lot better than they once did, but he’s far from invulnerable. Republican state legislators recently threw out Kasich’s proposed tax plan, a development Democrats seized on to suggest he is out of step with most of the state.

9. Illinois (D): The buzz about a potential bid by state Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) has been ramping up, drawing attention to a pol long seen in Democratic circles as a rising star. Of course, Madigan will have to beat Gov. Pat Quinn (D) in a primary — but his numbers have been downright lousy. Meanwhile, don’t lose sight of Republican Bruce Rauner (R). The venture capitalist who is exploring a bid has raised a hefty $1.3 million.

8. South Carolina (R): Vincent Sheheen’s news moves this race up the Line one spot. His announcement, paired with Elizabeth Colbert Busch’s House bid, has given South Carolina Democrats something to get jazzed about for the first time in, well, a long time. But Republicans are trying to tie both to the national Democratic Party — and if they are successful, it could be another disappointing cycle for Democrats in the Palmetto State, given how unpopular President Obama is there.

7. Michigan (R): The good news for Democrats? Gov. Rick Snyder (R) continues to have a higher disapproval than approval rating, and 2010 opponent and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) won’t seek a rematch of his 18-point loss. The bad news? It’s not clear who will make the race. The Democratic bench in Michigan remains very thin despite the state’s blue lean, and with Rep. Gary Peters (D) looking like a good bet for the open Senate seat, it’s not clear who else will step forward.

6. Virginia (R): Both former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe and state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) are starting to take their lumps, with McAuliffe being the subject of scrutiny related to his resignation from GreenTech Automotive and Cuccinelli being targeted for failing to disclose his stock holdings on time. Expect both men to stumble repeatedly in the hottest race of 2013.

5. Pennsylvania (R): Schwartz gives Democrats a top candidate in this race. She was the House Democratic campaign arm’s chief fundraiser, which means she knows how to bring in big bucks. Other Democratic candidates might jump in, but the early read is that Schwartz has the inside track. Polling shows Corbett is vulnerable, so he’s got some work to do if he’s going to win a second term.

4. Arkansas (D): There’s no question that Mike Ross’s decision to run gives Democrats a big boost here. What was beginning to look like a lost cause for the party suddenly looks like a race where they have some hope. Still, Ross will have to get by former lieutenant governor Bill Halter in the primary while former congressman Asa Hutchinson (R) appears to have a clearer path to the GOP nomination. Republicans have the edge here, but not by as much as they did before Ross jumped in.

3. Maine (R): A new poll shows that Gov. Paul LePage (R), despite his unpopularity, could very well survive in a three-way contest. If 2010 independent nominee Eliot Cutler runs as a Democrat, though, Cutler would be an eight-point favorite in a head-to-head race. Former governor John Baldacci’s (D) flirtation with running should give Democrats great pause; he exited office with terrible approval ratings.

2. Rhode Island (Independent-controlled): What will unpopular Gov. Lincoln Chafee (I) do? He could become a Democrat – something Democratic Governors Association Chairman Peter Shumlin appeared to welcome recently – but he might find himself running against two top contenders (Treasurer Gina Raimondo and Providence Mayor Angel Taveras) if they decide to make bids. What’s more, the DGA isn’t going to endorse Chafee or anyone in a contested Democratic race, a national Democrat noted. (The group will simply support the eventual nominee.) If he runs as an independent, Chafee may still lose a three-way race. There are not a lot of outs for him in this race.

1. Florida (R): The good news for former governor Charlie Crist (D) is that it doesn’t sound as if 2010 nominee Alex Sink is going to run. If Crist runs and ends up the Democratic nominee, and Gov. Rick Scott (R) isn’t felled in a primary, we could be in for an interesting Sunshine State general election. In one corner would be Scott, who has angered both the political left and the right. In the other, Crist, who abandoned the GOP for a Democratic Party in which some voters may be skeptical of him. Money talks in the state with so many expensive media markets. Crist and Scott (a huge self-funder in 2010) would each be expected to spend big. In the end, this still looks like a very tough hold for the GOP.