Tuesday, July 23, 2013

If not Hillary, then who?...in 2016...

Much of the talk at least on the Democratic side for 2016 has seemed to revolve around whether or not Hillary Clinton will run or not. The former First Lady, U.S. Senator, and U.S Secretary of State came very close to the Democratic nomination in 2008 when she lost to then-Senator Barack Obama. Now with 2016 on the horizon, she could almost certainly break through the cracked ceiling she left. It will be hard to argue against her in terms of qualifications and popularity. However, with anything; you need to look to the next best solution if your top choice is not available. And that is where Chris Cillizza and the Washington Post's The Fix come in with 9 individuals who could be the Democratic nominee in 2016 if not her. This is a ranking of potential candidates...with Clinton at the top based on polls and her strength over the field.

Here is that list:
10) Brian Schweitzer: The former Montana governor said no to running for the Senate in 2014, in part because he wants to keep his eye on 2016, according to people familiar with his decision making. Okay. But the way he went about considering the Senate race raised questions about his readiness for a national stage. 

9) Elizabeth Warren: Out of the women on this list not named Hillary, Warren has the most potential as a presidential candidate. She is beloved by the left and showed in her 2012 Senate race that she can raise a ton of money. (She brought in more than $42 million for that race.) So, why is Warren ranked this low? Because she has expressed no public interest in running.

8) Amy Klobuchar: We’ve written many times that no politician ever goes to Iowa accidentally. So, the Minnesota senator’s trip to the Hawkeye State next month means only one thing: She wants to be part of the great-mentioned when it comes to 2016. Klobuchar’s résuméis very impressive: a two-term U.S. senator and, before that, a county attorney.

7) Howard Dean: It’s been a decade since the former Vermont governor lit the Democratic world on fire with his remarkable if ultimately flawed presidential candidacy. While Dean hasn’t been an active candidate since then, he retains something of a following among liberals, and if there is a segment of the party looking for an alternative to Clinton, he could be it.

6) Martin O’Malley: On paper, the Maryland governor looks great. He’s built a governing record in the Old Line State — guns, the death penalty, gay marriage, etc. — that liberals will love. He’s handsome. And, he badly wants to be president. Like, really badly. But, as the New Republic’s Alec MacGillis noted in a recent piece on O’Malley: “For all his gym-rat, pub-rock credentials, O’Malley is not a very charismatic politician.” There is a “Democratic Tim Pawlenty” narrative building around O’Malley at the moment.

5) Cory Booker: The Newark mayor will — unless a political meteor strikes — walk into a Senate seat this fall. That will immediately make him the second most prominent elected African American official in the country — if he isn’t already. With Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) offering a unequivocal pledge not to run in 2016, Booker will come under heavy pressure to look at the race.

4) Kirsten Gillibrand: No politician has impressed us more in the last few months than Gillibrand. Her work on gathering co-sponsors for the military sexual-assault measure she is pushing has shown a keen understanding of politics and how to use pressure to get what you want.

3) Andrew Cuomo: The New York governor doesn’t talk much about 2016, but his work over the past state legislative session suggests he has an eye on building a résuméfor that race. A sampling of his accomplishments via Real Clear Politics’ Scott Conroy: “A landmark gun-control law, his third on-time budget in a row, a boost in the minimum wage, new teacher evaluation standards, and a development-boosting initiative for economically distressed upstate New York.”

2) Joe Biden: Ah, God love him. The Biden profile in GQ magazine captured everything that people love about Biden and everything that makes him a risky bet as a presidential candidate. And it’s the same thing. The vice president is a throwback to an age when politicians went off script, said what they thought and let the chips fall where they may. It’s part of his appeal, but it’s also why staying on message is so incredibly difficult for him.

1) Hillary Clinton: From Nancy Pelosi to David Axelrod, everyone thinks Clinton is running and that she will be the nominee. We continue to believe that she hasn’t made up her mind but that, barring a health scare, she will run. Clinton would like to be president, and anyone who has that desire would be foolish to pass up a race that looks as favorable as this one does for her. And, Hillary Clinton is not foolish.