Wednesday, September 11, 2013

College Football Week 3 Preview

Week 2 had a similar feel as Week 1 when it comes to the quality of games and some of excitement provided. There were not as many shockers like the FCS victories over FBS schools. There were conferences starting to align a bit as after two weeks a lot of teams have played at least one divisional foe. For the second straight week, Georgia found themselves in a close contest. Luckily for them, there was a different outcome. Miami (FL) might have had one of the biggest wins of the week and one of their biggest wins in the last five years. The biggest losers in Week 2 might have been Texas and USC who both suffered their first loss of the year and find themselves on the outside of the Top 25. Week 3 is thin with big matchups again but each week is a build up big time conference games including Alabama at Texas A&M this weekend.

Looking back at last week, both Louisville and Clemson cruised showing why they are ranked where they are. Louisville was much sharper but neither contest was close. Stanford and Texas A&M were equally impressive in victory. A&M still could see some improvement on defense but if their offense can do what is has done the first two weeks, they might be able to outscore Alabama and "steal" another win against them. Oregon State and Kansas State looked much better in bounce back games for them after losing to FCS schools in Week 1. Nebraska as well looked much more dominant as they truly played up to their ability after limping to victory in Week 1. Finally, Boise State looked more complete against a lesser team but still could have work to do this year. Something they are fairly not used to the last decade.

In my top 5 for Week 2, I went 5-0 bringing my record to 9-1 on the year. Northwestern continues to look good and might be a surprise team to watch in the Big Ten. Michigan and Ohio State look to be the best two teams in the conference, but Northwestern could make a case for third best and will have a chance to prove it with each win especially when they move into their conference slate. Virginia at least kept Oregon under 60 but the Ducks are truly explosive on offense and maybe their defense doesn't get enough credit because the games aren't close and likely minus a couple conference games; most won't be at this point. Florida did not look 100% or very efficient in Week 1 against an easy opponent. They made similar mistakes in Week 2 against a better opponent and one much hungrier to prove something. The Hurricanes finally showed what they can do when they play top talent. Head coach Al Golden has them going in the right direction and a couple more big wins this year could have them playing for a conference title after a bit of a drought for them.

The battle in the Big House was at times a blowout and at times a nail biter similar to last year's contest between Michigan and Notre Dame. QB Devin Gardner for Michigan could rise into the Heisman conversation if his high play continues. At second half mistake let the Irish back in the game and something for him to grow from. Notre Dame still looks like a talented team but their luck will not take them back to a title game appearance as this loss in all likelihood. Finally, Georgia was tested once again and QB Aaron Murray played a bit better answered each challenge South Carolina threw his way. It was far from easy but unlike against Clemson, they were able to create some breathing room and that provided enough separation to escape with a win.

Now comes this week's games to spotlight and the weekly top 5.

Games to highlight in Week 3:
#22 TCU at Texas Tech: TCU enters their Big 12 schedule and they could get a good test before tougher games when they travel to Lubbock to face the Red Raiders.

Tennessee at #2 Oregon: Oregon likely poses too matchup issues for the Volunteers but it could be good to see how they matchup with a SEC squad as they will likely need to go through the eventual conference champion to win a national title.

#3 Ohio State at California: California on paper does not matchup with Ohio State. The Buckeyes played more inspired in Week 2 and it should be interesting to see how strong they come out against a Cal team that has at times played inspired against a couple top teams.

Top 5 Games of Week 3 (9-1):
5) #23 Washington at Illinois: Washington had a solid win to start the year while Illinois has been playing much more inspired ball this year after a few down years. If this game was out west, it might be not be as close as it could get. However, the Huskies look very balanced on offense and should wear down Illinois as the game goes on. PICK: WASHINGTON

4) #15 Wisconsin at Arizona State: While only having played one game, Arizona State certainly looked like a top 25 type of team. A big matchup with Wisconsin could solidify that status with a win. While Wisconsin looks to be a bit more aggressive this year and it could be a physical type of game where each possession truly matters. The Badgers are a bit more talented and start to separate in the 4th quarter. PICK: WISCONSIN

3) Mississippi at Texas: Ole Miss shocked Vanderbilt in Week 1 and followed that up with a solid win in Week 2. They get a very good test on the road against Texas. The Longhorns got run over against BYU and will likely come out angry at home. Their defense will likely still have a few holes but last weekend they played at an all time bad level. Improving a bit should be enough to hold the Rebels as their offense can score and QB David Ashe has shown the ability to keep fighting. PICK: TEXAS

2) #17 UCLA at #16 Nebraska: This is a great Pac-12-Big Ten matchup early in the year. The Bruins might be the third best team out west only behind Oregon and Stanford and likely will face either one of those teams for a Pac-12 crown. While Nebraska was sluggish in Week 1 and dangerous in Week 2. It could be hard to tell which squad shows up in Week 3 but most likely the latter with this type of contest. Nebraska's defense is not living up to their legacy of title contending teams and the Bruins look capable of exposing the holes there. It will be close throughout. PICK: UCLA

1) #1 Alabama at #6 Texas A&M: The Aggies shocked most people last year especially Alabama with their big November victory on road. Now the Crimson Tide know what to expect from Texas A&M and their Heisman QB Johnny Manziel. Manziel has looked very good so far this year but does need to keep himself in check to avoid any costly penalties or mistakes. The offense line of Alabama looked horrible in Week 1 and if A&M can keep the pressure on Alabama's offense, it will likely set up a similar ending as last year. Special teams will be key for the Aggies as well based on what Alabama did against Virginia Tech. That is ultimately what cost the Hokies the game. Manziel shines and the game is tight but Alabama head coach Nick Saban is very similar to New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichek: they don't usually lose rematches too often. That is something that might be enough to give Alabama a slight edge. PICK: ALABAMA

There is similar excitement for Week 3 as college football continues to provide shockers, big games, and lots of excitement. National title aspirations again will be in play in the "big game of the week". Clemson won a big one to start the year. Georgia and Michigan continued the trend in Week 2. Either Alabama or Texas A&M will add their name as the top teams start to separate themselves.

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