Wednesday, September 25, 2013

NFL Week 4 Preview

Week 3 provided a few down to the wire games and a few shockers. It also saw teams like Denver and Seattle continue their dominance and Miami and Kansas City continue their surge. of great action to follow opening weekend as 10 games were decided by a touchdown or less. Chicago, New Orleans, and New England also enter Week 4 at 3-0 and have been winning in different ways based on their talent and strengths. The four games I highlighted to watch last week had a mix of drama and excitement. The Eagles kept things close throughout the game against the Chiefs but Kansas City was able to continue their solid mix of solid defense with timely offense and a few big plays to hold off Philadelphia with a late score to seal the deal. The Bengals-Packers game had a little of everything. Cincinnati jumped out to a 14-0 lead before giving up 30 straight points and then Green Bay would give up 20 points. Both QBs made multiple bad plays and it was the Packers that made a costly late turnover and fell short on a major 4th down all in one play that decided the game.  The Texans were looking to make a statement in a potential playoff preview when they visited the Ravens with former Baltimore S Ed Reed making his first start against his former team. Recently retired MLB Ray Lewis was on the sideline for the game and he may have provided enough inspiration as Baltimore woke up in the second half and was doing most of their scoring on defense and special teams to pull away. Finally, Falcons' QB Matt Ryan showed his ice cold personality late in a tight game with a big touchdown to take the lead but Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill provided his own magic with a floating throw to secure the late win and keep the Miami unbeaten.

As the focus now turns to Week 4, there are 6 teams are still seeking their first win while 7 others hope to stay unbeaten. There will be one matchup of two unbeatens and one matchup of two teams without wins so something will change there.With my picks, I did not see some upsets coming this past week and went 10-6 to move to 36-12.

Here are this week's top 4 and the rest.

TOP 4

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans: Both are looking to prove something this week. The Seahawks want to show they can be just as dominant on the road as they are at home while the Texans are looking to show they can defeat a top team and make their own case for their potential championship aspirations. Both teams will likely look to get their running games going early to set a strong tone on the line of scrimmage. QB Matt Schaub is hoping to find enough holes in a very good defense and needs to be careful because his turnovers has been costly like last week. The Texans have enough talent to pull off this at home, but Schaub will have a big mistake that opens the door for Seattle and they edge out a close one. PICK: SEAHAWKS

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos: While this might turn into a route, both teams feature explosive offenses and lots of points between the two would not be out of the question. QB Peyton Manning should be able to exploit the Philadelphia defense and slowly continue his epic season. Denver has not shown to be a locked down defense so like the first few games under Chip Kelly, the Philadelphia offense will make some big plays down the field but it won't be enough. PICK: BRONCOS

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday Night): The Patriots have looked nothing like a 3-0 team while the Falcons are one of the biggest surprises this year at 1-2. On that premise, it would seem this is a must win for Atlanta and they should be able to use their superior talent to power past even the greatness of QB Tom Brady. However, the Falcons' have been a bit wounded in the early part of the year especially with star WR Roddy White. The Falcons do enough through most of the game, but somehow Brady works some magic late as the Patriots' defense keeps it close. In a late shocker, the Patriots escape undefeated and leave the Falcons in bad shape after 4 games. PICK: PATRIOTS

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (Monday Night): The Miami Dolphins had a good offseason with acquisitions on both sides of the ball and that combined with QB Ryan Tannehill taking some steps forward have allowed them to start 3-0. The Saints started 0-4 last year but now with their head coach back their explosive offense has returned. The biggest difference has been a tighter defensive effort by New Orleans. They will be able to potentially create an additional opportunity for QB Drew Brees and the offense. Miami keeps it close during the first half, but New Orleans' has a bit more punch and will get a couple big scores before Miami closes the gap slightly late. PICK: SAINTS

THE REST

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (Thursday Night): The Rams' offense did not very good at all this past week. The 49ers are 1-2 and desperately need this win. Look for San Francisco to throw a little bit of everything at St. Louis. Rams' keep it close through one quarter but the 49ers start to find ways to pull away as this could become a route if their offense gets clicking. PICK: 49ers

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: There is probably not too much to say here. The Colts should be able to move the ball pretty much at will as the Jaguars has struggled in all phases. A couple touchdowns by Indianapolis might be more than enough. PICK: COLTS

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings in London: The NFL games in London have not exactly been Super Bowl caliber contests. This one features two 0-3 teams so it could be close but also sloppy. HB Adrian Peterson should be able to find some holes and the Vikings will likely have a couple opportunities for turnovers with a struggling offensive line that causes QB Ben Roethlisberger to take occasional risky plays. It is hard to see the Steelers dropping to 0-4 though. They have not been great but have been gritty. They can certainly follow the formula of the Browns by getting the ball to TE Heath Miller while finding their two speedy receivers for a couple big plays. Close throughout with a big defensive stop by Pittsburgh to seal it. PICK: STEELERS

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: The Ravens' offense is still struggling to obtain a necessary balance and put points up the way they were capable of during their playoff run last year. QB EJ Manuel for the Bills and their offense have been slowly improving while trying to limit mistakes. LB Kiko Alonso for the Bills might be an x-factor and could tip the game in Buffalo's favor if they can keep it close. However, like last week; Baltimore's defense will step up to help their offense who should be able to do enough to survive a tougher than probably expected road test. PICK: RAVENS

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: Can the Browns move to 3-2 and potentially sole possession of first in the AFC North? The Bengals have more on both sides but since its a divisional game against state rivals this one will be close. If Cleveland can force a could turnovers and use TE Cameron Jordan the way they have the last two weeks, they have a shot to win. In the end like last week against Green Bay, the defense does enough and QB Andy Dalton combines with WR AJ Green for a couple of key scores. PICK: BENGALS

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: The Bears have looked very good especially on defense this year while the Lions have shown an expanded approach on offense with the acquisition of HB Reggie Bush who has looked about as good as ever. The big matchups to watch will be the QB-WR duos as they will essentially be trying to outduel each other. The Lions' front four might be a bit underrated and will be able to put some pressure on the Bears' offense. That pressure could force a couple turnovers by QB Jay Cutler and those might set the tone and pace. The Bears should be able to get possibly one themselves. The Lions do just enough to hold off the Bears in a shootout. PICK: LIONS

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs: The Giants and QB Eli Manning look nothing like the team that has been able to win 2 Super Bowl in recent years. Based on what we've seen, Kansas City has the ability to force a couple turnovers and put a lot of pressure on Manning. That combo will be enough for the Chiefs to follow their balanced attack script with both sides of the ball contributing solid play. PICK: CHIEFS

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Mike Glennon will be able to provide a spark for the Buccaneers this week and the Cardinals are not exactly a juggernaut. Not a lot of points in this one as a defensive struggles with a couple turnovers for each squad set up a winning drive late in the 4th. The Cardinals are the ones with the ball and pull off the nailbiting win on the road to continue Tampa Bay's woes. PICK: CARDINALS

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Both teams have seen some better than expected play from their quarterbacks while each has a stout defense. Thus, it will be crucial for each quarterback to protect the ball. QB Jake Looker has been able to stretch the field and the Jets' corners will be tested led CB Antonio Cromartie who has stepped up in Darrelle Revis' absence. QB Geno Smith makes a couple big mistakes that allow Tennessee to pull ahead in the second half and win a reasonably close one. PICK: TITANS

Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders: The Redskins are looking to get their first win as the offense continues to look a little better each week. It won't be an easy one though this week as Oakland's new look defense as played grittier than expected but there is uncertainty behind center as QB Terrell Pryor likely won't play. Without that dynamic play of Pryor, the Redskins should be able to score enough and hold off Oakland despite poor defensive play by Washington this year. PICK: REDSKINS

Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers: With the rest of the NFC East struggling, Dallas can put an early stranglehold on the division with a win. QB Phillip Rivers has been looking a lot like the player that got his team to a couple championship games. With that in mind, this one could be a duel between him and QB Tony Romo as they each have solid tight ends and a couple wide outs who can move the ball. A late turnover by Rivers will allow Romo the opening to get a game sealing drive together that allows Dallas to escape a 40-35 type of game. PICK: COWBOYS

Green Bay and Carolina have the week off and would love to use this week to prepare enough to even their records next week at 2-2 when they return. The Dolphins have a great chance to show what type of team they might be this year with a big road test. At least one unbeaten team will fall, how will the rest fair? How many scores can QB Peyton Manning put up this week? Can the Giants, Redskins, and Steelers right their ships? Three others hope to get their first win as well. There are some potential shootouts and lots of offense as top teams continue to work to separate themselves early in the season.

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