Audacity of Covin

Congressional redistricting fallout: 10 incumbent against incumbent contests to watch

2011-10-26T21:59:00.003-04:00

Every ten years, a census is taken. It generally produces one of two results with a third neutral option. Most talked about and monitored are the states that witness a growth in population and hence more membership in the U.S. House of Representatives and the states that witness a shrinking in population and hence less membership in the U.S. House. As is the case in most states, populations might shift; but overall totals do not warrant gaining or losing any seats. Additionally, as part of those scenarios; when a state loses membership it forces two incumbents to likely oppose one another in either a primary or general election.

With all that said, the Washington Post's "Fix" has provided ten races to watch in 2012 that involve two incumbents against one another.

To the top ten:

10) Steve Austria (R-Ohio) vs. Mike Turner (R-Ohio): This may be the biggest jump ball of all, but it’s also a matchup of back-benchers and lawmakers who most in Washington don’t really know. Republicans reshuffled the Ohio map to shore up Columbus-area Republicans who had increasingly difficult districts. The solution was to create a new Democratic-leaning district, but in the process, Austria and Turner had to be paired. The two men both currently represent a good chunk of the new district, and they have about the same amount of cash- -on-hand, with just more than $400,000 each.

9) Janice Hahn (D-Calif.) vs. Laura Richardson (D-Calif.): Washington Democrats wouldn’t be terribly sad to see either of these incumbents lose, as Hahn under-performed in a recent special election and Richardson’s personal troubles have mounted. The good news for the establishment is that they could both lose. State Assemblyman Isadore Hall (D) outraised both in the third quarter and already has more cash-on-hand. But if Hall and Richardson split the black vote, that could open things up for Hahn, who is white. The district is 28 percent black and 49 percent Hispanic.

8) Gary Miller (R-Calif.) vs. Ed Royce (R-Calif.): These two were the odd men out as four Republican-leaning Orange County districts were reduced to three. Miller has framed the race as between two ideologically similar candidates, but suggests he is the doer in Washington. Royce, meanwhile, is closer to House Republican leaders and has a huge early advantage in fundraising, with $3 million in his war chest compared to Miller’s $1 million. Miller doesn’t look like a guy gearing up for a tough campaign, either, as he raised just $58,000 in the third quarter.

7) Don Manzullo (R-Ill.) vs. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.): The freshman Kinzinger just decided that he would challenge ten-term lawmaker Manzullo, but the Democratic-drawn map didn’t give him much choice. While Manzullo has represented this territory for years and has a staunch conservative record, Kinzinger has quickly developed a national profile and has more money than Manzullo. The freshman raised $788,025 this cycle and has $567,012 cash-on-hand to Manzullo’s $433,588 raised and $483,994 on hand. Manzullo also hasn’t faced a tough race in over a decade, while Kinzinger unseated an incumbent Democrat last fall.

6) Jeff Landry (R-La.) vs. Charles Boustany (R-La.): The freshman Landry is trying to frame his looming primary fight as the tea party (him) versus the establishment (Boustany). The centerpiece of that argument is that Landry voted against increasing the debt ceiling in August while Boustany, who is close to House Republican leaders, supported the legislation. Boustany also supported the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) bailout, which has been a liability in GOP primaries. But Boustany currently represents much more of the new 3rd district and has a longer history with the constituents. Landry slightly outraised Boustany in the third quarter, but Boustany ended September with $1.1 million on hand, as compared to $402,000 for Landry.

5) Gary Peters (D-Mich.) vs. Hansen Clarke (D-Mich.): Peters comes into the fight for Michigan’s most oddly-shaped new district with one distinct advantage: cash. He has twice as much money as Clarke ($839,000 to $423,000) and is a very strong fundraiser. Neither lawmaker is an old hand, as the map pits two rising stars against each other. But Peters can argue that he helped save the auto industry by taking on House Republicans. Peters’s biggest obstacle is the district’s slight black majority — Clarke is the son of an African-American mother and Bangladeshi father, and Peters is white — and that racial gap will be exaggerated in a Democratic primary. But both lawmakers have multiracial constituencies already, and another black politican — Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence (D) — is planning to run and split the black vote.

4) Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa) vs Tom Latham (R-Iowa): Boswell has survived a series of heated races in recent years, but this matchup against Latham in the new 3rd district will be his toughest to date. Latham raised more than twice what Boswell brought in over the past three months and ended September with $1.7 million in the bank, as compared to $376,000 for Boswell. Latham moved from the new 4th district into this seat, and the district is about two-thirds Boswell territory. But the numbers suggest a jump ball.

3) Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) vs. Randy Hultgren (R-Ill.): This matchup of freshmen could be one of the most entertaining. Walsh announced a month ago that he would run against Hultgren rather than in the Democratic-leaning 8th district. Walsh, who has been arguably the most outspoken tea-party freshman and a surprise winner last year, has already signaled that he will run against all of Washington — including his party leaders — and play up his vote against the debt- ceiling deal. But he’s got problems; namely, that his ex-wife says he owes $100,000 in back child support. Hultgren, meanwhile, has compared Walsh’s leadership style to none other than convicted former governor Rod Blagojevich (D).

2) Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) vs. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio): The map here favors Kucinich; two-thirds of the new 9th district is in the Cleveland media market. But Toledo-based Kaptur is very popular with constituents, and she can argue that she never considered leaving the state, as Kucinich did when he flirted with running in Washington state. She’s also dominating Kucinich in cash right now -- $604,916 to $90,253 -- although Kucinich’s national support base should be able to easily close that gap. Even so, the former presidential candidate doesn’t have this one in the bag.

1) Howard Berman (D-Calif.) vs. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.): This could well be the single most expensive House race in the country before it’s all said and done. While state and national party leaders have tried to talk each of the men out of the clash, both are girding for battle. In the last three months alone, Berman, a veteran Democratic lawmaker, raised an eye-popping $819,000 — the third-highest total in the House — and ended the period with $2.25 million in the bank. Sherman collected just $174,000 in the third quarter but had $3.7 million on hand. This race, which will be fought in the incredibly expensive Los Angeles media market, is going to be expensive, nasty and long.

College Football Week 2 Power Rankings

2011-09-05T23:54:00.003-04:00

Due to the top 5 matchup to kickoff the year, one team was guaranteed to drop after just one week. That unfortunately for them was Oregon; the runner-up in last year's national title game. Besides that other top teams were able to avoid potential early stumbles as most romped their way to victory. Auburn, the team that beat Oregon, probably looked possibly the weakest out of those in top 20 (besides Notre Dame of course). Not surprisingly, the top two teams; Oklahoma and Alabama; had little trouble maintaining their rankings heading into Week 2.

Now for the Week 2 rankings (with previous week):

1)(1) Oklahoma (BYE)
2)(2) Alabama (at Penn State)
3)(5) LSU (vs Northwestern State)
4)(4) Stanford (at Duke)
5)(6) Boise State (BYE)
6)(7) South Carolina (at Georgia)
7)(8) Florida State (vs Charleston Southern)
8)(9) Oklahoma State (vs Arizona)
9)(14) Wisconsin (vs Oregon State)
10)(3) Oregon (vs Nevada)
11)(10) Texas A&M (BYE)
12)(11) Nebraska(vs Fresno State)
13)(12) Virginia Tech (at East Carolina)
14)(13) Ohio State (vs Toledo)
15)(15) Arkansas (vs New Mexico)
16)(20) Mississippi State (at #21 Auburn)
17)(16) Michigan State (vs Florida Atlantic)
18)(21) Florida (vs UAB)
19)(NR) Baylor(BYE)
20)(23) Arizona State (vs #22 Missouri)
21)(19) Auburn (vs #16 Mississippi State)
22)(24) Missouri (at #20 Arizona State)
23)(NR) West Virginia (vs Norfolk State)
24)(22) USC (vs Utah)
25)(NR) Texas (vs Brigham Young)

Dropped from the rankings: #17 TCU, #18 Notre Dame, #25 Georgia

Next best 5:

1) Penn State (vs #2 Alabama)
2) Georgia (vs #6 South Carolina)
3) TCU (at Air Force)
4) USF (vs Ball State)
5) Iowa (at Iowa State)

College Football Week 1 Preview

2011-08-30T23:10:00.008-04:00

The long wait is over! Roughly 8 months after QB Cam Newton led Auburn to the national title over Oregon, a season begins with questions surrounding those two teams and several others. Multiple top teams like Oklahoma and Alabama begin a quest to a national title with warm ups. Notable programs Ohio State, Michigan, and Florida begin with similarly easy games with new head coaches at the helm. And, there is some speculation that Notre Dame might be able to rebound this year after a series of tough years since QB Brady Quinn left South Bend. Add to that troubles at LSU and Miami (FL) as well as some early make or break games around the country.

The first week of the season will be headlined by Oregon against LSU in Dallas, TX and Boise State against Georgia in Atlanta, GA. Boise State, like last year, has a favorable schedule to run the table after this one if they win. Last year was another fairly successful year with picks and I begin a quest for a similar season of picks.

Like in the past, besides the top 5 games of the week; I will run down a few other interesting ones featuring top 25 teams as well as unranked matchups.

The intriguing other games of Week 1:

Thursday, September 1
North Carolina Central at Rutgers: This one will not jump off the page unless you, like me, went to Rutgers...or happen to be from North Carolina Central. Rutgers continue the quest to obtain that elusive Big East title and BCS bowl birth under head coach Greg Schiano. That prospect looks very challenging this year, but if they take one game at a time; you never know considering the Big East has had a revolving door of conference champions.

Saturday, September 3
Akron at No. 18 Ohio State: The post Jim Tressel-Terrelle Pryor era begins and it should start very good. How well they might do this year could be dictated by how sharp they are in this one.

Utah State at No. 23 Auburn: Auburn begins its defense of their national title without Newton and DT Nick Fairley. The two led the team is many ways last year. Utah State is not a push over game and if Auburn is not sharp they could flirt with being upset.

Kent State at No. 2 Alabama: Alabama is the early favorite for many to win the SEC and that usually means a birth in the national title game. HB Trent Richardson will now be the featured back with Heisman Winner, HB Mark Ingram, off to the New Orleans Saints.

Appalachian State at No. 13 Virginia Tech: Last year they started 0-2, which included a tough loss to Boise State at Fed Ex Field in Landover, MD. They would win the rest of their games after that. The Hokies could be a team outside the top 10 that makes a run and situates itself on the bubble of the national title game. Oh, and for those who forgot Appalachian State went to the Big House in Ann Arbor, MI and upset Michigan. Blacksburg is a similar tough environment, but this time around; an upset seems even less likely.

USF at No. 16 Notre Dame: South Florida head coach Skip Holtz returns to Notre Dame, where he played and his dad, Lou, coached. Notre Dame has some higher expectations this year and needs to avoid an upset to start their season. There is decent talent on the Notre Dame offense, but the defense must also play well and keep USF QB B.J. Daniels in check. He has speed and can be accurate when needed. The light will shine again in South Bend. The Irish will disappoint many with a loss and could set up another tough year.

San Jose State at No. 7 Stanford: Stanford only has Oregon standing in front of them on their path to a Pac-12 title in its inaugural season. That could mean Stanford and not Oregon goes to the national title game this year. QB Andrew Luck can further improve his stock this year and expect lots of points in this one by him.

East Carolina vs. No. 12 South Carolina (in Charlotte, NC): South Carolina had one of its best seasons ever as it fell just short of winning the SEC championship and likely garnering strong consideration for a national title birth. The expectations are high and they need to avoid trap games like this one before they even start their conference schedule with even more twists and turns.

Tulsa at No. 1 Oklahoma: Oklahoma starts the year as the top team in the nation. They run the table, they are guaranteed a shot at the national title. That has not happened for a No.1 since the USC glory days of the 2000s. Games ahead will be more challenging than this one, but getting the dust off now will go a long way.

Rice at Texas: Texas had its first lose season in a long time and head coach Mack Brown will have this squad fired up to start against Rice, but how they operate without Will Muschamp as their defensive coordinator could be telling if they do struggle again.

Now onto the top 5 of Week 1:

Top 5:

5) Indiana vs. Ball State (in Indianapolis, IN): A showcase type of game on neutral ground. Both teams want to start strong and ties and back and forth battles could be part of this one. In the end, Ball State scores late in the game to seal the win. PREDICTION: BALL STATE

4) Miami (FL) at Maryland (Monday, September 5th): The lights of Monday Night Football ascend on college football again for Labor Day. And it features an ACC team once again as two potential sleepers to Florida State's path to the conference crown set up for a key game. Miami (FL) has had to deal with a major off the field issue for the better part of the last month and will not have a few starters for this one. A new era begins in Maryland and they finished so so last year with some promise. They look to improve on that, but there are still a few crafty guys on Miami (FL) to potentially edge this one out; however the missing guys will hurt them in the end. Close one! PREDICTION: MARYLAND

3) No. 14 TCU at Baylor (Friday, September 2nd): I am not expecting a defensive struggle as Baylor's Robert Griffin III has the potential to put on a showcase on the national stage while TCU is breaking in a new quarterback in Casey Pachall with Andy Dalton's departure to the Cincinnati Bengals. TCU dominated this game last year, but TCU's defense will have much more pressure on it especially as Griffin matures as a big player. TCU ran the table last year, but potentially could start 2011 0-1. However, they will do enough to keep Griffin's damage to a decent minimum as they make a late defensive play that seals the game. PREDICTION: TCU

2) No. 5 Boise State vs. No. 19 Georgia (in Atlanta, GA): Boise State's quest for more respect takes them to Atlanta, GA and a game against No. 19 Georgia coming off a losing season. The Bulldogs will have that on their mind on top of the pressure of the SEC schedule ahead. Boise State downed Virginia Tech last year and fell a couple kicks short of an undefeated season and potential title game birth. Their schedule looks good again after Georgia. Georgia has something to prove as well as they have gone from top tier program in the SEC to bottom half embarrassment. Boise State QB Kellen Moore will be the difference maker in this one. He plays big in big games and barring an unusual performance by him; they should find a way to do it again. PREDICTION: BOISE STATE

1) No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU (in Arlington, TX): Not often do you start a season with a top 5 battle. It usually takes a season of games to get to that point (not counting the SEC sometimes). Speed, speed, speed is the thing to watch in this one. They both process a lot of it. LSU's recent off the field issues has put a big warning sign up for them as they turn to QB Jarrett Lee to help guide them to a big premier victory. The turnover battle could be of extra importance as in games like this; turnovers are much harder to overcome against superior talent. A trick play is also not out of the question with both of these head coaches. Lead changes will also be the norm here. LSU scores late, but leaves enough time for LaMichael James to put an early stamp on his run for a Heisman with a final score. PREDICTION: OREGON

College Football Week 1 Power Rankings

2011-08-28T21:15:00.002-04:00

The excitement that was Oregon against Auburn for the national title is about to finally be put in the rearview mirror. QB Cam Newton of Auburn is now in Carolina with the Panthers and they will need to rebuild after his departure. Oregon on the other hand loses poised to potentially return to the title game and finish what they started. However, a few former BCS champions look prepared to add another trophy to their case.

A great deal of the college football talk leading up to the opening kickoff has been about the Oklahoma Sooners. They field talent around their offense led by QB Landry Jones and have a schedule that could favor their chances of playing for the title. However, Alabama looks like they could reign again in the SEC now that Auburn will take a step back. The Tide will need to keep one eye on LSU and an another on South Carolina along the way. And, one cannot forget about Boise State, who could find themselves in the title hunt again.

Now to get to the Week 1 rankings as another season prepares to start

Top 25

1) Oklahoma (vs Tulsa)
2) Alabama (vs Kent State)
3) Oregon (vs #5 LSU)
4) Stanford (vs San Jose State)
5) LSU (vs #3 Oregon)
6) Boise State (at #25 Georgia)
7) South Carolina (vs East Carolina)
8) Florida State (vs Louisiana-Monroe)
9) Oklahoma State (vs Louisiana-Lafayette)
10) Texas A&M (vs SMU)
11) Nebraska (vs Tennessee Chattanooga)
12) Virginia Tech (vs Appalachian State)
13) Ohio State (vs Akron)
14) Wisconsin (vs UNLV)
15) Arkansas (vs Missouri State)
16) Michigan State (vs Youngstown State)
17) TCU (at Baylor)
18) Notre Dame (vs South Florida)
19) Auburn (vs Utah State)
20) Mississippi State (at Memphis)
21) Florida (vs Florida Atlantic)
22) USC (vs Minnesota)
23) Arizona State (vs UC Davis)
24) Missouri (vs Miami (OH))
25) Georgia (vs #6 Boise State)

Next best 5:

1) West Virginia (vs Marshall)
2) Texas (vs Rice)
3) North Carolina State (vs Liberty)
4) Penn State (vs Indiana State)
5) Iowa (vs Tennessee Tech)

Foreign Policy v. the Economy: Where should Obama focus in 2012

2011-04-04T22:54:00.004-04:00

Each electoral cycle, candidates must figure out where to position their priorities when it comes to the issues. Sometimes it is based on the candidate's opponent(s). Sometimes it is based largely on their strengths and accomplishments. As President Obama stands roughly 18 months away from the 2012 presidential election, he must decide where to focus his campaign on. He has had accomplishments and setbacks during his two plus years in office. The New York Times' Michael Shear posed the question of where President Obama should focus more on in 2012: foreign policy or the top issue facing the country, the economy. Whomever emerges as the Republican challenger to Obama and the White House could influence where Obama puts effort and focus on. Nonetheless, despite the candidate, there are arguments that could be made for both.

As Shear presents, the case for putting the primary focus on foreign policy is:

1) The lack of foreign policy credentials on the Republican side is a historical aberration for a party that has traditionally gravitated toward candidates whose primary credentials relate to America’s role abroad. (The two with some experience this year: Jon Huntsman, the former governor of Utah and the current China ambassador; and John Bolton, the former United Nations ambassador. Neither has said for sure he is running.)

2) While the economy is improving slowly, many economists predict that unemployment is likely to still be above 8 percent by the time Election Day rolls around. Asking to be returned to the White House because things could have been worse is a tough message to sell, as the 2010 midterm elections showed.

3) Arguments over the debt and the deficit look deadlocked and politically dangerous, at least in the near term. Already, Democrats are split as to whether voters will reward or punish politicians for confronting Social Security and Medicare directly. Meanwhile, most Republicans have refused to even entertain the idea of raising revenue, otherwise known as taxes. Mr. Obama is likely to be caught in the middle of that issue.

4) Shifting the conversation toward foreign policy heightens the contrast between a candidate with presidential stature and his out-of-office rivals. The images of Mr. Obama in the Situation Room or standing shoulder-to-shoulder with world leaders make the Republicans who are campaigning in Iowa look small.

5) Mr. Obama generally earns higher marks for his adventures overseas than he does for his domestic accomplishments. He has made good on his promise to begin a significant troop withdrawal in Iraq. He has negotiated a nuclear arms treaty with Russia. However, the ongoing war in Afghanistan, where the president has increased American involvement, has become increasingly unpopular.

6) A decade after the September 11 attacks, there have been no successful terrorist attacks on his watch — a statistic that was often cited by President Bush as evidence that his administration was winning the war on terror.

Just as those make a case for focusing primarily on foreign policy, the case for putting the primary focus on the economy is:

1) The truth about wars and disasters is that they command attention at first, and later fade as the public turns back to their daily concerns. It’s already happening with the crisis in Japan. And the conflict in the Middle East and North Africa will seem more distant if forces from the United States really do hand over operations to European and regional forces.

2) Even when they are in the news, foreign events are unpredictable and difficult to manage. Mr. Obama found that out when he pledged on his first day in office to close the detention facility at Guantánamo Bay. It remains open today chiefly because the administration has had difficulty finding allies willing to take the detainees into their countries. Basing a campaign on the whims of foreign interactions would be dangerous at best.

3) The economy continues to struggle, but the news has been steadily, if slowly, improving on the economic front, with more than a year of modest job growth each month and economic measures like the markets, consumer spending and income growth have been moving in a positive direction. That improvement has not yet translated into a lot of optimism among the public. In an Associated Press-GfK poll released on Wednesday, Americans said they were growing more pessimistic — not less — about the future. But the same survey suggested that Mr. Obama was not the target of the pessimism and that his approval ratings over all and on the economy were holding steady, at 50 percent and 47 percent respectively. (Other recent polls, however, have shown his approval on the economy lower.)

4) Even if the president wanted to talk about foreign affairs, the political conversation in Washington is being driven by lawmakers on Capitol Hill, who are gearing up for a yearlong battle over the nation’s debt and deficits. Mr. Obama is all but certain to be drawn into that conversation.

5) The president’s first year in office largely set the tone for his administration, whether he liked it or not. The stimulus program, the bank and auto bailouts, the fights overfinancial regulation legislation and health care provided Mr. Obama with a record that he now has to sell to the public.

6) The lack of foreign policy credentials for most of the likely 2012 Republican candidates offers an opportunity for Mr. Obama. But it also means that the men and women who are running for the Republican nomination will focus on what they know: domestic issues like immigration, gas prices, job losses, taxes, government spending and the debt. Candidates like Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota, or Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, will all seize on the economy’s weaknesses to call for an end to Mr. Obama’s administration. His challenge will be to construct a narrative that pushes back against their charges.

7) The 2010 midterm campaign offered Mr. Obama a clear example of what can happen when Democrats don’t successfully control that narrative. Republicans captured the House and made big gains in the Senate almost exclusively by tapping into anger about the economy, health care and jobs.

Much of what candidates do during a campaign depend heavily on whomever one's challenger(s) is, but also what issues grip the public's attention and concern. Both foreign policy and the economy will be major parts of presidential debates and the campaign cycle. How Obama decides to juggle them and other issues could impact how the election might unfold.

Statuary Hall Battle: Hanson v. Tubman

2011-03-17T00:15:00.004-04:00

During the tail end of the Civil War, a commission was created to liven up the U.S. Capitol. The decision was made to contact all the states and allow them to donate two statues to the U.S. Capitol building. The statues were to be dignities and important individuals in a given state's history. By the early 1900s, the building began to start filling up the old U.S. House chambers with statues donated.

One of the states that sent their pair at the dawn of the new century was Maryland. For their choices, they sent two important founders not only for their state, but the country as a whole. Charles Carroll, the last living signer of the Declaration of Independence, and John Hanson, an early President of the Continental Congress. Over a hundred years after Hanson's statue was placed in the U.S. Capitol; there is a stir brewing to replace him with a much more notable Marylander. That individual is Harriet Tubman.

Since 2000, three states have decided to switch one of their statues for a more notable member of their state. Now, Maryland could be teetering with becoming the four state to switch a statue up.

The Washington Post gave a nice summary and focus this week:

Harriet Tubman has history on her side. But does she have the votes?

The famous abolitionist is locked in a historical steel-cage match with the increasingly forgotten patriot John Hanson - one that's playing out not far from John Hanson Highway in Annapolis, where Maryland lawmakers, historians and activists have been debating whether to refresh the state's history by dumping Hanson in favor of Tubman.

At stake: one of 100 marble pedestals in the exclusive if not always accessible National Statuary Hall Collection at the U.S. Capitol.

For the past 108 years, Hanson, a leading advocate of American independence, has been honored at the Capitol with a larger-than-life statue that the public almost never sees. Wearing a tricorn hat, waistcoat, breeches and other colonial-era clothes, the old Southern Marylander's 7-foot, 3-inch bronze likeness peers down at lawmakers and legislative aides rushing through a restricted-access corridor outside the Senate chamber.

Hanson was a member of the Continental Congress and in 1781 was elected as "President of the United States in Congress Assembled." But as time marches on, he slips deeper into the margins of history, his legacy imperiled even in his home state.

"I don't even know who he is," Leslie Rowland admitted from College Park, where she teaches mid-19th-century American history at the University of Maryland.

Now Hanson could be in jeopardy of fading even further into obscurity, with Maryland lawmakers considering a proposal to replace the former slave owner with a hero of the Underground Railroad.

Tubman, who was born into slavery in Dorchester County, on Maryland's Eastern Shore, would be the first African American and the 10th woman in the 100-member marble-and-bronze club that Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.) has called a "diversity embarrassment."

"The collection reflects basically a white male view of history," said Linda Mahoney, president of the Maryland chapter of the National Organization for Women, which has lobbied for the Tubman statue. "It's time to update Maryland's representatives in National Statuary Hall and take a different look at history. . . . Harriet Tubman is the ultimate icon, especially for women and African Americans. She's an obvious selection."

The bill, which was sponsored in the House by the chair of the women's caucus and in the Senate by the chair of the black caucus, could face its first test in a Senate committee vote Tuesday.

Tubman has some prominent backers, including Gov. Martin O'Malley (D). But several lawmakers, including one of Hanson's own descendants and Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller (D-Calvert), have argued vigorously against ousting the largely forgotten patriot, even if it's to make way for a widely admired name-brand historical figure such as Tubman.

Racial and gender divide

The debate is fraught with potential land mines on race and gender. The key players for the most part have spoken cautiously about the bill, which has considerable support among women and African Americans, Mahoney said.

Will it be enough? Maybe not.

"There's a certain part of the legislature that's less forward-looking and progressive - good old boys who've been in power for so long," Mahoney said.

Upon hearing of the comment, Miller was furious. "To talk about 'good old boys' is just nonsense," he said. "This is not Mississippi. This is Maryland."

"Unfortunately, it seems like a line is being drawn in the sand, and I don't like that," said Sen. Thomas "Mac" Middleton, a direct descendant of Hanson's brother and a Democrat from Charles County, where John Hanson was born nearly 300 years ago, in what was then the British Province of Maryland.

The proposal is something like a historical Sophie's Choice to Middleton. "This is really causing me a lot of heartburn," he said. "In no way do I want to diminish Harriet Tubman. I'm very supportive of efforts to memorialize her."

"But removing the statue of John Hanson takes away from the significance of who he was. He's a very important part of our history - the first president of what became the United States."

Most historians say that Hanson's role as President of the United States in Congress Assembled was more akin to House Speaker than POTUS. Still, Middleton likens the proposal to removing George Washington from the collection.

Maryland legislators sent Hanson's likeness to the Capitol in 1903, along with a statue of Charles Carroll, the only Catholic signer of the Declaration of Independence.

Virginia sent Washington and Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee. The District is still lobbying for inclusion somewhere in the Capitol's lineup of statues, which includes some, such as the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.'s in the Rotunda, that aren't part of the Statuary Hall collection.

The collection began in 1864 through an act of Congress, which invited the states "to provide and furnish statues, in marble or bronze, not exceeding two in number for each state, of deceased persons who have been citizens thereof, and illustrious for their historic renown or for distinguished civic or military service."

In 2000, Congress empowered the states to swap out their earlier selections and reshape the statuary view of American history. Kansas replaced George Washington Glick (who?) with Dwight D. Eisenhower in 2003. In 2009, Alabama sent Helen Keller in place of Jabez Lamar Monroe Curry (who?) while California sent Ronald Reagan to replace Thomas Starr King (who?), whose descendants and supporters were aggrieved.

Moving history's spotlight is a touchy process; somebody always feels slighted.

Miller, who presides over the state Senate while standing next to a smaller version of the same Hanson statue that sits at the U.S. Capitol, acknowledged the need to memorialize Tubman in Washington. "She is a hero who belongs to the whole United States, not just the state of Maryland," he said.

But the proposal to get Tubman into Statuary Hall at Hanson's expense is "unacceptable," he said. "John Hanson was a great patriot and an important part of Maryland's history and of America's history. He needs to be honored, not removed."

When Miller's predecessors in the statehouse took up the business of considering Maryland's candidates for Statuary Hall more than a century ago, Hanson wasn't even on the short list, according to an 1897 story in the Baltimore Sun. The nine in contention were: Charles Carroll; Roger B. Taney; Francis Scott Key; Thomas Johnson; John Eager Howard; Cecilus Calvert; General William Pinkney; William Smallwood; and Stephen Decatur.

Lawmakers settled on the selection of Carroll, who lived longer than any other signer of the Declaration of Independence. They they began to whittle the candidates for the second slot, focusing primarily on Johnson, the state's first governor and a former Supreme Court justice, and Howard, a former governor and U.S. senator.

But Hanson's dark-horse candidacy, promoted by the Maryland Historical Society, began to take shape, and eventually he won out - though he was nearly replaced in a committee vote by Key, who wrote "The Star-Spangled Banner."

"He was not exactly an overwhelming choice in the first place," said Kenneth Cohen, a St. Mary's College assistant history professor. Hanson was an important historical figure and worthy of inclusion in the collection, Cohen said - but the homogeneous composition of Maryland's statuary delegation could stand to change.

"I don't want to use the word redundant, but we have two Revolutionary political leaders representing Maryland, and you wonder if there were great Marylanders who did anything apart from the Revolution," Cohen said. "Certainly there were. That should bear on their decision, which will be significant because it reflects how the representatives - and through them, the people of Maryland - remember their past. It matters because it reflects our public memory."

Time will tell if Tubman or Hanson supporters will win out. Hanson despite lacking the name recognition of Tubman played a huge role not only in Maryland's early history, but the nation's. Something that should be weighed highly next to Tubman's role with the Underground Railroad and her contributions throughout her life.

Lincoln Addresses the Nation

2011-03-03T22:28:00.005-05:00

150 years ago, President-elect Abraham Lincoln had arrived in Washington, DC and was prepared to address the nation as he assumed the mantle of the presidency with a looming Civil War on the horizon. Times have probably never been tougher up to then and since. America was never and has not been as divided as it was in the early part of 1861.

The New York Times has taken a closer look at the road to the Civil War and that includes Lincoln's inauguration. They gathered opinions here: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/03/lincoln-addresses-the-nation/?ref=opinion&nl=opinion&emc=tya1

Furthermore, here is Lincoln's speech:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/04/opinion/20110304_Lincoln_Inaugural_Speech.html

Lincoln spent that March day preparing himself and the nation for the road ahead.

Mayor Bloomberg's Common Sense Perspective on Union Debate

2011-02-28T21:03:00.003-05:00

With last fall's midterm elections came a new batch of Republican governors. One, Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, has assumed a national spotlight this month as he has literally attacked unions' rights. Most would agree that unions' benefits need to be adjusted in order for states to function during a recession in order to budget for other necessities while still trying to boost job creation. Some on the far left and others on the far right are at times poisoned the debate with a lack of common sense perspective. One side is not willing to budge on anything and the other side wants to strip unions of all of their rights and "privileges" that come along with someone who serves the public. With all that in mind, an opinion article by New York City Michael Bloomberg caught my eye. He is an Independent and with that comes a perspective that often is balanced. In the following article, he outlines the tough decisions and the best balanced way to approach them. Governors in Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, and even right here in my home state of New Jersey can learn from what Mayor Bloomberg proposes. It creates a path that all can be open and willing to discuss that solves the problems that face states and the country.

Here is Mayor Bloomberg's article:

IN Ohio, Wisconsin and other states facing budget deficits, some elected officials assert that closing those gaps requires achieving labor savings and weakening labor unions. They are half-right.

Across the country, taxpayers are providing pensions, benefits and job security protections for public workers that almost no one in the private sector enjoys. Taxpayers simply cannot afford to continue paying these costs, which are growing at rates far outpacing inflation. Yes, public sector workers need a secure retirement. And yes, taxpayers need top-quality police officers, teachers and firefighters. It’s the job of government to balance those competing needs. But for a variety of reasons, the scale has been increasingly tipping away from taxpayers.

Correcting this imbalance is not easy, but in a growing number of states, budget deficits are being used to justify efforts to scale back not only labor costs, but labor rights. The impulse is understandable; public sector unions all too often stand in the way of reform. But unions also play a vital role in protecting against abuses in the workplace, and in my experience they are integral to training, deploying and managing a professional work force.

Organizing around a common interest is a fundamental part of democracy. We should no more try to take away the right of individuals to collectively bargain than we should try to take away the right to a secret ballot. Instead, we should work to modernize government’s relationship with unions — and union leaders should be farsighted enough to cooperate, because the only way to protect the long-term integrity of employee benefits is to ensure the public’s long-term ability to fund them. In Wisconsin, efforts to rein in spending on labor contracts have included proposals to strip unions of their right to collectively bargain for pensions and health care benefits.

Yet the problem is not unions expressing those rights; it is governments failing to adapt to the times and act in a fiscally responsible manner. If contract terms or labor laws from years past no longer make sense, we the people should renegotiate — or legislate — changes. Benefits agreed to 35 years ago that now are unaffordable should be reduced. Similarly, work rules that made sense 70 years ago but are now antiquated should be changed.

In New York City, we share the same goal as cities and states across the nation — less spending and better services. We, too, are seeking to legislate changes to reduce pension and benefit costs and modernize our labor laws. But in some cases, we believe expanding collective bargaining would be more beneficial than trying to eliminate it.

For example, in New York, state government — not the city — has the authority to set pension benefits for city workers, but city taxpayers get stuck with the bill. The mayor cannot directly discuss pension benefits as part of contract negotiations with unions, even though pension benefits could be as much as 80 percent of an employee’s overall compensation. In addition, members of the State Legislature pass pension “sweeteners” for municipal unions that help attract support for their re-election campaigns.

These are problems that mayors around the country also face. In New York City, taxpayers will be forced to pay $8.3 billion in pension costs this year, up from $1.5 billion 10 years ago. Our proposal to the state is simple: legislate lower costs this year and, going forward, give us the authority to negotiate fair pension savings ourselves.

Pensions are not the only area where we would like to expand our collective bargaining authority in order to modernize government. New York is one of only a dozen or so states with a law requiring layoffs of teachers based strictly on seniority — a policy that’s known as “last in, first out.” In New York City, we are preparing to lay off workers across city agencies, including 4,500 teachers. And the only thing worse than laying off teachers would be laying off the wrong teachers — some of our very best.

That’s why we are asking the state to give us the legal authority to collectively bargain a layoff policy with the teachers’ union — and in the meantime, to conduct layoffs based on common-sense factors like eliminating teachers who have been rated unsatisfactory, found guilty of criminal charges or failed to meet professional certification requirements.

To the extent that collective bargaining agreements or state laws are no longer serving the public, we should change them. That is what democracy is all about — and that is our responsibility. The job of labor leaders is to get the best deal for their members. The job of elected officials is to get the best deal for all citizens.

Rather than declare war on unions, we should demand a new deal with them — one that reflects today’s economic realities and workplace conditions, not those of a century ago. If we fail to do that, the fault is not in our unions, or in our stars, but in ourselves.

As the redistricting maps turn; next stop Virginia

2011-02-21T21:33:00.004-05:00

Texas, Indiana, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Ohio, California, Nevada, and....now Virginia. The first eight have been looked at, analyzed, discussed, and focused on. Republicans can see gains in some while Democrats can see the same in others. While there could be limited movement overall due the sticky circumstances that involve redistricting. Now, Virginia and its map find itself under the spotlight. Virginia was a big win for Democrats in 2008 then a huge loss in 2010. Redistricting in 2012 could impact if the elections end up more like the latter or the former.

What might occur in Virginia in the coming year:

Virginia officially kicked off its redistricting process at the end of January/start of February when the Census made it one of the first states to receive detailed population data.

The Commonwealth and three other states got their data first, since they hold state legislative sessions in 2011 and need to get their maps drawn fast.

But Virginia Republicans may be in no rush -- especially when delaying the process could reap some real benefits.

Control over the redistricting process is currently split in the Commonwealth -- a set of circumstances that often leads to compromise between the two parties. But some Republicans say there may be a way for the GOP to gain full control of the process, and all it requires is a little time and a successful 2011 election.

Virginia's state Senate is still controlled by Democrats and is the one thing standing in the way of total Republican control of redistricting.

With the governorship and the state House firmly under GOP control, Republicans will be gunning for the state Senate in November's election, when they will have a good shot at taking three of the Democrats' 22 seats and grabbing a majority.

The question is whether Republicans try to push off the redistricting process until after the election.

They can definitely wait to draw the congressional map, since no federal elections will be held in 2011. Whether they can wait to draw the state legislative districts is an open question.

The Virginia constitution appears to require the state to draw new state legislative districts in the odd-numbered year, and a state guide to redistricting notes that the law "has been understood to require redistricting in advance of the November 2011 elections for districts electing representatives at that time."

But the guide goes on to note that such a requirement provides a very tight timetable for the state legislature to get things done.

And therein may lie Republicans' opportunity.

With the two chambers controlled by different parties, it's going to be difficult for lawmakers to reach an accord on the new district lines. Virginia is also a Voting Rights Act state, which means its plans must be pre-cleared by the Justice Department. The process, in short, could take a while under any circumstances.

If the legislature can't come up with a plan in 2011, the matter would have to go to court.

Former Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a veteran of redistricting who oversaw the GOP's national efforts during the 2002 election cycle as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, noted that the courts are generally reticent to infringe on the state legislature's right to draw the map.

What's more, the courts may not even act until the end of the year, since the law doesn't specifically say anything about doing redistricting before the November elections.

"Even if the legislature's late, the courts I think would be reluctant to impose their plan over a legislative plan," Davis said.

Democrats disagree.

"The majority of the precedent you'll see is the courts stepping in when the legislative process starts bumping up against a hard deadline," said one Democrat, speaking anonymously in order to discuss strategy.

So far, reports indicate that Republicans haven't shown much interest in working with the Democrats on redistricting, which could lead to a (convenient) slowdown.

Democrats are dubious about the possibility and say the law requires that state legislative redistricting be done in 2011 -- period.

But even if they do have to redraw their state legislative districts in 2011, there is nothing in the law that says they can't wait to draw congressional districts. Even Democrats acknowledge that Republicans could put that off until 2012 and still be in the clear.

"Theoretically, the legislature could push off congressional redistricting," said another Democrat who works on redistricting. "But it would set a new precedent and would be another Tom DeLay-like situation." (DeLay led a re-redistricting last decade in Texas.)

Gamesmanship aside, it's important to look at the actual implications of such a move. And, the reality is that the timing of the line-drawing might not have that much effect on the partisan breakdown of the congressional delegation.

Right now, Republicans control eight of 11 seats in Virginia, including three districts that went for President Obama in 2008 and three districts that were held by Democrats last cycle. That means Republicans will want to shore up their newest members.

If the map is a compromise between the two parties, it would likely result in lines that make all 11 incumbents safer -- along the lines, ahem, of what happened in California during the 2001 redistricting.

If Republicans control the entire process, they can shore up their eight members and potentially go for a ninth seat.

But given the current state of play, that ninth seat would be pretty hard to get, and could put other Republicans at risk.

Here's what the GOP would be shooting for, district by district (and be sure to follow along on the congressional map here.):

* 2nd district: Republicans could shore up freshman Rep. Scott Rigell (R) in his Virginia Beach-based swing district by adding some of Rep. Rob Wittman's (R) strongly Republican 1st district running up the east coast of the state. Wittman's seat needs to shed about 50,000 people, while Rigell needs to pick up about 60,000, so it's a relatively easy call.

* 5th district: Despite going Democratic for one cycle in 2008, freshman Rep. Robert Hurt's (R) district in south-central Virginia is pretty conservative. He could be made safer, though, if his district takes in some Republican territory from neighboring districts held by Reps. Eric Cantor (R) and Bob Goodlatte (R). There are lots of options here, and lots of conservative territory.

* 9th district: Freshman Rep. Morgan Griffith's (R) district is very conservative, and it's hard to see Democrats winning it back, barring a repeat bid from longtime former Rep. Rick Boucher (D). But the district needs to add lots of population. The easiest and most likely solution is to draw in Salem, which would have the dual benefit of adding Republican-leaning population and putting Griffith's home into the district (he currently lives in the neighboring 6th district).

* 10th district : Rep. Frank Wolf (R) is a survivor -- big time. His northern Virginia district went for Obama by seven points in 2008, but he still won by 20 despite being outspent by his opponent. That said, Wolf just turned 72 years old in January. And if he can't serve 10 more years, Republicans will have to defend the seat at some point. His district has grown a lot and needs to shrink, but since he is from the eastern part of the district (closer to D.C.), it's going to be hard for him to pick up territory in the GOP-leaning Shenandoah Valley to the west. He could grab some more Republican parts of the two other Northern Virginia districts -- the 8th and the 11th -- but that might ruin GOP attempts to reclaim the 11th.

* 11th district: This seat is really the x-factor in the redistricting process. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) narrowly survived 2010, but his district as it stands is pretty safe for a Democrat. If Wolf gets shored up, Connolly could benefit by taking on some of the Democratic territory from Wolf's district. If Republicans control the process and want to get ambitious, though, they could try to add some more Republican parts of Wittman's 1st district to at least keep the 11th competitive. With Wittman already ceding some ground to Rigell, though, it could be a tough balancing act.

Republicans control every other competitive district in the state, so the 11th is the final frontier.

Rep. Bobby Scott's (D) Richmond- and Norfolk-based 3rd district is majority-African American, and Rep. Jim Moran's (D) suburban Washington 8th district is also very Democratic.

The most likely result of a compromise map is that everyone gets safer -- including Connolly -- and the map stays at 8-to-3 with a handful of somewhat competitive districts. If Republicans control the process, though, they could potentially stretch for a 9-to-2 map.

But that's risky, said Mike Whatley, the editor of the Rose Report at Claremont-McKenna College.

"Republicans need to keep in mind that they need to keep 10th district Republican," Whatley said. "They'll struggle with that if they want to make 11th a Republican district."

The practical implications of a GOP power grab might not be great. But if you're a Republican member of Congress, you'd be much happier to have your party drawing all the lines.

The question for the GOP is whether it wants to push the envelope.

As the redistricting maps turn; next stop Nevada

2011-02-14T23:21:00.003-05:00

The redistricting talks thus far has taken us to Texas, Indiana, http://audacityofcovin.blogspot.com/2011/01/as-redistricting-maps-turn-next-stop_20.html, Illinois, http://audacityofcovin.blogspot.com/2011/01/as-redistricting-maps-turn-next-stop_31.html, Ohio, and California. For the next stop, we cross the border into Nevada; a state that recently has become a major player in elections.

Turning to Nevada:

Explosive growth in the Las Vegas area means Nevada will gain a congressional seat in 2012. And that's likely to benefit Democrats.

A Democratic-controlled legislature and a Republican governor mean the redistricting process will be split. But whether state legislators work out a deal or the courts wind up drawing the map, Democrats should have a good opportunity to at least even the score in the state, where Republicans currently hold two of three congressional districts.

Nevada, the fastest-growing state in the country, is a Democratic-trending swing state at the presidential level, having gone for President Bush in 2004 and President Obama in 2008.

And, since neither side has full control of the drawing of the map, the logical solution would be to split the map -- either create two Republican districts and two Democratic districts, or draw one safe district for each party and two competitive districts.

"Republicans and Democrats both believe that they can draw three-to-one maps, and the truth is either one could," said Republican consultant Ryan Erwin, "But neither of them could get it through the legislature and get the governor to sign it."

Democrats could try to get an edge, though The party might cite its registration advantage in the state -- it has about 70,000 more active voters than Republicans thanks in large part to the ultra-competitive 2008 Democratic presidential primary -- to push for only one safe Republican district.

"It's not a stretch to see how you could create a map with two strong lean-Democratic districts, one Republican district and one competitive district," said Tom Bonier, chief operating officer at the National Committee for an Effective Congress, which advises Democrats on redistricting. "The question is whether Democrats will propose it and whether the governor would stomach it." (Gov. Brian Sandoval is a Republican, and the Democrats cannot override a veto.)

The large growth in Las Vegas-based Clark County means that the new district will be based there. The county now contains nearly three-fourths of the state's population, so at least three districts will have to take in large parts of the county's population (while the fourth district will likely be headquartered in the state's other population center -- Reno-based Washoe County).

Right now, most of Clark County's population is contained in two districts -- the heavily Democratic 1st district held by Rep. Shelley Berkley in Las Vegas and North Las Vegas, and the suburban 3rd district that is now held by freshman Republican Rep. Joe Heck, which is Democratic-leaning seat. The 2nd district, which is Republican-tilting, includes every other county in the state (along with a few voters in Clark County) and belongs to Republican Rep. Dean Heller.

The major changes that will be made are the creation of a new district and the shrinking of Heck's and Berkley's districts.

Heck's district is the biggest population-wise in the country, thanks to rapid growth, and has been estimated as the first congressional district to reach one million residents. Berkley's has also grown fast, and their two districts can essentially be morphed into three, if that's what the map-drawers want to do.

If you take the more Democratic parts of Heck's district and add parts of Berkley's district, it's easy to make two Democratic districts and one Republican district in Clark County. One of those districts (potentially Heck's) may have to take in some rural counties north of Clark County, but the areas between there and the Reno area are so sparsely populated that things wouldn't change that much.

If Democrats push for two Democratic seats and one competitive seat in Clark County, the new seat wouldn't take quite so many Democrats from Heck, leaving his district marginal but also leaving the new Democratic district less safe.

Nevada Democratic consultant Kami Dempsey, who works on redistricting matters, suggested Democrats could earn redistricting concessions from Sandoval (R) during the looming budget debate.

"We have about a $3 billion shortfall that we have to fill," Dempsey. "Who knows what deals will be struck through that process?"

Heller, meanwhile, could get safer by dropping the little territory he has in Clark County, which is slightly Republican but not as much as other parts of his district. Or he could give away more of northern Nevada to another district and take in some more GOP parts of Clark County.

Heller is popular and pretty safe, but his district almost went for President Obama in 2008, and Republicans may want to shore him up just to make sure they don't lose the district if Heller were ever to leave or run for higher office.

Which brings us to a major x-factor: Heller and Berkley are both looking at a run for the Sen. John Ensign's (R-Nev.) seat in 2012.

If either or both make the statewide leap and do it soon (i.e. before redistricting is done), they may not be as concerned about keeping their districts intact. And Berkley's district, in particular, could undergo wholesale changes if she vacates it.

The subplot in all of this is a coterie of ambitious Clark County Democrats who will be looking to run for Congress in 2012 -- a list that includes, but isn't limited to, state House Speaker John Oceguera, state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford, former Rep. Dina Titus, and 2010 Democratic governor nominee Rory Reid.

Reid, the son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), is already being floated for the seat. And Titus, who lost her seat to Heck in November, has said she's looking to run in the new district too.

"It will be a Democratic seat, a southern seat and will include part of what I represented, so I will definitely be looking at it," Titus told the Las Vegas Sun.

The question is whether Titus and Reid have one district to run in, or whether they have two or even three.

All of them will want the new district drawn for them, and its location could have a major impact on who wins the seat. They are all from different parts of the county, and by drawing those areas in or out of a new district, the map-makers could give one of those candidates a leg up on competitors in a Democratic primary.

But even if they don't get drawn in to the new district, there's still hope. If Heck's district remains competitive and/or Berkley retires, there would still be opportunities to run.

Another major question in Clark County is whether the map-makers try to create a majority-Hispanic district -- a growing possibility given the increasing size of that community. And if they do create such a district, it could benefit a Hispanic candidate.

Regardless of whether Heller runs for Senate, his district is still likely to be based in Washoe County. So we're going to see a similar cast of characters to the one we saw in 2006 when Heller first ran for the seat, beating 2010 GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle by less than 500 votes in the primary.

Keep in mind through all of this: Nevada is the first state that has been looked at in this series where control of the redistricting process is split between parties. That makes for a difficult negotiating process, and any failure to agree could pretty easily lead to the courts drawing the map.

The congressional delegation gets along well, and it's a common practice for the delegation to reach a compromise that the state legislature rubber stamps. But adding a fourth seat to the map complicates things, and certain state legislators will be personally interested in how the congressional map turns out.

"Most folks think it is quite likely, because of makeup in capital, that this will be decided by the judicial branch," said Nevada political guru Jon Ralston.

Even then, though, much of the above still applies. There will be three districts in Clark County, and the county has many more registered Democrats than Republicans. The GOP may not be able to count on getting a Republican-leaning Clark County district from the court, so it may be willing to make a deal with Democrats.

Whatever the outcome, the Democrats' days as a minority in the congressional delegation could be numbered.

Closing the wealth gap could aid the economy

2011-02-14T00:43:00.004-05:00

There has been much conversation from both sides of the political aisle on how to get the country out of its current recession. The biggest focal points are lowering unemployment and creating jobs. Most of the time there is empty rhetoric if there is any focus on it by elected officials. One of the factors that affect the economy and how individuals feel during it is tax rates. Over time, the benefits of them have aided the upper 2% much more than the rest of the 98%.

That split was seen last year when Republicans refused to only help 98% of the country in order to protect the top 2%. Ultimately, 100% of the country had their current tax rates extended. However, the Washington Post's Harold Meyerson put the effect of taxes on the poor, middle class, and wealthy into perspective and how a more serious approach to closing the wealth gap might aid the economy's consistent struggles.

As Meyerson writes:

What ails the economy, various wise men tell us, is that we're not innovating like we used to. Personal computers and the Internet may look like a big deal, but their impact on our lives - and incomes - pales alongside the effect that electric power, the automobile and the airplane had on our 20th-century forebears. Much as onetime California Angels manager Lefty Phillips said of some overhyped rookies, "Our phenoms ain't phenominating."

As The Post's Steve Pearlstein discussed in his Wednesday column, there's a growing body of work - most prominently, that of George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen, who has just published an e-book, "The Great Stagnation" - that argues that the stagnating incomes that most Americans have experienced over the past three decades have been caused by this decline in innovation.

Cowen's is an elegant theory and by no means entirely wrong. It fails to explain, however, why other nations with advanced economies, such as Germany and France, haven't experienced the same economic transformations the United States has - in particular, the upward redistribution of the nation's wealth to the very rich as everyone else's income flat-lined. That didn't happen in the other advanced economies, even though those nations' record of innovation isn't any better (and by many measures is worse) than ours.

But Cowen contends that the innovation gap is the real culprit. Since the early 1970s, he argued in last Sunday's Economic View column in the New York Times, "we are coming up with ideas that benefit relatively small numbers of people" economically. From 1947 to 1973, he wrote, "inflation-adjusted median income in the United States more than doubled." Since then, it has risen just 22 percent (and that small increase is largely the result of more members of the household entering the workforce).

The stagnation of median income, in Cowen's view, is the consequence of the absence of innovations on the scale of Henry Ford's assembly-line cars. "No one in particular is to blame," he wrote. "Until science has a greater impact again on average daily living standards, the political problem will be in learning to live within our means."

But is the absence of world-changing innovation really behind the economic stagnation that all but the wealthiest tenth of Americans have endured for the past 35 years? After all, during that time our gross domestic product expanded and our productivity rose. The difference between America pre- and post-1973 is that in the years preceding, the benefits from economic growth were widely shared, while in the years following, they increasingly went only to the top.

From 1947 through 1973, according to the Economic Policy Institute's State of Working America report, released this week, the incomes of the poorest 20 percent of Americans rose 117 percent, while the middle 20 percent saw a rise of 104 percent and the wealthiest 20 percent a rise of 89 percent. From 1973 through 2000, however, the income of the bottom fifth increased by a scant 9 percent, the middle fifth by 23 percent and the richest fifth by 62 percent. Since 2000, the concentration of income gains at the very top has grown only more pronounced. The share of income going to the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans, which was less than 10 percent in the early '70s, reached 23.5 percent in 2007 - the highest level on record save for 1928. (Note: Both years preceded epic crashes.)

Lagging innovation may explain many things, but it doesn't explain the rise of the rich over everybody else. For that, we need to look at changing power relationships, something that most mainstream economists resolutely ignore. Surely, the shrinking of unions - from 35 percent of the private-sector workforce in the 1950s to less than 7 percent today - has decreased American workers' ability to win good wages. Surely, the offshoring of manufacturing has diminished both the number of good jobs and our ability to exploit our innovations productively. Surely, the deregulation of finance has diverted more and more resources to a relatively small circle of bankers and speculators. And that tiny cadre has chiefly enriched itself at the expense of the rest of the nation.

The great majority of Americans haven't been struggling just because our phenoms haven't been phenominating. They've also lost power to our corporate and financial elites. Until they can win it back, all the innovations in the world won't bring them their rightful share of the wealth they create.

150 years since Lincoln said his final goodbyes to Springfield

2011-02-10T22:36:00.004-05:00

To commemorate the 150th anniversary of the Civil War that divided the northern states and southern states, the New York Times has been doing a series of articles. The most recent one focused in on President-elect Abraham Lincoln's final farewell speech and remarks to the city that shaped the better part of his adult years; Springfield. He might have had an inclination due to the times and circumstances he was about to deal with, but he hoped that one day in the near future he would return to Springfield and live out his older years. However, as historians and anyone who has taken a history class knows, his return was not a happy one as it was in casket after his assassination.

Thus, I direct you to the New York Times piece and take a step back 150 years to the early part of 1861 as one of Illinois' favorite sons was about to embark on a journey to the nation's capital to try to keep a fractured nation together.

As Ted Widmer presents:

The Lincolns had known since November that they would be leaving Springfield, but that only heightened the drama of the scene that unfolded on the overcast morning of their departure. The sculptor Thomas Jones remembered, “It was a dark, gloomy, misty morning, boding rain.” After packing his luggage, Lincoln fixed a simple tag to it: “A. Lincoln White House Washington, D.C.” Then the president-elect headed to the depot of the Great Western Railroad, where he was to board the Presidential Special. Despite the grandeur of the name, the Special was only two cars long, a passenger coach and a baggage car, both painted yellow. The locomotive was named after L. M. Wiley – rather unfortunately, it turned out, since Wiley was a slaveowner from Charleston.

Lincoln turned to his friends and fellow citizens who greeted him at the depot. Before him, his secretary John Hay recorded, Lincoln could see “over a thousand persons of all classes.” He shook as many hands as he could, visibly moved (“his face was pale, and quivered with emotion so deep as to render him almost unable to utter a single word”). At 8 a.m. precisely, he was taken to the cars, where he turned to the crowd, removed his hat and asked for silence.

What followed was one of the great speeches in the Lincoln canon, a tender farewell apparently delivered extemporaneously, though Lincoln had obviously given a great deal of thought to it. He thanked his friends and neighbors for their support, remembered his profound connection to Springfield, reflected on the daunting challenge before him and asked for their prayers.

But the speech was so much more than that. Already, he was showing the odd cadences that separate his speeches from nearly all others: the poetic repetition of the same word (“here”) to start sentences, the perfect comma-pauses, the balance between opposites like “with” and “without.” As if the words were not impressive enough, he wept while delivering it, as did his audience. They cheered loud and long when it was over – a haunting final line ends the article pasted into Hay’s book (“As he turned to enter the car three cheers were given, and a few seconds afterwards the train moved slowly out of the sight of the silent gathering”). He never saw Springfield again.

Once aboard Henry Villard, the reporter whose dispatches were going out through the Associated Press, approached Lincoln and asked him to write out what he had just said. The result is a fascinating document, now in the Library of Congress, that shows Lincoln at work in a more unpolished way than usual. His normally steady hand wobbles – not from the emotion he has just displayed, but from the movement of the train. He grew frustrated and handed the paper to his secretary, John Nicolay, who finished it.

Villard telegraphed its contents around the country, creating an instant Lincoln classic just as the trip was getting underway. Lincoln sat by himself, “alone and depressed,” according to Villard, but for the others it appears to have been “a pleasant ride,” as Nicolay put it. The passengers, a mix of politicians, journalists and advisers, chattered happily. The mood lightened further as Lincoln’s former law partner, Ward Hill Lamon, pulled out his banjo and, according to Villard, “amused us with negro songs.”

The train had to stop frequently to refuel, invariably before large crowds that had assembled in expectation, and Lincoln was pulled out of his despondency by the need to speak to them. Villard called it “the Journey Through Ovations,” and from the moment Lincoln started speaking, he found a powerful wellspring of support from the people along the route. The first stop, Decatur, was a place of meaning: Lincoln had stayed overnight here when his family was moving west from Indiana, and it was where he had been nicknamed the Railsplitter by the Illinois state Republican convention. Here “a great crowd” assembled, according to Villard. In Tolono, pop. 277, a thousand came out.

But even in Illinois, in the last few minutes that he would ever be in his home state, he was not free from danger. According to the railroad historian Scott Trostel, the first of three assassination attempts along the journey to Washington took place about a mile west of the Indiana state line. Just before Lincoln’s train came through, an engineer going along the same route found “that a machine for cars had been fastened upon the rails in such a manner that if a train run at full speed had struck it, the engine and cars must have been thrown off and many persons killed.”

Every few miles saw another twist: at State Line, Ind., all of the passengers disembarked, ate “indifferent food at double the regular price,” and boarded a new railroad line, the Toledo and Wabash. In Lafayette, Lincoln marveled that he had already come farther than it would have taken him all day to walk as a young man. In Thorntown, a comedian’s nightmare: Lincoln starting telling one of his famous tall tales – and the train began to pull away before he got to the punch line. Lincoln could only laugh and wave from the rear platform as his audience fell away behind him. When he got to the next town, Lebanon, he saw people running up, and was told that they must be the people waiting to hear the end of his story.

The Special arrived in Indianapolis at 5 p.m., where it was saluted by 34 guns – one for every state in the Union, including those that had seceded. This was no trackside village – Indianapolis had 18,611 people, and John Nicolay estimated the crowd at 50,000, roughly three times the population. There were flags and bunting everywhere. Lincoln was called upon to speak several times: in response to a greeting from the governor; from the balcony of his hotel, the Bates House; and again to people who had not heard his earlier remarks. In his longest speech of the night, he promised to avoid “coercion” and “invasion” of the South, but insisted on the right of the government to do its business – including holding forts, collecting duties and regulating the mail. A slightly off-color joke about the difference between marriage and free love lightened the mood, plenty festive to begin with.

In the midst of this triumph came a near-disaster. For weeks, Lincoln had been composing the most important public document he had ever undertaken, his inaugural address. He had privately printed a small number of drafts, and these were jealously guarded, for fear that their contents would leak to the voracious press. On the first day of his journey, he had entrusted his copy to his son Robert, and on the evening of the 11th he turned to Robert for the speech. Nicolay evocatively captured what ensued when young Lincoln told his father that the carpetbag holding the speech had been placed in the ordinary safekeeping of the hotel, where anyone unscrupulous might find it:

A look of stupefaction passed over the countenance of Mr. Lincoln, and visions of that Inaugural in all the next morning’s newspapers floated through his imagination. Without a word he opened the door of his room, forced his way through the crowded corridor down to the office, where, with a single stride of his long legs, he swung himself across the clerk’s counter, behind which a small mountain of carpetbags of all colors had accumulated. Then drawing a little key out of his pocket he began delving for the black ones, and opened one by one those that the key would unlock, to the great surprise and amusement of the clerk and bystanders, as their miscellaneous contents came to light. Fortune favored the President-elect, for after the first half dozen trials, he found his treasures.

Evening did nothing to diminish the crowds and their hunger for contact with the man John Hay called “the great elect himself.” He recorded that “the halls, passages, and rooms have all been congested with turbulent congregations of men, all of whom had too many elbows, too much curiosity, and a perfect gushing desire to shake hands with somebody – the President, if possible, if not, with somebody who had shaken hands with him.”

Lincoln’s other secretary, Nicolay, conjured a similar scene of madness: “The House is perfectly jammed with people. Three or four ladies and as many gentlemen have even invaded the room assigned to Mr. Lincoln, while outside the door I hear the crowd pushing and grumbling and shouting in almost frantic endeavours to get to another parlor in the door of which Mr. Lincoln stands shaking hands with the multitude. It is a severe ordeal for us, and increased about tenfold for him.”

At last, around midnight, the ordeal ended, and Lincoln, Hay and Nicolay retired to bed. They had come a great distance in one day. The White House was 200 miles closer.

As the redistricting maps turn; next stop California

2011-02-09T23:26:00.004-05:00

This will be the seventh stop on a journey around the country addressing redistricting. After visiting and discussing parts of the east, midwest, and south; the focus shifts west to the biggest prize in major elections: California. Thus far; Texas, Indiana, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Ohio have been dissected. Now it is California's turn.

What might lie ahead for California:

Predicting how a state will draw its new congressional districts is often a fool's errand.

But nowhere is that the case more than in California.

That's because the drawing and approval of the state's 53 districts this year is in the hands of 14 people. They are mostly amateurs, not political pros and they're not supposed to have any regard for incumbents, which means they could do just about anything.

If you're a member of Congress from California, that's a very scary proposition.

"When you go from a system that allows incumbents to draw districts that favor themselves to one that disallows considering incumbents at all, you're bound to have some incumbents paired together and some open districts," said Tom Bonier of the National Committee for an Effective Congress, which advises Democrats on the redistricting process.

Added GOP consultant Dave Gilliard: "There's a good chance that the vast majority of the congressional districts in California are not going to resemble what we have right now."

The new set-up comes courtesy of Proposition 20, which passed in the November election. Previously, the state turned over power to draw state legislative districts to this sort of bipartisan panel but Prop. 20 added congressional districts to the mix this year, and the new panel is getting started as we speak.

The 14 members of the panel are compromised of five Democrats, five Republicans and four voters with no party affiliation. They were picked out of a group of 30,000 applicants and range from a former director of the U.S. Census Bureau to a ranch owner.

Many observers expect a large amount of upheaval, but since there are so many districts and the process is largely brand new (Arizona has a somewhat similar system with citizens drawing the districts), there's really no way of knowing what they'll do.

We can, though, venture a few educated guesses:

1. It seems likely that there will be some increase in the number of competitive districts. The last round of redistricting brought one of the most effective incumbent-protection gerrymanders in the history of redistricting. In 53 districts over ten years, only one -- ONE -- district has changed hands between Republicans and Democrats. And it only switched once.

The committee doesn't necessarily need to try to draw competitive districts -- its mandate only requires that it draws "communities of interest" together -- but it may try to anyways. And even if it doesn't, it's nearly impossible for the districts to be drawn any less competitively than they are now.

2. A number of incumbents are likely to have their homes drawn into the same districts. That's a setup that could lead to incumbents running against each other or, to avoid that situation, running in districts where they don't live (which is legal). More ambitious observers think this could happen to as many as one-quarter of the state's delegation.

With 53 districts and a requirement that the panel doesn't take incumbents into account, it would be very odd if two of them were somehow not drawn into the same district. And the number of odd-shaped districts in big cities and elsewhere (many large rural districts stretch out from the big population centers in an awkward fashion) in the current map means that there is plenty of room for change if the panel wants to create a so-called "good government" -- i.e. logically shaped -- map.

3. There is unlikely to be a large shift in the number of Democrats and Republicans in the state's delegation. The state currently has 34 Democrats and 19 Republicans, which pretty accurately reflects the Democrats' level of dominance in the state. Even if the map is drastically altered, the many urban districts are likely to remain Democratic and the rural districts should largely stay Republican.

That doesn't mean there won't be changes, though. Republicans and Democrats who know the map say Republican Reps. Dan Lungren, Mary Bono Mack, Buck McKeon and Ken Calvert could be in more trouble. (All four are already in districts that have moved significantly towards Democrats in recent years and went for President Obama in 2008.) On the Democratic side, Reps. Jerry McNerney, Dennis Cardoza and Jim Costa, who both had close races last year for their Fresno-area seats, could find themselves with a tougher districts.

But even if Republicans wind up losing or gaining a few seats on the commission-drawn map, it's probably a win for them. Without the commission, Democrats would control the process (they have both chambers in the state legislature and the governor's mansion) and would be able to draw whatever map they wanted to.

4. The map could well be drawn by a court in the end. If the panel cannot agree on a map or, for example, doesn't draw enough districts where a majority of residents are racial minorities, the process could go to the courts and wind up in the hands of a court-appointed map-drawer.

"The commission is so oddly put together, it's probably going to be a court map," ventured one Republican strategist who knows the situation in the Golden State.

Either way, the drawing of the map would not be in the hands of the incumbents, and sources say many incumbents are just now waking up to the possibility that their districts will be significantly different next time they run in 2012.

Members of the delegation didn't like the ballot proposition in the first place, for obvious reasons. But Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.), who is in charge of the Democrats' redistricting efforts, said the commission isn't accountable to voters.

"I think it's a prime example of people who don't like what 's going on looking for an easy fix," Thompson said. "You saw the same thing with term limits."

Thompson also downplayed the possibility of major changes in the state's delegation, noting that it didn't feature many changes after the 1991 round of redistricting, when a court drew the map.

But not everyone is so serene, and there are several good reasons for that disquiet.

First, the state is chock full of assembly members and state senators who have had almost no opportunity to move up to the federal level over the last decade. Second, California has term limits, so many of these state legislators will be out of jobs in 2012. And third, members of Congress could be taking on lots of territory where they might now be as well-known as one of their opponents.

All of it adds up to a much more competitive California in 2012. Open seats and incumbents being paired up in even a few districts would be a marked change for the state, but most agree that it could go much, much further than that.

At long last, California is a state worth watching.

As the redistricting maps turn; next stop Ohio

2011-02-03T23:19:00.007-05:00

This is the next installment of the tour around the country addressing and targeting the topic of redistricting and its impact on the 2012 elections. Up to this point; Texas, Indiana, Georgia, Illinois, and Massachusetts have all been highlighted. Now, the focus shifts to Ohio. A state with a Republican governor replacing a Democratic one and a state that saw Republicans make gains in Columbus.

Analyzing Ohio:

Ohio is losing two congressional seats, which means 2012 could feature incumbent battles galore in the Buckeye State.

With Ohio Republicans in charge of the redistricting process, two Cleveland-area Democrats are almost sure to be drawn into the same district. The big unknown is where else the GOP decides to eliminate the second seat.

The GOP controls redistricting after winning the governor's mansion and holding both chambers of the state legislature in 2010. But the announcement a few weeks ago that the state will lose two House seats is likely to jeopardize a Republican seat.

By winning five seats in Ohio in 2010, Republicans are basically at their seat ceiling right now. They hold 13 of 18 seats, and with two of those seats set for elimination, maintaining 13 winnable districts will be very, very difficult.

"That would require some acrobatics very few Republicans have ever attempted," said David Wasserman, a redistricting expert at the Cook Political Report.

The first seat is relatively easy for Republicans to eliminate. All five Democrats in the state's delegation are clustered in adjoining districts in northern and northeastern Ohio.

Thanks to population loss in the Cleveland area, eliminating one of those districts is as simple as merging those five districts into four, and letting the chips fall where they may.

There has been a good bit of consternation among liberals that their champion -- Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) -- would be targeted by this process, but a more likely candidate would appear to be Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Ohio).

Her Akron-based 13th district borders three other Democrats -- Kucinich to the north, Rep. Marcy Kaptur to the west and Rep. Tim Ryan to the east. By moving more of Akron into Ryan's 17th district, more of Lorain into Kaptur's 9th and expanding Kucinich's Cleveland-based 10th district slightly, Sutton's district would basically be collapsed.

The remaining Republican areas in the middle of Sutton's district could be given to freshman Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio) in the 16th district to help shore him up.

The options for Sutton, at that point, are all bad. She could run in a primary against Kucinich or Ryan (whose district would be taking on Sutton's geographic base), but in neither case would she be given much of a chance.

Kaptur and Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-Ohio) are most likely to come out off the process unscathed. Fudge's district, the state's lone majority-black seat, probably won't be significantly altered, and while Kaptur may take on more territory, she's the least likely primary opponent for Sutton.

Once Republicans have reduced five Democratic seats to four, they must decide where to cut next.

The logical answer is southeast Ohio.

Southeastern Ohio has lost significant population, and the congressmen representing the area will both be freshmen with little political clout.

Incoming Reps. Bob Gibbs and Bill Johnson could see their districts merged in order to protect the rest of the GOP's gains in the state, which are pretty tenuous right now.

Johnson will represent the 6th district, which was drawn along the eastern Ohio border for outgoing Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland when he was in the House. Gibbs will take over the massive and rural 18th district, which shares a long border with the 6th. Pushing those two districts together is a pretty easy proposition.

But geography isn't the only reason Gibbs and Johnson are logical targets. The other is that they are the two least-heralded freshmen in the delegation. (Republicans have high hopes for Renacci and Rep. Steve Stivers, and Rep. Steve Chabot has been in Congress before). Johnson, an anti-tax advocate whose victory over former Rep. Charlie Wilson (D) was among the most surprising in the country, wasn't a top recruit and isn't close to the GOP establishment in the state.

The other option for the GOP could be if Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) or another member of the delegation opts to run against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in 2012. But collapsing a district in the middle of the state, where Jordan's 4th district is, would be considerably more difficult than doing it in the southeast.

What's clear, though, is that a Republican will probably lose his seat in the redstricting process --a fact even former state GOP chairman Bob Bennett has acknowledged.

"I think it is going to be very difficult to create a map in Ohio where the Democrats only have three seats in a state that's a competitive two-party state," Bennett told the Cleveland Plain-Dealer recently.

While getting rid of one Republican may be painful, the alternative was much worse for Republicans. Had Democrats held on to either the governor's mansion or the state House (where they held a slight edge before November), Republicans wouldn't have nearly as much leeway with the map. And members like Stivers, Chabot, Renacci and Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio) wouldn't be able to count on getting shored up.

Simply put: A best-case scenario for the GOP in the next Congress would probably be to hold 12 of 16 remaining congressional districts.

As the redistricting maps turn; next stop Massachusetts

2011-01-31T23:01:00.004-05:00

Previously, on this series; redistricting in Illinois was discussed. Additionally; Texas, Indiana, and Georgia have been discussed. Massachusetts, like Illinois, will likely favor Democrats during this round of redistricting.

For the take on Massachusetts, here it is:

A Massachusetts Democrat is leaving the House in 2012, whether he or she likes it or not.

Massachusetts found out last week that it is one of 10 states that will lose a seat in Congress. And about now, its members of Congress are probably getting a little nervous.

The good news for them, though, is that they are unlikely to be pitted against each other. Massachusetts, unlike many other states on the chopping block, probably won't have to go through a painful redistricting process.

And who do the 10 members of the state's all-Democratic delegation have to thank for that? Republican Sen. Scott Brown (Mass.).

Had Brown not shocked the world by winning a special election in January, there wouldn't be an opportunity for a Democratic member of Congress to challenge him. And without the opportunity for a promotion, the only way to avoid two members running against each other would have been if one retired.

As it stands now, it appears likely that at least one member of the delegation will run against Brown. Failing that, the members could hope one of two septuagenarian members retires.

Massachusetts is the largest state with an all-Democratic delegation -- 10 members who have served, in all but one case, for at least a decade.

Those 10 members will have to fit into nine districts come 2012. But with a few of them eyeing Brown and a possible retirement or two, it's logical that at least one incumbent will leave the House, allowing for the elimination of his or her district and letting everyone rest easier.

The question is, who will it be?

A few options:

* Rep. Michael Capuano - Capuano ran for the Senate seat in the special election last year, losing the Democratic primary to state Attorney General Martha Coakley, who went on to lose to Brown. Given that Capuano was the only member of the delegation who stepped forward to run last time (and the disaster that ensued with Coakley's campaign), it seems logical that he would run again.

* Rep. Stephen Lynch - Lynch, who briefly considered a special election bid, is often grouped with Capuano as the members who are most likely to run for Senate. He needs to decide, though, whether his vote against the health care bill killed his chances of winning a Democratic primary.

* Rep. Barney Frank - Frank has also been mentioned as a potential Senate candidate, but mostly he's the No. 1 candidate for retirement. Being 70 years old is the profile of a retiree -- not a freshman senator who once chaired the powerful House Financial Services Committee. And losing your gavel, as Frank is about to, often leads to a curtain call.

* Rep. John Olver - Olver has insisted that he is running for reelection, but he's 74 years old and he's already got a primary challenger, in former state Sen. Andrea Nuciforo. If Nuciforo can run a viable campaign, that's an incentive for Olver to step aside. (Insider tip: state Sen. Stanley Rosenberg (D), who is often thought of as a potential Olver successor, will play a major role in drawing the map, so don't expect him to do Nuciforo any favors.)

The good news for all these Democrats is that, regardless of who exits the House, the new map will be drawn by Democrats. For the first time in three decades, Democrats hold the governor's mansion and both branches of the state legislature.

Larry DiCara, a former Boston city council president and Democratic redistricting guru, said the map can indeed be drawn around whoever might retire or run for Senate, allowing for all nine other members to run in comfortable districts.

He also noted that backdoor meetings could give one of the members a relatively clear Senate primary, by using the drawing of districts as a bargaining chip with the state's delegation.

"One of them says, 'I'll go for the Senate, and you can nuke my district if all you guys step up and do x, y and z,'" DiCara said. "They might say, 'Where do we sign up?'"

Republicans are aiming the get their piece of the pie, too, though.

Despite having a Republican governor in 2001, the new map didn't feature much opportunity for the GOP. This time, state Rep.-elect Dan Winslow, who was involved as a lawyer in past redistricting, and other Republicans are pushing for a fairer map. They have launched FairDistrictsMass.org, which seeks to apply grassroots pressure on the legislature to conduct an even-handed redistricting process. (The state legislature has balked at an effort to create a bipartisan redistricting commission.)

Winslow is also pushing for the creation of a majority-minority district in Boston by citing the Voting Rights Act, which requires such districts to be drawn where feasible.

Currently, Capuano's Suffolk County-based 8th district has a slight majority of non-white residents, but the voting population is majority-white. Winslow said creating a truer majority-minority districts could lead to an overhaul of the map, which might create opportunities for Republicans.

"We should expect to see at least one congressional district where a person of color would be competitive for Congress ... and at least two or three congressional districts where a Republican would be competitive for Congress," Winslow said.

Whatever map is drawn, Democrats will be losing at least a seat in Congress, which is not welcome news. The good news for them is, save for a successful legal challenge from the GOP and/or minority groups, they should get another friendly map out of the process.

7 Signs 2012 might be tougher for GOP

2011-01-28T01:20:00.004-05:00

Last November could be seen a major rebound election for the Republican Party after two rough electoral cycles in 2006 and 2008. Republicans are already gearing up for 2012 and their mission of making President Barack Obama a one-term president. However, presidential election years drive more voters to the polls and Obama could see huge chunks of his supporters turn out unlike 2010. He will certainly need to sell his agenda to Independents who flipped, but the road ahead generally gives the incumbent an edge despite a multitude of circumstances. The rough economy will continue to draw the most attention from voters especially those not linked to either party's base. Despite claims that President Obama's agenda of the last two years was the biggest negative factor for him and the Democratic Party, the economy probably caused non-Tea Party member anger. If the unemployment could have been lowered near the 8% that some in President Obama's economic council predicted, election results might not have been as brutal as there is a slight chance the Democrats could have maintained control of the U.S. House.

Nonetheless, both parties must quickly analyze exit polls and opinion polls for some clues to how voters made up their minds and what both parties could do to get an electoral result that they would prefer in 2012.

Looking ahead to 2012, a recent article by the Hill could offer some perspective of the road ahead for the GOP in unseating President Obama. The Hill lists 7 reasons that could shape the next election and provide a challenge that some might not be ready for in less than two years.

The list includes:

1) Incumbents are tough to beat: Presidential incumbents have inherent advantages, winning three of the last contests. Presidents Reagan and Clinton were politically damaged by the midterm elections in their first terms, but two years later, both cruised to victory. Obama called the Nov. 2, 2010, election a “shellacking,” changed his governing approach and Congress had one of the most productive lame-duck sessions in recent memory.

2) A move to the center by Obama: During the lame-duck, 2012 GOP hopefuls broke with Republican congressional leaders on the tax cut deal they brokered with Obama. That trend will continue this year. Generally speaking, compromises with the president don’t play well with the base. But House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) both have strong political incentives to work with the White House on a range of issues, including trade, education and perhaps energy. As Republican candidates woo conservatives in Iowa and New Hampshire, Obama will try to burnish his standing with the independents who backed him in 2008 and then voted for Republican congressional candidates last year.

3) The economy is showing signs of life: Improvements in the economy always help boost the party in power. So if the nation’s unemployment rate continues to drop, that will help the president and protect Boehner’s new majority in the House.

4) Presidential elections are usually more about personality than policies. Voters like to like their president. George W. Bush was deemed more likeable than Vice President Al Gore in 2000. Four years later, Democrats enjoyed advantages over Bush on key policy issues, but Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) didn’t connect with voters as much as Bush did. Obama’s personality was key to his stunning win over Hillary Clinton in the primary and later to his triumph over Senator John McCain (R-AZ). Throughout the latter half of 2009 and last year, polls showed that the public was skeptical of Obama’s policies. But independents didn’t turn on Obama personally as they did against Bush in 2006.

5) Democrats still have fresh memories of Bush. Liberal Democrats were furious with Obama’s deal with the GOP on tax cuts in the lame-duck session. Those intraparty tensions will flare in 2011 as Obama seeks to curb federal spending and move long-stalled trade deals. But 2012 will likely be a different story as Democrats focus on the their real political opponent – the Republican presidential candidate.

6) RNC debt. The Republican National Committee is $20 million in debt and has to reestablish its reputation with donors after many of them put away their checkbooks during Michael Steele’s controversial term. The Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, has $15.5 million in debt. While some Obama donors are upset with his move to the center, the president’s fundraising skills are a significant asset. The news here for Republicans, however, could easily turn. Outside GOP-allied groups, such as American Crossroads, tapped into anti-Obama fervor in 2010 and will undoubtedly be a force in this cycle as well.

7) People like divided government. In recent years, both Democrats and Republicans have overreached when controlling the executive and legislative branches. In 2006, Democrats called for a check and balance on Bush and won control of Congress. Republicans followed the same playbook in 2010 on Obama and it worked. In 2012, Republicans will have to come up with a new game plan because they have a comfortable majority in the House and have a good shot at winning the Senate. Polls indicate that voters are still wary of the GOP and Republican lawmakers acknowledge they have a lot of work to do before they regain voters’ trust.

Time will how big each will play in 2012, but all provide an edge for Obama and make the climb for the Republicans regaining the White House a long journey filled with more challenges than they faced in 2010.

As the redistricting maps turn; next stop Illinois

2011-01-24T00:52:00.003-05:00

Continuing with the redistricting series, the attention now turns to Illinois; the state closest to President Barack Obama's heart. Previously; Texas, Indiana, and Georgia have all been discussed regarding the breakdowns and path forward especially for Republicans as they look to work off of their 2010 successes; which includes gaining or maintaining several statehouses.

Now for The Fix's take on Illinois and redistricting in 2012:

When it comes to redistricting, Illinois is Democrats' prize pig. And it might be the biggest prize on the map for either party.

The Democrats control the drawing of the map in only seven states this year. But none of them compare in size or influence to the Land of Lincoln.

In fact, in the other six -- Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, Arkansas, West Virginia and Rhode Island -- the Democrats already control 25 of 32 congressional seats. That doesn't leave much room for map expansion.

Illinois is another story. Republicans just won four seats from Democrats this November and now hold an 11-to-8 edge in the state's congressional delegation. That means lots of room for gains for the other guys.

"This is really the one state where Democrats can do something," said David Wasserman, a redistricting expert at the Cook Political Report.

Illinois Republicans are scared. And they should be.

Those who should be most concerned are four new members -- Reps.-elect Joe Walsh, Bob Dold, Bobby Schilling and Adam Kinzinger -- and a member who just won his second term, Rep. Aaron Schock.

Walsh and Dold just won districts in the northern Chicago suburbs/exurbs near the Wisconsin border. And there's plenty of Democratic territory that can be added to both of their districts by drawing in parts of the Rep. Jan Schakowsky's (D) 9th district and some of the more Democratic areas of Rep.-elect Randy Hultgren's (R) 14th district.

Besides the maneuvering in the Chicago area, the main change will be the likely loss of a district somewhere in the state. This isn't a done deal yet (we'll find out Tuesday when reapportionment data is released by the Census Bureau -- an early Christmas present for political junkies!), but chances are reasonably good the state will drop from 19 districts to 18. (This happened to be the case)

The axed district is expected to come out of the middle of the state, and that would hurt Schock the most, since his Peoria-based 18th district is the most centrally located.

Democrats could pretty easily run Schock out of a district by absorbing his district into the 17th to the west (held by Schilling), the 11th to the north (held by Kinzinger) and the 19th to the south (held by GOP Rep. John Shimkus).

Democrats could eliminate Schock's district and create a more friendly 17th by adding Democratic-leaning Peoria to the 17th and putting more GOP parts of the 17th and 18th into the 19th to the south, the 11th to the north and Rep. Tim Johnson's (R-Ill.) 15th district to the east. By doing that, two GOP districts suddenly morph into one Democratic-leaning district, while shoring up nearby Republicans.

Indeed, Schilling's 17th district was initially drawn (ahem ... creatively) for Democrats and was a surprising GOP pickup this year. So any further shift toward Democrats would make it very tough for Schilling to hold it. (President Obama won the seat by 15 points in 2008.)

It would also create a very tough situation for Schock, who is from Peoria. He would be faced with a choice between running in his home district against another GOP member of Congress, with a tough road ahead in the general election or potentially having to run in a primary against Kinzinger in a friendlier GOP district. (Wasserman explains the scenario further in a lengthy reapportionment preview today.

Schock and Kinzinger have close ties including sharing some campaign staff. It's hard to see them running against each other, but redistricting can lead to some tough choices.

A source close to Schock said the congressman is "well aware that the state may lose a seat, and Aaron's been preparing for what could and might happen" -- mostly by expanding his profile back home.

Kinzinger gains on the deal by getting a friendlier 11th district and more territory around his home in the Bloomington-Normal area. But those gains could be offset by the prospect of a primary against Schock.

By shifting Kinzinger's district south, Rep. Judy Biggert's (R) GOP-leaning 13th district southwest of Chicago could pick up some Democratic-leaning voters in Kane County and Will County -- both which have added significant population in recent years -- and make her district more marginal.

Adding Will County to Biggert's district could allow outgoing Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D), who lost to Kinzinger this year, to run for Biggert's seat when the 73-year-old congresswoman retires -- or if the Democrat decides to challenge the incumbent outright.

Of all the GOPers in the Chicago area, the two members west of Chicago -- Hultgren and Rep. Peter Roskam -- probably have the least to be concerned about. If Democrats try to pack the other districts with Democratic voters, the Republican areas have to go somewhere, and Roskam and Hultgren's districts are the most logical choices, given their current geographic bases.

All these changes considered, Democrats have a good shot at turning five Republican-held seats (Biggert, Schilling, Schock, Dold and Walsh) into four Democratic ones in the coming years (assuming one of those five districts is eliminated).

Another question for the map-drawers will be what to do with Rep. Luis Gutierrez's (D) C-shaped 4th district in Chicago -- a district that is often compared to a set of earmuffs. The district was drawn that way to incorporate most of the city's Hispanic voters both on the North and South Sides of Chicago, but as the Hispanic population has grown and other ethnicities have dropped off, a case can be made for drawing two separate Hispanic-majority districts.

That, of course, could heavily impact other Chicago members -- specifically, nearby Reps. Dan Lipinski (D) and Mike Quigley (D), who each have between 25 and 30 percent Hispanic districts and could see big changes.

But Rob Paral, a demographic expert at the University of Notre Dame, is skeptical that there is a good way to draw two Hispanic-majority districts. "The Latino population is so dispersed," said Paral, who specializes in Hispanic demography. "It doesn't look like it's there."

Gutierrez is open to the idea. That's important, because member input matters. The last time redistricting came around, members of the congressional delegation hammered out their own map and sent it to the state legislature for approval.

Of course, back then, there was split control of the process. Now, it's controlled by the Democrats, and all-powerful state House Speaker Mike Madigan (D) has the power to make or break several members of Congress.

With Democrats poised to bear the brunt of redistricting in so many states this year, they'll have to get their shots in where they can. Unfortunately for them, the opportunities begin and end with basically one state.

Expect an aggressive map.

As the redistricting maps turn; next stop Georgia

2011-01-20T22:49:00.004-05:00

Previously, this month; I have delved into the fact that redistricting around the country is approaching on the horizon. The Fix through the Washington Post has begun a series to focus on individual cases for redistricting around the country. So far, Texas and Indiana have been discussed. Now, the attention towards to the southeast and Georgia; another state like Indiana that was tougher on Democrats and President Barack Obama this past election cycle than 2008.

Now onto the breakdown for Georgia:

Reps. John Barrow and Sanford Bishop just survived one of the toughest environments for Georgia Democrats in their lifetimes.

The question now is whether they can survive redistricting.

Republicans control the state House, state Senate and the governor's mansion in the Peach State, giving them full power over the redistricting process and a chance to re-draw the districts that both Barrow and Bishop will have to run in in 2012.

The GOP has come within a hair of beating both of them in recent years. And after defeating Rep. Jim Marshall (D-Ga.) this year, Barrow and Bishop are the only logical targets remaining for Republicans.

With Marshall out, Republicans now control eight of the state's 13 congressional districts. Georgia is also likely to add a 14th district thanks to population growth, and Republicans are expected to have a relatively easy time creating a GOP-leaning district north of metropolitan Atlanta.

Of the five remaining Democratic districts, three of them are in heavily black -- and heavily Democratic -- areas of Atlanta. The GOP probably won't be able to do much with these districts, besides make small changes that would help nearby Republicans.

That leaves Barrow and Bishop. But taking them out won't be easy either -- especially in the case of Bishop.

Both come from seats that are close to half black; Barrow's district had a 44 percent African American population at last check, while Bishop's was 47.5 percent black. The districts technically aren't covered under the Voting Rights Act (since they don't include a majority of black voters), but they are so close to gaining that status that Democrats and black leaders could pressure Republicans to keep the black vote strong in those districts.

In a Republican dream scenario, they could try to draw both Barrow and Bishop tougher districts, by borrowing GOPers from strongly Republican districts held by Reps. Jack Kingston, Lynn Westmoreland and Paul Broun.

A more likely scenario, though, is that Republicans actually shore up Bishop, potentially turning his district into a majority-black district, and use the more Republican areas of his district to help shore up Rep.-elect Austin Scott (R), who just beat Marshall next door. Once they do that, they need to decide whether they want to go after Barrow.

The GOP could strengthen Bishop by moving the heavily black parts of Macon (from Scott's 8th district) and Valdosta (from Kingston's 1st district) into Bishop's 2nd district in the southwest.

Scott could be shored up by taking some of the more Republican parts of Kingston's and Bishop's districts, and/or taking on some of the growth in GOP-friendly areas of the Atlanta suburbs.

When it comes to Barrow's eastern 12th district, there are basically two ways for Republicans to make him more vulnerable. One is to move more of heavily Democratic Savannah into Kingston's district in the southeast; the other is to take more of heavily Democratic Augusta and move it into Broun's 10th district in the northeast.

But it won't be easy. The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman said Republicans might have to defend such a move in court, because it would dilute the black vote in Barrow's district.

"The easiest way to crack that district is to divide Savannah and Augusta, but you're asking for a lawsuit," Wasserman said.

The Supreme Court ruled last year that the Voting Rights Act doesn't require states to draw "crossover" districts, which are favorable to minority candidates even though minorities don't comprise more than half of the district. But much remains unsettled in this section of the law, and the court's decision doesn't necessarily mean Republicans have carte blanche to dismantle such a district.

Wasserman also pointed to another potential problem: the fact that Republicans, in a 2005 round of redistricting, were hesitant to weaken Kingston's district.

Kingston might have to take one for the team this time -- at least if the party wants to make further gains in the state. Using parts of his district to solidify the districts of Bishop and Scott means he would have to make up for the population loss elsewhere, and Savannah is the easiest answer.

Complicating matters on that front is that fact that Kingston is now the longest-serving Republican member of Congress from Georgia. Internal politics are important in this process, and if Kingston is unwilling to take on more of Savannah -- and, in so doing, make himself potentially more vulnerable to a Democratic challenge down the line -- things get complicated for Republicans.

Beyond Kingston's own lobbying efforts, Republicans might be hesitant to change the map too much, for fear of spreading themselves overly thin. If they could draw a really safe district for Scott and keep two of four south Georgia districts (along with Kingston's seat), many GOP strategists would see that as a victory.

Redistricting expert Michael McDonald of George Mason University questioned how much incentive Republicans have to get too creative with the maps, given they now have their biggest House majority in 60 years.

"It's really going to come down to how safe Republicans feel nationally," McDonald said. "I would bet you if we were sitting in a world where Democrats had a really thin majority in the House, Republicans would roll the dice and split those districts."

The other major change on the map for this round of redistricting is the likely addition of a 14th district. The district is expected to be drawn using some combination of two fast-growing counties just north of Atlanta -- Cherokee and Forsyth.

In order to make room, though, a few changes will need to be made in the Atlanta area. Rep. Tom Price (R) could take on the more Republican areas of metro Atlanta -- Buckhead and Sandy Springs among them.

Rep. John Lewis (D) will likely look to pick up some black precincts from the other two Democrats in metro Atlanta, given that his district is close to losing its majority-black status.

To make up for their losses, Rep. David Scott (D) could pick up some of increasingly Democratic Henry County, while Rep. Hank Johnson (D) could add Democratic areas of Gwinnett County and Rockdale County -- thereby helping Republican Rep.-elect Rob Woodall get a friendlier district.

All in all, Georgia is one of a few big states where Republican control the process but could have difficulty drawing themselves a much better map. GOP strategists have to hope the state is the exception, not the rule, when it comes to the national re-drawing of congressional district lines.

As the redistricting maps turn; next stop Indiana

2011-01-16T21:25:00.003-05:00

Recently, I began to address the oncoming issue of redistricting. A topic being laid out in the Washington Post through the input of Chris Cilliza and Aaron Blake on behalf of the Post's The Fix. First, Texas was covered. Now, the Fix turns to Indiana; a state that saw Democrats slip further in terms of seats and control in the state.

As presented:

Rep. Joe Donnelly was one of the cardiac kids on Nov. 2 -- a real survivor in a very tough race. But the Indiana Democrat's toughest campaign is probably ahead of him.

That's because while Donnelly was winning reelection by a narrow margin over state Rep. Jackie Walorski (R), his fellow Indiana Democrats were getting destroyed. Just two years after the state shocked the political world by supporting President Obama, it has returned to its red roots, Republicans control redistricting, and Donnelly might pay the price by getting drawn out of a home.

Indiana Democrats had five of the state's nine congressional districts this cycle. They lost two of them in the election, and now Republicans have the power to yank at least one more seat thanks to their control of the drawing of new districts.

With the state very likely to keep its current total of nine districts, priority No. 1 for Republicans will be shoring up a pair of southern Indiana districts that have given them trouble in recent years -- the ones just taken from Democrats by GOP Reps.-elect Larry Bucshon and Todd Young. Beyond that, though, Donnelly is squarely in the crosshairs.

All three of those districts were made Democrat-friendly when that party controlled redistricting in 2001. They drew more liberal areas into all three, adding Terre Haute into what will now be (currently is) Bucshon's district and Bloomington into what will now be (currently is) Young's. They also moved Michigan City and Kokomo -- where Obama happens to be today(last November)-- into what became Donnelly's district in the north.

Republicans can now undo those changes and move to shore up Bucshon and Young. The question is whether they want to go further than that.

By adding all of Michigan City back to Rep. Pete Visclosky's (D) district, they would be making Donnelly's seat more winnable but still very competitive. If they really want to push the envelope, though, they could try to stretch the district further east, incorporating its current base in Gary with Michigan City and, further east, South Bend. South Bend, as at happens, is Donnelly's base.

Donnelly would effectively be left with a choice between running for reelection or challenging Visclosky in a primary.

Republicans could make Donnelly's current district pretty uninhabitable by borrowing heavily Republican Elkhart and Kosciusko counties from the neighboring 3rd district and using them to replace the population from Michigan City/South Bend.

A Democratic strategist who does a lot of work in Indiana said Donnelly will likely run wherever South Bend is.

"South Bend is his base, and St. Joe is his home, and if they did that, I would guess that's where he would run, though I'm sure he would take a hard look at the new 2nd district as well," the source said.

It's not yet clear whether Republicans could draw such a map or whether Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) would approve it. Daniels has hinted that he wouldn't approve an overly ambitious gerrymander, which may give Republicans pause in pushing things too far.

The other area where Republicans could expand their ranks is even more unlikely. They could, in theory, divide up Rep. Andre Carson's (D-Ind.) Indianapolis-based 7th district among the three GOP districts emanating from the Indianapolis suburbs -- the 4th, 5th and 6th districts.

But there are a few problems with this. One is that, even though the district is not majority black and not protected by the Voting Rights Act, there is a heavy black population that has elected an African-American member of Congress. Redistricting the state's lone black congressman out of office could lead to a backlash and be a PR nightmare for Republicans.

The other risk is that the GOP would be diluting its vote in any of the three districts surrounding Indianapolis. They're pretty safe right now, but adding large new populations could change that, and the members likely wouldn't be too happy about taking on so much Democratic territory.

Speaking of keeping their current members happy -- shoring up Bucshon and Young is doable, but it's not terribly easy.

That's because it's basically impossible to get rid of Evansville from Bucshon's district, and besides getting rid of Terre Haute, the district would likely be adding GOP territory from Young's district, which would have to be replaced elsewhere.

Young, meanwhile, will want to get rid of some of the more liberal precincts in Bloomington. But that's also his hometown, so he'll probably want to keep some as well. In order to make up for population lost in Bloomington and the counties transferred west to Bucshon's district, Young would probably have to take on some counties close to Cincinnati, which would make his district span the Indianapolis, Louisville and Cincinnati media markets, making for a very expensive district for Democrats to go after.

If Republicans could find a way to do it all successfully, though, they could effectively reduce the number of Democratic seats in the state to one or two out of nine -- a very strong gerrymander in a state that, as we've mentioned, went for Obama in 2008.

Given how aggressive Democrats were in 2001, turnabout could be fair play now that Republicans are in charge, noted David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.

"This is very aggressive map," Wasserman said, noting that "in 2001, had Republicans been in control, they might have broken up the 7th district in Indianapolis."

Republicans have lots of flexibility with the congressional map, given that four of their six seats will be held by freshmen who don't necessarily have lots of clout with party leaders. (It's interesting to note that one of the freshmen, Rep.-elect Todd Rokita, as secretary of state actually clashed with the state legislature over gerrymandering).

Beyond those four members, the other two GOPers -- Reps. Mike Pence and Dan Burton -- are considered potential retirees. Pence is weighing a presidential or gubernatorial campaign, while Burton is getting on in age and has faced some very tough primaries in recent years. If either or both of them step aside, it would give the GOP license to really mess with the new district lines.

As we discussed last week when we dissected Texas (the two were written a week apart in November), there are states where the GOP is already stretched so far that adding new winnable districts will be difficult. Indiana will not be one of them.

College Football Week 16/Post-Bowl Game Rankings

2011-01-11T22:47:00.004-05:00

TOP 25 (Week 16/Post-Bowl Ranking/Final Rankings)
Rank(last week)

1)(2) Auburn (14-0)
2)(3) TCU (13-0)
3)(1) Oregon (13-1)
4)(5) Stanford (12-1)
5)(6) Ohio State (12-1)
6)(10) LSU (11-2)
7)(4) Wisconsin (11-2)
8)(11) Oklahoma (12-2)
9)(14) Alabama (10-3)
10)(9) Boise State (12-1)
11)(15) Nevada (13-1)
12)(19) Oklahoma State (11-2)
13)(8) Arkansas (10-3)
14)(7) Michigan State (11-2)
15)(12) Virginia Tech (11-3)
16)(22) Mississippi State (9-4)
17)(21) Florida State (10-4)
18)(13) Missouri (10-3)
19)(16) Nebraska (10-4)
20)(18) Texas A&M (9-4)
21)(17) South Carolina (9-5)
22)(NR) UCF (11-3)
23)(20) Utah (10-3)
24)(NR) North Carolina State (9-4)
25)(NR) Maryland (9-4)

Dropping out of the polls: West Virginia, Hawaii, Connecticut

As the redistricting maps turn; first stop Texas

2011-01-03T22:04:00.006-05:00

The calendar flips to 2011 and around the country the heated discussions over redistricting will be starting up. Each decade, states are pressed with 1)redrawing their legislative (or state) maps and 2) their congressional (or national) maps. Generally, the business of legislative maps are addressed first if a state happens to have an off year set of elections like New Jersey or Louisiana in 2011. However, as a new decade starts; all 50 states must decide how populations have shifted, which states grew in population and which ones shrunk, and finalize a new map in early 2012 in anticipation for the midterm/presidential election depending on the type of year it happens to be every ten years. For instance, 2002 was a midterm election year while 1992 was a presidential election year. Based on consistent elections, every 20 years it falls on a presidential election year and the same goes for midterm election years.

With the spirit of redistricting in mind, I came across a piece by the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza/Aaron Blake and the Fix political blog posted on the newspaper's site. Cillizza is embarking on a journey, so to speak, around the country addressing redistricting in blue states, red states, and purple states. The impacts of redistricting, as have shown in the past; could influence elections in a given state for the next ten years.

To begin their assessment, Cillizza/Blake began with Texas. A state that will gain congressional seats in 2012 and was at the center of crafty redistricting led by then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.

As Cillizza outlines about Texas:

Republicans have a massive advantage when it comes to control over the coming redistricting process. But after their equally large gains in the House earlier this month, adding winnable districts to the map isn't quite so easy.

Case in point: Texas.

Texas is the biggest state where Republicans hold the governor's mansion and both chambers of the state legislature, a trifecta that allows them total control of the redistricting process.

And, the Lone Star State is set to add three or four seats to its current 32, meaning that the district lines drawn next year will pave the way for at least three or four new members of Congress.

All of that suggests plenty of opportunity for Republicans to add to their ranks.

But it's not that simple. In fact, Republicans acknowledge that the realities of the current map and the Voting Rights Act mean all but one -- or maybe two -- of those new seats are likely to be Democratic-leaning districts where Hispanics hold the majority. And Republican efforts to shore up the their current members could prove difficult in a few key cases.

The question for Texas Republicans, says redistricting expert Michael McDonald of George Mason University, is how aggressive they want to be in adding districts where they have a legitimate chance at victory, and how much they want to shore up their current members.

"Republicans will likely be locking in their gains rather than expanding the map dramatically," McDonald said. "They don't want to get into a legal battle, because that could unravel their map."

Translation: Republicans are unlikely to grow their advantage in the state's congressional delegation, even though they will have total control of the line-drawing process.

Here's why.

Should Republican Blake Farenthold hold his lead on Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D-Texas) after a recount (written in November a couple weeks after the midterm elections and before Farenthold did win), Republicans will hold 23 of the state's 32 congressional districts. The remaining Democratic-held districts are all pretty blue, making it hard to alter them and make them winnable for Republicans.

(Remember that Texas was the sight of a re-redistricting led by then Rep. Tom DeLay in the middle of the last decade that led to the defeat of the likes of Max Sandlin, Martin Frost and Charlie Stenholm -- all Democrats representing swing territory.)

That means any GOP gains are likely going to have to come from the new districts the state is gaining. The problem for Republicans is that the vast majority of the population growth that has occurred over the last decade in Texas has been minority populations -- mostly Hispanics -- who tend to vote Democratic.

The Voting Rights Act requires that there must be a "majority-minority" district -- one that includes a majority of non-whites -- in any area where a "reasonably compact" district can be drawn. And don't forget: the enforcement of this rule will be done by a Democratic-led Justice Department, unlike the last round.

The major population growth has occurred mostly in the three major metropolitan areas: Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. Two of the state's four new districts are likely to be majority-minority seats in these areas while a third could come in heavily Hispanic South Texas.

Republicans are likely to be able to draw at least one additional GOP district, probably somewhere south of Dallas and north of San Antonio -- an area that has also experienced significant population growth.

(A great map of which districts have gained or lost population since 2000 can be found here, courtesy of the Texas Legislative Council.)

Complicating matters somewhat for the GOP are the elections of Farenthold and Rep.-elect Quico Canseco (R), who both appear to have won majority Hispanic districts earlier this month. Normally, Republicans would look to shore up members representing such tough districts, but moving the lines in either Farenthold's Corpus Christi-based district or Canseco's district along the Rio Grande could prove difficult, as both are protected under the Voting Rights Act, which makes it much more difficult to shrink the minority vote in any way.

And when it comes down to it, Canseco and Farenthold would be low-ranking freshman members who establishment Republicans weren't all that high on the begin with, so it's unlikely the party would go to great lengths to save them.

Who might Republican line-drawers spend their time shoring up?

Rep. Pete Sessions's (R-Texas) Dallas district has trended more and more Democratic in recent years and is now less than 45 percent white. An easy fix would be for the GOP to pull the heavily minority precincts out of Sessions' district and add them to new a majority-Hispanic district, thereby giving him a safer district.

Republicans could try to do the same with Reps. John Culberson (R) and Michael McCaul (R) in the Houston area. Both have been targeted by Democrats in recent years, and their districts have added more than 300,000 people to their populations since the last census, which means changes will need to be made. Look for a potential majority-minority district to be created, moving Culberson and McCaul into more Republican areas.

Canseco's district is the biggest in the state, stretching all the way from the Rio Grande Valley at the very southern tip of Texas to the El Paso area in the west. But most of the population comes from the GOP-leaning San Antonio suburbs in Bexar County. Republicans could add a new majority-minority district south of San Antonio and then try to create a friendlier district for Canseco by giving him more of Bexar County and handing the more rural, Hispanic parts of his district to Rep. Henry Cuellar (D).

That new South Texas district could also help Farenthold by allowing him to reach up the Gulf Coast into more GOP friendly areas, while also drawing in the more Republican areas of Rep. Ruben Hinojosa's (D) district to the west.

But by doing either or both, Republicans might be diluting two majority-minority districts and not creating enough new ones to make up for it. Given the Hispanic population growth in the area, Democrats could have a case that the minority vote is being undercut.

Though most areas of the state have experienced population growth, there are a few that have lost population. North Texas districts held by Reps. Mac Thornberry (R) and Randy Neugebauer (R) will have to grow a bit, but there is more than enough growth in Rep. Kay Granger's (R) district west of Dallas to give to those two members and keep them on safe political ground.

When redistricting comes, there is often the question of retirements as well. Rep. Ralph Hall (R) is the oldest member of Congress, at 87, and his district will need to shrink after gaining more than 100,000 people. Nearby Rep. Sam Johnson (R), who isn't far behind at 80, saw his district grow even more than that.

Longtime incumbents generally don't like their districts to be touched (unless they're made safer), so any retirements could free up some areas for a more (ahem) creative gerrymander.

All of it adds up to one of the most uncertain redistricting rounds in the country, and also one of the most vital. Legal action is a foregone conclusion.

"I think it's inevitable," said election lawyer Gerald Hebert, who represented Texas Democrats in their battle against DeLay's 2003 redistricting plan. "The stakes are too high to avoid fighting for every district."

From Election and Lincoln's Victory to the End of the Union

2011-01-02T21:59:00.004-05:00

150 years ago Americans were not just welcoming a new year, but an uncertain future. The election in November 1860 of Abraham Lincoln to the presidency had left the country in limbo and the South on the doorstep of secession. The New York Times present a vivid picture of the mood of the country at the time and the road from Lincoln's victory to the grim picture and future of the country.

The trail painted by Ted Widmer:

NOV. 7, 1860 Immediately after Lincoln was elected, Americans from all walks of life wrote to their president-elect to express their feelings about where the country was headed. These letters present a remarkable documentary portrait of a nation at a crossroads.

— TED WIDMER, from “Lincoln’s Mailbag”

NOV. 9-15, 1860 The day after Lincoln’s election, revolutionary fever breaks out in South Carolina. Nearly all of the state’s federal officials resign, and the state legislature speedily passes a bill authorizing a state convention to meet on Dec. 20 to consider, and if it desires, to authorize, secession. In the Deep South, where the idea of disunion is taken most seriously, three main groups of secessionists can be identified. There are those who are talking about talking; those who are talking about walking; and those who have already stopped talking and started walking. South Carolina is the home of the ultras, men like William Yancey and Robert Barnwell Rhett, and they all belong to the third group. For two decades Yancey and Rhett have shouted secession whenever so much as an ominous rain cloud drifted down from the North. Lately, however, they have been joined by men of a different sort, prominent men of wealth and influence, grandees who heretofore have disdained agitation. This past week, these men succeeded in inflaming passions that might well have been safely jawed to death.

— JAMIE MALANOWSKI, from “A Superabundance of Velocity”

NOV. 16, 1860 On fine afternoons that week, throngs of strollers promenaded on Canal Street in New Orleans. The thoroughfare, one newspaper reported, “was crowded with an unusually large and brilliant array of the beauty of our city — the stately matrons and lovely damsels of the South. What gave peculiar interest to this grand display of beauty, grace and elegance, was the exhibition of blue [secessionist] cockades worn on the shoulders of nearly all the ladies who appeared in public. All our ladies are for the South, and for resistance to the aggressions, outrage and insult of an abolition dynasty. No man will merit their favor who is not ready to sacrifice everything for that cause.”

— ADAM GOODHEART, from “Female Partisans”

NOV. 23, 1860 Between his election and his inauguration, Lincoln withdrew into intractable official silence, even as the union crumbled. Lincoln’s approach was very much intentional. Saying nothing, he believed, did the least damage to his fragile winning coalition of moderate Westerners and abolitionist Easterners — a coalition that yet might be called upon to resist rebellion by force. He was “not unmindful of the uneasiness which may exist in many parts of the country,” he privately conceded. But “nothing is to be gained by fawning around the ‘respectable scoundrels’ who got it up.”

— HAROLD HOLZER, from “The Sound of Lincoln’s Silence”

NOV. 25, 1860 The story of how Lincoln decided to let his chin whiskers sprout has been retold so many times that it’s almost legendary: Grace Bedell, an 11-year-old in upstate New York, wrote him a letter a few weeks before the election. “I have got four brothers,” she told the Republican candidate, “and part of them will vote for you anyway and if you let your whiskers grow I will try and get the rest of them to vote for you. You would look a great deal better, for your face is so thin. All the ladies like whiskers and they would tease their husbands to vote for you and then you would be president.” Lincoln replied: “As to the whiskers, having never worn any, do you not think people would call it a piece of silly affectation if I were to begin it now?” Just days after his election, though, he made up his mind. “Billy,” he supposedly told his barber, “let’s give them a chance to grow.”

— ADAM GOODHEART, from “Lincoln: A Beard Is Born”

NOV. 23-29, 1860 President James Buchanan this week changed his tune, after receiving a request for reinforcements from Maj. Robert Anderson, his newly appointed commander of the three federal installations — Fort Moultrie, Fort Sumter and Castle Pinckney — in Charleston. Assessing the situation — the general secession fever, the evidently vulnerable condition of the dilapidated Moultrie, the threatening presence of the harbor hoodlums and wharf rats who menace the soldiers as they go about their duties, the mysterious boats full of armed men that prowl the harbor at night — Anderson implored Washington for more men. “The storm may break upon us at any moment,” he told the administration. “The garrison is so weak as to invite an attack.” Buchanan ordered the secretary of war, John Floyd, to send more troops. Floyd, the former governor of Virginia who is, in turns, pro-union, pro-slavery and an appeaser of the secessionists, has ignored the order, for although he wishes to protect the troops, he feels sending reinforcements would provoke violence, which of course would be illegal, although secession is South Carolina’s right.

— JAMIE MALANOWSKI, from “Off the Record, Behind the Scenes”

NOV. 30, 1860 The knock came after dark. Hastening to answer it, the old Quaker found a familiar figure in the doorway: a dark-skinned woman, barely five feet tall, with a kerchief wrapped around her head. Five others followed her: a man and woman, two little girls and, cradled in a basket, the swaddled form of a tiny infant, uncannily silent and still. As politicians throughout the country debated secession and young men drilled for war, Harriet Tubman had been plotting a mission into the heart of slave territory. The group had come from the Eastern Shore of Maryland, but even here, in Wilmington, Del., it was not yet out of danger: Delaware was still officially a slave state. But at last, on the night of Nov. 30, she reached the house of the elderly Quaker, Thomas Garrett, a leading Underground Railroad “conductor” who would smuggle the Ennals family to relative safety in Philadelphia.

— ADAM GOODHEART, from “Moses’ Last Exodus”

DEC. 19, 1860 “Today it is hoped we shall get the old Lady South Carolina out of the crowd without damaging her hoops or tearing her dress,” wrote the planter John S. Palmer to his wife. The following afternoon, Palmer and other delegates who had assembled in the South Carolina city voted 169 to 0 for secession. That evening thousands flocked to Institute Hall in downtown Charleston to witness the formal signing of the “Ordinance of Secession.” Afterward “cannon were fired,” reported The Charleston Mercury, “and bright triumph was depicted on every countenance.” On this Dec. 20, exactly 150 years later, Confederate enthusiasts sought to relive the festivities with an elaborate Secession Gala. Three hundred celebrants — dozens decked out like cavalier planters and Lady South Carolina — packed Charleston’s Gaillard Auditorium to celebrate the fateful vote. One could almost be forgiven for thinking the whole town had gone back in time.

— BLAIN ROBERTS and ETHAN J. KYTLE, from “Dancing Around History”

DEC. 26, 1860 The rowers strained at their oars, gasping with exertion, their breath visible in the chill night air of Charleston Harbor. By good fortune, the water lay almost flat, with just the slightest rolling swell, and each pull drew them several lengths farther on. None of those men knew that their brief but perilous transit would end up changing American history. Their only thought was of swiftly and silently reaching their destination, barely a mile across the channel: Fort Sumter. From the ramparts of Sumter a signal gun rang out, its sharp crack echoing across the water. The detachment back at Fort Moultrie would know that their comrades had arrived at their destination. As for the secessionists over in Charleston, they would soon awaken to a very unpleasant surprise. “They must have looked upon us as a mouse to play with and eat up at leisure,” one of the Union officers gloated. “But we gave the cat the slip, however, and are now safe in our hole.” At the two forts, men labored through the night, bracing for the fast-approaching moment when that startled cat would unsheathe its claws. Midnight passed and dawn approached: one of the last days in a waning year.

— ADAM GOODHEART, from “The Night Escape”

It seemed that an attack on Fort Sumner would be almost certain.

The Confused American Voter

2010-12-09T00:07:00.004-05:00

A "Slate" article today caught my eye. As 2006, 2008, and now 2010 show; American voters are fickle, but also uncertain when it comes to what exactly they want. They want cuts, but not cuts to their Social Security or Medicare. They might be okay with tax hikes; as long as they don't have to pay a lot more. They are often not sure whether a policy was passed during the latter stages of the Bush administration or the early stages of the Obama administration (i.e. TARP). All and all, the confused electorate is causing elected officials a good deal of worry especially if they might be challenged in a primary in 2012. Annie Lowry's article paints a picture of an American voter that is dazed and confused. A state that makes it hard for politicians to know if the electorate wants choice A or B cause one day they want A and the next they want B.

Now for a trip through the mindset of America's current electorate at large:

Tax cuts, unemployment benefits, business uncertainty, rising gas prices, another dip in housing prices, joblessness, debt, holiday shopping: These are the issues at the forefront of the polled American's mind. And all of this economic turmoil has left the polled American worried—worried and confused.

Money troubles rank first, by a huge margin, on the polled American's list of concerns. Granted, her income has improved a bit of late, but it has failed to increase meaningfully in real terms in more than a decade, and her finances have worsened year-on-year. She is earning just shy of $50,000 annually—and, as money really does buy happiness, up to a point, she would breathe easier if she were taking home fatter paychecks. She is worried about paying the rent. She is worried about the country's yawning deficit. She is worried about America's lack of jobs. She is worried about a double-dip recession. She doesn't even want to think about her retirement. For all those reasons, this holiday season, she will be more judicious about using her credit cards—she's been abusing them lately—and gift-shopping in general.

Along with the polled American's personal finances, taxes loom large in his mind. He has, somewhat uncharacteristically, followed the tax fight in Washington closely. He has no idea the Obama administration gave him a huge tax break in 2009. Still, he is firm in his conviction that he does not want his income taxes to go up this year, deficit be damned, and would not mind it at all if Congress hiked them for billionaires. So what is he making of the recent tax compromise, or third stimulus? (He tends to forget about the first one.) It's the $64,000 question, in Washington at least. And early signs are that he likes it, on balance. He supports the two-year tax-cut extension, if not the compromise for the fat cats, and supports the other measures contained within it, like the unemployment benefits.

But the polled American is not sure whether the government should be doing so much to aid the economy in the first place. And, for her, all bets are off if the tax compromise becomes known as Stimulus 3.0 (or 2.0). She barely liked the 2009 stimulus when Congress passed it, and she certainly does not like it now. (The financial regulatory reform bill? She's made her peace with that.) Yet, in an enduring example of the polled American's propensity for containing multitudes, she likes virtually all of the elements of stimulus, such as the tax breaks, unemployment insurance, infrastructure investment, and bolstered food stamps—a case of the parts besting the sum, apparently. And she thinks the country needs more of those provisions. She also supports an increase in the minimum wage.

At the same time, the polled American is concerned about Washington's yearly deficits and the bloated national debt. He believes it is "crucial" for politicians to tackle those issues. But he does not think they are the most important thing. When you ask him to rank his concerns, he says that immediate economic problems are more pressing than longer-term ones. (The polled American tends to discount the future, though.)

So how does the polled American think we should tackle the deficit issue? He knows that programs need cuts—tax hikes alone can't, and shouldn't, pull the country out of this mess. But he wants Washington to leave Social Security and Medicare well enough alone. And he hesitates to bring the ax to energy, health, or education programs. That said, he supports several provisions proposed by the president's debt commission—like shrinking the federal workforce, cutting federal salaries, closing overseas bases, and ending the tax deduction on home mortgage interest. And one program to really trim is America's generous foreign aid. The polled American thinks the government ships a quarter of our budget overseas, and thinks we should spend only $1 of every $10 helping out other nations. (In reality, the foreign aid amounts to less than 1 percent of the federal budget.)

One thing the polled American does not think the country needs is more bailouts. He hates bailouts. He wishes Barack Obama—it was him, right?—had not given all those bankers all that cash. They didn't need it. He's not big on those Timothy Geithner or Ben Bernanke cats, either, even if he does trust them on the economy more than you might think. He despises the Federal Reserve, even more than he hates the IRS. He thinks it's the Fed that needs auditing, though that might be because he hates the word federal. Those federal workers, for instance? He does not like them. He thinks they are overpaid and probably less qualified than private-sector workers. (He does love astronauts, though, and thinks we should send them to Mars.)

The polled American tends to think little of Congress and is lukewarm at best on the White House. Of late, she has reassessed the presidency of George W. Bush—and it looks pretty good compared with the Obama administration. (All in all, she likes Kennedy the best and Nixon the worst, as usual.) She can't shake the worry that Barack Obama is secretly a Muslim, even if she knows better. Then again, when asked by the pollmeisters, she tends not to be perfectly sure whether the sun revolves around the Earth, or the other way around.

Taking the long view, the polled American remains worried. She believes China has the world's strongest economy now. But despite her fears, the polled American remains characteristically sunny. Things are bad now, she says. But she believes the American Dream exists. She thinks she might even be living it. One way or another, she definitely thinks it is possible, with hard work more so than luck. Just don't ask her how to do it.

College Football Week 15/Pre-Bowl Games Power Rankings

2010-12-06T20:56:00.005-05:00

The fourteenth week provided the final games of the "regular season" and Oregon and Auburn emerge from the season's brutal stretch poised to face off for the national title.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 15/bowl season)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Oregon
2)(2) Auburn
3)(3) TCU
4)(4) Wisconsin
5)(5) Stanford
6)(6) Ohio State
7)(7) Michigan State
8)(8) Arkansas
9)(9) Boise State
10)(10) LSU
11)(11) Oklahoma
12)(12) Virginia Tech
13)(14) Missouri
14)(15) Alabama
15)(16) Nevada
16)(17) Nebraska
17)(13) South Carolina
18)(18) Texas A&M
19)(19) Oklahoma State
20)(20) Utah
21)(22) Mississippi State
22)(23) West Virginia
23)(NR) Hawaii
24)(21) Florida State
25)(NR) Connecticut

Dropped out of the top 25: Northern Illinois, Arizona

College Football Week 14 Power Rankings

2010-11-29T21:27:00.009-05:00

The thirteenth week provided big hits and big finishes. The dust settled with one of the four unbeatens, Boise State, falling in overtime to Nevada after a missed field goal in both the fourth quarter and overtime. TCU might the third wheel as Oregon and Auburn now have the inside track to the BCS title game.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 14)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Oregon: at Oregon State
2)(3) Auburn: vs #13 South Carolina (SEC Title Game)
3)(4) TCU: IDLE
4)(6) Wisconsin: IDLE
5)(7) Stanford: IDLE
6)(8) Ohio State: IDLE
7)(11) Michigan State: IDLE
8)(12) Arkansas: IDLE
9)(2) Boise State: vs Utah State
10)(5) LSU: IDLE
11)(13) Oklahoma: vs #17 Nebraska (Big 12 Title Game)
12)(14) Virginia Tech: vs #21 Florida State (ACC Title Game)
13)(15) South Carolina: at #2 Auburn (SEC Title Game)
14)(16) Missouri: IDLE
15)(9) Alabama: IDLE
16)(19) Nevada: at Louisiana Tech
17)(17) Nebraska: vs #11 Oklahoma (Big 12 Title Game)
18)(18) Texas A&M: IDLE
19)(12) Oklahoma State: IDLE
20)(21) Utah: IDLE
21)(22) Florida State: vs #12 Virginia Tech (ACC Title Game)
22)(25) Mississippi State: IDLE
23)(NR) Northern Illinois: at Miami (OH)
24)(20) Arizona: vs Arizona State
25)(NR) West Virginia: vs Rutgers

Dropped out of the top 25: North Carolina State, Iowa

Are GOP focused on economy...or social issues?

2010-11-22T21:13:00.003-05:00

If one were to gauge the mood of the electorate this year, beyond the feeling of apathy for politics as usual; most would say that the economy was the most important issue. However, if one were to listen and I mean really listen to some campaigns and speeches; you would hear and see several candidates more concerned with other issues and areas. If you heard many Tea Party candidates talk like a Sharon Angle or Christine O'Donnell, you would quickly see that their social stances are far right of the majority of middle America aka Independents. Several Independents flipped from voting Democrat in 2008 to Republican in 2010 mainly due to the economy and jobs and the lack of major positive changes. Nonetheless, that did deter several conservative or far right candidates from focusing on abortion, Medicare, unions, or unemployment benefits. Among the right or base of the Republican Party there seems to be a disdain for the idea of social programs that can be viewed as government hand-outs or freebies if one were to use the scope used by such individuals.

The unrest with the economy drove the pessimistic electorate and lo and behold, the Republicans were able to not only reclaim the House majority, but picked up 20 more seats than needed to regain that majority. The victory was the biggest in a midterm election in 70 years. What the electorate in many areas that can be considered swing districts or potential battlegrounds did not realize was that they were blindly choosing the alternative. Many voters heard the social conservative stances of several candidates. Some agreed with them while others chose to pretend they did not hear the candidates' stances and focused more on what the candidate might do for the economic situation. Essentially, social conservatives shielded their controversial opinions or goals with a bad economy. They voiced to voters that the election was about the economy and candidates should not be largely criticized on their social stances since the electorate needed to shift the leadership and control in Congress to potentially shift and upgrade the economic climate.

The effects are going to be felt beyond Capitol Hill and Washington. Republicans not only made gains in both houses of Congress, but picked up multiple governor's mansions in key presidential states like Pennsylvania and Ohio while maintaining power in Florida by a razor thin majority. Furthermore, in states like Wisconsin, the power not shifted with governors, but many state legislatures also flipped from Democrat to Republican. What that all means is not only will the U.S. House seem a more conservative agenda being crafted, but in states with Republican control in both the executive and legislative branches; there could be dramatic changes ahead if party officials get their way.

Thus, the table is now set for what could be a rocky two years as Republicans are in position to not only say "no", but govern at the state and national level. And, they will largely govern based on social issues early as opposed to what they said they were running on: fixing the economy. It will probably not take too long before key Democratic achievements like the Affordable Care Act will be targeted. If one were to take a snapshot of the mood of the electorate two weeks ago, they would see six in ten voters voting with the economic recession as their primary concern. Beyond the often debated and talked about health care reform, no other social matter registered more than a minor blip on the electoral radar this year.

However, states will see their Republican governors and Republican state legislatures look to slow down the implementation of aspects of health care reform. Moreover, whether it be preventing funding for clinics that provide care to women including abortions or slow down equal rights progress in some states that involves gay marriage, conservative changes are ahead.

To put the shifts and changes into perspective:

Before the midterm elections, Democrats controlled 27 state legislatures outright. Republicans were in charge in 14 states, and eight states were split. (Nebraska, which has a single legislative chamber, is officially nonpartisan). Today, Republicans control 26 state legislatures, Democrats 17, and five have split control. In New York, officials are still determining who is in charge in the state Senate. Republicans control more legislatures than they have since 1952.

Millions and billions were poured into races to elect conservative candidates with the hopes of a more conservative agenda being implemented at the state level and potentially at various levels at the national level. Groups led by individuals like the Koch brothers and Karl Rove did not necessarily lead a Republican revolution ala Ronald Reagan or Newt Gingrich, but something much further right that speaks to the conservative wing having their own radical social agenda that they have accused President Obama and the Democrats of during the last two years.

Also, just as some Democrats misinterpreted 2008 as a reason to govern with little restrain; expect Republicans to misjudge the election as a mandate for them when many Democratic and Independent voters voted Republican because they saw them as the less of two evils in a given race. Liberals are bracing themselves for battles and a conservative social agenda that might be openly accepted in some states, but could face public backlash in others.

It will be a balancing act as one scans the country to see which Republicans act cautiously in order to not lose control in two years and which ones roll the dice with a mandate that does not exist and tune out the same voters they complained Democrats were ignoring.

College Football Week 13 Power Rankings

2010-11-22T00:13:00.003-05:00

The twelfth week provided a few top 25 battles with little major changes to the national title picture. The top for the most held fort with only Nebraska dropping a field goal battle to rising Texas A&M.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 13)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Oregon: vs #20 Arizona
2)(2) Boise State: at #19 Nevada
3)(3) Auburn: at #9 Alabama
4)(4) TCU: at New Mexico
5)(5) LSU: at #11 Arkansas
6)(6) Wisconsin: vs Northwestern
7)(7) Stanford: vs Oregon State
8)(8) Ohio State: vs Michigan
9)(9) Alabama: vs #3 Auburn
10)(11) Michigan State: at Penn State
11)(12) Arkansas: vs #5 LSU
12)(13) Oklahoma State: vs #13 Oklahoma
13)(14) Oklahoma: at #12 Oklahoma State
14)(15) Virginia Tech: vs Virginia
15)(16) South Carolina: at Clemson
16)(17) Missouri: vs Kansas
17)(10) Nebraska: vs Colorado
18)(21) Texas A&M: at Texas
19)(18) Nevada: vs #2 Boise State
20)(22) Arizona: at #1 Oregon
21)(24) Utah: vs BYU
22)(NR) Florida State: vs Florida
23)(NR) North Carolina State: at Maryland
24)(23) Iowa: at Minnesota
25)(25) Mississippi State: at Mississippi

Dropped out of the top 25: USC, Miami (FL)

College Football Week 12 Power Rankings

2010-11-15T23:16:00.005-05:00

The eleventh week did not have a lot of flare, but some battles in the SEC were a highlight of the weekend. As the season nears its end, four teams still remain flawless.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 12)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Oregon: IDLE
2)(2) Boise State: vs Fresno State
3)(4) Auburn: IDLE
4)(3) TCU: IDLE
5)(5) LSU: vs Mississippi
6)(6) Wisconsin: at Michigan
7)(7) Stanford: at California
8)(8) Ohio State: at #23 Iowa
9)(9) Alabama: vs Georgia State
10)(10) Nebraska: at #21 Texas A&M
11)(11) Michigan State: vs Purdue
12)(12) Arkansas: at #25 Mississippi State
13)(13) Oklahoma State: at Kansas
14)(14) Oklahoma: at Baylor
15)(18) Virginia Tech: at #20 Miami (FL)
16)(21) South Carolina: vs Troy
17)(19) Missouri: at Iowa State
18)(22) Nevada: vs New Mexico State
19)(23) USC: at Oregon State
20)(25) Miami (FL): vs #15 Virginia Tech
21)(NR) Texas A&M: vs #10 Nebraska
22)(16) Arizona: IDLE
23)(17) Iowa: vs #8 Ohio State
24)(15) Utah: at San Diego State
25)(20) Mississippi State: vs #12 Arkansas

Dropped out of the top 25: Florida

The next best 5 for Week 12:

Florida State: at Maryland
Florida: vs Appalachian State
North Carolina State: at North Carolina
Northwestern: vs Illinois
Baylor: vs #14 Oklahoma

College Football Week 11 Power Rankings

2010-11-08T21:26:00.004-05:00

The tenth week gave us some big matchups including two top ten battles with #3 TCU taking down #6 Utah and #9 LSU giving #5 Alabama its second loss of the year.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 11)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Oregon: at California
2)(2) Boise State: at Idaho
3)(3) TCU: vs San Diego State
4)(4) Auburn: vs Georgia
5)(9) LSU: LA-Monroe
6)(7) Wisconsin: vs Indiana
7)(12) Stanford: at Arizona State
8)(8) Ohio State: vs Penn State
9)(5) Alabama: vs #20 Mississippi State
10)(10) Nebraska: vs Kansas
11)(16) Michigan State: IDLE
12)(17) Arkansas: vs UTEP
13)(18) Oklahoma State: at Texas
14)(11) Oklahoma: vs Texas Tech
15)(6) Utah: at Notre Dame
16)(13) Arizona: vs #23 USC
17)(15) Iowa: at Northwestern
18)(20) Virginia Tech: at North Carolina
19)(14) Missouri: vs Kansas State
20)(21) Mississippi State: at #9 Alabama
21)(19) South Carolina: at #24 Florida
22)(22) Nevada: at Fresno State
23)(NR) USC: at #16 Arizona
24)(NR) Florida: vs #21 South Carolina
25)(NR) Miami (FL): at Georgia Tech

Dropped out of the top 25: North Carolina State, Baylor, Florida State

The next best 5 for Week 11:

Baylor: vs Texas A&M
Texas A&M: at Baylor
Florida State: vs Clemson
Penn State: at #8 Ohio State
North Carolina: vs #18 Virginia Tech

College Football Week 10 Power Rankings

2010-11-01T22:16:00.004-04:00

The ninth week saw some stability as the top teams held fort in the rankings.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 10)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Oregon: vs Washington
2)(2) Boise State: vs Hawaii
3)(3) TCU: at #6 Utah
4)(4) Auburn: vs Chattanooga
5)(5) Alabama: at #9 LSU
6)(6) Utah: vs #3 TCU
7)(8) Wisconsin: at Purdue
8)(9) Ohio State: IDLE
9)(12) LSU: vs #5 Alabama
10)(15) Nebraska: at Iowa State
11)(11) Oklahoma: at Texas A&M
12)(13) Stanford: vs #13 Arizona
13)(16) Arizona: at #12 Stanford
14)(10) Missouri: at Texas Tech
15)(18) Iowa: at Indiana
16)(7) Michigan State: vs Minnesota
17)(14) Arkansas: at #19 South Carolina
18)(20) Oklahoma State: vs #24 Baylor
19)(19) South Carolina: vs #17 Arkansas
20)(22) Virginia Tech: vs Georgia Tech
21)(23) Mississippi State: IDLE
22)(NR) Nevada: at Idaho
23)(NR) North Carolina State: at Clemson
24)(NR) Baylor: at #18 Oklahoma State
25)(17) Florida State: vs North Carolina State

Dropped out of the top 25: Miami (FL), USC, Florida

The next best 5 for Week 10:

USC: IDLE
Syracuse: vs Louisville
Miami (FL): at Maryland
Florida: at Vanderbilt
Maryland: vs Miami (FL)

College Football Week 9 Preview

2010-10-25T23:31:00.005-04:00

A third week, a third No. 1 falls. Oklahoma was stunned on the road against Missouri as the Tigers landed possibly the biggest win in the program's history.

Looking at the top 5 games I highlighted, I went 3-2 and now am at 30-10 on the year after eight weeks. Arkansas quickly rebounded after being run over by Auburn. While Wisconsin's hard fought victory over Ohio State the week before certainly prepared them for Iowa's gritty play. However, Iowa fell just short and the Badgers might be on the road to the Big Ten title and much more.

In possibly a bigger shootout than expected, Nebraska rebounded by outscoring Oklahoma State, one of the country's highest scoring offenses. That type of performance shows the versatility of the Cornhuskers. That leads me to Missouri, who used crafty offense and key defensive plays to shock Oklahoma. The two Big 12 squads tested each other and Missouri's heart was too much for Oklahoma's talent.

Finally, in another SEC classic; Auburn found another way to win a tough close game as they outlasted LSU. It was as physical as expected and QB Cam Newton continues his rise.

Now on to Week 9 with a bunch of big games.

Games featuring top 25 teams/some that might be interesting:

Thursday, October 28
No. 16 Florida State at North Carolina State: Florida State is continuing to reestablish themselves as a national power. However, NC State is fully capable of shocking the Seminoles at home.

Friday, October 29
West Virginia at Connecticut: This one could ultimately decide the winner of the Big East.

Saturday, October 30
Texas Tech at Texas A&M: This one can either be a big scoring affair or a field goal battle.

No. 1 Auburn at Mississippi: Auburn is the new #1 and the bullseye is now on them. In the SEC, there are no off weeks.

Michigan at Penn State: Both are in the second tier of the Big Ten, but the play of both will be like the two are fighting for a conference title.

And of course, the top 5 games to watch this week.

Top 5:

5) Georgia at Florida: Both are playing below their usual standards. South Carolina seems to be the driver's seat, but the winner could find themselves ready to slide into the top spot in the SEC East if South Carolina falters. This rivalry is usually high paced. The Gators seem to have the slightly better squad this time around. PREDICTION: FLORIDA

4) No. 25 Baylor at Texas: This is a weird reversal of fortunes game. Texas enters as the underdog and are playing at home on top of that. However, they were not favored against a much better Nebraska and shocked and many observers. Baylor is a program on the rise and this could provide a statement for them in the conference. With all that said, Texas will fight, but Baylor does enough to claim a victory that can help build their program. PREDICTION: BAYLOR

3) No. 2 Oregon at No. 24 USC: USC would love to play spoiler for Oregon as they cannot challenge for a national title. The skill players will play fast and provide headaches for the Trojans' defense. The game will be close early, but Oregon's talent will separate the two. PREDICTION: OREGON

2) No. 5 Michigan State at No. 18 Iowa: Michigan State is having one of its best seasons, but a loss on the road to Iowa can trip up their big hopes and dreams this year. Essentially, the Spartans control their own fate in the Big Ten and the right conditions could land them in the national title game. It will be a grind it out type of game. Iowa goes up late before Michigan State sinks an even later dagger. PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE

1)No. 6 Missouri at No. 14 Nebraska: Missouri shocked Oklahoma last week. Now they must refocus to avoid being beaten by Nebraska and having a letdown. The Tigers will be tested just as much again this week by another tough defense. The Cornhuskers have also shown an ability to score a lot too. Missouri will certainly bring their best again, but they will need to build a big advantage to prevent a letdown. However, Nebraska keeps it close and does enough on both sides of the ball late to slide by Missouri. PREDICTION: NEBRASKA

Can Auburn break the trend of No. 1's losing? How will Missouri play this week after beating Oklahoma? The winding road nears November and the big picture will start to look a lot more clear.

College Football Week 9 Power Rankings

2010-10-25T21:26:00.003-04:00

The eighth week featured a few big matchups including #5 Auburn over #7 LSU.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 9)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Oregon: at #24 USC
2)(2) Boise State: vs Louisiana Tech
3)(3) TCU: at UNLV
4)(5) Auburn: at Mississippi
5)(6) Alabama: IDLE
6)(8) Utah: at Air Force
7)(10) Michigan State: at #18 Iowa
8)(11) Wisconsin: IDLE
9)(12) Ohio State: at Minnesota
10)(19) Missouri: at #15 Nebraska
11)(4) Oklahoma: vs Colorado
12)(7) LSU: IDLE
13)(14) Stanford: at Washington
14)(13) Arkansas: vs Vanderbilt
15)(17) Nebraska: vs #10 Missouri
16)(16) Arizona: at UCLA
17)(15) Florida State: at North Carolina State
18)(9) Iowa: vs #7 Michigan State
19)(20) South Carolina: vs Tennessee
20)(18) Oklahoma State: at Kansas State
21)(21) Miami (FL): at Virginia
22)(22) Virginia Tech: IDLE
23)(25) Mississippi State: vs Kentucky
24)(NR) USC: vs #1 Oregon
25)(NR) Florida: IDLE

Dropped out of the top 25: West Virginia, Texas

The next best 5 for Week 9:

Nevada: vs Utah State
Syracuse: at Cincinnati
Michigan: vs Penn State
North Carolina State: vs #17 Florida State
Baylor: at Texas

College Football Week 8 Preview

2010-10-19T21:15:00.005-04:00

One week after Alabama fell as the top team in the nation, Ohio State followed suit by losing to Wisconsin in a smash mouth win for the Badgers. The pressure now falls to Oklahoma to keep that top spot for at least a week.

Looking at the top 5 games I highlighted, I went 3-2 and now am at 27-8 on the year after seven weeks. Florida suffered its third loss as they could not get enough going against Mississippi State as the Bulldogs landed a major victory for their program. Things were also tight in a "minor" Big Ten matchup as Iowa put another dragger in Michigan's season.

As predicted, Texas was able to somehow put the tough losses behind them and shock Nebraska. Nebraska now falls behind Oklahoma in the race for the Big 12's top spot and potential place in the title game. Texas might be able to use this win as momentum.

Speaking of momentum, Ohio State quickly lost any they had as the new number one team. Wisconsin used their biggest advantage: their offensive line and running game to their advantage. They wore out Ohio State and took control by the 4th quarter.

Lastly, Arkansas could not keep up with Auburn in what turned out to be a shootout of sorts with overall 100 points scored between the two team. Auburn QB Cam Newton continued to shine while Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett could not do enough to keep up with Newton.

Now on to Week 8 with a bunch of big games.

The top 5 games to watch this week.

Top 5:

5) Mississippi at No. 23 Arkansas: There is something about SEC games. They tend to be close, feature drama, and a few spectacular plays. The Razorbacks will be hungry to avenge the loss to Auburn. PREDICTION: ARKANSAS

4) No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 15 Iowa: Wisconsin is coming off knocking off No.1 Ohio State. They need to bring the same intensity against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have a good mix on both sides of the ball, but Wisconsin's offensive line and running game should set the tone again. PREDICTION: WISCONSIN

3) No. 16 Nebraska at No. 14 Oklahoma State: This one will feature a very good Nebraska defense against a potent Oklahoma State offense. Which side of the ball sets an early advantage could give themselves the necessary edge needed to win this type of game. Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon will be the top target for the Cornhuskers defense to focus on and how they play him will also go a long way in shaping this one. A couple of big plays separate the Cowboys. PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA STATE

2) No. 1 Oklahoma at No. 11 Missouri: Oklahoma finds themselves in the dreaded #1 spot in the polls. Something that has doomed Alabama and Ohio State in back to back weeks. The Tigers certainly have the talent and should make this one interesting. The Sooners have multiple weapons that will pose problems for the Tigers' defense, who are often underrated. That defense holds up most of the game before folding late. PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA

1) No. 6 LSU at No. 4 Auburn: The SEC once again is in the top matchup spot. This one will have different paces and physical play. Auburn QB Cam Newton will be balanced out by LSU's few big playmakers. Auburn will be in another seesaw match that once again features them doing enough late. PREDICTION: AUBURN

A lot continues to be on the line this week. Oklahoma is looking to avoid being the third #1 team to lose. LSU and Auburn could be battling for crucial positioning in the national title hunt. And, upsets are always on the forecast.

College Football Week 8 Power Rankings

2010-10-18T23:06:00.003-04:00

The seventh week provided us with the second straight week of a #1 falling as Ohio State joined Alabama.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 8)
Rank(last week)
1)(2) Oregon: vs UCLA
2)(3) Boise State: IDLE
3)(4) TCU: vs Air Force
4)(5) Oklahoma: at #19 Missouri
5)(7) Auburn: vs #7 LSU
6)(8) Alabama: at Tennessee
7)(9) LSU: at #5 Auburn
8)(10) Utah: vs Colorado State
9)(13) Iowa: vs #11 Wisconsin
10)(14) Michigan State: at Northwestern
11)(18) Wisconsin: at #9 Iowa
12)(1) Ohio State: vs Purdue
13)(11) Arkansas: vs Mississippi
14)(15) Stanford: vs Washington State
15)(16) Florida State: IDLE
16)(17) Arizona: vs Washington
17)(6) Nebraska: at #18 Oklahoma State
18)(20) Oklahoma State: vs #17 Nebraska
19)(24) Missouri: vs 4 Oklahoma
20)(12) South Carolina: at Vanderbilt
21)(22) Miami (FL): vs North Carolina
22)(NR) Virginia Tech: vs Duke
23)(NR) West Virginia: vs Syracuse
24)(NR) Texas: vs Iowa State
25)(NR) Mississippi State: vs UAB

Dropped out of the top 25: Florida, Nevada, Michigan, Oregon State

The next best 5 for Week 8:

Florida: IDLE
Nevada: IDLE
Michigan: IDLE
USC: IDLE
North Carolina State: IDLE

College Football Week 7 Preview

2010-10-12T23:38:00.004-04:00

After five weeks of seeing a couple top teams fall, the top team in the nation finally dropped in week six. South Carolina sprung the upset over the defending champion Alabama Crimson Tide. They used their run game and turned the defensive tables on Alabama. Ohio State now is poised in the driver's seat with Alabama's fall.

Looking at the top 5 games I highlighted, I went 4-1 and now am at 24-6 on the year after six weeks. Stanford was able to bounce back, but still struggled at times outlasting USC. The same feeling of outlasting their opponent was felt by Michigan State. They did enough when it mattered to get by Michigan. The Wolverines opened the year with a shocking start, but now look to be back around the middle of the pack in the Big Ten.

There was no close, down to the wire feeling in a game that usually has it. Florida State looked like a superior team in Miami as they took down the Hurricanes. However, the SEC restored the tight game factor to close out the day. First, LSU went on the road and was able to use a few key plays to deliver a second loss to the Tim Tebow-less Gators. The mode in Gainesville seems a bit different as they now fall behind the winner of the game of the weekend. That winner was South Carolina, which shocked most out of Tuscaloosa. The Tide seemed to have control of the game at points, but the Gamecocks never gave up and kept fighting. It might a leading contender for game of the year even.

Now on to Week 7 with a bunch of big games.

Games featuring top 25 teams/some that might be interesting:

Saturday, October 16
No. 20 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech: This one has the very good potential to feature lots of scoring.

And of course, the top 5 games to watch this week.

Top 5:

5) Mississippi State at No. 22 Florida: This one could be interesting purely based on Mississippi State's good defensive efforts at times this year. If they can stymie Florida's at times slow offense, they might be able to upset the Gators in the Swamp. The Gators barely survive a surprising nail biter. PREDICTION: FLORIDA

4) No. 15 Iowa at Michigan: The Big House will be a little less excited after a crushing loss to Michigan State, but they can put a wrinkle in Iowa's path to the Big Ten title. It should still be a tough road game for Hawkeyes, but they will do enough like Michigan State did to outlast Michigan's somewhat one dimensional offense. PREDICTION: IOWA

3) Texas at No. 5 Nebraska: Despite the fact that Texas enters with two losses, this one should and will be close. The Cornhuskers are in a very good spot to leap a couple teams to find themselves playing for a national title. That is why the pressure will be high for Nebraska because they should win the Big 12 North, but that is not what you play for Lincoln, NE. Call it a hunch or simple pride, but Texas does enough and forces a couple of big turnovers. PREDICTION: TEXAS

2) No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Wisconsin: Ohio State is the new #1 after Alabama's loss and must beware of their reign only lasting a week. Wisconsin plays smart and tough and their run game wears out the best teams when it gets going. This will be low scoring early and the pace will pick up a bit before slowing down again. The fast pace that could develop after halftime might allow Ohio State QB Tyrelle Pryor to score a couple times. Wisconsin fights back, but falls just short. PREDICTION: OHIO STATE

1) No. 12 Arkansas at No. 7 Auburn: The SEC finds itself once in the game of the week slot. This time Arkansas heads to Auburn. This one should be a track meet with two red hot quarterbacks when they are on. Auburn QB Cam Newton has been more consistent in big moments this year than Arkansas QB Ryan Mallet. The Razorbacks could have and probably should have upset Alabama, but Mallet cost them a win. Newton does a few special things with the ball and puts this one away. PREDICTION: AUBURN

More great action and Ohio State is the prime team on upset alert this week as the top team in the nation.

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

2010-10-12T22:13:00.003-04:00

The top two remain intact while there is some shuffling with the Saints and Packers suffering rough losses. The Chiefs fell to the Colts and there is no more unbeatens after only 5 weeks.

Here is how the rankings stack up for Week 6:

Week 6
Rank (Last week)
1)(1) Baltimore Ravens (4-1): They seem to have their running game back and will duel it out with Pittsburgh for now for bragging rights.
2)(2) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): They return from a break with their quarterback in position to make a run against the league.
3)(5) New York Jets (4-1): Another good game by the defense as QB Mark Sanchez has yet to make a bad mistake.
4)(6) Atlanta Falcons (4-1): They are doing enough of the right things and now find themselves in great position in the NFC South with the Saints sliding.
5)(8) New England Patriots (3-1): They come off the break with a new yet old receiver replacing WR Randy Moss.
6)(9) Indianapolis Colts (3-2): Was not pretty at times, but efficient enough for them.
7)(11) Chicago Bears (4-1): Despite horrid quarterback play, their defense and HB Matt Forte were more than enough.
8)(3) New Orleans Saints (3-2): They must continue to ask where their fast paced offense is.
9)(4) Green Bay Packers (3-2): Things are starting to unravel and injuries are piling up.
10)(10) Kansas City Chiefs (3-1): A tough first loss to swallow, but they kept QB Peyton Manning from throwing a touchdown.
11)(7) Houston Texans (3-2): Their defense looked like they were a shell of their potential selves.
12)(17) Washington Redskins (3-2): This team continues to show some grit and got a big win.
13)(20) Tennessee Titans (3-2): They took advantage of a sloppy Cowboys team.
14)(18) New York Giants (3-2): Another solid defensive game has to have them thinking they can win the NFC East with this style of play.
15)(21) Philadelphia Eagles (3-2): Not bad, but not great in terms of their offensive performance.
16)(14) Miami Dolphins (2-2): They return from a bye with some work to do.
17)(16) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1): They continue to surprise the league by already matching last year's win total.
18)(23) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2): They did what they were supposed to do: beat up on a bad team.
19)(26) Arizona Cardinals (3-2): They found a way to get to QB Drew Brees and steal a big win.
20)(12) Minnesota Vikings (1-3): Another victory taken away by an error by QB Brett Favre despite his second half.
21)(13) Dallas Cowboys (1-3): The panic button might be about to be hit very soon if they don't start playing like a contending team.
22)(15) San Diego Chargers (2-3): The up and down ride for their season continues.
23)(19) Cincinnati Bengals (2-3): They are still missing a few pieces to complete games.
24)(22) Denver Broncos (2-3): They need more production from their running game and defense.
25)(28) Oakland Raiders (2-3): They finally broke the strangle hold the Chargers had on them for 7 years.
26)(24) St. Louis Rams (2-3): QB Sam Bradford has probably loss his top weapon for the season.
27)(25) Seattle Seahawks (2-2): They had a week off and come back with a new weapon at running back.
28)(30) Detroit Lions (1-4): Talk about getting their first win.
29)(27) Cleveland Browns (1-4): Their quarterback situation is banged up and have Pittsburgh ahead.
30)(29) San Francisco 49ers (0-5): More costly mistakes lead to another loss.
31)(31) Carolina Panthers (0-5): Doesn't seem to matter who starts at quarterback, the results are the same.
32)(32) Buffalo Bills (0-5): More of the same as they can't seem to find a way to win.

3 teams remain without a win and two 1-3 squads (Dallas and Minnesota) are set to face up in a big game at this point in the year for both.

A view from a conservative perch

2010-10-11T23:54:00.004-04:00

Sometimes as a moderate or realist, it is tricky to comprehend how certain liberal or conservatives politicians or commentators think. They offer opinions that reflect their ideologies, but are they just the best perspectives for their side? During this chaotic primary season, we have seen base voters especially and most prominently conservative voters choosing candidates that might not be the strongest in a general election. Winning base voters is only half the battle as to win competitive elections, you need to appeal to Independents and even some opposing party voters. House races allow more conservative or more liberal candidates to thrive. But, some House districts do provide a tense matchup and one must monitor how extreme they get with their believes. That is taken further in Senate races, where you definitely have to campaign for votes outside of your base in the majority of races.

So, to allow a little perspective into the conservative mind; I turned to Marc Thiessen and a pair of articles written by Thiessen. Both of Thiessen's articles point to staying true to your ideology despite better party prospects if conservatism is not the only option. Thiessens's opinion has been shared by other conservatives as they will almost certainly the U.S. House back, but their pure ideology stance might cost the Republicans the U.S. Senate; something they are okay with.

The first article by Thiessen spoke of true conservatives in the U.S. Congress. One of the last surprises of the primary season was Christine O'Donnell's victory over Congressman Mike Castle (R-DE-AL) in the Republican primary in Delaware. Her victory was made possible due to much outside support including Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC). Members of the "establishment" were not exactly happy with DeMint's move. However, for those like Thiessen; he was embracing a "true conservative". Someone who does not fall under that label for many like Thiessen is Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Murkowski lost the Republican primary in Alaska to Joe Miller, the Tea Party candidate; but is going to run as an Independent. That decision does not sit well with conservatives who fall more in line with DeMint's thinking and actions. Murkowski lost and that should be reason enough for her to fade into the background.

For conservatives like Thiessen, Murkowski should be attacked the same way DeMint was. She should be viewed as an Independent and not a member of the Republican minority in the U.S. Senate. He points to others like Charlie Crist in Florida doing the same thing and betraying the party for their own personal interests. Thiessen's analysis is part of the hazed view on that perch because Republican primary voters are not the only voters voting in states like Alaska or Florida this November. That is why Murkowski is running: she represents a comprehensive group of the voting electorate while Miller only truly appeals to the conservative base voters that paved the way to his victory. Plus, one must always consider complacency as several Murkowski voters stayed home not giving Miller a chance; the opening he needed to close the gap so fast.

For true conservatives, it is candidates like Murkowski who are dividing the party as opposed to the Tea Party candidates. It has been the Tea Party and their energy at the base of the Republican Party that is giving Republicans the opportunity to regain the U.S. House and/or the U.S. Senate this fall. Thus, when comments regarding Tea Party candidates costing more victories; Thiessen and others find that hard to believe.

It is best to stick to ideologies and principles. That is what leads to Thiessen's second piece. Having a majority without true conservatives is not the desired result for those supporting the conservative movement this year. It would be better to still be the minority with a growing number of conservatives in Congress. Conservatives dedicated to cutting spending and not conducting business as usual. That is what candidates like Castle in Delaware represented. Or what Murkowski represents in Alaska.

As Thiessen sees it, the Tea Party and conservatives around the country are reshaping not only the country in their minds, but reforming the Republican Party. The Republican Party has committed some faults over time that bring about outsider candidates in so many primaries. It is where the energy is driven and at the core of more conservative candidates winning primaries. So are more viable than others, but a few losses are worth it if over the next couple election cycles a conservative majority is elected to the U.S. Congress.

Being in the minority in the Senate is not terrible if there is close to 50/50 membership from both parties. Having more than 40 seats associated with the minority party allows it to filibuster and prevent legislation from being "rammed through". That is why minimal gains is an accepted outcome because more conservatives like a Rand Paul in Kentucky or Marco Rubio in Florida would rein in the Democratic control.

The Olympia Snowes or Susan Collinses are viewed negatively amongst conservatives because they have voted with Democrats in the past. Potentially new senators like Paul or Rubio would be much less likely inclined to flip as easily on matters important to conservatives.

Thiessen views the results of 2010 with primary challengers will force more moderate Republicans to gauge what they do because they could end up like Castle and others falling short in party primaries due to more challenges from the far right.

Ultimately as Thiessen sees it from his perspective:

Bottom line: Positive change in the Senate does not depend on the GOP taking the majority in November. Besides, even if Republicans were to win the House and Senate, President Obama is not likely to respond by declaring "the era of big government is over." The only way to end the era of big government is to elect a majority of fiscal conservatives. If that requires a few election cycles, so be it.

That seems to be what the view from the conservative perch is becoming and is. Democrats tend to bend on their ideologies when necessary while Republicans are only becoming more and more tied to their ideology. It is an all or nothing strategy that Thiessen and others like DeMint are willing to stick to. It might reap some successes or some failures, but it is staying true to their base. That seems to be the ultimate takeaway as the Republican Party is being reformed too much by their far right and conservative base.

College Football Week 7 Power Rankings

2010-10-11T21:19:00.004-04:00

The sixth week gave us a few more top 25 matchups including #18 South Carolina knocking off #1 Alabama as the Tide seek a repeat championship.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 7)
Rank(last week)
1)(2) Ohio State: at #18 Wisconsin
2)(3) Oregon: IDLE
3)(4) Boise State: at San Diego State
4)(5) TCU: vs BYU
5)(6) Oklahoma: vs Iowa State
6)(7) Nebraska: vs Texas
7)(8) Auburn: vs #11 Arkansas
8)(1) Alabama: vs Mississippi
9)(9) LSU: vs McNeese State
10)(10) Utah: vs Wyoming
11)(11) Arkansas: at #7 Auburn
12)(18) South Carolina: at Kentucky
13)(13) Iowa: at #23 Michigan
14)(16) Michigan State: vs Illinois
15)(18) Stanford: IDLE
16)(21) Florida State: vs Boston College
17)(12) Arizona: at Washington State
18)(20) Wisconsin: vs #1 Ohio State
19)(14) Florida: vs Mississippi State
20)(23) Oklahoma State: at Texas Tech
21)(22) Nevada: at Hawaii
22)(15) Miami (FL): at Duke
23)(17) Michigan: vs #13 Iowa
24)(NR) Missouri: at Texas A&M
25)(NR) Oregon State: at Washington

Dropped out of the top 25: West Virginia, Air Force

The next best 5 for Week 7:

West Virginia: vs South Florida
Air Force: at San Diego State
Virginia Tech: vs Wake Forest
Texas: at #6 Nebraska
North Carolina State: IDLE

NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

2010-10-05T21:09:00.002-04:00

Once again there is a shift at the top as Baltimore jumps Pittsburgh after a 17-14 win. The top ten had a bit of shuffle overall with most notably Indianapolis slipping after another loss. The Chiefs remain as the last unbeaten coming off a bye.

Here is how the rankings stack up for Week 5:

Week 5
Rank (Last week)
1)(3) Baltimore Ravens (3-1): They find themselves in a nice position in their division and the league despite not so great play from stars like QB Joe Flacco and HB Ray Rice.
2)(1) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): A tough loss to Baltimore, but they will get back Big Ben and should be a serious threat with that defense.
3)(4) New Orleans Saints (3-1): Another close win has to have them worried about their slow offense.
4)(5) Green Bay Packers (3-1): Their offense has been missing a step without HB Ryan Grant.
5)(6) New York Jets (3-1): Three straight division wins have them in the AFC East driver's seat.
6)(7) Atlanta Falcons (3-1): Close wins show mettle as they struggled early and still won.
7)(9) Houston Texans (3-1): They get LB Brian Cushing back and might be able to make some serious moves in the AFC South.
8)(10) New England Patriots (3-1): They were vastly improved on defense and special teams against the Dolphins largely due to SS Patrick Chung.
9)(2) Indianapolis Colts (2-2): Another tough loss in the division has them at .500.
10)(15) Kansas City Chiefs (3-0): They will get the chance to prove if they are for real against the Colts.
11)(8) Chicago Bears (3-1): The health of QB Jay Cutler might be in jeopardy due to the bad play of the offensive line.
12)(16) Minnesota Vikings (1-2): They need to start picking up some wins despite a tough schedule or face a tough climb out of a deep hole.
13)(17) Dallas Cowboys (1-2): They come off a break and need to pick up where they left off.
14)(11) Miami Dolphins (2-2): Back to back tough losses in the division at home will make the climb to the division crown that much tougher.
15)(19) San Diego Chargers (2-2): They continue to at least rebound big time after a bad loss. They just need to win two in a row now.
16)(18) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1): They have kind of slid by so far, but their schedule will continue to test if they are for real.
17)(22) Washington Redskins (2-2): A nice win for QB Donovan McNabb against his former team.
18)(23) New York Giants (2-2): Their defense looked like their '07 version destroying QB Jay Cutler all night.
19)(12) Cincinnati Bengals (2-2): A sluggish offense needs to be fixed if they are to repeat last year's success.
20)(13) Tennessee Titans (2-2): This team continues to play up and down.
21)(14) Philadelphia Eagles (2-2): The quarterback carousel will continue again.
22)(24) Denver Broncos (2-2): A big day for QB Kyle Orton has this team somewhat back on track.
23)(25) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2): They got a big kick at the end to stun the Colts.
24)(26) St. Louis Rams (2-2): 2 wins in a row can build confidence for the team and its young quarterback.
25)(20) Seattle Seahawks (2-2): Their strangle hold over the Rams has been released.
26)(21) Arizona Cardinals (2-2): They have been beaten badly in losses this year and wins haven't been that good either.
27)(31) Cleveland Browns (1-3): A big victory as they finally finish a game.
28)(27) Oakland Raiders (1-3): Some more predictable mistakes that some injuries aren't helping.
29)(28) San Francisco 49ers (0-4): The only solace they have is their division is not strong.
30)(29) Detroit Lions (0-4): Not enough balance in Motown.
31)(30) Carolina Panthers (0-4): This team looks like they are in disarray; somewhat unusual for them.
32)(32) Buffalo Bills (0-4): They continue their division woes losing 3 games already.

Another top ten matchup this week featuring the 2-2 Colts vs the 3-0 Chiefs. Four teams still don't have a win.

College Football Week 6 Preview

2010-10-04T23:56:00.004-04:00

Intense conference rivalry games highlight the docket last week. Two top ten teams fell out of the top ten largely based on the fact that they were facing a top ten team. Another powerhouse in recent years, Texas, took another tough hit with the loss and eliminated their chances of going back to the national title game barring a crazy two months ahead.

Looking at the top 5 games I highlighted, I went 4-1 and now am at 20-5 on the year after five weeks. Iowa had little trouble at home with Penn State as costly mistakes only contributed to the ease for the Hawkeyes. While in another Big Ten battle, the Michigan State Spartans outlasted the Wisconsin Badgers. It was everything the Iowa-Penn State battle was not. Michigan State looks to be a surprise team this year and both Wisconsin, who just lost to them, and Ohio State, a perennial Big Ten conference winner, know their capabilities. It creates a three team race with Iowa potentially as fourth dark horse in that conference.

And speaking of conference races, for much of the last decade Oklahoma and Texas have jockeyed for the right to be crowned Big 12 conference champions. The winner of the annual Red River Shootout has normally gone onto represent the South division in the conference in the conference title game and most times tends to go a BCS bowl game. Despite Texas' loss before the game, the hype was still high and the game tightened up at multiple occasions before Oklahoma's talent advantage and experience came through when it counted.

Another recent heated rivalry was about as much as a dud as Penn State-Iowa. Florida and Alabama are the last two national champions. Alabama did not have to deal with Florida QB Tim Tebow this year and it showed as they had little trouble moving the ball and dominating the Gators as they take a big step to potentially defending their title.

Finally, Stanford and Oregon was a tale of two halves. The first half looked like a Stanford rout, but their advantage quickly disappeared and Oregon was the team doing the destruction. The Ducks found ways to solve Stanford QB Andrew Luck's hot start and showed why they could find themselves as one half of the national title game. Despite the loss, Stanford could still find themselves in that same picture or least run the table.

Now on to Week 6 with a bunch of big games.

Games featuring top 25 teams/some that might be interesting:

Saturday, October 9
No. 11 Arkansas v Texas A&M: Arkansas is looking to rebound after a tough loss to Alabama and A&M has shown much improvement. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallet might be the difference in this one, but a mistake or two again could spring a big win for the Aggies.

Pittsburgh at Notre Dame: Their records are not flashy, but they have had some heated battles in the past. They both come in desperate for a win and it will likely bring out some very good football.

Oregon State at No. 9 Arizona: Arizona has an attack defense and a very good quarterback with QB Nick Foles. Oregon State entered the year with some promise. The fact that it is a conference matchup will make this matchup one to watch as it should come down to the wire.

And of course, the top 5 games to watch this week.

Top 5:

5) USC at No. 16 Stanford: USC has taken a bit of a step back the last couple years after dominating the Pac-10 for much of the decade. The Trojans are playing for pride this year after NCAA violations. QB Andrew Luck and Stanford are looking to recover after a tough blowout to Oregon. USC would love to play spoiler to Stanford especially considering Stanford cost USC a shot a national title a few years ago. Stanford has a bit more talent and the better quarterback. PREDICTION: STANFORD

4) No. 17 Michigan State at No. 18 Michigan: This battle for Michigan usually involves Michigan trying to challenge for a Big Ten crown with Michigan State trying to spoil their season. The two squads are very close in talent and skill now with Michigan State possibly having the edge. Michigan QB Denard Robinson will need to utilize all his abilities if they are to put the Spartans away. The Spartans defense against Robinson could be the key point of the matchup. After last week, Michigan State looks like a tough-minded team to beat. PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE

3) No. 23 Florida State at No. 13 Miami (FL): This has been a prime battle in the state of Florida for years. The kicker has often factored in these games in the past. Florida State looks to be on the way back as does Miami (FL), which adds to this game. QB Christian Ponder of Florida State vs QB Jacory Harris of Miami (FL) might be the ultimate x-factor in this one. Harris has had flashes of greatest, but comes up short in big games. The Hurricanes are at home, but something tells me the Seminoles will have a few surprises under new head coach Jimbo Fisher. PREDICTION: FLORIDA STATE

2) No. 12 LSU at No. 14 Florida: The Tigers and Gators are the winners of three of the last four BCS title games. The Swamp will be hyped up as these top SEC squads have a lot at stake. A loss by LSU would put them behind Alabama for a shot at SEC West while Florida would suffer its second loss and virtually be fighting for a top bowl game. The Tigers and especially their head coach Les Miles seem to play scrappy and do just enough. The lack of experience like last week will rear its ugly head again and the Tigers edge out a big road victory. PREDICTION: LSU

1) No.1 Alabama at No. 19 South Carolina: Alabama does not catch a break after surviving big SEC battles with Arkansas and Florida as they now go on the road to face South Carolina. South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier has turned around the Gamecocks and led by freshman HB Marcus Lattimore this team could trip up Alabama. The Tide is road tested and road tough. They somehow got past Arkansas on the road and they will need to be resourceful, but a late score and big defensive effort will allow them to survive again. PREDICTION: ALABAMA

As the season continues forward, the SEC has a couple big matchups that could shape the title game.

College Football Week 6 Power Rankings

2010-10-04T23:54:00.002-04:00

The fifth week saw multiple top 25 matchups with a big one in the SEC with #1 Alabama over #7 Florida.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 6)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Alabama: at #18 South Carolina
2)(2) Ohio State: vs Indiana
3)(5) Oregon: at Washington State
4)(3) Boise State: vs Toledo
5)(4) TCU: vs Wyoming
6)(8) Oklahoma: IDLE
7)(7) Nebraska: at Kansas State
8)(9) Auburn: at Kentucky
9)(11) LSU: at #14 Florida
10)(12) Utah: at Iowa State
11)(13) Arkansas: vs Texas A&M
12)(14) Arizona: vs Oregon State
13)(15) Iowa: IDLE
14)(7) Florida: vs #9 LSU
15)(16) Miami (FL): vs #21 Florida State
16)(24) Michigan State: at #17 Michigan
17)(18) Michigan: vs #16 Michigan State
18)(19) South Carolina: vs #1 Alabama
19)(17) Stanford: vs USC
20)(10) Wisconsin: vs Minnesota
21)(23) Florida State: at #15 Miami (FL)
22)(NR) Nevada: vs San Diego State
23)(NR) Oklahoma State: at LA Lafayette
24)(NR) West Virginia: vs UNLV
25)(NR) Air Force: vs Colorado State

Dropped out of the top 25: USC, Texas, Penn State, North Carolina State

The next best 5 for Week 6:

Missouri: vs Colorado
USC: at #19 Stanford
Texas: IDLE
Oregon State: at #12 Arizona
Kansas State: vs #7 Nebraska

College Football Week 5 Preview

2010-09-28T23:38:00.004-04:00

The SEC highlighted the action in Week 4 and Alabama looked great behind the HB Mark Ingram as they pressured Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett and escaped a tough road battle with a win. While QB Cam Newton continued to impress as Auburn downed South Carolina. The Tide remain on top and after this weekend, it looks like it will take a great game to down them.

Looking at the top 5 games I highlighted, I went 5-0 and now am at 16-4 on the year after four weeks. Oklahoma needed everything in the tank to outlast a late effort by Cincinnati. The Bearcats dug too deep of a hole and showed signs that they might have a down year after two great years. West Virginia suffered a similar fate as Cincy as they could not do enough to trip up LSU, who did not play very sharp at times.

Before the SEC doubleheader is addressed, the play of Boise State against Oregon State showed the country that the Broncos could show up and play with the "big boys". They used a lot of their toolkit against the Beavers and silenced the Rodgers brothers. Boise State will need to play consistent and they might be there waiting if enough top teams fall along the way.

Getting to the SEC doubleheader, Alabama and Auburn both looked strong against Arkansas and South Carolina, respectively. The Tide used their defense and Ingram to wear out the Razorbacks. There were multiple opportunities for Mallett to win it for Arkansas, but he felt short each time. Auburn's Newton, on the other hand, found the right holes in the Gamecocks to overtake the effort by USC freshman HB Marcus Lattimore.

Now on to Week 5 with a bunch of big games.

Games featuring top 25 teams/some that might be interesting:

Thursday, September 30
Texas A&M at Oklahoma State: This is a better than average Thursday night showdown. Both have capable offenses especially the Cowboys. QB Brandon Weeden to WR Justin Blackmon could be said a couple times.

Saturday, October 2
Washington at No. 18 USC: Washington has played USC close the last couple years even upsetting them once. USC is playing for pride this year and might fall into a trap at home.

And of course, the top 5 games to watch this week.

Top 5:

5) No. 22 Penn State at No. 17 Iowa: This one sets up to be an old school Big Ten matchup. Iowa has the edge playing at home and features more experience around the board. Those factors will be the difference as the Nittany Lions will make a couple costly mistakes. PREDICTION: IOWA

4) No. 11 Wisconsin at No. 24 Michigan State: This one will feature bruising running and could feature a lot of lead changes. Ultimately, Wisconsin's line and wear down style of offense will catch up with the Spartans. PREDICTION: WISCONSIN

3) No. 8 Oklahoma vs No. 21 Texas: A week ago, I would have said this would be a big top ten battle. However, Texas fell to UCLA and fell in the polls. Nonetheless, a win by the Longhorns would even things out with Oklahoma in the record columns. For that reason, the Sooners have more to lose especially considering they still have their other top rival, Oklahoma State, down the road. This one has one sided in the last decade with Oklahoma owning things followed by Texas owning things. In this one, Texas lacks the experience and playmakers Oklahoma has and that will be the difference and what will close for three quarters. PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA

2) No. 7 Florida at No. 1 Alabama: Florida won in 2008. Alabama won in 2009. The two are top title contenders again and the winner will take a big step in gaining a shot at another title. The Gators have struggled at times on offense this year. That could ultimately play the biggest factor in this SEC grudge match. HB Mark Ingram has looked great since coming back from an offseason injury. He will set the pace and the defense will again rise up at the right moments in what could be a close one. PREDICTION: ALABAMA

1) No. 9 Stanford at No. 4 Oregon: The big game of the week features two potent Pac-10 offenses. This one has shootout written all over it. QB Andrew Luck is starting to emerge as a top player in the country and will be against another pair in QB Darren Thomas and HB LaMichael James. One or all three could be invited to New York City in December for a chance at the Heisman Trophy. You don't want to miss a minute of this one! With all that said, Stanford gets the ball last and comes up short. PREDICTION: OREGON

Another pair of big games highlight the action as the top teams will slowly begin to fall out of the title picture.

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

2010-09-28T22:36:00.003-04:00

After the Saints struggled this past week, a new team is at #1. A few other movements among the top 10. Teams like Dallas and Minnesota finally picked up wins while the Buccaneers finally suffered a loss.

Here is how the rankings stack up for Week 4:

Week 4
Rank (Last week)
1)(5) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0): 3 wins and 3 great defensive efforts. They just might go 4-0 before Big Ben returns.
2)(4) Indianapolis Colts (2-1): Their defense is still figuring things out, but that guy QB Peyton Manning is still a field general.
3)(6) Baltimore Ravens (2-1): They needed a lot of WR Anquan Boldin to survive the Browns.
4)(1) New Orleans Saints (2-1): They now know the Falcons are for real.
5)(2) Green Bay Packers (2-1): Too many costly mistakes against too good of team.
6)(7) New York Jets (2-1): Another nice divisional victory has to have them walking around on top of the world.
7)(10) Atlanta Falcons (2-1): A victory over the Saints says that they are to be feared in the division and the NFC.
8)(14) Chicago Bears (3-0): They were pressuring the Packers into mistakes and are making a claim at being a contender in 2010.
9)(3) Houston Texans (2-1): A humbling loss puts this team back about where they have been in the past.
10)(8) New England Patriots (2-1): Their defense should worry many fans.
11)(9) Miami Dolphins (2-1): They had a few chances, but could not make the big plays in the 4th quarter.
12)(11) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1): This potentially great offense has flickered at best.
13)(15) Tennessee Titans (2-1): They were all over the Giants in all phases.
14)(16) Philadelphia Eagles (2-1): They got a nice tune up before QB Donovan McNabb comes back to town.
15)(20) Kansas City Chiefs (3-0): They continue to make surprising plays and get by.
16)(17) Minnesota Vikings (1-2): They enter the bye with the confidence of a win.
17)(18) Dallas Cowboys (1-2): A crucial victory against their in state rival of sorts.
18)(21) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1): As expected, they had a tough go against the Steelers and the schedule does not really let up.
19)(12) San Diego Chargers (1-2): Their slow start this year looks a bit worse than usual.
20)(26) Seattle Seahawks (2-1): A couple big returns stunned the Chargers.
21)(25) Arizona Cardinals (2-1): They still have a good shot to the win division after a gift victory.
22)(13) Washington Redskins (1-2): They gave the Rams a lot of opportunities and paid for them.
23)(19) New York Giants (1-2): They continued to make foolish mistakes and cause penalties and turnovers.
24)(23) Denver Broncos (1-2): Yet another rough loss to the Colts.
25)(24) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2): It was like they didn't show up and let QB Mike Vick just waltz around the field.
26)(29) St. Louis Rams (1-2): Getting that first win against a division rival is that much sweeter.
27)(27) Oakland Raiders (1-2): Costly missed kicks kept them from an easy win.
28)(22) San Francisco 49ers (0-3): This team is continuing to underachieve based on many observers' standards.
29)(28) Detroit Lions (0-3): They are still some time away from being relevant after another bad loss.
30)(30) Carolina Panthers (0-3): New quarterback, same stagnant offense.
31)(31) Cleveland Browns (0-3): Another close game, yet another loss though.
32)(32) Buffalo Bills (0-3): More problems continue and now QB Trent Edwards has been saved from those problems.

As Week 4 starts, 3 teams remain unbeaten and 5 sit without a win. There are surprises all around the league early on so far. A big top 5 matchup of the Steelers against the Ravens highlights Week 4.

College Football Week 5 Power Rankings

2010-09-27T22:04:00.003-04:00

The fourth week was highlighted by a top 10 matchup and the top 5 is still standing with a few movements; most notably Texas.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 5)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Alabama: vs #7 Florida
2)(2) Ohio State: at Illinois
3)(3) Boise State: at New Mexico State
4)(4) TCU: at Colorado State
5)(7) Oregon: vs #17 Stanford
6)(7) Nebraska: IDLE
7)(9) Florida: at #1 Alabama
8)(8) Oklahoma: vs #21 Texas
9)(14) Auburn: vs Louisiana-Monroe
10)(11) Wisconsin: at #24 Michigan State
11)(12) LSU: vs Tennessee
12)(13) Utah: IDLE
13)(10) Arkansas: IDLE
14)(16) Arizona: IDLE
15)(17) Iowa: vs #22 Penn State
16)(18) Miami (FL): at Clemson
17)(19) Stanford: at #5 Oregon
18)(20) Michigan: at Indiana
19)(15) South Carolina: IDLE
20)(21) USC: vs Washington
21)(7) Texas: vs #8 Oklahoma
22)(23) Penn State: at #15 Iowa
23)(25) Florida State: at Virginia
24)(NR) Michigan State: vs #10 Wisconsin
25)(NR) North Carolina State: vs Virginia Tech

Dropped out: West Virginia, Oregon State

The next best 5 for Week 5:

West Virginia: IDLE
Oregon State: IDLE
Air Force: IDLE
Nevada: at UNLV
Oklahoma State: vs Texas A&M

Health Care Reform gets its 6 month check-up

2010-09-23T22:01:00.004-04:00

March 23, 2010: The Affordable Care Act was signed into law after months of debates, votes, and conversations/battles.

It now six months later and a good time to assess the bill once again as it still remains a hotly debated topic. It is fodder for political ads and campaigns for this year's elections. Candidates are running against it while very few of those who voted it are running on it. September and the six month mark the beginning of some of the initial parts of the bill taking effect. That is where Drew Altmire comes in as he takes a closer look at health care reform after six months of it being enacted.

Below is his commentary:

Six months after its enactment, there are two totally different stories to tell about the health-reform law. The public remains split on the law largely along traditional partisan lines. Confusion and misperception are rampant, with more than a third of seniors still thinking the law contains "death panels" (it does not). Yet beneath the political battle lies a success story of early implementation: The federal government that many regard as sluggish and ineffective has turned major elements of the legislation into reality right on schedule.

Since the bill's passage, the Department of Health and Human Services has set up a program to help people with preexisting health conditions get coverage through state or federal high-risk pools; established a program to help employers provide health insurance to early retirees; issued rebates to help pay drug costs for Medicare beneficiaries stuck in the "doughnut hole"; provided tax credits to small businesses to provide insurance coverage; and created a consumer-friendly Web site, http://HealthCare.gov, that rivals anything coming out of Silicon Valley (where our organization is based).

Several popular provisions take effect Thursday. They include allowing adult children up to age 26 to be on their parents' insurance; banning lifetime benefits caps and loosening annual limits on insurance coverage payouts; prohibiting insurance companies from kicking people off of their policies when they get sick; and requiring that newly purchased insurance policies cover preventive services at no cost to patients.

Still, our monthly polling finds the public split on the law, with 49 percent in favor vs. 40 percent against in September and the rest undecided. Public sentiment about health reform has shifted within a narrow band since the spring, with slightly more in favor in some months and slightly more against in others. For many who oppose it, the law reflects deeper discontent. When we asked people who said they were angry about the law why they were angry, the vast majority reported that, more than being upset with the law itself, they were angry about the general direction in Washington. Meanwhile, with a few notable exceptions -- such as requiring that people have insurance -- the law's major provisions appear to be very popular with the public.

The provisions that will touch the most people -- an expansion of Medicaid, new insurance marketplaces in every state, tax subsidies for working people without insurance, guaranteed access to insurance and the hotly debated requirement that almost everybody purchase coverage -- do not come until 2014. And eventually, real-world experience with these changes will trump political argument when the public renders its verdict on the law.

Consider what happened when a Republican-controlled Congress created the Medicare drug benefit in 2004. Three times as many seniors opposed the law as favored it, and many liberals criticized the legislation as a first step toward privatization of Medicare, just as some conservatives call current health reform a government takeover. Within three years, though, supporters of Medicare Part D outnumbered detractors as it became clear the program was working well and helping seniors afford their medicines. The new health-reform law represents a much bigger change than the Medicare drug benefit was and may work out differently, especially if Republicans succeed in their efforts to block full implementation. But if the reform continues on pace, as happened with Part D, the law's fate will be determined not by the early political debate but by how people believe the law is working for them and their families and friends once its major elements are implemented.

At the six-month mark, the politics of health reform remain as ugly as ever, but implementation of the law's benefits and changes has been a success story so far. There is a lot of heavy lifting still to come.

As Altmire presents it, this will continue to be a feeling out process and it begins to affect individuals, companies, and the health industries; more will certainly unfold in more definite terms. For now, it looks like it the more people, they more they might learn they like it especially those who start to see the benefits starting today.

Does a group need a leader to be powerful?

2010-09-22T23:45:00.005-04:00

Often whether it be politics, business, or most settings where multiple groups function; there is usually a leader-based structure. Businesses and corporations have CEOs. School groups elect presidents or chairs. Committees in Congress all have heads and both Democrats and Republican have chairs and leaders in Congress, at the national level, and at the state level.

That is why at times it is asked: Does the Tea Party need a leader to fulfill "their mission"? Do they need a leader to affective campaign for candidates and lobby amongst both parties especially the Republicans to get their issues and their voices heard?

That is where a recent Washington Post article comes into the equation.

Since its early days in late 2008, the Tea Party has largely been based on grassroots energy and the mobilizing energy allowed the group to build a voice that has injected itself in the political discourse and has been a growing x-factor in multiple primaries this year. However, as this group has grown; conservative-leaning interest groups have taken noticed and have provided extra energy and millions of dollars. Those dollars have provided pushes for multiple Tea Party-backed candidates and enabled several upset victories slating more conservative candidates in general election races this fall. But, through it all; they have embraced a regional system where there are multiple leaders of different state and region Tea Parties. Their desire for that structure is based in the belief of small government and allowing everyone to have a voice; or a protection of their freedom of speech.

Despite successes, many wonder what could be different if they had a main leader. Would they be able to generate better campaign strategies? Would they increase primary victories and subsequently, potentially general election victories.

A lack of a leader and a goal are weaknesses that can be contributed to counteracting much of the strength of the grass roots organization the Tea Party enjoys. The Tea Party was planning to hold its own convention, but changed its mind due to some disagreements with the Tennessee-based group planning the Las Vegas gathering.

Something also thrown in the shuffle is the way the group lobbies against what "the establishment" represents, but still needs to raise funds that often come through channels linked to "the establishment". They must "grin and bare it" almost if they truly want to be able to take the grass roots energy and back that up with the money needed to win large scale elections. Hence, they must question if their ideologies have to be put aside in order to take the next step.

Of the major national tea party groups, Tea Party Patriots most closely resembles a grass-roots organization. The nonprofit group does not run a political action committee and does not endorse candidates. At least 2,800 local groups are affiliated with it, but Tea Party Patriots does not tell them what to do or whom to vote for.

The movement is based more getting conservatives out to vote and not necessarily always advocated for a candidate. The Tea Party has been able to allow outside groups to do the damage to candidates they oppose while letting their preferred candidates try to file in the gaps.

The money that is raised will certainly be put towards a final push for candidates in November. But, there is a sense amongst many in the Tea Party that they must "pace" themselves in order to maintain their stability after November. They will have two more years before President Obama is up for reelection and if they truly want to "take their country back"; they will need to monitor resources in order to relevant in two years.

Thus, as the campaigns speed up as November nears; more than some wonder how effective the group is without a leader. So far, the Tea Party has succeeded under a fractional leadership style with multiple "patriots" guiding the way. Grassroots movements sometimes just need the right mix of energy. Plus, outsider groups' money does not hurt when it comes to negating the lack of a strong leader at the helm.

College Football Week 4 Preview

2010-09-22T21:12:00.006-04:00

After three weeks, it looks like Alabama and Ohio State are positioning themselves for a possible showdown in January. Others are also showing quite skill and look to be ready if one or both squads fall. Chief among them is uprising Pac-10 Stanford and non-automatic bid conference teams Boise State and TCU. Until further notice, chalk is looking good early.

Turning to the top 5 games I highlighted, I went 4-1 and now am at 11-4 on the year. Auburn and Clemson traditionally have a heated non-conference rivalry between tiger teams. QB Cam Newton's coming out party continued as he led his team to another victory. Similar excitement was witnessed in Lansing as Michigan State continued their luck against the Fighting Irish in a quarterback duel filled with injuries. Notre Dame showed a lot in defeat and might be on the run to reclaiming some of their glory.

Florida and Texas, two recent national title game participants, continued their quest for answers with new quarterbacks and youth. After two weeks of struggles, they got back in the groove against rivals in their conferences. The "main event" of the week was a nailbiter late as Arizona QB Nick Foles showed that he might the best quarterback in a quarterback heavy conference. He was aided by a great defensive effort from his defense.

Now on to Week 4 with a bunch of big games.

Games featuring top 25 teams/some that might be interesting:

Thursday, September 23
No. 19 Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh: These former Big East rivals are looking to position themselves to be a top national team. Both have shown signs in the last couple years. They have sparks on offense and one should not expect the best defensive game.

Friday, September 24
No. 4 TCU at SMU: SMU had a breakout year last year and could be a decent test for TCU. If TCU struggles here, it could provide an early blip if they want to play for the national title in January.

Saturday, September 25
North Carolina State at Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech's offense is fast and furious and the NC State Wolfpack have the potential to score a lot too. The option run by Tech is exciting to watch and this ACC battle could be interesting.

No. 16 Stanford at Notre Dame: Notre Dame is coming off a tough loss while Stanford led by QB Andrew Luck looks very hot on offense. After the duel in Lansing, Notre Dame will need to duplicate that to possibly knock off Stanford.

And of course, the top 5 games to watch this week.

Top 5:

5) No. 8 Oklahoma at Cincinnati: The Sooners could be poised to reclaim the Big 12 throne now that QB Colt McCoy no longer roams the Texas sidelines. Cincy is looking to replace their quarterback and maintain top status in the Big East without coach Brian Kelly. This one has the potential to be close largely due to the fact that Oklahoma is playing on the road. Top teams face one or two road tests a year and this might be one of those for QB Landry Jones and the rest of the team. However, they will make a couple key plays late to secure the win. PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA

4) No. 22 West Virginia at No. 15 LSU: West Virginia is battling for a chance to go to a BCS bowl game on behalf of the Big East and face possibly one of their biggest challenges in the last few years. Baton Rouge at night is one of the toughest places to play and LSU looked geared up and ready to spread it out and play tough SEC defense. West Virginia does possess a spread option offense that could keep LSU stars like CB Patrick Peterson on their toes at times. Unless West Virginia sets the tone early, it could be a long one. But, it should be somewhat close in the end. PREDICTION: LSU

3) No. 3 Boise State at No. 24 Oregon State: Boise State has been looking to make a statement on the national stage the last few years. They upset Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl a few years back and have knocked off a few top teams along the way. However, they still are asked to prove themselves. Going to Oregon State is another step on the way to respect. The Beavers have the Rodgers brothers who pose problems for defenses and the environment will be hostile. The Broncos possess a balanced squad that can score and stop teams. Expect a statement. PREDICTION: BOISE STATE

2) No. 12 South Carolina at No. 17 Auburn: The undercard matchup in the SEC doubleheader. Auburn under QB Cam Newton looks dangerous at times while Steve Spurrier has provided a spark for the Gamecocks led by a talented quarterback-running back tandem. This one could be a grinder for 30 and come down to a drive or two in the 4th. Newton's athleticism could provide the difference in the end. PREDICTION: AUBURN

1) No.1 Alabama at No. 10 Arkansas: This top ten battle is amplified by the fact that it is a SEC conference battle. Alabama's path to a repeat could face one of its toughest obstacles this week. QB Ryan Mallett is talented enough to dice apart this very good Alabama defense. That battle could decide the game. If Arkansas can slow a Alabama offense that features Heisman Trophy winner, HB Mark Ingram; they could spring the upset even though they are at home. The Tide makes one extra play in the end on defense to win it. PREDICTION: ALABAMA

As the season nears the end of the first month and the BCS rankings are a couple weeks away, some top teams will be on guard for an early trip up that could cost them. Alabama has the most to lose this weekend.

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

2010-09-21T21:24:00.005-04:00

Some shake up in the top 10 again with the top 2 still intact. A few surprising 2-0 teams and a few surprising 0-2 teams.

Here is how the rankings stack up for Week 3:

Week 3
Rank (Last week)
1)(1) New Orleans Saints (2-0): It was not pretty, but they showed enough poise to hold off the 49ers when it counted.
2)(2) Green Bay Packers (2-0): They took advantage of a bad Bills team all day.
3)(7) Houston Texans (2-0): They needed some luck at the end and a bit of skill to remain unbeaten.
4)(5) Indianapolis Colts (1-1): They took out their Week frustrations all night against the Giants.
5)(8) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0): Their defense is back to form and could be a bad sign for the league once their offense is back intact.
6)(3) Baltimore Ravens (1-1): They might have run out of steam after their Monday night win or a few bad calls could have contributed to the loss as well.
7)(11) New York Jets (1-1): They showed that they can regain focus after a tough loss and make a divisional statement.
8)(4) New England Patriots (1-1): A big letdown by QB Tom Brady and the offense in the second half cost them a winnable game.
9)(14) Miami Dolphins (2-0): They have two tough division games ahead that can establish the AFC East front runner.
10)(13) Atlanta Falcons (1-1): That type of play on offense could spring them the NFC South crown.
11)(15) Cincinnati Bengals (1-1): The AFC North is still in sight again after a tough division victory.
12)(12) San Diego Chargers (1-1): Beating up the Jaguars should help after their Week 1 upset.
13)(16) Washington Redskins (1-1): They had the Texans beat and let them off the hook.
14)(23) Chicago Bears (2-0): This team is starting to show potential for a balanced attack on both sides of the ball.
15)(9) Tennessee Titans (1-1): They ran into a tough Steelers defense and HB Chris Johnson got shut down.
16)(18) Philadelphia Eagles (1-1): QB Mike Vick will be depended on to keep defenses confused.
17)(6) Minnesota Vikings (0-2): They continue to miss a big play guy like WR Sidney Rice.
18)(10) Dallas Cowboys (0-2): Another dud of a performance for a team that is supposed to compete for a Super Bowl.
19)(17) New York Giants (1-1): They looked even sloppier this week.
20)(24) Kansas City Chiefs (2-0): They have a good chance to get to 3-0 against a shaky 49ers team.
21)(29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0): Might be the biggest surprise at 2-0. Tough test against Steelers this week.
22)(21) San Francisco 49ers (0-2): Keeping the defending champions close should build confidence.
23)(25) Denver Broncos (1-1): They are still a bit of enigma in terms of their talent.
24)(19) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1): Their defense was sliced apart by the Chargers.
25)(20) Arizona Cardinals (1-1): They are starting to wish they had a solid quarterback.
26)(22) Seattle Seahawks (1-1): A big letdown after their opener.
27)(28) Oakland Raiders (1-1): It was not the greatest win, but it still counts.
28)(27) Detroit Lions (0-2): Another close ending resulting in a loss.
29)(30) St. Louis Rams (0-2): They have come close to being 2-0.
30)(26) Carolina Panthers (0-2): A change at quarterback couldn't hurt.
31)(31) Cleveland Browns (0-2): They keep games close, but lack the talent to seal the deal.
32)(32) Buffalo Bills (0-2): They are scrambling for answers at multiple areas.

Some good games ahead this week including a 2-0 Steelers vs a 2-0 Buccaneers. 8 teams are undefeated and 8 teams are still to win.

College Football Week 4 Power Rankings

2010-09-20T21:26:00.002-04:00

The third week did not provide any major fireworks and the top teams remain pretty much intact.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 4)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Alabama: at #10 Arkansas
2)(2) Ohio State: vs Eastern Michigan
3)(3) Boise State: vs #24 Oregon State
4)(4) TCU: at Southern Methodist
5)(7) Oregon: at Arizona State
6)(7) Nebraska: vs South Dakota State
7)(6) Texas: vs UCLA
8)(9) Oklahoma: at Cincinnati
9)(10) Florida: vs Kentucky
10)(12) Arkansas: vs #1 Alabama
11)(11) Wisconsin: vs Austin Peay
12)(13) LSU: vs #22 West Virginia
13)(14) Utah: vs San Jose State
14)(16) Auburn: vs #15 South Carolina
15)(17) South Carolina: at #14 Auburn
16)(24) Arizona: vs California
17)(8) Iowa: vs Ball State
18)(15) Miami (FL): at Pittsburgh
19)(19) Stanford: at Notre Dame
20)(20) Michigan: vs Bowling Green
21)(18) USC: at Washington State
22)(21) West Virginia: at #12 LSU
23)(22) Penn State: vs Temple
24)(25) Oregon State: at #3 Boise State
25)(23) Florida State: vs Wake Forest

Dropped out: None

The next best 5 for Week 4:

Pittsburgh: vs #18 Miami (FL)
Michigan State: vs Northern Colorado
Georgia Tech: vs North Carolina State
Air Force: at Wyoming
Fresno State: at Mississippi

NFL Week 2 Preview

2010-09-16T23:46:00.007-04:00

Week provided excitement from game 1 to game 16. The Saints held off the Vikings to celebrate a win alongside celebrating their Super Bowl win once last time. While the Chiefs ended the first week stunning the Chargers with a late defensive stop and some great special teams. In between, some teams like the Jets looked flat while others like the Texans amazed us with their play.

In the four featured games, the Saints did not look especially great on offense, but the way they started the 1st and 3rd quarters were enough to hold off the Vikings, who were a few plays away from ruining the Saints' night. While on Sunday afternoon, the Texans got one of their wins and it came against divisional tormentor, the Colts. HB Arian Foster made a huge statement racking up over 200 yards on the ground and gives the team a ton of confidence for 2010. And on Sunday night, the Cowboys looked pretty bad. Followed by Monday night's even worse offensive effort by the Jets. The Cowboys in all likelihood should have beat the Redskins if it were not for either a risky play before halftime or a hold on the final play, which would have resulted in the game winning touchdown. But, the Jets' bravado and ego took a big hit by losing to the Ravens, the more complete team. Baltimore was patient enough on offense to find the holes in the Jets' otherwise tough defense. All four losers will certainly look to use week 2 to redeem themselves. Besides the Chargers, the 49ers were probably the other team that looked pretty bad getting spanked by the Seahawks to start the year.

I ended up going 2-2 among those games. I went 9-3 in the other games bringing my record to 11-5; a good start.

Now to turn to Week 2's slate of games.

TOP 4 OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots at New York Jets: This rivalry has reached a different level since Rex Ryan has become head coach of the Jets. The two squads split last year's series with the Patriots winning the division again. However, the Jets ended going further. This one will feel personal. The key matchup will be QB Tom Brady and WR Randy Moss against the Jets' blitzing defensive front seven and CB Darrelle Revis in the secondary. Brady has had a tendency to find holes in defenses over the years with screens and slants patterns where someone like WR Wes Welker thrives. For the sake of this battle, the Jets struggled on offense last week and will be hard pressed to slow down New England's offense the way they were able to contain Baltimore's to a degree. The Jets' lose another close one. PREDICTION: Patriots

Sunday Night: New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts: Its the rematch of four years ago between the brothers Manning. Peyton bested Eli last time and things expect to be close again. Both did not look especially great to start the year as the Giants got a defacto win while the Texans for one of the very few times beat the Colts in a key division game. The lights will be bright as both quarterbacks should rebound for less than stellar performances. The Giants' offense seems to lack a certain punch while the Colts need to get HB Joseph Addai more involved. Peyton again gets the better of Eli. PREDICTION: Colts

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: The two competed in physical battles last year with the Bengals surprising the Ravens in both. The Ravens were able to weather the Jets' defense while Cincinnati's offense looked exposed. It was definitely not clicking as planned. The Ravens' offense should be able to open up a little more against a defense that will probably try to blitz like New York, but doesn't have the same mix of talent. A Ravens victory put a little distance early between two of the top contenders AFC North and possibly the AFC. In a physical one again, the Ravens edge out another one. PREDICTION: Ravens

Monday Night: New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers: The Saints opened up their title defense with a big win over the Vikings while the 49ers looked like garbage and unprepared. Not that the Saints played especially well either. They largely won on a big play to start each half. The game is in San Francisco and gives the 49ers a little boost. Since it is a prime time game, expect Mike Singletary to have his squad ready to play better. However, the Saints have one too many weapons and make timely big plays. That will be the difference here with a couple trick plays and one or two bombs by QB Drew Brees. PREDICTION: Saints

THE REST

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: The Steelers shocked some with their win over the Falcons with a big play by HB Rashad Mendenhall in overtime. The Titans and especially HB Chris Johnson looked to be in mid season form like the way they ended 2009. This might become a ground and pound type of game where Mendenhall and Johnson will battle for yards and points. The passing games of both will be slow and steady. Tennessee will go from playing Oakland's porous defense to playing a stacked Pittsburgh defense. Some questioned whether Pittsburgh could maintain high play without QB Ben Roethlisberger, but their defense might have been not acknowledged enough. A late play that leads to a turnover by Pittsburgh's defense might seal another victory. PREDICTION: Steelers

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings: Miami was lucky to escape their battle with Buffalo with a win while Minnesota might miss WR Sidney Rice more than some thought as they struggled in a loss. There is a great deal of pressure on the Vikings, but the Dolphins know they can't trip up early if they want to keep pace with the Patriots and Jets. The Vikings' defense will likely have the first half as their offense will likely try to figure out the Dolphins' defense early. However, QB Bret Favre rarely have back to back bad games even at this point in his career. He used his unorthodox play late to win. PREDICTION: Vikings

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: The Cardinals barely escaped against St. Louis while the Falcons barely lost to Pittsburgh. The Falcons' offense did not look like it was on cylinders, but facing Arizona might solve that. They often say this is a quarterback league and there is a big gap between the two starting ones in this game. QB Matt Ryan to WR Roddy White was probably the brightest spot in the Week 1 loss and expect them to shine again while QB Derek Anderson has not developed a rapport with star WR Larry Fitzgerald yet. The Falcons' balanced attack will be too much. PREDICTION: Falcons

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns: In possibility the biggest shocker of Week 1, the Chiefs beat the Chargers largely great special teams and key running plays. They will likely have some similar success against the Browns' defense. They have their own pretty good return game led by KR/PR Josh Cribbs. QB Jake Delhomme managed the game fairly well last week in a loss. He will need to manage the game again if they are to get in the win column. However, this young Kansas City team might be better than some expected coming into the year. PREDICTION: Chiefs

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: Chicago is 1-0 and Dallas is 0-1, but very likely their records could be swapped. A controversial play late allowed a Lions' touchdown to not count and allow the Bears to escape. While the Cowboys were leading going into the half, but QB Tony Romo decided to throw a risky pass that got picked off and returned by CB DeAngelo Hall and returned for a touchdown. Momentum is key especially in division games and Dallas lost theirs and gave away to Washington. The Cowboys will be under pressure to avoid an 0-2 start with Super Bowl expectations with the big game being hosted by the city of Dallas this year. The Chicago offense exploded and might be able to uncover holes in Dallas' secondary that LB DeMarcus Ware can't cover up. Cowboys will play desperate and escape a late Chicago rally. PREDICTION: Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: Philadelphia's season took a quick twist in the second half of their first game with the injury to QB Kevin Kolb and entry of QB Mike Vick. Vick nearly orchestrated a comeback victory. While the Lions almost started the year with a win and seem to be a better balanced team that is not going to be an easy win for the Eagles. A close first half begins to turn into a two touchdown victory for the Eagles under the dynamic play of Vick. PREDICTION: Eagles

Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers: The Bills did enough to almost win last week, but playing Green Bay will be a greater challenge. QB Aaron Rodgers should have a big game and get all his weapons involved. They will depend more on the pass now that HB Ryan Grant is lost for the year. This game would be a great chance for them to test out replacement backs. PREDICTION: Packers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: This one will be a contest with young quarterbacks, who are not polished. The Panthers looked really bad in defeat while the Bucs did enough to win. QB Josh Freeman is better at managing the ball and turnovers by either QB Matt Moore or QB Jimmy Clausen for the Panthers will turn the ball over and that will be enough again for a Bucs win in what should be a close divisional battle. PREDICTION: Buccaneers

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos: Seattle might have had one of the best overall games last week as they dominated San Francisco. Denver loss a heartbreaker to Jacksonville in a back and forth battle. QB Kyle Orton played especially well and might have found a star in the making in WR Brandon Lloyd. The two will need to get going early to set the same pace and tone as last week. WR Mike Williams was given a second NFL live in Seattle and he might be a breakout star in their offense with what seems like a healthy QB Matt Hasselback. Denver's experience in a close one last week will pay off as this one will be tight late with a late score by Orton. PREDICTION: Broncos

St. Louis Rams at Oakland Raiders: The Rams lost a close division game with Arizona while Oakland look lost at best to start the year. QB Sam Bradford showed a good mix of caution and potential that will pay off as the year continues. Oakland will probably play better, but St. Louis should be able to hold off any Oakland late charge once they get the lead. Rams in a mild upset. PREDICTION: Rams

Houston Texans at Washington Redskins: Both teams provided shocking wins. The Texans must be on a confidence high after beating the Colts while the Redskins won barely their own division rival. QB Donovan McNabb played well enough, but if he enters a duel with QB Matt Schaub; he might not have enough talent to match Schaub's corp led by WR Andre Johnson. HB Arian Foster burst on the scene and was the driving force for the Texans last week. He might be the x-factor in this one. PREDICTION: Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers: San Diego might be about to begin another rough start to a year. They came out flat against Kansas City while HB Maurice Jones-Drew did enough to carry the Jaguars to win over Denver. QB Phillip Rivers will due enough to rebound, but it will be close based off their play of a week ago. PREDICTION: Chargers

The excitement of Week 1 should carry over led by a sibling battle and headlined by an AFC East showdown between the Patriots and Jets.

Polls Reveal Positive Signs for Both Parties

2010-09-16T22:01:00.004-04:00

2010 has been building as a rough election year for Democrats. Republicans are not exactly hitting public opinion "home runs" either. However, a new New York Times/CBS News poll might provide some better news for both parties.

The poll shows that despite the negativity directed at Democrats, voters view Republicans even more negatively. That can provide a spot of hope with seven weeks to go for Democrats to manage their losses. Tapping into voters' opinions and having those opinions translate into votes will be part of the mission for Democrats.

The bright spots for Democrats:

They are seen as having better ideas for solving the country’s problems. The public steadfastly supports the president’s proposal to let tax cuts expire for the wealthiest Americans. And far more people still blame Wall Street and the Bush administration than blame Mr. Obama for the country’s economic problems.

The bright spots for Republicans:

Voters are remarkably open to change, even if they are not sure where Republicans will lead them. Most Americans, including one-third of those in the coalition that elected Mr. Obama, now say he does not have a clear plan to solve the nation’s problems or create jobs. Democrats remain highly vulnerable on the economy.

Congress never generates great approval numbers and the negatives are higher for Republicans in this regard as well with 63% disapproving of Democrats, but 73% disapprove of Republicans. However, despite those numbers and others; Democrats have not been able to turn the higher negative opinion for Republican into guaranteed votes for them in November. "Blind faith" might be the biggest thing working against Democrats as some are probably going to vote against their own best interest and opinions only because they want to try something else. Voters can be fickle. They might be the ficklest right now than they have ever been.

In years when times are less than good, the incumbents pay regardless of if problems are a result of their errors or oppression of the opposing party.

Working against the Democrats as well is the fact that most have a negative view of the direction of the country. Something very similar to 1994 when Republicans regained Congress. Additionally, Congress usually generates bad poll numbers; but representatives are even getting bad marks among their constituents.

Driving much of the negativity is the stagnant and slowly improving economy. The economy has not been this bad in roughly seven decades. Hence, there is a greater concern among voters of their futures as they deal with a tough recession.

Moving forward, the results of this poll show voters not sold on Republicans and not too sure about the Tea Party. In politics, more than half the battle is molding a message and Democrats can certainly do some of that with this poll. For most of this cycle, the negative comments have been about Democrats; however voters are still saying more negative things about Republicans.

If this poll means anything, it means that the election predictions and "anointing" of a Democratic "bloodbath" might need to be drawn back at least just a bit as voters' opinions are reflecting some different views than some pundits are saying.

College Football Week 3 Preview

2010-09-15T23:19:00.004-04:00

The excitement of Week 1 carried over into Week 2 with multiple matchups featuring ranked teams going against each other. The only down side was none really contained the type of drama and down to the end finishes one might have expected from at least a couple of them. The top teams are starting to prove themselves and that includes Alabama and Ohio State, who sit at the top of college football for now.

Both Florida and Texas had early struggles again before turning it around in the second half. In one of the bigger shockers of the weekends, Virginia Tech coming off a loss against Boise State fell at home to James Madison. The Hokies are now wondering what is wrong as they must get back on track before conference play commences. Also, Kansas going off a rough opening game surprised a ranked Georgia Tech team with consistent scoring. And, Oregon and TCU were very impressive and have great outside chances of making the top 2 in the polls if teams ahead of them stumble.

In terms of my top 5 game picks, I went 3-2 and now stand at 7-3 after two weeks. At South Bend, Michigan QB Denard Robinson proved that his first game was only a warm up as he turned it up against the Irish and contributed over 250 yards on the ground alone and over 500 overall. He put the team on his shoulders late after Notre Dame took the lead and won the game with less than a minute to go in the game. Not aiding the Irish was the fact that their starting QB Dayne Crist went out in the first half and by the time he game back in; there was not enough time to build a lead or put the game out of the reach of Robinson. The matchup's ending certainly rivaled their game last year and adds another chapter in their long rivalry. Georgia and South Carolina locked up in a traditional hard nosed battle. Anytime Georgia tried to establish some consistency, South Carolina's defense stood up. They used enough offense behind the running game of HB Marcus Lattimore. Georgia might have a tough year ahead in the SEC if their start is a sign of things to come.

For Penn State, it was a long night for the team and QB Rob Bolden. The Crimson Tide handled the Nittany Lions by running them down and playing great defense. They didn't have to blow out Penn State and nearly shut them out. The defending champions have looked very good after two weeks and should be set up well for a run in the SEC and they should be getting HB Mark Ingram back in time for that. They way that both Florida State and Oklahoma played in week 1, one would have thought this one would have favored Florida State and been much closer. In a battle of two good quarterbacks, Oklahoma QB Landry Jones was a lot better than Florida State QB Christian Ponder as Jones passed for nearly 400 yards in a rout of what looked like a very good Seminoles team. The confidence that Florida State had might be gone and the confidence that Oklahoma was lacking might be in their pocket. And, in my big game of the week, QB Tyrelle Pryor of Ohio State performed better and made no mistakes unlike QB Jacory Harris of Miami (FL). Harris turned the ball over a couple times including a late turnover that prevented almost any Hurricanes comeback.

Now on to Week 3 with a bunch of big games.

Games featuring top 25 teams/some that might be interesting:

Friday, September 17: California at Nevada: This one could be interesting to see how Nevada plays against a Pac-10 school. The Wolfpack could be a wildcard team throughout 2010.

Saturday, September 18

Ohio at No. 2 Ohio State: This will be one of those games for QB Tyrelle Pryor to make a Heisman argument with a lot of stats.

No. 12 Arkansas at Georgia: Arkansas is looking very good while Georgia is struggling on offense.

Massachusetts at No. 20 Michigan: How will QB Denard Robinson's third game go? Will Michigan be able to handle their growing pressure to perform?

Maryland at No. 21 West Virginia: West Virginia has not looked especially great and could be on upset alert if not careful.

Kent State at No. 22 Penn State: The Nittany Lions return home and should perform better than last week.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina: Both have had their share of interesting game results. The Yellow Jackets might open it up against a still undermanned Tar Heels team.

Connecticut at Temple: This one will be close and the Owls could pull off a big victory at home.

East Carolina at Virginia Tech: Can't imagine the Hokies starting 0-3. But East Carolina is not a push over.

No. 1 Alabama at Duke: HB Mark Ingram should be back this week, which means this could get ugly.

Air Force at No. 7 Oklahoma: Air Force has had a good start and if Oklahoma plays more like they did in week 1 as opposed to last week; then the Sooners might end up in trouble.

No. 8 Nebraska at Washington: This is a battle between two very good quarterbacks, but Nebraska has a lot more weapons and a better defense.

Arizona State at No. 11 Wisconsin: The Badgers have been their effective selves and should run their way to another victory.

No. 18 USC at Minnesota: Can USC finally show they have a defense? If not, this one becomes closer than it should be.

Brigham Young at Florida State: Florida State and QB Christian Ponder will look to rebound at home against a BYU team not as good as a year ago.

Baylor at No. 4 TCU: TCU looks to make a statement against a Big 12 school. Their defense has not dropped off at all.

Louisville at No. 25 Oregon State: The Badgers should have a field day.

Portland State at No. 5 Oregon: Will this one become a 60 point blowout? Would not be surprised.

Furman at No. 13 South Carolina: This South Carolina team might have the makings of a SEC title game run.

Mississippi State at No. 15 LSU: LSU must be careful at home against a Bulldogs team that can capitalize on any silly mistakes by the Tigers.

No. 3 Boise State at Wyoming: Boise State will need to continue to show that they deserve in the national title game conversation.

No. 14 Utah at New Mexico: Utah has looked better than expected thus far.

No. 23 Houston at UCLA: This is one of those intriguing non conference game matchups with not a lot on the line.

Wake Forest at No. 19 Stanford: Wake Forest has put up a lot of points so far. They might be on the other end of a blowout this week.

And of course, the top 5 games to watch this week.

Top 5
5) Clemson at No. 16 Auburn: These two "Tigers" will play heated and it should be close going into the fourth quarter. That is when QB Cameron Newton for Auburn will turn it up and run and pass his way down the field for an Auburn victory. A defensive or special teams play might be something to watch for especially from Clemson. PREDICTION: AUBURN

4) Notre Dame at Michigan State: The Fighting Irish must turn their attention from Michigan to Michigan State. The Spartans have shown some balance that they have not had in recent years and because of that they will give Notre Dame a lot of headaches. QB Dayne Crist should be healthy and if he plays a full game, they should be poised to pick up a win. I feel that this one ends similarly for the Irish; a late stunner against a team from the state of Michigan. PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE

3) No. 10 Florida at Tennessee: Florida and Tennessee used to play in competitive games. That did not occur very much while QB Tim Tebow was in Gainesville. This year will be a return to that. Tennessee's defense bottled up Oregon for about a quarter. They do that again this week against Florida; they might allow themselves a two touchdown lead by halftime. Florida needs to get their running game going and if they can do that; they might open it up in the second half. Close game early, but Florida separates down the stretch. PREDICTION: FLORIDA

2) No. 6 Texas at Texas Tech: Most recall what happened two years ago in Lubbock. Texas will certainly be looking to avenge that loss there. Texas has yet to establish consistency on offense and must be leery of a very capable Texas Tech team. They have a potent passing game that could find holes in the Texas defense. This one is close and turns on a turnover or two. PREDICTION: TEXAS

1) No. 9 Iowa at No. 24 Arizona: This is the only ranked matchup of the week. It gives us a great Big Ten vs. Pac-10 matchup. Both have good quarterbacks who can do some damage and both teams possess very good defenses. For that reason, the quarterback that gauges the other defense better will put his team in position to win. This has the makings of a field goal late type of game. PREDICTION: IOWA

Not too sure how much excitement might come out of Week 3, but you never know when a couple big upsets might occur.

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

2010-09-14T22:19:00.004-04:00

It only took one week for a new number 1 after the Colts were run over by the Texans. The Saints survived their top 5 battle with the Vikings and claim the top spot until proven otherwise.

Here is how the rankings stack up for Week 2:

Week 2
Rank (Last week)
1)(2) New Orleans Saints (1-0): Their offense did not look great at times, but did enough along with the defense to stifle the Vikings.
2)(3) Green Bay Packers (1-0): They looked very strong until they knocked out QB Kevin Kolb and had to adapt to QB Mike Vick.
3(4) Baltimore Ravens (1-0): They did enough to silence the brass Jets team and took the victory and should have more success against lesser defenses.
4(6) New England Patriots (1-0): For all the talking the Jets did this offseason, the Patriots look to be the better squad with an offense that can put a lot of points up.
5)(1) Indianapolis Colts (0-1): They struggled stopping the run, but should correct that problem as the season progresses. This team always finds a way to win when it matters.
6)(5) Minnesota Vikings (0-1): They found a way to slow down a very good Saints' offense and minus a couple drives; this team would be 1-0 and not 0-1.
7)(13) Houston Texans (1-0): They ran over the Colts, but now the bullseye is on them and how will they handle that pressure?
8)(11) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0): They were written off with QB Dennis Dixon at the helm, but their defense carried them to a win.
9)(14) Tennessee Titans (1-0): HB Chris Johnson gets to see if he can run around and over a tough Steelers' defense.
10)(7) Dallas Cowboys (0-1): Another week, more questions about their offensive ineffectiveness.
11)(8) New York Jets (0-1): Their defense can not play 60 minutes. Their offensive has no passing nor running game.
12)(10) San Diego Chargers (0-1): They might not cruise to the division crown after all and certainly miss WR Vincent Jackson.
13)(12) Atlanta Falcons (0-1): They could not convert one or more plays that might have allowed them to win.
14)(15) Miami Dolphins (1-0): They barely won against a bad Bills team. They need to step it up when they face tougher teams.
15)(9) Cincinnati Bengals (0-1): Some might wonder if they didn't realize the season started before halftime. A bad start for a team with big aspirations.
16)(20) Washington Redskins (1-0): Their win came from one big defensive play and their confidence will be high against the Texans, the other Texas team.
17)(17) New York Giants (1-0): They were victorious, but were very sloppy which involved QB Eli Manning not looking sharp.
18)(18) Philadelphia Eagles (0-1): Having QB Kevin Kolb go down with a concussion might be a blessing in disguise.
19)(23) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0): They might be capable of finishing out games this year.
20)(21) Arizona Cardinals (1-0): They barely escaped against the Rams and there might be a few bumps in the road this year.
21)(16) San Francisco 49ers (0-1): They got a rude awakening against the Seahawks and Mike Singletary will rally the troops around the loss, but it won't be easy.
22)(25) Seattle Seahawks (1-0): Pete Carroll certainly made a splash in his first week back and it came against a divisional foe.
23)(24) Chicago Bears (1-0): They barely survived a controversial not score for the Lions. They will take it.
24)(27) Kansas City Chiefs (1-0): Talk about making an impact. Their special teams might be dangerous this year along with some new plays on both sides of the ball.
25)(19) Denver Broncos (0-1): Not the way the Broncos wanted to start 2010.
26)(22) Carolina Panthers (0-1): QB Matt Moore was not very good and questions around how long he will continue to start will certainly only intensify.
27)(28) Detroit Lions (0-1): Not only did they fall short with a not catch by WR Calvin Johnson, but look to be without QB Matthew Stafford for at least one week.
28)(26) Oakland Raiders (0-1): Some thought the Raiders would be improved, but that looked like the same Raiders on Sunday.
29)(30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0): Not a great performance, but when the other team was worse; that leads to a win.
30)(31) St. Louis Rams (0-1): They looked more aggressive and were very close to getting a win against the Cardinals and draw another favorable opponent this week.
31)(29) Cleveland Browns (0-1): Their offense struggled and QB Jake Delhomme looked bad physically and in his play.
32)(32) Buffalo Bills (0-1): They came close to beating the Dolphins, but not many positives to take away besides the score of the game.

The Steelers and Titans feature a top 10 matchup this week along with the Patriots facing the Jets, who are right outside of the top 10.

College Football Week 3 Power Rankings

2010-09-13T20:52:00.004-04:00

The second week provided much of the same as the first week as multiple top teams clashed with Alabama and Ohio State emerging still as the top two teams

TOP 25 (Entering Week 3)
Rank(last week)
1)(1) Alabama: at Duke
2)(2) Ohio State: vs Ohio
3)(3) Boise State: at Wyoming
4)(4) TCU: vs Baylor
5)(7) Oregon: vs Portland State
6)(5) Texas: at Texas Tech
7)(6) Nebraska: at Washington
8)(9) Iowa: at #24 Arizona
9)(10) Oklahoma: vs Air Force
10)(8) Florida: at Tennessee
11)(12) Wisconsin: vs Arizona State
12)(15) Arkansas: at Georgia
13)(18) LSU: vs Mississippi State
14)(20) Utah: at New Mexico
15)(11) Miami (FL): IDLE
16)(19) Auburn: vs Clemson
17)(NR) South Carolina: vs Furman
18)(21) USC: at Minnesota
19)(24) Stanford: vs Wake Forest
20)(NR) Michigan: vs Massachusetts
21)(23) West Virginia: vs Maryland
22)(17) Penn State: vs Kent State
23)(16) Florida State: vs Brigham Young
24)(NR) Arizona: vs #8 Iowa
25)(NR) Oregon State: vs Louisville

Dropped out: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Georgia, and Pittsburgh

The next best 5 for Week 3:

Houston: at UCLA
Pittsburgh:
Georgia: vs #12 Arkansas
Georgia Tech: at North Carolina
Fresno State: at Utah State

Not as much top 25 action this week, but #9 Iowa goes to #24 Arizona in what should be a good one. And some other top 25 teams could be on upset alert.

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings and Preview

2010-09-07T23:58:00.005-04:00

After roughly seven months, important NFL action is about to finally commence. The New Orleans Saints enter as defending champions and the Indianapolis Colts look to buck the trend of teams losing in the Super Bowl and struggling the following year. And the two conference runner-ups, the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC and the New York Jets in the AFC, also enter with high expectations. Not to mention, the Dallas Cowboys are looking to be the first team to host a Super Bowl and play in the game.

Before we get to the slate of games, time to unveil the first set of power rankings.

Week 1
1) Indianapolis Colts: They still have Peyton Manning at the helm and should win at least 12 games again. The health of key players besides Manning will ultimately determine if they can get back to the Super Bowl
2) New Orleans Saints: They are the defending champions and defeated QBs Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, and Peyton Manning to achieve that. They have almost the same team back and should contend again.
3) Green Bay Packers: It might be time to start talking about QB Aaron Rodgers as one of the best quarterbacks playing today. They look to have a dynamic offense and dangerous defense; both featuring players on the rise.
4) Baltimore Ravens: A team once known for its defense now has an offense that might be better. QB Joe Flacco and HB Ray Rice are starting to peak as young players and now Flacco has WRs Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
5) Minnesota Vikings: QB Brett Favre returns and as does hopes for another Super Bowl run. Not having WR Sidney Rice for at least half the year and WR Percy Harvin's trouble staying on the field lately might hurt their chances.
6) New England Patriots: It is hard to discount this team again this year as QB Tom Brady looks ready to make another run to the postseason and gets a surprise: the early return of his favorite weapon, WR Wes Welker. Their defense will be tested though.
7) Dallas Cowboys: They did not look especially sharp this preseason, but will get their prize addition, WR Dez Bryant, finally on the field. The pressure will high again and anything short of the Super Bowl might mean some changes.
8) New York Jets: They have shutdown CB Darrelle Revis back and will depend on their defense greatly if they are to match or exceed the expectations set by coach Rex Ryan. Look to '00 Ravens and '02 Bucs for examples of such defenses/offenses.
9) Cincinnati Bengals: Their defense was much better last year as they won the AFC North and add WR Terrell Owens, who still warrants attention, and will open the field up for WR Chad Ochocinco.
10) San Diego Chargers: They are one of trendy picks in recent years, but will probably take a step back without key players like WR Vincent Jackson and OT Marcus McNeil. QB Phillip Rivers will be asked to do a lot more than in the past.
11) Pittsburgh Steelers: Call it a bit of stretch, but this team might not do as bad as some expect during the first four games without QB Ben Roethlisberger. SS Troy Polamulu is back and the defense will again be a strength.
12) Atlanta Falcons: QB Matt Ryan should have a similar breakout year like fellow young QB Joe Flacco. This offense has a couple deep threats, a good run game, and have TE Tony Gonzalez for clutch plays. They might find themselves being able to challenge the Saints.
13) Houston Texans: Their offense was very good without a running game. HB Arian Foster has impressed many in the preseason and might give them a balanced attack to go with a defense on the rise. They look to have the potential to make their first postseason. Unseating the Colts in the division is another story.
14) Tennessee Titans: HB Chris Johnson will be as dynamic as last year, but this team will have QB Vince Young at the helm for all 16 games and that might mean a continuation of the late success they had in going 6-2 after a rough first half.
15) Miami Dolphins: The talk in the AFC East is all about the Jets and Patriots. This team has some young talent and not to mention adding WR Brandon Marshall give this team a great chance to succeed.
16) San Francisco 49ers: The retirement of QB Kurt Warner from the Cardinals has opened up the division and this team looks to be the team in the best position to claim the NFC West crown. Their defense should carry them while their offense develops.
17) New York Giants: Their defense collapses completely in December. They should be better under new Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell. Also QB Eli Manning helped develop multiple young WRs,who should be better this year.
18) Philadelphia Eagles: QB Kevin Kolb is still a work in progress and it is to be expected that the team will take a bit of a step back without QB Donovan McNabb at the helm. QB Mike Vick could be a wildcard on offense.
19) Denver Broncos: QB Kyle Orton is not a flashy quarterback, but is a highly capable one. Their defense will suffer a bit without DE/LB Elvis Dumervil, but QB Tim Tebow could be an interesting weapon on offense that gives them an extra dimension on goal line and 3rd and short plays.
20) Washington Redskins: Getting QB Donovan McNabb will improve their offense as their new OTs. TE Chris Cooley could have a big year. And even though DT Albert Haynesworth has been a major storyline; the defense should still be stout.
21) Arizona Cardinals: Losing QB Kurt Warner will cause a drop off, but there are still big time players like WR Larry Fitzgerald and enough weapons to keep them in games.
22) Carolina Panthers: QB Matt Moore will be on a short leash with QB Jimmy Clausen waiting in the wings. The duel running backs, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, will be asked to carry much of the load for this team.
23) Jacksonville Jaguars: HB Maurice Jones-Drew should be solid. The questions surround defensive pressure and if QB David Garrard can stabilize the passing game.
24) Chicago Bears: Not too sure how QB Jay Cutler will adjust to the Mike Martz offense. If he throws half as many picks as last year, they might be a team that sneaks up on teams.
25) Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll has taken over at the helm and made a bunch of changes. QB Matt Hasselback looks healthy for now and have a handful of nice young guys.
26) Oakland Raiders: They took small steps late last year and during the offseason at improving the team. They might make a run at .500 this year after so many years of futility.
27) Kansas City Chiefs: They have a nice young nucleus after multiple drafts including 2010. Plus add in some veteran leaders like LB Mike Vrabel and the new coaching additions and this team might be a surprise team in the AFC West and around the NFL.
28) Detroit Lions: They have a nice young offense and an improved front line on defense. They might actually win more than 4 games this year if everyone is healthy.
29) Cleveland Browns: They have a more established quarterback starting, but still have several holes including that quarterback at times.
30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Josh Freeman should continue to develop and they should display more consistency on both sides of the ball while still struggling.
31) St. Louis Rams: QB Sam Bradford showed good signs of things to come in the last couple preseason games and have a chance to win game 1 and inspire confidence this year.
32) Buffalo Bills: HB C.J. Spiller will certainly add something to their offense, but the rest of the team will struggle especially on offense.

Now to turn to Week 1's slate of games.

TOP 4 OF THE WEEK

Thursday Night Kickoff Game
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: The Saints open up the Superdome for another season and the excitement would be high to being with. However, the team is unfurling their championship banner and celebrating their Super Bowl win one last time. The team they draw is the team they beat to get to the Super Bowl. And that guy Brett Favre is back for the Vikings. This has the potential to echo that 30-30 game last January. WR Sidney Rice will be out for the first two months and Favre will need to lean on HB Adrian Peterson and clutch passes. Favre had possibly his best year at age 40 last year and will have that stress on his mind. QB Drew Brees leads one of the most dangerous offenses and time well tell if the defense can put on an echo from a year ago. Regardless of how high the score is; it will be close. Field goal kick separation. PREDICTION: SAINTS

Sunday Night: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: The Cowboys are coming off their first playoff win in over a decade and the Redskins begin the Mike Shanahan/Donovan McNabb era. This rivalry has been close despite the Cowboys having more overall success against the rest of the NFL. QB Tony Romo again will be under the radar to perform as he tests out his new weapon, rookie WR Dez Bryant. Expect a similar low scoring close game based on Washington getting used to some new plays and Dallas' less than dynamic offense so far. A big play could make the difference from defense or special teams. PREDICTION: COWBOYS

Monday Night: Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets: Rex Ryan goes up against the team that he helped craft on defense. LB Ray Lewis is not happy with Ryan and the Jets' bravado entering the season. The Jets' defense will ultimately decide the winner. If they can keep the Ravens out of the endzone, it will open the door for the Jets to score enough to win. That has to be the strategy because the Jets have to be kidding themselves if they think their offense is viable. Their run game will struggle and Baltimore's improved offense should fine the holes that CB Darrelle Revis cannot cover. PREDICTION: RAVENS

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: There haven't been too many more lopsided series like this one. The Colts hold a 15-1 edge in the series. However, the Texans got one of those wins two years ago and came close twice last year to getting the better of their division rivals. The Colts are coming off a Super Bowl loss, but doubt that will impact this game at all. QB Peyton Manning should be able to use a full arsenal of receivers to outduel QB Matt Schaub and his strong arm and top target, WR Andre Johnson. The wildcard could be HB Arian Foster. He has gathered some hype as a breakout star and the Colts have struggled with the run in the past. However, Manning gets the Colts on pace for another strong year and torment the Texans once more. PREDICTION: COLTS

THE REST

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: This could be a hard-nosed AFC East battle. The Dolphins' offense with WR Brandon Marshall has the potential to take a step forward with a nice young quarterback in Chad Henne at the helm for the whole year. HB C.J. Spiller might provide some excitement for Bills' fans, but their offense does not look any better than last year when scoring a touchdown seemed like a stretch. PREDICTION: DOLPHINS

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Both teams looked improved from last year as young guys like QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson on offense and a fierce defensive line have the Lions looking like a serious team while the Bears have a pass rusher in DE Julius Peppers and a new offense for QB Jay Cutler to run under the guidance of Mike Martz as Offensive Coordinator. Cutler has a couple nice young receivers, who could begin to display their talent this week. This as the makings of a back and forth battle with some lead changes. The Bears get the last score. PREDICTION: BEARS

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans: Oakland, good luck slowing down HB Chris Johnson. He should cross the century mark and if QB Vince Young can protect the ball; this should not be that close. However, the Raiders could show signs if they are going to turn the ship around this year. PREDICTION: TITANS

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: Both teams feature defensive question marks that accompany strong offenses. The Bengals made strides last year and will be pressed to duplicate that success while the Patriots have struggled on defense the last two years after having be their strength. WR Wes Welker's return could be a wildcard depending on how much he plays and how effective he is. He looked good in the preseason so that should be a strong indicator. QB Tom Brady is still a top quarterback and that guy WR Randy Moss is still a top receiver. Both are edges for the Pats over their contemporaries on the Bengals. PREDICTION: PATRIOTS

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers: Game 1 under QB Dennis Dixon. The Steelers will be tested on offense, but many are forgetting the defense is back to full strength and could be a difference maker. QB Matt Ryan might be poised to elevate his game in year 3 for the Falcons. He definitely has the quarterback edge over Dixon, but the rest of the team matchups are more important. The Steelers have also been strong at home in recent seasons. PREDICTION: STEELERS

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: These ended their seasons last year as the Panthers embarrassed the Giants as Old Giants Stadium was being closed. It should be a different type of game this time around as the Giants' defense should be a lot better. QB Eli Manning has his core receivers back for a second year to mature them while QB Matt Moore has some questions around him including his job security. PREDICTION: GIANTS

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This is a battle between two of the worse 5 teams. Both showed some signs of getting a little better during the month of December last year. I would say the play of the quarterback for the sake of its position will probably be a large factor. If one commits more turnovers than the other, it would be correlate to that quarterback being on the losing team. Should be interesting to see if KR/PR Josh Cribbs can break some big plays like last year. PREDICTION: BUCCANEERS

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars: Both teams underachieved last year especially the Broncos, who started 6-0 and missed the playoffs. Not too sure how much he will play, but backup QB Tim Tebow will return to Florida and the area he is from for his first official NFL game. This should be a close game decided late in the 4th quarter with a deep pass. PREDICTION: BRONCOS

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: Almost ironic that the team that let go of one legend quarterback plays another that let go of the best quarterback in their franchise history. QB Aaron Rodgers has panned out so far; the same might be said of QB Kevin Kolb, but not yet. The Packers are dangerous on both sides of the ball, but expect the Eagles' defense to be about as strong as usual and give the Packers' offense a few headaches. Eagles keep it closer than expected, but Packers have too many tools. PREDICTION: PACKERS

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams: QB Sam Bradford starts his official NFL career against QB Derek Anderson trying to reclaim some consistency at the position with a new team. The Cardinals are in transition as they adjust to life without QB Kurt Warner and WR Anquan Boldin, who was a redzone machine when healthy. The shaky play by both quarterbacks will keep this one knotted up to the end. It could be sloppy at times. The Rams are very capable of equaling their win total of 2009 in Week 1. PREDICTION: CARDINALS

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: The 49ers have a lot of buzz and if they are to win the NFC West it might as well start with the team that dominated the division in the mid part of the 2000s. Pete Carroll has reshaped the Seahawks this offseason and has put nice pieces around QB Matt Hasselbeck, who is a solid quarterback when healthy. The 49ers defense led by LB Patrick Willis could be the x-factor in terms of how difficult they make it for the Seattle offense. A statement game of sorts for both. PREDICTION: 49ers

Monday Night: San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: San Diego kicks off another season on Monday night and they get an underdog in their division again. The Chargers barely survived last year's opener against the Raiders and something says this year will be a close one again as the Chargers adjust to a couple holdouts and some changes. QB Phillip Rivers is a solid quarterback, but not perfect. The Chiefs have been adding some nice young players through early draft picks and their special teams might be dangerous again like it was when they had KR/PR Dante Hall. The Chargers, though, have enough talent to outlast mistakes and a couple surprises from the Cheifs at home. PREDICTION: CHARGERS

Week 1 is finally here and there should be some exciting games and none more than possibly opening night when the Saints open their championship defense.

College Football: Week 2 Preview

2010-09-07T22:07:00.006-04:00

The most excitement from week 1 came from the last game of the week as QB Kellen Moore rose his Heisman stock and his team's stock for a BCS championship game appearance with a 4th quarter comeback against Virginia Tech in what many would say was virtually a home game for the Hokies despite it being played in Maryland. Most top squad held their ground while the three teams mentioned last week (Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma) showed some signs of being a little rusty and going through a feeling out process with new players starting.

On opening night, Ohio State and Miami (FL) both looked very good on both sides of the ball against inferior talent as they prepare for a collision this week. While USC won, but their defense looked horrible. Against better teams, that might come back to bite them. As stated, Florida had some early trouble against Miami (OH); Texas did not look especially great against Rice; and Oklahoma barely got by Utah State. Teams that did not struggle at all were Iowa and Florida State. And Oregon might have had the most dominant opening game. Both Notre Dame and Michigan looked very good with some new pieces in place and their match this week is a must watch.

In terms of my top 5 game picks, I went 4-1 to start to season and it took an overtime game to keep me from 5-0. Illinois did enough to slow Missouri down and entered half time with a lead, but the second half was dominated by Missouri as they scored 20 unanswered points and shut down the Illini leading the way for their victory. In a thrilling game on opening night, Pittsburgh overcame an 11 point deficit in the 4th quarter to the game and force overtime after Utah played very good defense for the first 3 quarters. In overtime, one big mistake by Pittsburgh QB Tino Sunseri led to an interception and set up the game winning field goal for the Utes a couple plays later. Utah's win was a statement that they are not to be slept on. A lot of credit has to go out to North Carolina this week as they might have come up short against LSU, but considering they were undermanned; they almost escaped with a big win. LSU slowly piled up a big lead at half time before North Carolina QB T.J. Yates led a 4th comeback that fell ultimately short at the end as LSU won by less than a touchdown. The results puts a spotlight on both for different reasons.

TCU utilized the possession game to outlast Oregon State in what was a close battle. TCU QB Andy Dalton depended more on his legs at times as he struggled through the air while the Badgers could not keep the Horned Frogs off the field and thus leaving a star like HB Jacquizz Rodgers on the sideline more than Oregon State would have preferred. TCU's defense late was similar to the level we saw last year. And in the main event, as mentioned, Boise State led by QB Kellen Moore got the final laugh in a game that had both teams with all the momentum. Boise jumped out to 17-0 lead going into the second quarter before Virginia Tech dominated most of the 2nd and 3rd quarters and led late until that final score by Moore to WR Austin Pettis and shook up the BCS again. It will take a full season depending on how much each wins to know what Boise State's potential BCS fate will be. Regardless, Boise stunned most in attendance and many watching at home and showed that they can play with the big boys.

Now on to Week 2 with a bunch of big games.

Games featuring top 25 teams/some that might be interesting:

Thursday, September 9
No. 21 Auburn at Mississippi State: A bit of an intriguing matchup in the SEC early in the season. Auburn rebounded last year in the SEC, but must beware of a Bulldogs team at home.

Friday, September 10
No. 23 West Virginia at Marshall: An instate rivalry that could be closer because of its intensity and bragging rights.

Saturday, September 11
San Jose State at No. 11 Wisconsin: Nothing too fancy, but a solid running attack and solid defense from Wisconsin in this one.

No. 15 Georgia Tech at Kansas: Kansas did not look very good last week and might be overmatched against the spread offense of Georgia Tech.

South Florida at No. 8 Florida: Florida looked sloppy and should correct errors they made this week or else worries and doubts might begin to start in Gainesville.

Idaho at No. 6 Nebraska: This one could get ugly if Nebraska is clicking.

James Madison at No. 13 Virginia Tech: It should be interesting to see how Virginia Tech responds after losing to Boise State. This should be a game to get their mojo back.

Iowa State at No. 9 Iowa: Not much of a game here. Iowa might flirt with a shut out with a balanced attack on both sides.

UNLV at No. 20 Utah: Utah can back up their overtime victory with a blowout win. Or will they have a let down?

Tennessee Tech at No. 4 TCU: This one should not be as challenging for TCU this week and could turn into a rout by halftime.

Wyoming at No. 5 Texas: Texas was not especially great against Rice and must beware of coming out too slow again cause Wyoming could find a way to make this one a game.

No. 7 Oregon at Tennessee: Can Tennessee's defense restrain Oregon's offense enough to keep this one close? The success of the Vols' defense will dictate if Tennessee can spring the upset or least keep this one to a 3 score differential.

Louisiana-Monroe at No. 14 Arkansas: Arkansas can continue to take steps to show they might challenge in the SEC.

No. 19 LSU at Vanderbilt: LSU goes on the road a week after surviving a late scare against the Tar Heels. Vanderbilt might be upset-minded.

Virginia at No. 16 USC: USC should win, but how will their defense perform against an offense not as pass oriented as Hawaii's is.

No. 25 Stanford at UCLA: Stanford is among the top teams in the conference and have one of the better quarterbacks; both the team and quarterback look to show up an instate rival.

And of course, the top 5 games to watch this week.

Top 5
5) Michigan at Notre Dame: These two most years have compelling matchups. This year is not different. The two enter unranked again, but the winner could find themselves in the top 25 next week after a second solid win and performance. Michigan QB Denard Robinson has been exciting to watch after just one game and will keep the Irish defense on their heels. Last year, Notre Dame came up short at the end. I can almost see another close game with a late score to seal the game. Notre Dame avenges last year lost, but struggles slowing Robinson down completely. PREDICTION: NOTRE DAME

4) No. 22 Georgia at No. 24 South Carolina: An early hard-nosed battle between border rivals. This game was largely impacted by the ruling of Georgia WR A.J. Green's lengthy suspension. He is a game-changer and allows the Gamecock defense to zero in on other players not as dynamic. South Carolina did look pretty good in their opening game, but Georgia finds a way to score late and use enough defense to escape. PREDICTION: GEORGIA

3) No. 18 Penn State at No. 1 Alabama: Joe Paterno leads his Nittany Lions down to Tuscaloosa against the top team in the land, who will still be without their Heisman trophy winning running back. Joe Pa's young freshman QB Rob Bolden seems to have some poise, but it will be a tough environment. HB Trent Richardson for the Tide will give Penn State some headaches with his speed and power. Penn State keeps it close early before talent starts to separate the teams before halftime. PREDICTION: ALABAMA

2) No. 17 Florida State at No. 10 Oklahoma: Oklahoma was a bit rusty against Utah State while Florida State opened the season looking explosive on offense. Oklahoma is home and that should play a bit of factor in them being able to play more consistent this week. For most of the game, QB Christian Ponder from Florida State and QB Landry Jones from Oklahoma might enter a duel, but the running game of Oklahoma will separate the two teams later in the game. As a side story, Florida State's Defensive Coordinator is the brother of Oklahoma Head Coach, Bob Stoops. The Sooners reclaim their swagger. PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA

1) No. 12 Miami (FL) at No. 2 Ohio State: This week's featured game takes place in Columbus, OH. The two quarterbacks, Jacory Harris (Miami) and Tyrelle Pryor (Ohio State), know each other off the field and could make for an interesting rivalry between the two on and off the field during the game. Pryor's athleticism will the Hurricanes' defense on their toes. Harris will have to show he can have poise especially in the red zone, where he struggled at times last year. Jim Tressel's Ohio State success has been predicated on opportunities. Miami must protect the ball if they hope to stun the Buckeyes on the road. Harris will make one or two costly mistakes like he did at times last year. PREDICTION: OHIO STATE

This is the first big weekend of the year with a few big impact games. Should be interesting to see who performs and who struggles.

College Football Week 2 Power Rankings

2010-09-07T21:02:00.005-04:00

The first week of college football had few surprises, some sloppy play by a couple top teams, and a nailbiter to finish the weekend out with Boise State over Virginia Tech. Time for this week's rankings.

TOP 25 (Entering Week 2)
1) Alabama (last:1) vs. #17 Penn State
2) Ohio State (last:2) vs. #11 Miami (FL)
3) Boise State (last:3) IDLE
4) TCU (last:6) vs. Tennessee Tech
5) Texas (last:4) vs. Wyoming
6) Nebraska (last:8) vs. Idaho
7) Oregon (last:11) at Tennessee
8) Florida (last:5) vs. USF
9) Iowa (last:9) vs. Iowa State
10) Oklahoma (last:7) vs. #16 Florida State
11) Miami (FL) (last: 12) at #2 Ohio State
12) Wisconsin (last: 13) vs. San Jose State
13) Virginia Tech (last:10) vs. James Madison
14) Georgia Tech (last: 15) at Kansas
15) Arkansas (last:19) at. LA-Monroe
16) Florida State (last: 18) at #10 Oklahoma
17) Penn State (last: 17) at #1 Alabama
18) LSU (last: 21) at Vanderbilt
19) Auburn (last: 22) at Mississippi State
20) Utah (last: NR) vs. UNLV
21) USC (last: 20) vs. Virginia
22) Georgia (last: 23) at South Carolina
23) West Virginia (last: NR) at Marshall
24) Stanford (last: NR) at UCLA
25) Pittsburgh (last: 14) vs New Hampshire

Dropped out: Oregon State, North Carolina, and Cincinnati

The next best 5 for Week 2:
Oregon State: IDLE
Houston: vs. UTEP
South Carolina: vs. #22 Georgia
Michigan: at Notre Dame
Notre Dame: vs. Michigan

College Football: Week 1 Preview

2010-09-01T21:37:00.005-04:00

After nearly 8 months, college football is back. Alabama enters as the defending national champion and have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in HB Mark Ingram. They are still a top 5 team and have a great chance at repeating this year. But they will have a lot of competition from some usual suspects. Ohio State with QB Tyrelle Pryor has the Buckeyes poised to make another title run. Ingram and Pryor could also be two top contenders for the Heisman this year. Texas, Florida, and Oklahoma might have graduated potentially the great quarterbacks in each of their schools, but all three will be top teams in 2010. They have experienced coaches and teams looking to show that they are still top programs if not national championship contenders. And, less we forget about the small (yet mighty) Boise State. They open with Virginia Tech; showing they are willing to leave the Blue Turf and face top talent. They survive the Hokies at FedEx Field on Labor Day; they might make a serious run at a bid for the national championship game as they are ranked in the top 5.

So, like last year, it is time to lay out the top games and other intriguing matchups for this week.

Games featuring top 25 teams/some that might be interesting:

Thursday, September 2
Marshall at No. 2 Ohio State: QB Tyrelle Pryor is due for a big year and we might get a highlight of his and the Buckeyes' success in this game.

Florida A&M at No. 13 Miami (FL): The "U" came back onto the scene last year and this might be a statement game for them to let the college football world that last year was only the beginning of the rebound for one of the nation's best programs. QB Jacory Harris will look to start the 2010 year strong.

Southern Miss at South Carolina: Coach Steve Spurrier has done a good job at South Carolina, but they are expecting more than .500. Spurrier has an outstanding 19-1 opening game record.

No. 14 USC at Hawaii: The next two years will be challenging for Trojan players, but they will use that time to make a statement to the rest of the college football universe. These players were not part of the team when the penalties took place and will have an "us vs the world" mentality for much of the year.

Saturday, September 4
Miami (OH) at No. 4 Florida: The post-Tim Tebow era begins and the start of the John Brantley era starts Saturday in Gainesville. He is a more traditional quarterback and has a lot of talent. Many will be surprised as he emerges from Tebow's shadow.

Youngstown State at No. 19 Penn State: Joe Pa is still at the helm and the team still looks to be talented enough to challenge for a Big Ten title.

Samford at No. 20 Florida State: Florida State has been Bobby Bowden's program for over three decades. The Jimbo Fisher commences against Samford. The team looks to be talented enough to try to regain form in the ACC. Will take much of the year for Fisher to show that he can do what his predecessor did a lot of: winning.

Eastern Illinois at No. 9 Iowa: Iowa was one of the best teams a year ago and look to be that again. They were 10-0 before they lost their quarterback, Ricky Stanzi. Stanzi is back and healthy and they might make another run at an undefeated season, the Big Ten title, and possibly a national championship game appearance.

Louisiana-Lafayette at No. 23 Georgia: WR A.J. Green is one of the best receivers in the country and he will play a big part in Georgia challenging Florida in the SEC East.

South Carolina State at No. 16 Georgia Tech: Coach Paul Johnson for Georgia Tech instituted a tough offense to slow down a year ago. HB Josh Nesbitt is a threat at back and receiver and the option is always in play for the Yellow Jackets. When they are running on all cylinders they are a tricky team to figure out.

Weber State at Boston College: This is on my radar for one reason: LB Mark Herzlich. If anyone recalls, Herzlich missed last season due to cancer treatment. He is back and the Golden Eagles could win the ACC this year. But more importantly it shows that anything is possible with faith and determination.

No. 5 Texas vs. Rice* (at Reliant Stadium): QB Garrett Gilbert got unexpected experience in last year's BCS national championship game against Alabama. QB Colt McCoy went down early and played fairly well for 1. not expecting to play and 2. the fact he was playing a team as good as Alabama defensively. Because of that, I do not expect much of a drop off for the Longhorns this year and Gilbert will prove that from game one.

New Mexico at No. 11 Oregon: USC's fall from grace has opened the door wide open in the Pac-10 and Oregon might be the best team in that conference. They no longer have a troubled quarterback or running back from a year ago. They have a balanced team and might finally cash in on a lot of process over the last three years.

Coastal Carolina at No. 25 West Virginia: West Virginia still remains a contender to win the Big East and potentially play spoiler for some teams. They definitely are not as good as they were under Rich Rodriquez and it could be a make or break year for Bill Stewart.

Purdue at Notre Dame: Charlie Weis is out and Brian Kelly is in. Can Kelly change over a decade and a half of struggles for the most part? How much will the losses of QB Jimmy Clausen and WR Golden Tate affect the offense? They open with Purdue, whom they have been able to beat in a recent years. But Kelly and the Fighting Irish will be on the radar again this year largely based on their name recognition and polarizing love/hate sentiment they draw.

Connecticut at Michigan: Rich Rodriquez was the man at West Virginia. Big East titles. BCS bowl games. But his tenure at Michigan has been less than stellar finishing below .500 both years and not playing in a bowl game. That does not fly well at Michigan. And things might get worse as he has to open at the Big House with Connecticut. Connecticut might not be on the level of Ohio State, per say, but they have been on the up in recent years and could make a run in the Big East. It would not be too shocking for the Huskies to stun the Wolverines. It would not be like Appalachian State, but an upset nonetheless.

San Jose State at No. 1 Alabama: The title defense begins with San Jose State and without Heisman Trophy HB Mark Ingram in the backfield. Ingram will be out for at least this game if not part of the first month. But the Tide should roll over the Aztecs.

Utah State at No. 7 Oklahoma: QB Landry Jones was able to get a lot of playing time while QB Sam Bradford was out last year. Bradford is now in the NFL and Jones will keep the Sooner offense moving strong ahead. The Big 12 looks to be another Texas or Oklahoma year and these first games get a sneak peak of how good these teams are.

Western Kentucky at No. 8 Nebraska: Nebraska is headed to the Big Ten next year and is looking to go out with a bang. Do not be surprised if they win the Big 12 North and then challenge whomever emerges from the annual Texas-Oklahoma game as the winner. Bo Pollini has built up a program that lost some of its luster into a serious team.

Tennessee Tech at No. 17 Arkansas: The SEC is a tough conference to maneuver, but with QB Ryan Mallet; the Razorbacks will be in the thick of the conversation.

Arkansas State at No. 22 Auburn: Auburn has had to play second fiddle to in state rival, Alabama, for the last few years. But Gene Chizik has the Tigers back to form and could be in the SEC heat of things this year after signs they showed last year.

Washington at BYU: QB Jake Locker returned for another year and he will be a major part of if the Huskies can contender in the Pac-10. BYU has been a top 25 in the last couple years, but they lose QB Max Hall and their play will most likely highlight that lost. Could be one of the closer and better games of the first weekend with so many lopsided matchups.

Texas State at Houston: QB Case Keenum was one of the best candidates last year and had himself on Heisman short lists and the Cougars as potential BCS busters. They fell apart down the stretch a bit, but should be a team to watch again this year.

Cincinnati at Fresno State: A new era begins in Cincinnati under Butch Jones. The Bearcats lost a few key players, but remain a team to watch in the Big East. Fresno State is usually an interesting team in recent years. As a Rutgers' alum, it also pits the two teams whom Rutgers lost to on Labor Day/opening weekend the last two years.

No. 12 Wisconsin at UNLV: HB John Clay is an underrated running back and should display his talent against the Rebels. The Badgers are also a top team in the Big Ten and will battle at the end of the season for the conference crown.

Top 5
5) 9/4: Illinois vs. Missouri (at the Edward Jones Dome): These two have been entangled in a renewed rivalry in recent years. The two have swapped victories in recent years with Missouri winning last year. Missouri took a small step back since they lost QB Chase Daniel, but Illinois has been in a slow freefall after a great 9-3 campaign a couple years ago. I expected a good game a year ago, but Missouri blew out Illinois. It should be closer, but not sure if like the thriller of a couple years ago. Two unheralded programs looking for recognition. Missouri looks to have the better team again this year. PICK: MISSOURI

4) 9/2: No. 15 Pittsburgh at Utah: HB Dion Lewis burst onto the scene last year as a freshman. He will counted on this year to carry the offense and Pitt is a heavy favorite to win the Big East after the last few years of rebuilding the program to prominence. Utah has been of the best teams not in a BCS power conference. They look to be a bit down from recent years, but are not a walk in the park for the Panthers. Utah has not had a lot of success against top teams minus Alabama in the Sugar Bowl a couple years ago. Hosting the Panthers can make this matchup a little closer. But, Pittsburgh has enough of a bang to hold off the Utes. PICK: PITTSBURGH

3) 9/4: No. 21 LSU vs. No. 18 North Carolina (at the Georgia Dome): An already tough game just got tougher for the Tar Heels, who will be without 12 starters. The game is at a neutral site, so they have that going for them, but LSU is a traditional powerhouse in the powerhouse conference. The Tigers will ask a lot from QB Jordan Jefferson this year and if they weren't already favored; they should be now. Never count out a football team dealing with adversity because many times they respond better than expected. However, LSU is simply good enough where it will be tough to overcome all those losses for North Carolina. PICK: LSU

2) 9/4: No. 24 Oregon State vs. No. 6 TCU (at Cowboys Stadium): TCU the last couple years as elevated to serious contender status among non-BCS conference schools. They have a stellar defense and a quarterback in Andrew Dalton with poise. They look to make a statement against another top 25 school in Oregon State featuring the two Rodgers brothers, who have explosive play potential. Jacquizz, at running back, and James, at receiver, must both be accounted for. TCU is still looking for respect and a victory against Oregon State opens the way for another run at a perfect regular season. Oregon State, in their own right, sees a wide open Pac-10 and are about ready to get over the hump and have fallen just short of Rose Bowl in recent years. PICK: TCU

1) 9/6: No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 10 Virginia Tech (at FedEx Field): Most would say that this is the game of the week. It features two top 10 teams. The game is on Monday night. It features a top team from the ACC and a team, whom many believe to be the best school not in a BCS conference. Boise State has a very favorable schedule after this one if they were to win and are ranked in the top 3, which gives them a great chance to possibly play for the BCS national championship. The Broncos have beaten Oklahoma, a very good TCU team, and Oregon. They feature QB Kellen Moore who threw 39 touchdowns and 3 interceptions a year ago. Not too shabby. Plus he is a legit Heisman contender. This one looks to be a defensive battle despite Moore and the Boise State offense and HB Ryan Williams in the Virgina Tech's backfield. The two teams might feature top 10 defenses to go with their top 10 rankings. QB Tyrod Taylor could be a wildcard as his play might dictate how the Hokies play. He has Mike Vick potential, the last truly good quarterback they have had. This one is a true tough call. I think a trick play might be a difference maker in the second half. The location is neutral, but favors Virginia Tech. But Boise State has had enough of being taken lightly and will not be fazed. PICK: BOISE STATE

There are only a few really exciting games, but college football is back and that is excitement enough.

The Art of Politicking

2010-08-30T23:50:00.004-04:00

Often times in politics, the biggest battle is not over policy, but over message. That has certainly been the case during President Obama's first two years. He has set out to accomplish much and has done quite a few big things that involve health care and financial reform. The economy was largely an issue given to him that he has addressed with about as much success as one could hope for. That is why an article by Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne caught my eye. He lays out much of the successes of Obama's administration and all the obstacles thrown his way. But most important was the president's lack of politicking to get all those accomplishments out to the voters and ingrained into their minds. He has tried to salvage that in recent weeks, but the damage might be done with two months to go until the 2010 Midterm Elections.

Dionne's words:

President Obama's address to the nation on Iraq this week underscores the agony of his presidency and its core political problem.

Seen from the inside, the administration is an astonishing success. Obama has kept his principal promises and can take credit for achievements that eluded his Democratic predecessors.

He pledged to have all combat troops out of Iraq by the end of this month and, as Obama will remind us on Tuesday, he's accomplished just that. Congress enacted a comprehensive health-care bill and a sweeping reform of how the financial system is regulated. His rescue of the American auto industry worked, foiling predictions that he'd run GM and Chrysler as if they were arms of Chicago's Democratic machine. There are many other legislative and administrative actions that, in normal circumstances, would loom larger if these were not such exceptional -- and difficult -- times.

Yet the challenging nature of the moment does not explain all of the president's struggles. It's true that his accomplishments will have important long-term effects, even if they have not resolved the country's central concern: the continuing sluggishness of the economy.

But Obama and his party are also in a hole because the president has chosen not to engage the nation in an extended dialogue about what holds all of his achievements together, or why his attitude toward government makes more sense than the scattershot conservative attacks on everything Washington might do to improve the nation's lot.

There was a revealing moment in early August when Obama told an audience at a Texas fundraiser: "We have spent the last 20 months governing. They spent the last 20 months politicking." Referring to the impending elections, he added: "Well, we can politick for three months. They've forgotten I know how to politick pretty good."

Obama's mistake is captured by that disdainful reference to "politicking." In a democracy, separating governing from "politicking" is impossible. "Politicking" is nothing less than the ongoing effort to convince free citizens of the merits of a set of ideas, policies and decisions. Voters feel better about politicians who put what they are doing in a compelling context. Citizens can endure setbacks as long as they believe the overall direction of the government's approach is right.

Franklin D. Roosevelt was a genius at offering such reassurances, which is why his fireside chats are the stuff of political legend. Ronald Reagan never stopped campaigning for his conservative vision because he was determined to leave behind a thriving conservative movement. Roosevelt and Reagan both changed the country's underlying philosophical assumptions.

Despite occasional forays into this realm, Obama has created the impression that he is taking things one decision at a time, without a passion for how he would like the country to look in the long run.

He and his party are often defensive when it comes to saying what they really believe: that government, well-executed, is a positive good; that too much economic inequality is both dysfunctional and unjust; that capitalism has never worked without regulation and a strong dose of social insurance. They no longer dare talk about public enterprise, a phrase my friend Chris Matthews reminded me of recently, visible in our great state universities, our best public schools, our road and transit systems, and in the research and development that government finances in areas where there is no immediate profit to be made.

The Obama press office, I know, can send me speeches in which he has made some of these points. But the president's efforts to lay down a consistent rationale, argument and philosophy have been sporadic. He has created a vacuum, filled by the wild charges of Glenn Beck, the disappointment of progressives who emphasize what he hasn't done and the tired "government is always the problem" rhetoric of his mainstream conservative opponents. He has thus left himself and his Democratic allies with weak defenses against a tide of economic melancholy.

It is too late to turn the midterm election into a triumph for the administration but not too late to salvage his party's congressional majorities. Given dismal Democratic expectations, that would now be rated as a victory. But doing so will require Obama to think anew about what "politicking" really means, to pick more than tactical fights with his adversaries, and to lay out, without equivocation or apology, where he is trying to move the country. It's just too bad he didn't start earlier.

College Football Preview: Rankings, Conferences, Etc

2010-08-26T22:22:00.004-04:00

Another college football season is upon us and it is time to dissect a few things: Top 25 Rankings, Conference Previews, and a few more things to look forward to.

TOP 25 (Preseason/Week 1)
1) Alabama (end of 09: 1) vs. San Jose State
2) Ohio State (end of 09: 5) vs. Marshall
3) Boise State (end of 09: 4) vs. #10 Virginia Tech
4) Texas (end of 09: 2) vs. Rice
5) Florida (end of 09: 3) vs. Miami (OH)
6) TCU (end of 09: 7) vs. #24 Oregon State
7) Oklahoma (end of 09: NR) vs. Utah State
8) Nebraska (end of 09: 14) vs. Western Kentucky
9) Iowa (end of 09: 6) vs. Eastern Illinois
10) Virginia Tech (end of 09: 10) vs. #3 Boise State
11) Oregon (end of 09: 11) vs. New Mexico
12) Miami (FL) (end of 09: 18) vs. Florida A&M
13) Wisconsin (end of 09: 16) at UNLV
14) Pittsburgh (end of 09: 15) at Utah
15) Georgia Tech (end of 09: 12) vs. South Carolina State
16) North Carolina (end of 09: NR) vs. #21 LSU
17) Penn State (end of 09: 9) vs. Youngstown State
18) Florida State (end of 09: NR) vs. Samford
19) Arkansas (end of 09: NR) vs. Tennessee Tech
20) USC (end of 09: 21) at Hawaii
21) LSU (end of 09: 17) vs. #16 North Carolina
22) Auburn (end of 09: NR) vs. Arkansas State
23) Georgia (end of 09: NR) vs. LA Lafeyette
24) Oregon State (end of 09: NR) vs. #6 TCU
25) Cincinnati (end of 09: 8) at Fresno State

Dropped out from end of 09: #13 Brigham Young, #19 Utah, #20 Mississippi, #22 Clemson, #23 Texas Tech, #24 West Virginia, #25 Oklahoma State

The next best 5 for Week 1:
West Virginia: vs Coastal Carolina
Utah: vs. Pittsburgh
Stanford: vs. Sacramento State
Houston: vs. Texas State
Connecticut: at Michigan

CONFERENCE PREVIEWS

ACC

ATLANTIC:
Florida State
Boston College
Clemson
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest

COASTAL:
Virginia Tech
Miami (FL)
Georgia Tech
North Carolina
Duke
Virginia

Championship Game: Florida State vs. Virginia Tech/Miami (FL)

Big 12

NORTH:
Nebraska
Kansas State
Missouri
Colorado
Kansas
Iowa State

SOUTH:
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Baylor

Championship Game: Nebraska vs. Texas/Oklahoma

Big East

Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Connecticut
Rutgers
South Florida
Louisville
Syracuse

CHAMPION: Pittsburgh

Big Ten

Ohio State
Iowa
Wisconsin
Penn State
Purdue
Michigan
Minnesota
Michigan State
Northwestern
Illinois
Indiana

CHAMPION: Ohio State

Pac-10

Oregon
USC
Oregon State
Stanford
Arizona
UCLA
Washington
California
Arizona State
Washington State

CHAMPION: Oregon

SEC

EAST:
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt

WEST:
Alabama
Arkansas
LSU
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State

Championship Game: Florida vs. Alabama (but don't sleep on either Georgia, Arkansas, or Auburn)

Conference USA: East Carolina vs. Houston in Championship Game

Mountain West: TCU

MAC: Ohio/Temple vs. Ball State

Sun Belt: Troy or Florida Atlantic

WAC: Boise State

AND Lastly, a little preview regarding the Heisman race.

Players to watch as the season progresses:

HB Mark Ingram (Alabama): Returning winner playing with defensing national champions

QB Tyrelle Pryor (Ohio State): He looks to be ready for a break out season with a national championship contender team

QB Kellen Moore (Boise State): He had 39 TDs to 3 INTS a year ago. This year could be a repeat and he has the chance to lead his team to a potential title game.

QB Ryan Mallet (Arkansas): He is a mobile quarterback, who can lead Arkansas to the SEC title game and championship this year.

QB Jake Locker (Washington): He does not play for the best team in the country, but if he can get them close to a Pac-10 crown; he can stay in the conversation.

QB Case Keenum (Houston): He had an awesome year statically last year and could do the same again. His fortunes will depend on how well the team plays. They faltered down the stretch as did his Heisman hopes.

This year looks to be an exciting season with no true clear cut best team ala last year. Alabama and Ohio State are probably early favorites, but as college football has shown; top 5 teams will lose at some point.

5 Myths Regarding the 2010 Midterm Elections

2010-08-17T23:23:00.004-04:00

Media is a 24/7 news cycle. Thus it is often hard to sometimes decipher what is fact and what is fiction. Pundits, whether neutral or not, will say various things. Sometimes they are accurate and other times voters change the script on them and they look foolish. With that said, I came across another great top 5 myths list. This one pertains to the 2010 Midterm Elections. They bring the elections and 2010 into a better perspective before people start to get ahead of themselves.

That list is:

1) Midterm votes foretell future election results:

Midterm elections are largely determined by short-term factors, including the popularity of the president and the state of the economy. As a result, they rarely indicate anything about longer-term trends, and they have no value in predicting the results of the subsequent presidential and congressional elections. Presidents whose parties have suffered major midterm losses -- such as Harry Truman in 1946, Ronald Reagan in 1982 and Bill Clinton in 1994 -- have gone on to win reelection easily two years later. So even if Republicans make major gains in 2010, as is widely expected, it won't tell us anything about what will happen in 2012. That said, presidential elections often predict midterms. For one thing, the president's party almost always loses seats in the midterms. And if a president's election provided major coattails -- big gains for his party in Congress -- his party tends to lose more seats than usual in the next midterm elections. But even here, there are exceptions. Although Clinton was elected president in 1992 with negative coattails (Democrats lost nine House seats that year), his party still suffered a massive loss of 54 seats in the House and eight in the Senate in the 1994 midterm vote. Later, Clinton's second midterm election, in 1998, was one of only three in the past century in which the president's party actually gained House seats. In 2008, the Democrats picked up 21 seats in the House, having just gained 30 seats in the 2006 midterms. It is exceedingly rare for a party to have gains that large in two consecutive elections -- and unprecedented to have a third big gain in a row. So even as Republicans reeled in humiliation after their rivals' landslide victory in 2008, they might have taken comfort in the prospect of a sharp comeback in 2010.

2) It's an anti-incumbent year:

We hear this almost every time midterm elections come along at a time of widespread voter discontent. But even when voters seem very unhappy, the vast majority of incumbents in both parties are reelected. Despite Congress's low approval ratings this year, only a handful of incumbents have lost their primaries, and there were peculiar reasons for several of those defeats. While a second round of incumbents is likely to lose seats in November, it is unlikely that more than 10 percent of lawmakers will be ousted. Even in 1974, which was the worst midterm for incumbents in the past 50 years, 87.7 percent of Congress won reelection. Voters are highly selective in voting out incumbents in the general election -- even when polls suggest that they are eager to boot all the rascals and clean house, they rarely follow through. The incumbents who do lose in a given midterm tend to come overwhelmingly from the president's party. In 1994, during Clinton's presidency, only Democratic incumbents lost; in 2006, during George W. Bush's second term, only Republican incumbents lost. This year it is likely that almost all of the incumbent casualties will be Democrats.

3) The president's message is crucial:

In fact, his message has little effect on midterm elections. If voters are unhappy with the president and the economy is bad, even a great communicator such as Reagan can do little to prevent significant losses by his party. The same is true for presidential advisers. Karl Rove looked like a genius in 2002 because Bush was still enjoying strong public approval in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Four years later, in 2006, Rove didn't look so smart when voters took out their dissatisfaction with the president and the Iraq war on Republican congressional candidates. Of course, some individual seats will always be affected by the president's message. And in a year when the difference between Democrats losing 35 or 40 House seats is the difference between having Speaker Nancy Pelosi or Speaker John Boehner, every district matters. But overall, there is probably little that Obama can say or do in the next couple of months to change the broad outcome of this year's elections. The die has already been cast.

4) It's always about the economy:

Not always. A down economy generally makes the president's party look bad and contributes to significant losses by that party in the midterms. But a poor economy does not automatically mean electoral disaster -- and a strong economy does not guarantee good results, particularly if voters are concerned about other problems, such as scandals or wars. In 1966, for instance, the economy was booming, but Democrats suffered big losses in the midterm elections, in part because voters were unhappy with President Lyndon Johnson's handling of the Vietnam War and his response to domestic unrest, and in part because the pendulum was simply swinging back toward the middle after big Democratic gains in 1964. In 2006, the economy was in decent shape, but growing opposition to Bush's conduct of the war in Iraq and high-profile Republican congressional scandals contributed to big GOP losses. In 1982, unemployment was at 10.8 percent as the midterms neared, and conventional wisdom said Reagan's Republicans were done for. Republicans did lose 26 of the 33 House seats they had gained in 1980 -- but they gained a seat in the Senate. This year, however, the economy may trump all. Thanks to the economic collapse, the bailouts of fat cats that followed, and stubbornly sluggish growth and high unemployment, it's once again the economy, stupid.

5) Midterms provide mandates:

To the degree that voting results in congressional districts around the country add up to any unified message, it is a judgment on the party in power -- and usually a negative one at that. But the winning party, aided by a media that wants to dramatize election results, tends to spin this judgment as a sign of public support for its policy goals. If they win big in November, Republicans will no doubt argue that they have received a mandate to pursue their agenda -- and more important, to block or even try to reverse the president's agenda. Democrats similarly claimed their own mandate when they recaptured Congress in 2006. But such declarations can backfire: After their big win in 1994, congressional Republicans, led by Newt Gingrich, acted as if the president were irrelevant and they were in charge of the government. That gave Clinton an opportunity to portray the Republicans as arrogant and extreme, and it ultimately contributed to his easy reelection in 1996. If Republicans make the same mistake in 2011 -- and already, some House Republicans are talking seriously about cutting off funding for the health-care overhaul and parts of the Wall Street reform plan passed this year -- the public reaction is likely to be the same as it was in 1995, when the GOP-engineered shutdown of the government caused a huge backlash against Gingrich and his party. That would make Obama the big winner of the 2010 midterm elections.

No Victory Laps for the Democrats

2010-08-17T00:20:00.005-04:00

After November 2008, Democrats' spirits were at a high as they not only had the U.S. Congress in their control, but had just regained the Presidency after 8 years. However, as the 2010 Midterm Elections near; Democrats are not running victory laps, but simply running away.

Outgoing Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT) might have summed it up best: "Democrats don't know how to celebrate."

The 111th Congress saw many major pieces legislation processed under their watch. Legislation that will shape the country for many years to come is a mere afterthought for many Democrats this year. Normally, you would think that a party with multiple achievements would be on the offensive, but that has not been the Democrats' style and play defense instead on those major decisions over the last two years.

With a less than three months until Election Day, things are not stacking up especially well for the Democrats.

Under Obama's guidance, this Congress has passed: the $787 billion stimulus package, health care reform, anti-age discrimination law, tobacco regulation, expansion of community service, credit card consumer protection, Pentagon contracting changes, tax cuts, and Wall Street/financial regulation. Minus items like climate change and immigration, the agenda of Congressional Democrats and President Obama has been tackled despite the bitter partisanship in the nation's capital. The victories looked like strictly party line votes, but were very much hard fought. Health care reform alone would rival anything since Lyndon Johnson's administration and the 1960s and his Great Society.

Senate Republicans like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell wishes he had the numbers to prevent health care reform, financial reform, the stimulus, and many other "harmful" Democratic bills. Since "they forced the legislation" on the public, their "arrogance" will lead to their downfall this November.

Any neutral or sensible political observer could see that the Republicans were successful in shaping the argument and perception on multiple issues and items throughout the last year and a half. The Democrats have scrambled to project the positive successes they have to the public and that is why there is so real celebrating as voters will ultimately determine their fate and the fate of this Congress. Not helping Democrats is their fractious nature with the left fighting the center and the left angry certain legislation has not been past yet.

The uncertain nature of today's times due to the economy and job causes many to worry about their futures. Largely, the legislation past will not be felt until 2012 or later depending on certain aspects of legislative initiatives. Obama and the Democrats hope to get "one more lap" before the election to past legislation for small businesses and others greatly affected by the recession.

History is the harshest and most honest judge. History is too far off from today though. Hence why Democrats continue to sprint and scramble instead of frolicking around with their hands in the air after passing groundbreaking bills.

NFL Preseason Preview: NFC West/AFC West

2010-08-04T22:24:00.003-04:00

NFC WEST:

Arizona Cardinals: The team had another good year and followed their Super Bowl run in 2008 with another playoff run in 2009 with a 10-6 regular season record before losing to the New Orleans Saints in the divisional round game that featured little defense and a lot of offense. QB Kurt Warner is gone and there remains much uncertainty if QB Matt Leinart can replace him. WR Larry Fitzgerald is a still a freak, but WR Anquan Boldin is gone and in Baltimore. HBs Chris "Beanie" Wells and Tim Hightower might be asked to do too much in the wake of poor quarterback play. Their defense is still a work in progress despite some improvements, but the loss of SS Antrell Rolle might cause a setback.

San Francisco 49ers: The still young 49ers finished at 8-8 as they are beginning to show signs that they might return to the top of the division as soon as this year due to the even nature of the division. Plus, repeating their 2009 record might be enough. Figuring out who will be the starting quarterback continues to plague the team with QB Alex Smith probably leading the field for now. TE Vernon Davis has responded greatly to Head Coach Mike Singletary's comments. It might be their up and coming defense that brings them back to the postseason. LB Patrick Willis might become the Ray Lewis of his generation and it has only taken a few years for him to garner that type of dominance.

St. Louis Rams: The Rams have experience a tough three year stretch as they went 1-15 last year and have won 6 games in three years. Drafting QB Sam Bradford might change their fortunes as during the last three years HB Steven Jackson has been asked to carry the brunt of the load. He has had to play injured, but Bradford and the potential big play ability of young guys like WR Donnie Avery might reignite their offense. Just as important for this upcoming year is the continued improvement on defense. There is greater pressure from the front seven as they have used a combo of youth and experience.

Seattle Seahawks: After a string of playoff appearances and division titles, they struggled again in 2009 going 5-11. QB Matt Hasselback's health continues to be a repeating question and the acquisition of QB Charlie Whitehurst from San Diego might spark some quarterback controversy. New head coach, Pete Carroll, might provide a necessary surge of energy from his coaching days at USC. They probably had one of the best drafts this year, which includes first rounds OT Russell Okung out of Oklahoma State and SS Earl Thomas out of Texas. One cannot expect them to struggle for a third year in a row.

OUTLOOK: The NFC West has been labeled lately the worst division in the NFL. Going 8-8 will likely be enough to win the division. Without Kurt Warner in Arizona, the playing is very much even. The Cardinals will see a difference without Warner and struggle. The Seahawks also have questions at the quarterback position, but if healthy Hasselback will be the best quarterback in the division. The Rams with Bradford should be able to equal the same win total of the last three years. But, it is the 49ers that just might have the right mix to slip by the other three and win the division. Division games will be utmost importance more than ever this year.

AFC WEST:

Denver Broncos: The Broncos finished their season at 8-8 and had another let down of a year. QB Kyle Orton did better than some expected in the wake of trading QB Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears. Now, this offseason, they traded WR Brandon Marshall to the Miami Dolphins. WRs like Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Lloyd will asked to carry more of the load now. Defensively, they have DE/LB Elvis Dumervil, who keeps getting better. Some of the behind the scenes issues might slow the progress of the team and its playoff chances.

Kansas City Chiefs: They stumbled to a 4-12 record, but draftee S Eric Berry might solve some of their defensive woes. They have had early picks the last few years and might be about to take the next step with all that talent. New leadership and ownership has infused guys like LB Mike Vrabel to go along with WR Dwayne Bowe. QB Matt Cassell did not deliver as expected in 2009 after his surprising 2008 in New England, but tends to manage the game well, which might be enough in several games with the mix of talent.

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders continued their losing ways going 5-11, but might be ready to turn the corner now that QB JaMarcus Russell is gone. HB Darren McFadden started to show flashes of his Arkansas self last year and drafting LB Ronaldo McClain from Alabama might be one of their best picks in recent memory. Their defense took a step backwards last year and will need to regain the mix of run and pass defense that made them tough to score on in 2008 again in 2010 to potentially win the AFC West.

San Diego Chargers: The started slow again in 2009 before running off a win streak during the second half that led to a 13-3 record. However, their playoff woes continued with a division round loss to the New York Jets. HB LaDanian Tomlinson is out and draftee HB Ryan Mathews will be expected to fill his shoes fast. QB Phillip Rivers continues to heave the ball everywhere, but the uneven health of TE Antonio Gates has slowed the offense. Two holdouts, OT Marcus McNeil and WR Vincent Jackson, might hinder the Chargers' chances of repeating in what is otherwise a weak division. Both are crucial elements of the offense and likely will be out for the first few games if not longer.

OUTLOOK: The division again looks like San Diego's to lose. Denver will be better, but their offense will struggle at times without a target like Marshall to throw to. Oakland could show some signs of improvement, but getting to .500 might not be enough. The same thing could probably be said for Kansas City as their inexperience will cost them at times. That leaves the Chargers, who will likely take a step back, but will have enough to repeat in the division under Rivers' leadership and a tough front seven that confuses great quarterbacks like Peyton Manning.

NFL Preseason Preview: NFC South/AFC South

2010-08-03T21:43:00.004-04:00

NFC SOUTH:

Atlanta Falcons: The falcons were able to finish last year at 9-7 and give their franchise their first back-to-back winning seasons. However, unlike in 2008, they failed to make the postseason. QB Matt Ryan continues to grow into a franchise quarterback and HB Michael Turner when healthy gives their offense a killer punch. WR Roddy White had a breakout year in 2009 and should follow it up this year as he will serve as Ryan's main target. And, the always reliable, TE Tony Gonzalez continues to play at a high level providing a security blanket for Ryan. There are some holes on defense at linebacker and at times in their backfield. The team has the right mix of talent now to overtake the Saints in the division and the two meetings between the two could very likely flip the division in favor of one or the other.

Carolina Panthers: The finished 8-8 last year and 2010 looks to be a slight bit of a transition year. DE Julius Peppers is gone and their defense will reflect his absence. QB Jake Delhomme is in Cleveland, but was on a downward progression. Likely, QB Matt Moore will be give the starting role, but draftee QB Jimmy Clausen out of Notre Dame could replace him during the season at any point. Both seem to lack certain intangibles expected at that position. WR Steve Smith might have seen his better days pass him by as he is starting to even act up in training camp. LB Jon Beason is a bright spot on the team as he is developing into one of the top linebackers in the NFL. There is a good chance that John Fox is in his last year and there could be speculations of his future and the team's that hurt them at times this year.

New Orleans Saints: The team started 13-0 before stumping down the stretch to finish 13-3. They quickly regroup in playoffs as they ran a miracle streak to their first Super Bowl with a victory over the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV. QB Drew Brees and Head Coach Sean Payton have paved a bright future for the franchise. HB Pierre Thomas became a hidden gem and will asked to repeat his performance of last year as HB Reggie Bush continues to struggle to be an every down type of back. Brees finds ways to get the ball to multiple targets. The defense also steps up their play from past years and spurred the team during off weeks for the offense. Guys like SS Darren Sharper and LB Jonathan Vilma will continue to set the tone for the squad. Sharper is a bit banged up, but still very good. DE Will Smith has also increased his productivity. It will be very tough to repeat, but repeating as division champions is very likely. Atlanta will test them even more than last year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs struggled last year to a 3-13 record under a new head coach and new quarterback. There were many lessons learned from closing games to not turning the ball over. QB Josh Freeman showed signs of brilliance and can grow from his lumps last year. The young nucleus will come back this year with another year of experience and improve on their record. The old regime is all, but gone with the exception of CB Ronde Barber, who still plays at a high level after more than a decade in the league. DT Gerard McCoy will be expected to the be the type of player Warren Sapp was for them for years. HB Cadillac Williams is also shows signs of improving. Their young nucleus will show up in losses, but will play off in a couple years.

OUTLOOK: Expect the Bucs to struggle again with a chance to double their win total. The Panthers will experience some growing pains and likely finish below .500 as well. That leaves Atlanta and New Orleans to battle for the division. The Falcons under Ryan have been tough to beat at home and Brees and the Saints in the SuperDome have been equally as tough. The team's December meeting likely will establish the likely winner of the division. That meeting happens to be in New Orleans, which gives the Saints the edge. They will lose a couple more games while Atlanta will win a couple more, which is why tiebreakers will be as crucial as anything in this division. Saints ultimately edge out Falcons as Atlanta might be one more year away from passing New Orleans. However, both squads go to postseason.

AFC SOUTH:

Houston Texans: They tend to be the trendy upset pick for a postseason birth in recent years. They had their best season finish at 9-7, but still missed the postseason. Their offense has continued to grow under QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson. The running back position has been experiencing some high turnover and not much is known about HB Arian Foster. If their defense can improve to match their offense, they might be able to effectively challenge the Indianapolis Colts and win the division. DE Mario Williams has proven to be the player they expected with the top pick in 2006 and is a cornerstone of their defense as it looks to improve with LBs Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans behind him. Their secondary might ultimately hurt them in the end.

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts fell short in the Super Bowl to the Saints after a very good 14-2 year. They ultimately took off the last two weeks of the regular season to rest for the postseason and came off rusty at times. QB Peyton Manning still sets the pace for the team. He was able to allow WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie to flourish in the offense by season's end while using his dependable target TE Dallas Clark to both the ball. The health of the team often acts as a secondary pace setter after Manning. A key injured Colt in recent seasons has been FS Bob Sanders. He will likely use his body and that will potentially lead to him not finishing another season. But, the front line led by DE Dwight Freeney continues to put pressure on offenses. They will have to focus more on stopping the run to repeat their 2009 success. One might expect a couple unknown players to emerge again this year as the team as dependable as the sun rising every day.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The team fell off a bit last year going 7-9. They are rather bland, but with guys like HB Maurice Jones-Drew; they normally don't roll over. However, it seemed at times in 2009; they lacked the same passion of previous years under Head Coach Jack Del Rio. WR Mike Sims-Walker is looking to repeat his breakout year of 2009 and allow the team to create a balanced offensive attack. Their defense needs to show signs of improvement and the team missed on a couple opportunities in the draft to improve. Nonetheless, they tend to play the top team in the division, the Colts, very close and that will be important again if they have any chance of winning the division.

Tennessee Titans: After a rough start at 0-6, they finished at 8-8 largely due to the combo of QB Vince Young and HB Chris Johnson, who ran for over 2,000 yards last year. The offensive tandem will need repeat their second halves in order for the team to improve on last year. Big targets like WRs Nate Washington and Kenny Britt can allow Young to grow as a passer as Johnson can act as a dual threat for opposing defenses. Their front line on defense actually looked better without DT Albert Haynesworth, who underachieved in his first year in Washington.

OUTLOOK: This division still looks like the Colts to lose. The Titans, Jaguars, and Texans will all battle for an above .500 record. Jacksonville looks like the most flawed of the three at the moment. Houston's defense and Tennessee's lack of a balanced offense will make it tough for them to pass the Colts. Don't expect a 14-2 record and the health will also shift things a bit. If they can stay healthy or manage the potential injuries that have arisen in recent seasons, they will continue their divisional dominance.

Five Myths about the Bush Tax Cuts

2010-08-02T23:09:00.004-04:00

As the November midterm elections near closer, one of the top discussion issues has been what to do with the Bush Era Tax Cuts that will expire come December 31, 2010. Some want them all to expire. Some want only the cuts to the wealthy ($200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples) to expire. And, some want all the cuts to be extended whether they are permanent or temporary.

Throughout the discussion, there have been many points thrown around. Some might be true and some might be stretches of the truth. The Washington Post did an excellent look at some of the myths that are put out there in the media.

The five myths:

1) Extending the tax cuts would be a good way to stimulate the economy:

As a stimulus measure, a one- or two-year extension has one thing going for it -- it would be a big intervention and would provide at least some boost to the economy. But a good stimulus policy can't just be big; it should also offer a lot of bang for the buck. That is, each dollar of government spending or tax cuts should have the largest possible effect on the economy. According to the Congressional Budget Office and other authorities, extending all of the Bush tax cuts would have a small bang for the buck, the equivalent of a 10- to 40-cent increase in GDP for every dollar spent. Why? As the CBO notes, most Bush tax cut dollars go to higher-income households, and these top earners don't spend as much of their income as lower earners. In fact, of 11 potential stimulus policies the CBO recently examined, an extension of all of the Bush tax cuts ties for lowest bang for the buck. (The CBO did not examine the high-income tax cuts separately, but the logic it used suggests that extending those cuts alone would have even less value.) The government could more effectively stimulate the economy by letting the high-income tax cuts expire and using the money for aid to the states, extensions of unemployment insurance benefits and tax credits favoring job creation. Dollar for dollar, each of these measures would have about three times the impact on GDP as continuing the Bush tax cuts.

2) Allowing the high-income tax cuts to expire would hurt small businesses:

One of the most common objections to letting the cuts expire for those in the highest tax brackets is that it would hurt small businesses. As Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) recently put it, allowing the cuts to lapse would amount to "a job-killing tax hike on small business during tough economic times." This claim is misleading. If, as proposed, the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire for the highest earners, the vast majority of small businesses will be unaffected. Less than 2 percent of tax returns reporting small-business income are filed by taxpayers in the top two income brackets -- individuals earning more than about $170,000 a year and families earning more than about $210,000 a year. And just as most small businesses aren't owned by people in the top income brackets, most people in the top income brackets don't rely mainly on small-business income: According to the Tax Policy Center, such proceeds make up a majority of income for about 40 percent of households in the top income bracket and a third of households in the second-highest bracket. If the objective is to help small businesses, continuing the Bush tax cuts on high-income taxpayers isn't the way to go -- it would miss more than 98 percent of small-business owners and would primarily help people who don't make most of their money off those businesses.

3. Making the tax cuts permanent will lead to long-term growth:

A main selling point for the cuts was that, by offering lower marginal tax rates on wages, dividends and capital gains, they would encourage investment and therefore boost economic growth. But when it comes to fostering growth, this isn't the whole story. The tax cuts also raised government debt -- and higher government debt leads to higher interest rates. If estimates of this relationship -- by former Bush Council of Economic Advisers chair Glenn Hubbard and Federal Reserve economist Eric Engen, and byoutgoing Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag and myself -- are accurate, then the tax cuts have raised the cost of making new investments. As the economy recovers and private borrowing rises, the upward pressure on interest rates is likely to grow even stronger. I have used standard growth and investment formulas to calculate that the overall effect of the Bush tax cuts on economic growth has therefore been negative -- and it will continue to be negative if the cuts are extended.

4) The Bush tax cuts are the main cause of the budget deficit:

Although the cuts were large and drove revenue down sharply, they are not the main cause of the sizable deficit that exists today. In 2007, well after the tax cuts took effect, the budget deficit stood at 1.2 percent of GDP. By 2009, it had increased to 9.9 percent of the economy. The Bush tax cuts didn't change between 2007 and 2009, so clearly something else is to blame. The main culprit was the recession -- and the responses it inspired. As the economy shrank, tax revenue plummeted. The cost of the bank bailouts and stimulus packages further added to the deficit. In fact, an analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities indicates that the Bush tax cuts account for only about 25 percent of the deficit this year.

5) Continuing the tax cuts won't doom the long-term fiscal picture; entitlements are the real problem:

One theory holds that the country's long-term budget shortfall is "just" an entitlements problem, the result of rising costs associated with growing Social Security rolls and increased health-care spending (via Medicare and Medicaid). Republicans like this idea because it plays down tax increases as a potential solution. Democrats like it because it makes the recent health-care package seem like even more of a triumph. But it just isn't true. The deficits we face over the next decade reflect a fundamental imbalance between spending and revenue, one that goes beyond entitlements. Based on projections by the CBO, Alan Auerbach of the University of California at Berkeley and myself, among others, even if the economy returns to full employment by 2014 and stays there for the rest of the decade, the continuation of current fiscal policies, including the Bush tax cuts, would lead to a national debt in the range of 90 percent of GDP by 2020. That's already the highest rate since just after World War II -- and Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security aren't expected to hit their steepest spending increases until after 2020. According to these same projections, the yearly deficit would rise to 6 to 7 percent of GDP by 2020. The Bush tax cuts would account for a significant chunk of this, considering that in each year they are in effect, the revenue lost because of them amounts to nearly 2 percent of GDP. Compounding the problem: By increasing the government's debt, the tax cuts have already led to higher interest payments on that debt. So even if all of the cuts expire on Dec. 31, we will still be paying for them for years to come.